yoda

Hurricane Ian Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022 1100 PM EDT Mon Sep 26 2022 Ian continues to become better organized on satellite images with intense deep convection in its Central Dense Overcast and numerous surrounding banding features. The overall cloud pattern is quite symmetric with well-defined upper-level outflow. Observations from both Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the central pressure is falling, and the intensity is increased to 90 kt based on a recently reported 700 mb flight-level wind of 101 kt from the Air Force plane. This is also in agreement with a subjective Dvorak satellite estimate from SAB. Aside from its relatively brief time passing over western Cuba, Ian will be moving over waters of very high oceanic heat content during the next couple of days. The various Rapid Intensification (RI) indices show a significant probability of RI and this is reflected in the short-term official intensity forecast. However, the SHIPS guidance, which is based on global model predictions, indicates that a significant increase in southwesterly shear and a substantially drying of low- to mid-level air will begin in 24-36 hours. The NHC forecast, like the previous one, shows strengthening to Category 4 intensity in a day or so, followed by gradual weakening. However, Ian is still expected to be a major hurricane when it reaches the Florida west coast. The official intensity forecast is near or above the latest simple and corrected multi-model consensus predictions. Ian continues its north-northwestward trek at about 340/11 kt. The hurricane is expected to move north-northwestward to northward over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico during the next day or so, along the western periphery of a subtropical ridge. After around 36 hours, the track forecast becomes more uncertain, since there is considerable divergence of the track models in the 2-3 day time frame. The guidance also shows considerable slowing of the forward speed, due to a weakening of the steering currents, when Ian approaches the west coast of Florida. This slower forward motion is likely to prolong the storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts, especially along the west coast of Florida. The official track forecast is adjusted just slightly east of the previous NHC prediction based on the latest multi-model consensus aid, TVCN. Key Messages: 1. Life-threatening storm surge, hurricane-force winds, flash floods and possible mudslides are expected in portions of western Cuba beginning overnight and continuing into Tuesday. Devastating wind damage is possible where the core of Ian moves across western Cuba. Efforts to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. 2. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge along much of the Florida west coast where a storm surge warning has been issued, with the highest risk from Fort Myers to the Tampa Bay region. Residents in these areas should listen to advice given by local officials. 3. Hurricane-force winds are expected in the hurricane warning area in west-central Florida beginning Wednesday morning with tropical storm conditions expected by late Tuesday. 4. Heavy rainfall will spread across western Cuba through Tuesday. This will likely produce instances of flash flooding and possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain over western Cuba. 5. Heavy rainfall will increase across the Florida Keys and South Florida Tuesday, spreading into central and northern Florida Wednesday and Thursday and the Southeast by Friday and Saturday, potentially causing flash, urban and small stream flooding. Considerable flooding, including significant, prolonged river flooding, is likely across Central Florida. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0300Z 21.3N 83.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 27/1200Z 22.8N 83.7W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 28/0000Z 24.5N 83.7W 120 KT 140 MPH 36H 28/1200Z 26.1N 83.5W 115 KT 130 MPH 48H 29/0000Z 27.2N 83.1W 105 KT 120 MPH 60H 29/1200Z 27.9N 82.7W 95 KT 110 MPH...INLAND 72H 30/0000Z 28.6N 82.4W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND 96H 01/0000Z 31.3N 82.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 120H 02/0000Z 35.0N 81.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Pasch

BULLETIN Hurricane Ian Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022 1100 PM EDT Mon Sep 26 2022 ...IAN EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE OVERNIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY... ...SIGNIFICANT WIND AND STORM SURGE IMPACTS WILL BEGIN IN WESTERN CUBA VERY SOON... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.3N 83.4W ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM ESE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None.

