RIC_WX

She's a soaker in Leesburg. 1.56" and backbuilding. 35* Looks more white than wet in Swanton, probably all frozen from this point forward and going to stick around awhile. 30*

39/23 Leesburg 30/16 DCL Swanton Hoping they keep power at the lake but not super optimstic. I turn the water off when I am not there but wasn't really prepared to have pipes freeze if the outage is extended.

Please correct if wrong, but from a purely climo POV high impact all ZR events at DCL are more rare than locations where CAD is climatologically favored. Meaning, 9/10 times I see ZR in the zones for Garrett, it turns out to be PL/SN or nothing at all. Noting these things seem to occur as a seasonal trend, and pointing out there was 24 hours of ZR / freezing fog at DCL just this past weekend (forecast verified), and it was anything but a high impact event there (WWA maybe didn't entirely verify). That said, it did get me wondering about all those depictions of mid level warm air being more than just a modeling anamoly vs. maybe a hint of a sesonal trend (hoping not).

It was 1989 for sure

The low temps have been mild though. We just aren't seeing much in the way of range.

30.5 at Deep Creek ended up beating Saturday night and we had frost too. Full sun and back up to 54* now. Colors at / near peak most everywhere

32 at Deep Creek. Wind picked up after midnight and the temperature spiked on 3 occasions to almost 36 and then settled back to 32 each time. Still a nice coating of frost. Crystal blue skies this morning 10/10.

34/32 now here. We are going to freeze good. Winds are decoupled and it otherwise feels like winter here. Drove in this morning along new Germany road and savage river forest, if that area isn’t peak color it’s damn close. Color is pretty nice this year.

46* Deep Creek, 73* Leesburg. Looking forward to the excellent fall conditions this weekend.

Freeze watch posted Garrett county

Last nights 38* and several more forecast in the 40's for the week to come will get things moving in a hurry I think. Either way, has me motivated to sweep my chimney and get ready for woodstove season in a few short weeks. Beautiful today but too chilly/windy to zoom outside.

Signed up for the IAD 10K run on Oct 1. Would prefer to have that SLP somewhere else. Fortunately we have another 38 chances for the solution to change.

Last year the holidays were warmer in absolute terms (50’s for days) than 2021 Memorial Day weekend at DCL (43*F the whole time) and that was a bona fide fact. No matter how many more years I got that is a feat I am betting won’t repeat. I literally slept Memorial Day weekend next to a kerosene heater and Christmas it was too warm to burn the wood stove without raising the windows. I would really like to avoid that this year.

My POV is that a slightly AN February is far more likely to produce snow than a slightly BN December. Nina climo here strongly suggests a cold/dry warm/wet coupling. It’s been pretty tough to get snow in December regardless the past decade or so. 2010 is maybe the best example I can remember that would work everything out and is a year some have mentioned but was not referenced in this particular outlook.

Thanks for sharing and good luck with your outlook. I am perplexed somewhat with the 2002 primary analog given the precipitation patterns from that era vs. today with respect to occurant weather. Also noteworthy on the mild December call as it seems to be at odds with the early consensus forecasts. I suspect you are counting on late season snowfall, potentially even in March to achieve these totals? A +1 December isn’t getting it done and a cold January would be suppressed it would seem.

Our sources say no.

There is a lot less summertime haze / air pollution now than I remember from this era, which is presumably thanks to emission controls of all kinds but predominately from less coal burning for electricity generation.

2.67" overnight in Leesburg, rained hard enough overnight to wake me up. Wet 24 hours for me, ended up with 1.25" at Deep Creek yesterday before heading out.

1” and counting at DCL. Western highlands cashing in today, unfortunately a total wipe out for outdoor Labor Day activities.

Siting of your chimney will be super important. We had to raise ours and install a purpose built wind resistant cap after the first storm filled my cabin with smoke - it blew furiously back down the chimney - to the point I aborted the fire and threw flaming logs out the door into the snow. It turned out ok in the end, but a learning experience and somewhat shocking how little the supposed experts (my chimney was professionally installed by the only outlet here I could find to do it) know about solving this problem. I fully recognize most of us are up here for the snow and cold but the wind is what comes with it and it has been our nemesis on several fronts. I have to believe your location is as least as exposed as I am.

Looks like you are in an awesome spot. First time you spend a night up there in a winter storm, the wind is gonna knock your socks off. I hope you are a sound sleeper.

My PWS every so briefly touched 90* for the first time and then quickly reset to something a bit more typical

Up at Deep Creek. Winds steady in the 20’s gusting to near 40. With full leaf out, this is an under rated event here. 78/64

They made a post on FB yesterday that the section of trail between Leesburg and Ivermere Dr had 50 fallen trees and took 24 hours to fully reopen the trail after Thursdays storms. Supposedly some of the worst damage ever recorded.

Leesburg Hail video https://www.youtube.com/shorts/PEvmZFehkKA