yoda

Game got PPD ETA:

35 to 45mph gusts and heavy rain please

Wind gusts to 45 mph in the zones tonight for DC and BWI metro

In SE VA

CMC pretty much agrees... GFS slightly less than both

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1000 AM EDT Fri Sep 30 2022 MDZ017-018-302200- /O.NEW.KLWX.WI.Y.0014.220930T2200Z-221001T0800Z/ St. Marys-Calvert- Including the cities of Lexington Park, California, Chesapeake Beach, Huntingtown, Dunkirk, North Beach, Lusby, and Prince Frederick 1000 AM EDT Fri Sep 30 2022 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EDT SATURDAY... * WHAT...Northeast winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph expected along the shores of the Chesapeake. * WHERE...St. Marys and Calvert Counties. * WHEN...From 6 PM this evening to 4 AM EDT Saturday. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1000 AM EDT Fri Sep 30 2022 VAZ025-036>038-503-504-507-508-WVZ505-302200- /O.NEW.KLWX.WI.Y.0014.220930T2000Z-221001T1000Z/ Augusta-Nelson-Albemarle-Greene-Western Highland-Eastern Highland- Northern Virginia Blue Ridge-Central Virginia Blue Ridge- Western Pendleton- Including the cities of Staunton, Waynesboro, Stuarts Draft, Lovingston, Charlottesville, Stanardsville, Hightown, Monterey, Big Meadows, Wintergreen, and Riverton 1000 AM EDT Fri Sep 30 2022 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT SATURDAY... * WHAT...Northeast winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph expected. Highest winds will be along the ridges. * WHERE...In Virginia, Augusta, Nelson, Albemarle, Greene, Western Highland and Eastern Highland Counties, and Northern Virginia Blue Ridge and Central Virginia Blue Ridge. In West Virginia, Western Pendleton County. * WHEN...From 4 PM this afternoon to 6 AM EDT Saturday. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result, particularly along the ridges.

Hurricane Ian Advisory Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022 500 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022 ...IAN BATTERING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE, WINDS, AND FLOODING... ...NEW WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED FOR NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.9N 82.0W ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM E OF PUNTA GORDA FLORIDA ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM SSW OF ORLANDO FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB...27.91 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Storm Surge Watch has been issued north of South Santee River South Carolina to Little River Inlet. The Tropical Storm Warning has been extended northward to Surf City, North Carolina. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from north of Surf City to Cape Lookout, North Carolina.

Hurricane Ian Advisory Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022 500 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022 ...IAN BATTERING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE, WINDS, AND FLOODING... ...NEW WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED FOR NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.9N 82.0W ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM E OF PUNTA GORDA FLORIDA ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM SSW OF ORLANDO FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB...27.91 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Storm Surge Watch has been issued north of South Santee River South Carolina to Little River Inlet. The Tropical Storm Warning has been extended northward to Surf City, North Carolina. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from north of Surf City to Cape Lookout, North Carolina.

FWIW, which again, is next to zero lol, 18z NAM has heavy rain getting in here late Friday afternoon

Possible isolated tornado threat I think

00z EURO also coming in hot with a Saturday washout

BULLETIN Hurricane Ian Intermediate Advisory Number 21A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022 200 AM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022 ...IAN MOVING CLOSER TO THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA... ...EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, CATASTROPHIC WINDS AND FLOODING IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.2N 83.0W ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SW OF NAPLES FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...953 MB...28.14 INCHES

Hurricane Ian Special Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022 1230 AM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022 This Special Advisory has been released to issue a Storm Surge Warning for the Lower Florida Keys from Big Pine Key to Key West. The storm surge inundation amounts for the area have been increased to 3 to 5 ft. No other changes were made to the track or intensity forecast.

Um... okay? BULLETIN Hurricane Ian Special Advisory Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022 1230 AM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022 ...IAN EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, CATASTROPHIC WINDS AND FLOODING IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...STORM SURGE WARNING ISSUED FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS... SUMMARY OF 1230 AM EDT...0430 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.0N 82.9W ABOUT 100 MI...165 KM SW OF NAPLES FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...953 MB...28.14 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Storm Surge Warning has been issued for the Lower Florida Keys from Big Pine Key westward to Key West.