@Eskimo Joe would like

Hurricane Ian Special Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022 500 PM EDT Mon Sep 26 2022 Ian continues to strengthen over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. The last report from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters around 1630 UTC found 700-mb flight-level winds of 79 kt. The inner core appears better organized, and the eyewall structure has greatly improved in radar imagery from the Cayman Islands. The 18 UTC satellite classifications from SAB and TAFB were a consensus T4.5/77 kt, but the continued improvement in satellite structure warrants raising the initial intensity to 85 kt for this advisory. Atmospheric and oceanic conditions remain very favorable for additional intensification during the next 24 h or so, as Ian moves over the very warm waters of the northwestern Caribbean Sea and the southeastern Gulf of Mexico while the shear remains quite low. The NHC intensity forecast calls for Ian to become a major hurricane before it reaches western Cuba early Tuesday. It is then forecast to reach its peak intensity over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico in 36 h. After that, southwesterly shear in association with a deep-layer trough over the eastern U.S. is forecast to significantly increase over the hurricane on Wednesday and Thursday, which will likely disrupt the vertical structure and import drier air into its circulation. Despite these less favorable conditions, Ian is still forecast to remain at or near major hurricane strength as it passes near the west-central coast of Florida on Wednesday and Thursday. The NHC intensity forecast agrees well with the latest IVCN and HCCA aids. Ian has made an expected turn toward the north-northwest, and its initial motion is 330/11 kt. The hurricane will move north-northwestward to northward over the next day or so as it is steered by a mid-level ridge to the east. A turn to the north-northeast with a decrease in forward speed is forecast on Wednesday and Thursday as the center of Ian moves near the west coast of Florida. The slower forward motion is likely to prolong the storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts, especially along the west coast of Florida. The latest track guidance has come into better agreement on this scenario, although it is noted that small deviations to the shore-parallel track could have large implications on the impacts at particular locations along the west coast of Florida. The NHC track forecast has again been adjusted slightly eastward at 48-72 h, which follows the latest trends in the global model guidance and lies near but just west of the multi-model consensus aids. Based on the latest forecast and timing of expected impacts, Hurricane and Storm Surge Warnings have been issued along the west coast of Florida. Key Messages: 1. Life-threatening storm surge, hurricane-force winds, flash floods and possible mudslides are expected in portions of western Cuba beginning this evening and continuing into Tuesday. Devastating wind damage is possible where the core of Ian moves across western Cuba. Efforts to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. 2. There is the danger of life-threatening storm surge along much of the Florida west coast where a storm surge warning has been issued, with the highest risk from Fort Myers to the Tampa Bay region. Residents in these areas should listen to advice given by local officials. 3. Hurricane-force winds are expected in the hurricane warning area in west-central Florida beginning Wednesday morning with tropical storm conditions expected by late Tuesday. 4. Heavy rainfall will increase across the Florida Keys and south Florida Tuesday, spreading to central and northern Florida Wednesday and Thursday, potentially causing flash, urban and small stream flooding. Significant prolonged river flooding is likely across central Florida. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/2100Z 20.3N 83.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 27/0600Z 21.7N 83.8W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 27/1800Z 23.6N 84.0W 115 KT 130 MPH 36H 28/0600Z 25.3N 83.9W 120 KT 140 MPH 48H 28/1800Z 26.7N 83.5W 115 KT 130 MPH 60H 29/0600Z 27.5N 83.2W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 29/1800Z 28.1N 82.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 30/1800Z 30.1N 82.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 120H 01/1800Z 33.5N 82.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Reinhart

BULLETIN Hurricane Ian Special Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022 500 PM EDT Mon Sep 26 2022 ...IAN CONTINUES TO QUICKLY INTENSIFY... ...CONDITIONS IN WESTERN CUBA TO DETERIORATE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WITH SIGNIFICANT WIND AND STORM SURGE IMPACTS EXPECTED... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.3N 83.2W ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM SE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Hurricane Warning has been issued for the Dry Tortugas. A Storm Surge Warning has been issued for Anclote River southward to Flamingo, including Tampa Bay. A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for Altamaha Sound to the Flagler/Volusia County Line, including the St. Johns River. The Tropical Storm Watch has been upgraded to a Tropical Storm Warning from Englewood southward to Flamingo. A Hurricane Watch has been issued from Bonita Beach to Englewood. The Hurricane Watch from Englewood to the Anclote River, including Tampa Bay, has been upgraded to a Hurricane Warning. A Hurricane Watch has been issued from the Anclote River to the Suwannee River. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from the Suwannee River to Indian Pass, and from Jupiter Inlet to Altamaha Sound. The government of the Cayman Islands has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for Grand Cayman and the Tropical Storm Watch for Little Cayman and Cayman Brac.

