RIC_WX

Its a progressive pattern - more challenging to model. The seasonal analogs built off nina's with multi-week cold starts to December probably offer the best clue. These suggest the relax/reload period will be no less than 3-4 weeks. If anything, the pattern has been MORE progressive than some of the analog years hence the somewhat muted warm ups here compared to both what has often been modeled in the medium range and what has verified in places like the midwest. Translation - we are lamenting the fact the pattern hasn't been better, when in reality it could have been sooooo much worse.

19* / 12* Deep Creek. Not too cold, not much snow. But the wind? Relentless since late morning. So far one tree down and one piece of siding violently removed from my cabin.

With the kind of wind expected, power outages become an inevitability for someone. I spent the afternoon tuning up my generator to assure it will stay on at DCL.

Sketchy drive? Maybe. The GFS has 850 at -8C for State College and +8C for Morgantown. Don't forget ur umbrella.

The 2005/6 analog continues to look favorable to how this season is unfolding. If this continues... -Feb will not be a wall to wall torch -We will achieve near climo snowfall -We are likely out of business through at least mid January -The coldest anamolies from normal are firmly behind us for the remainder of the entire season I don't know if you draw positive or negative conclusions from this, its something for everyone. The models will continue to be volatile day to day. If anything, to my very untrained eye the pattern progression is moving pretty fast this year and perhaps suggests we wont be out of the game for weeks at a time. I sure do wish we could have timed a better pattern for the holidays. Early December cold is mostly wasted for us.

Yes, but 89 shows up too and illustrates another possible outcome, that the best the season has to offer is actually happening right now and once the pattern inevitably relaxes it either never comes back (1990) or once it does it's only after taking an extended break (2005-06). 2005 is referenced because it had a similar gangbusters start and then abruptly collapsed on 12.23, not coincidentally exactly what the GFS was depicting today (so, its not without precedent by a longshot in the...pattern analogs).

Trade Polish for Big Savage and you have a deal!

The data we want is at the top of Sideling hill, not the bottom

Bold prediction for DC-Balt corridor. Points west, a little more reason to be bullish but the pattern has to establish itself on time and not end altogether after a good 3 or 4 week run. Relax, and reload. Hopefully we all get in on some fun this year.

Closing in on 1" here. Of course, I took the cover off the boat yesterday to work on it. I keep thinking the boat is impervious to water, but apparently, not so - at least not the inside.

Wasn't it just last summer it never rained at all? Sheesh. Looking forward to seeing this pattern end.

My place bottomed out at 49/46. Heat was on in the Jeep when I rolled out at 7A... Yesterday was probably the nicest day of the summer, which isn't saying much given the endless days of clouds / drizzzle / rain most other times.

My station was around 2" as well. Hopefully enough to top off DCL before Memorial Day, It's come up considerably in the past 6 weeks, but as of last weekend you could still see the waterline on the bridge pier to suggest it was still below normal for the time of year.

Leesburg 45 / 0.28” DCL 37 / 0.02”

Clearly we are weighting snow above cold in our grading... For DCL / Garrett - a major pre thanksgiving snowstorm, epic weeks of cold D-J-F, 4 consecutive sub zero mornings in January (peaking with twin -12 readings), lake iced over solid for 9+ consecutive weeks, 100"+ of snow spread across too many events to count. Worst week was the mild stretch between xmas and new years, no matter what we can't seem to escape this. Still, it will take this weeks sustained 60*+ temps to finally get the ice out of the lake in mid March. I suspect it will still be too cold for swimming memorial day weekend, in stark contrast with last year. Grade: A For Leesburg - kids missed a ton of school. High utility bills. Enough snow to break one shovel and the gas powered snow removal machine, despite accumulations being on the low side of normal. Spring green up appears delayed until...well, spring. Grade: B Given our overall warmer climate period we are in, this will be remembered objectively as a very good winter in a series of mostly bad ones I think.