yoda

BULLETIN Tropical Depression Nine Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022 500 AM AST Fri Sep 23 2022 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.9N 68.6W ABOUT 615 MI...985 KM ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA ABOUT 1105 MI...1780 KM ESE OF HAVANA CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nine was located near latitude 13.9 North, longitude 68.6 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn more westward is forecast over the next next day or so followed by a turn back to the west-northwest and northwest by this weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Only slow intensification is forecast over the next day or so, followed by more significant intensification over the weekend and early next week. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for TD Nine can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Nine is expected to produce the following rainfall: Aruba, Bonaire, and Curacao: Additional 1 to 2 inches Northern Venezuela: 2 to 5 inches Northern Columbia: 3 to 6 inches Jamaica: 4 to 8 inches with local maximum up to 12 inches Cayman Islands: 4 to 8 inches Southern Haiti and Southern Dominican Republic: 2 to 4 inches with local maximum up to 6 inches These rains may produce flash flooding and mudslides in areas of higher terrain, particularly over Jamaica. SURF: Swells generated by this system will begin affecting Jamaica, the Cayman Islands and Cuba over the next several days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products form your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Papin

BULLETIN Hurricane Fiona Advisory Number 36 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022 500 AM AST Fri Sep 23 2022 ...CENTER OF FIONA PASSING NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE ISLAND... ...HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN NOVA SCOTIA BY EARLY SATURDAY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.8N 66.8W ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM NW OF BERMUDA ABOUT 765 MI...1230 KM SSW OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...936 MB...27.64 INCHES

Uh that would be a no on the 00z model suite tonight

Okay, who was playing around with the KCHO ASOS earlier?

Landfall near or just SE of KTLH

Hmmm... weakens 15 to 20mb from 168 to 174

Headed to the Big Bend of FL at 168

Actually looks like it's going to make landfall just north of Tampa at 228

Indeed... luckily skirts by as it heads north... but very close

Looks like Big Bend of FL

Entering E GOM at 180

Smacking extreme western Cuba at 168 at 985mb per TT

I believe @OSUmetstud is in NF? Or nearby...

Yup... and 850mb has 45 to 50kt winds too at 270 lol... so some wind as well

06z GFS FWIW quick recurve out to sea this run

00z CMC is... weird. Follows 00z GFS in that it moves due north after reaching SE Bahamas... then at Day 7, takes a NW jog toward NC... then Day 8 says nope and starts to head NE but is near HSE at 204... then an abrupt right turn out to sea as a s/w comes barrelling into the Great Lakes

00z GFS OP this run gets Fiona into the SE Bahamas then moves due north... takes a leisurely pace north Days 7-10... could be a Bermuda threat

11pm track has Fiona making landfall and moving through the DR and Haiti.... that would certainly cause some issues

18z GFS OP next weekend would be a bit breezy lol

Last advisory on Earl issued at 5pm... so now we wait... for awhile

12z NAM keeps the majority of the rain (i.e. >.5") west of the i95 corridor with the heaviest along the BR and parts of the i81 corridor 12z 3km NAM is more scattershot with its heavier rain totals... one in PW county, along the BR, out near Winchester, and in NE MD

Those types of storms, thankfully, are rare though