Decent little outflow boundary coming through on radar

CHO to EZF to S MD get dumped on... 3 to 7 inches of rain through 216 on 12z Euro

LWX AFD from this afternoon: For next weekend, that is where forecast uncertainty greatly increases over our area. Hurricane Ian is forecast to move into the southeast this weekend after landfall somewhere along the eastern Gulf Coast. What Ian does from there is still quite uncertain in terms of the when and where. Some impacts from whatever is left of Ian are possible this weekend though, so monitor the latest forecast for Ian from the National Hurricane Center with more details at hurricanes.gov.

You mean tomorrow?

Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 138 PM EDT Sun Sep 25 2022 VAC069-251800- /O.CON.KLWX.TO.W.0039.000000T0000Z-220925T1800Z/ Frederick VA- 138 PM EDT Sun Sep 25 2022 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 PM EDT FOR EAST CENTRAL FREDERICK COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN VIRGINIA... At 138 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located near Winchester, moving east at 40 mph. HAZARD...Tornado and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...For those in the direct path of a tornado touchdown, flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Damage to roofs, siding, and windows may occur. Mobile homes may be damaged or destroyed. Tree damage is likely. Locations impacted include... Stephenson, Clear Brook, Albin, Cedar Hill and Cedar Grove. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. This cluster of thunderstorms is capable of producing tornadoes and widespread significant wind damage. Do not wait to see or hear the tornado. For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. && LAT...LON 3921 7820 3926 7821 3932 7812 3921 7807 TIME...MOT...LOC 1738Z 264DEG 34KT 3924 7814 TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN $$

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 139 PM EDT Sun Sep 25 2022 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Southeastern Washington County in north central Maryland... Northwestern Montgomery County in central Maryland... Southwestern Frederick County in north central Maryland... Loudoun County in northern Virginia... Southeastern Frederick County in northwestern Virginia... Northeastern Warren County in northwestern Virginia... Clarke County in northwestern Virginia... North central Fauquier County in northern Virginia... The eastern City of Winchester in northwestern Virginia... Jefferson County in the Panhandle of West Virginia... South central Berkeley County in the Panhandle of West Virginia... * Until 230 PM EDT. * At 139 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from near Inwood to near Millwood Pike to near Stephens City, moving east at 55 mph. HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... Germantown, Leesburg, Winchester, Herndon, Broadlands, Lansdowne, Lowes Island, Brambleton, Charles Town, Poolesville, Millwood Pike, Dulles International Airport, Ashburn, Sterling, Ballenger Creek, Countryside, Purcellville, Brunswick, Ranson and Berryville. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. && LAT...LON 3924 7727 3905 7734 3893 7745 3901 7830 3917 7816 3933 7822 3939 7739 TIME...MOT...LOC 1739Z 264DEG 50KT 3933 7816 3918 7808 3902 7820 TORNADO...POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX WIND GUST...70 MPH

Note where he lives...