00z CMC is a complete washout for Saturday

00z ICON was lulz tonight Heavy rain Saturday morning into the afternoon... then a little bit of a lull Sunday morning... then a coastal SLP develops and bam, heavy rain returns late Sunday afternoon into Monday night

Hurricane Ian Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022 1100 PM EDT Tue Sep 27 2022 The hurricane continues to have an impressive appearance on satellite imagery, exhibiting considerable deep convection with numerous cloud tops colder than -80C. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter Aircraft recently penetrated the center and found that the central pressure had not fallen since earlier this evening. Based on a blend of SFMR-observed surface winds and 700 mb flight-level winds from the Air Force plane, the current intensity is held at 105 kt for now. Ian has turned slightly to the right and the initial motion is now 015/9 kt. Over the next couple of days, the tropical cyclone should move between the western edge of a subtropical high pressure system and a broad trough over the eastern United States. The dynamical model consensus, TVCN, prediction has again shifted a little to the east, and is just slightly slower on this cycle. Therefore the official track forecast has, again, been shifted a few degrees to the east of the previous one. This does not require any change the watches and warnings over Florida at this time. Ian's outflow is being restricted over the southwestern portion of its circulation by southwesterly upper-tropospheric flow over the Gulf of Mexico. Vertical shear over the hurricane is likely to increase up through landfall. The SHIPS guidance and water vapor imagery suggest that there will also be some dry mid-level air in the vicinity. However, it is expected that this large system will be fairly resilient to the shear and dry air before landfall. Therefore, the official intensity forecast continues to show Ian reaching the coast with category 4 intensity. Since radar imagery indicates that an eyewall replacement is probably underway, this could result in a larger eye evolving overnight. Interests along the Florida west coast in the Hurricane Warning area should be prepared for a large and destructive hurricane, and residents in this area should heed the advice of emergency management officials. Users are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast track as some additional adjustments to the track are possible, and significant wind, storm surge, and rainfall hazards will extend far from the center. Key Messages: 1. Life-threatening storm surge is expected along the Florida west coast where a storm surge warning is in effect, with the highest risk from Naples to the Sarasota region. Residents in these areas should listen to advice given by local officials and follow any evacuation orders for your area. 2. Hurricane-force winds are expected in the hurricane warning area in southwest and west-central Florida beginning Wednesday morning with tropical storm conditions expected overnight. Devastating wind damage is expected near the core of Ian. Residents should rush all preparations to completion. 3. Heavy rainfall will spread across the Florida peninsula through Thursday and reach portions of the Southeast later this week and this weekend. Catastrophic flooding is expected across portions of central Florida with considerable flooding in southern Florida, northern Florida, southeastern Georgia and coastal South Carolina. Widespread, prolonged moderate to major river flooding expected across central Florida. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0300Z 24.9N 82.9W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 28/1200Z 26.0N 82.5W 115 KT 130 MPH 24H 29/0000Z 27.2N 81.9W 110 KT 125 MPH...INLAND 36H 29/1200Z 28.2N 81.4W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 48H 30/0000Z 29.3N 80.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER 60H 30/1200Z 30.6N 80.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 01/0000Z 32.7N 81.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 96H 02/0000Z 36.0N 82.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 120H 03/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch

BULLETIN Hurricane Ian Advisory Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022 1100 PM EDT Tue Sep 27 2022 ...IAN EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, CATASTROPHIC WINDS AND FLOODING IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.9N 82.9W ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM SW OF NAPLES FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.12 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Watch north of Altamaha Sound to South Santee River is changed to a Tropical Storm Warning.

952mb/120mph at 11pm

FWIW, which I know is basically nothing lol, but 00z NAM gets first bands of Ian up here Friday evening and really starts cranking early Saturday morning