RIC_WX

Nothing against Davis. Deep Creek is like Leesburg west. We have quite the extended social network here. My kiddos find WISP plenty intimidating and neither the wife nor I are really capable to ski. We are from RIC after all, no one in our xennial cohort grew up skiing.

If you can put in a little sweat equity and have patience you might be able to get away with about half that investment but it won’t come quickly. Land is really affordable if you don’t have a lake view / lake access, but I would not invest what you’ve been quoted unless I had a proper lot to build it on. Happy to compare notes in PM if interested on what I built in 20-21 in Swanton.

If you are buying the land this year and expect a cabin next year, you better get hustling. Ain’t nothing moving fast at the lake. Ask me how I know.

2000 looms large Maybe a every other month flip starting with November? would be a punting of february with a return in March, almost certainly favoring DC and points west vs. the south and east jackpot zones observed at least earlier in January, and potentally later this week.

That’s a nasty curve on a sunny day. My place is a half mile up N Glade from there.

Between LaVale and Finzel the entire world changes in a few miles

Cameras looking good at my place. Enjoy!

17.9 / 3 Leesburg 12.5 / 2.3 Swanton Like my children. It’s in the teens.

Well its about time. I am sure we'll find a path to warm up and rain in time for my return next weekend.

This whole thing could be a rainstorm. But all I know is if the track was perfect 72+ hours out, no one would believe we are locked in.

Another gutter flusher today. I don’t know how they escape flood warnings there is water everywhere you look and every stream is at its bank. I guess everything reverts to frozen brick status overnight. I went from 26*at 6AM to 42* by 8:30 this morning. I now see the other side of the mountains held the CAD most of the day.

11/6 Swanton. Windy AF, in the negative single digits consistently. Upslope cranking with the sun trying to shine through. We did not hit the high end totals here but too windy to be confident in any measurement. I am estimating around 6". No doubt much heavier totals close by in WV, this was their event if you ask me. Bonus, for the first time all season it feels like legit deep winter here.

4 hours in and being generous...only about 2.5" here. Radar looks super juicy to the SW but at the speed this is moving, we need some 1" per hour rates or we are not going to meet potential here. Wind is 0.0. Dead calm. How often you see that during precip here?

Swanton 23/21. SN About 1.5" so far, but picked up in the last hour

26/16 now with SN-

Thank you. I am glad you enjoyed Monday back east, where I got fringed at JYO. Looking forward to a better outcome this time.

28/12 Swanton, Cloudy. Radar starting to fill in here but air is too dry. Winds have slacked off considerably since about 10A or so. First WSW at this location. LFG!

No end to the rain train in sight. My PWS here, 1.26” and counting. https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDSWANT20

Imagine if history repeated itself darn near 20 years to the day.

I would bet January has at least one stretch that relative to average, is an order of magnitude bad beyond anything we have seen so far. January 1950 / 2002 style. Some years are just this way, and a lot of signs this is one of them. This sure seems like a less bold prediction that winter somehow snaps back with a vengeance in the second half. The rotten pattern is remarkably stable. Only positive I see is it locked in early and with a little luck it relents somewhat that we could manage a decent finish in February / March. Somewhat difficult to imagine current pattern sustaining itself that long, but equally difficult to see it breaking down anytime soon.

Don't worry. If winter fails there is always spring. Today it's kinda hard to tell the difference. I could see March being the snowiest month of the winter here (and elsewhere).

Appears the temperature rises above freezing on Friday AM and may remain there for...? I feel terrible for WISP as next week is basically make or break for the season. I am sure they would rather flush the first 2 weeks of January compared to the last week of December, given the chance.

12Z GEFS continues to trend warmer in the medium range (next week) and has more or less eliminated the modest cold anomalies previously indicated for NE that maybe could have expanded and bled south. Irrespective of what the long range progs suggest here, the pattern out west remains remarkably stable through the end of the run.

The Garrett crowd concurs here for sure. :-)

Zonal flow would set up, not an illogical way out of the present mess. But I don't think we would like the outcome much better.