RIC_WX

Many of the shutout years in the data set are followed by climo or climo+ seasons. I guess there are exceptions to everything but at this point I would think we are better off without any attempt at recovering this year. It does seem like the shutout years are at least as common as the blockbuster years and we’re clearly overdue for a good one.

I mean, I am on pace to burn 2 full cords of firewood and most days nobody is even there. Biggest problem is keeping it dry. Last 12" snowfall for Deep Creek? last weekend of March 2022. Warm winters end cold and no reason to think '23 is ending any differently.

Shhhh no one needs to know even if the snowfall has been meh-tastic, winter overall has been ok at deep creek so far and would actually be remembered pretty fondly if the pattern eventually flips to a favorable finish for all. I realize this is blasphemy but...

It was the second coldest day of my life and unquestionably the most intense wx conditions I have seen at Deep Creek by a factor of 2-3x. Genuinely wish more of the folks here got to see it, it was like spending the day at the North Pole.

This is pretty close to what the models were splitting out for Garrett yesterday for this time. Ignore the wind readings as anemometer is broken. Legit upslope here, winter doesn’t get much deeper than this.

Now 21*. My anemometer is frozen but I would speculate there have been gusts well over into the 40’s. Hard to keep the smoke going up the chimney.

Blizzard conditions developing at Deep Creek. 26* and falling rapidly.

It will be a bona fide glacier tomorrow. Lake should be rather solid by early week as well, big change from the holidays last year.

Forecast for Deep Creek shows temperature of 37* at 4AM tomorrow, descending to -6* by 12 or 1PM, and remaining largely steady until sometime Saturday morning.

Easily a fresh 2” in Swanton but the occasional pillow sized snowflakes suggest a warm layer somewhere close by. 26/25 on the temps, beautiful morning.

Feels like deep winter this morning

She's a soaker in Leesburg. 1.56" and backbuilding. 35* Looks more white than wet in Swanton, probably all frozen from this point forward and going to stick around awhile. 30*

39/23 Leesburg 30/16 DCL Swanton Hoping they keep power at the lake but not super optimstic. I turn the water off when I am not there but wasn't really prepared to have pipes freeze if the outage is extended.

Please correct if wrong, but from a purely climo POV high impact all ZR events at DCL are more rare than locations where CAD is climatologically favored. Meaning, 9/10 times I see ZR in the zones for Garrett, it turns out to be PL/SN or nothing at all. Noting these things seem to occur as a seasonal trend, and pointing out there was 24 hours of ZR / freezing fog at DCL just this past weekend (forecast verified), and it was anything but a high impact event there (WWA maybe didn't entirely verify). That said, it did get me wondering about all those depictions of mid level warm air being more than just a modeling anamoly vs. maybe a hint of a sesonal trend (hoping not).

It was 1989 for sure

The low temps have been mild though. We just aren't seeing much in the way of range.

30.5 at Deep Creek ended up beating Saturday night and we had frost too. Full sun and back up to 54* now. Colors at / near peak most everywhere

32 at Deep Creek. Wind picked up after midnight and the temperature spiked on 3 occasions to almost 36 and then settled back to 32 each time. Still a nice coating of frost. Crystal blue skies this morning 10/10.

34/32 now here. We are going to freeze good. Winds are decoupled and it otherwise feels like winter here. Drove in this morning along new Germany road and savage river forest, if that area isn’t peak color it’s damn close. Color is pretty nice this year.

46* Deep Creek, 73* Leesburg. Looking forward to the excellent fall conditions this weekend.

Freeze watch posted Garrett county

Last nights 38* and several more forecast in the 40's for the week to come will get things moving in a hurry I think. Either way, has me motivated to sweep my chimney and get ready for woodstove season in a few short weeks. Beautiful today but too chilly/windy to zoom outside.

Signed up for the IAD 10K run on Oct 1. Would prefer to have that SLP somewhere else. Fortunately we have another 38 chances for the solution to change.

Last year the holidays were warmer in absolute terms (50’s for days) than 2021 Memorial Day weekend at DCL (43*F the whole time) and that was a bona fide fact. No matter how many more years I got that is a feat I am betting won’t repeat. I literally slept Memorial Day weekend next to a kerosene heater and Christmas it was too warm to burn the wood stove without raising the windows. I would really like to avoid that this year.