It does. Record before was 940.2mb set in 1977

Tropical Storm Ian Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022 1100 PM EDT Fri Sep 23 2022 The system remains sheared from the northeast, with the low-level circulation evident a bit to the east of the deep convection. Unfortunately, we didn't have the benefit of a reconnaissance aircraft this evening to sample the winds, but satellite estimates did increase a bit. TAFB and SAB provided Dvorak classifications of T2.0/30 kt and T3.0/45 kt, respectively, while the objective UW-CIMSS ADT and SATCON estimates are at tropical storm intensity. Based on a blend of these data, the depression is upgraded to Tropical Storm Ian with 35-kt winds. Ian's center appears to have been moving more slowly this evening, and the initial motion estimate is west-northwestward, or 285/10 kt. The track guidance is in good agreement that Ian should turn westward during the next 12-24 hours while located to the south of a small mid-level anticyclone centered just north of Hispaniola. After 24 hours, Ian is expected to begin recurving around the western side of this high, turning northwestward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea, and then northward while crossing Cuba into the Gulf of Mexico and toward Florida. The track models agree on this general scenario, and the guidance envelope is flanked by the major global models, with the ECMWF taking a route over South Florida and the GFS farther west, remaining over the eastern Gulf of Mexico by day 5. The new NHC forecast lies between these two scenarios and is not much different from the previous forecast. The GFS and ECMWF ensembles both show a similar amount of spread as the deterministic guidance, but both ensemble means are close to the multi-model consensus aids, which helps to give more credence to the position of the official forecast. The moderate deep-layer shear affecting Ian is forecast to decrease during the next 6 to 12 hours, and the cyclone will be moving over the very warm waters of the central and northwestern Caribbean Sea, where sea surface temperatures are between 29 and 31 degrees Celsius. Intensification is expected to be gradual during the next 36 hours while Ian gets better organized in a lower-shear environment, but after that time, conditions will be conducive for faster strengthening. In fact, the NHC intensity forecast explicitly calls for rapid intensification (RI) between days 2 and 3 while Ian is moving over the northwestern Caribbean Sea toward western Cuba. It's worth nothing too that the RI indices from SHIPS are showing a 2-in-3 chance of a 65-kt increase in winds during the next 3 days, and if that transpires, Ian could be stronger than what's shown in the official forecast. The storm is not expected to be over Cuba long enough to cause much weakening, and the forecast still shows Ian as a major hurricane over the eastern Gulf of Mexico while approaching the west coast of Florida. Key Messages: 1. Ian is expected to produce heavy rainfall and instances of flash flooding and possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain, particularly over Jamaica and Cuba. 2. Hurricane conditions are possible in the Cayman Islands by early Monday, with tropical storm conditions possible by late Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in Jamaica on Sunday. 3. Early next week, Ian is forecast to move near or over western Cuba as a strengthening hurricane and then approach the Florida peninsula at or near major hurricane strength, with the potential for significant impacts from storm surge, hurricane-force winds, and heavy rainfall. While it is too soon to determine the exact magnitude and location of these impacts, residents in Cuba, the Florida Keys, and the Florida peninsula should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place and closely monitor forecast updates through the weekend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0300Z 14.8N 72.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 24/1200Z 14.7N 73.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 25/0000Z 15.1N 76.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 25/1200Z 16.1N 78.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 26/0000Z 17.6N 80.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 26/1200Z 19.3N 81.5W 75 KT 85 MPH...NEAR GRAND CAYMAN 72H 27/0000Z 21.2N 82.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 28/0000Z 24.9N 83.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 120H 29/0000Z 28.0N 82.0W 95 KT 110 MPH...OVER FLORIDA $$ Forecaster Berg

Tropical Storm Ian Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022 1100 PM EDT Fri Sep 23 2022 ...TROPICAL STORM IAN FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA... ...HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS EARLY MONDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.8N 72.0W ABOUT 385 MI...625 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA ABOUT 680 MI...1095 KM ESE OF GRAND CAYMAN MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Cayman Islands A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Jamaica A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests in western and central Cuba should monitor the progress of Ian. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ian was located near latitude 14.8 North, longitude 72.0 West. Ian is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A westward or west-northwestward motion is expected through early Sunday. A turn toward the northwest is forecast late Sunday, followed by a north-northwestward turn by late Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Ian is forecast to move across the central Caribbean Sea through Saturday, pass southwest of Jamaica on Sunday, and pass near or over the Cayman Islands Sunday night and early Monday. Ian will then approach western Cuba on Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Ian is expected to become a hurricane Sunday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).

Favorable as in better track?

