RCNYILWX

The potential has definitely upticked per the 12z cycle. Euro/EPS showed the most impressive bump but there's also a decent amount of spicy GEFS members. Not a huge fan of relying on phasing over the Rockies for the more juiced system given the confluence caused by the PV lobe over southeastern Canada. As a result, for interests in the northern half of DVN to LOT and points north, there may be a relative northward limit in the sfc low track in this sort of evolution even with phasing occurring. Obviously early enough in the game though for noteworthy changes in the whole setup still, for better or for worse. I wrote the long term AFD for LOT today, which also covered the cold shot beyond whatever happens Wednesday-Thursday. Chances have also upticked for WAA/fronto type snow late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

If you're a glutton for NAM punishment in its outer ranges, the 12z run took a pretty big step toward the global solutions for Thursday's first flakes.

Seems like a good time to make my annual return to discuss the pattern and winter events (with a general emphasis on the LOT CWA). First opportunity for wraparound snow looks like late next Wednesday into early Thursday on the early end of the spectrum, along the lines of the 12z GFS. The 00z ECMWF had a slower progression of the cutoff low, which would shift back the colder air and snow chances a couple days. We'll see shortly if that changes at all on the 12z Euro. Also found out the 06z and 18z operational ECMWF runs go out to 144 hours now.

Point well taken with respect to top end surge potential, but it would've needed to be a much larger shift to spare substantial impacts overall to the metro.

The NHC practically begs people to not pay any attention to plots of the center line of the cone, yet minute changes in the center line are treated like gospel. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

We're watching on AWIPS at NWS Chicago and our educated guess has been the Anna Maria Island to Longboat Key corridor, seems like it would pass north of downtown Sarasota based on current radar extrapolation. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

That's not a good sign to say the least. But certainly in line with the projections for the highest surge areas.

[mention=10150]bdgwx[/mention] Did you also happen to calculate the estimated IKE for Ian? Probably another good point of comparison there.

Thoughts with everyone down in the affected areas. As an NWS met (WFO Chicago), it always baffles me when I see coastal offices issuing special marine warnings during hurricane warnings. It's a waste of resources. Hoping at some point for a policy change to stop the silliness. We at the WFOs need to be focusing on tornado and flash flood warnings on land, and constant flow of information to emergency/public safety partners and the public via NWSChat and social media, not spending time issuing marine warnings for fishes. Just put waterspouts in the marine hurricane warning statements and in the gridded forecasts, and be done with it. If there's any boats out in a hurricane warning, that's on them.

I was the NWSChat/Slack person for the event, responsible for all of our main room chats and also a room we set up for city of Chicago support. Easily the most chat posts I've made in an event, just a total barrage at the height of the it. One of our radar operators recommended to post ~10 confirmed tornadoes' on there because that was about right. Almost every circulation had an at least brief TDS. Just hard to describe how crazy it was during that time, including briefly sheltering when we saw power flashes outside our window. Anyone on here who has pertinent damage information and photos for our survey teams tomorrow, please email [email protected]. Also you can let me know in a PM if you're trying to send information to one of our neighboring offices affected tonight. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

That was mostly or entirely us because we were only in shelter for a few minutes. Had no choice but to go the carpet bomb route. When the entire line is spinning, go big lol. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

NW Indiana would like to have a word with you lol Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

Nevermind discrete lol, it didn't have to be. Night of the QLCS twisters once the LLJ ramped up and low level shear increased markedly. One of the craziest nights in my now almost 14 years here. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

Wonder if there's a play for semi discrete mode for longer this evening. Not like it's unheard of in these setups. And if that were to happen, the forecast soundings are favorable for strong tornadoes. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

00z HRRR supports the strong wording in the day 2 update this afternoon.