Jersey Andrew

But last year and this year the long range ensembles modeled monster snowfall. This season already overachieved in my book but this was supposed to be an awesome pattern.

I think it was SREF that came out of the Jan. 25,2000 forecast debacle.

Is there any chance of a Boxing Day blizzard error like occurred in 2010 when models brought storm back late?

I have heard three feet of snow fell in NOVA in 1772 storm. Wonder how 2010 and 2016 compared with 28 inches in many areas and 32 at Dulles.

Does this storm really have that potential or is it a model fantasy? What do the mets think of as an analog if any?

The 96 blizzard was the first big storm of the Internet era. PTRAVEL and SNONUT on AOL dial up giving the model rundown. I could not believe the 2 foot forecast for NOVA even though I had vague memories of February 1983. Bob Ryan was the go to guy back then on Channel 4 and I was blown away by the 18-24 graphic never seen before.

Fairfax missed two weeks after January 1996. Never thought any storm could beat that but February 2010 did and January 2016. We complain about lack of big storms but certainly have had our share.

Is any analog showing up for this storm? Some combo of ‘79, ‘83, 2003 will do.

Were the Euro ensembles doing long term runs back in 2010? Would be interested if that mammoth month was forecasted.

Does the pattern show any similarities to January 1994? Seriously doubt DCA goes below zero but ice storms we have not seen since then to that degree.

January 1994 was an amazing month with two nasty ice storms and record cold. Last day DCA was below zero. I was a sophomore in high school and remember our driveway was a skating rink and Dad could not get car out.

If I remember correctly it was the JMA that first sniffed out the 2006 storm. Thundersnow and foot of snow here in NOVA. It was a lucky break in otherwise uneventful winter.

As modeled gives the Knickerbocker Storm a run for its money. DCA will never measure over 20 inches though but a 30” anywhere in District would be mind boggling.

This was the winter we were expecting last year but a year delayed. Absolutely incredible that almost all Mets and forecasts proofed this winter wrong. I’m not saying we are headed for a blend of 1995-96 and 2009-2010 but just thinking about possibility is very exciting!

Does this storm have an analog?