I would think that the 18z GFS track would be decent for a heavy rain and severe threat next Saturday

Birthday for me and tropical system potentially? Nice

Tropical Depression Nine Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022 500 AM AST Fri Sep 23 2022 Convection this morning has increased primarily to the east of the area of low pressure we have been monitoring in the central Caribbean Sea, currently passing by to the north of Curacao island. The system already possessed a well-defined circulation for the last 12 to 18 hours, but it was only overnight that the ongoing convective activity was able to persist long enough near the center to be considered a tropical cyclone. The most recent satellite intensity estimate from TAFB was up to T2.5/35-kt. However the GOES-16 derived motion winds from the meso sector over the system have only been 25-30 kt in the 925-850 mb layer on the northeastern periphery of the circulation. In addition, buoy 42059 located to the northeast of the center has been reporting winds up to only 27-kt. The combination of all these data provide enough justification to upgrade this system to Tropical Depression Nine, with the initial winds set at 30 kt for this advisory. An Air Force Reserve Reconnaissance mission will be investigating the system later this morning to provide more in-situ information of the system's structure and intensity. The current motion right now is estimated to be off to the west-northwest at 290/12 kt. In the short-term, the depression is forecast to bend back more westward as a narrow east-to-west oriented mid-level ridge builds in behind the weakness left behind from Fiona. The current eastward displaced convection may also tug the broad center in that direction as well. However, after 48 hours, this ridge will start to decay as a longwave deep-layer trough over the eastern United States begins to amplify southward. This synoptic evolution should then allow the cyclone to begin gaining latitude, though the exact timing at which this occurs could be somewhat related to the vertical depth of the cyclone and how it interacts with a weak upper-level trough expected to be over the far western Caribbean in the day 3-4 time-frame. The model guidance early on is in fairly good agreement, but larger across-track spread begins to take shape by 48 hours, with the GFS and its ensemble mean located further south and west, and with the ECMWF and its ensemble mean located further north and east. The initial track forecast has decided to split the difference between these two model suites, and lies fairly close to the consensus aids TVCN and HCCA. There is still a healthy amount of uncertainty in the track forecast at the day 4-5 timeframe. Currently the structure of the depression is quite disheveled, with the low-level circulation mostly exposed, with deep convective activity displaced to its west-southeast. This structure is due to 25-30 kt of northeasterly 200-850 mb vertical wind shear caused from the equatorward outflow channel of Fiona, resulting in significant upper-level flow over the system. However, as the depression moves westward, it will move out form under this unfavorable flow and into a lighter upper-level northeasterlies. However, it may take time for the low-level center to become better aligned with the convective activity, and thus only slow intensification is forecast over the next 24-48 hours. After that period, most of the guidance shows environmental conditions becoming much more favorable as shear drops under 10 kt and the cyclone is over the warm 29-30 C waters of the northwestern Caribbean. Thereafter, potential land interaction with Cuba, and the potential for an increase in southerly shear at day 5 may cap off the intensity at the end of the forecast. The initial NHC forecast shows the depression intensifying up to a category 2 hurricane by the time it nears the coast of Cuba. Key Messages: 1. Tropical Depression Nine is expected to produce heavy rainfall and instances of flash flooding and possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain in Aruba, Bonaire, and Curacao. Heavy rains are also likely to spread into Jamaica and the Cayman Islands in the coming days. 2. The depression is expected to approach Jamaica and the Cayman islands as an intensifying tropical storm. Watches and warnings for these locations may be required in subsequent forecast cycles. 3. This system is forecast to approach western Cuba and enter the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by the end of the forecast period. Interests in Cuba and those along the Eastern Gulf Coast of the United States should closely monitor this system, though at this juncture forecast uncertainty remains fairly high. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0900Z 13.9N 68.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 23/1800Z 14.4N 70.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 24/0600Z 14.7N 72.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 24/1800Z 14.8N 75.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 25/0600Z 15.5N 77.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 25/1800Z 17.0N 78.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 26/0600Z 18.9N 80.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 27/0600Z 22.6N 82.6W 90 KT 105 MPH...NEAR CUBA 120H 28/0600Z 26.0N 82.3W 95 KT 110 MPH