yoda

Storm down by Madison looks a little interesting

Afternoon AFD from LWX suggests snow in the mountains next week A quite chilly day in store for Tuesday, as well as Wednesday. High pressure will build in behind the departing front with a reinforcing ridge of high pressure to solidify cold temperatures. Highs both days may only make it to the middle 50s after a chilly start in the lower to middle 30s each day. What will come with cold air advection will be the chance for upslope snowfall in the mountains. The wind direction and fetch off of the Great Lakes could support some light accumulation mainly at higher elevations

LWX afternoon AFD sounds interesting for tomorrow .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As the main upper level trough of low pressure progresses slowly to the east across the Midwest and Great Lakes, a strong surface cold front will push into western Pennsylvania and northwest West Virginia shortly after daybreak Thursday morning. During the course of the morning, additional showers are expected to develop almost anywhere in the CWA with the primary focus in the Appalachians, Virginia Piedmont, and to the I-81 corridor. These developing showers will be scattered, but a more develop line of heavy showers and thunderstorms could develop across western Maryland and northern West Virginia around Noon or shortly before Noon just ahead of the strong surface cold front. This activity could take on such a linear alignment that we may be noting this as a QLCS. This QLCS like others, take shape when there is a strong and persistent southerly flow at the surface and a few thousand feet above ground. Hence, this type of flow allows for increased moisture and brings a component of wind shear to the table with developing convection. Such alignment of showers and thunderstorms brings the main threat of damaging winds. Also sometimes QLCS can produce embedded tornadoes. Hail cannot be ruled out either, but doesn`t seem the higher ranked component as CAPE or instability will be small or marginal. Timing of the heavy showers and strong to severe thunderstorms or QLCS factor seems to be 11am to 1pm in western MD and northern WV, 2pm to 4pm the I-81 corridor, and 5pm to 8pm the metropolitan areas and into southern Maryland. As the cold front clears the respective areas, so does the convection. Once the front passes, a sharp wind shirt is anticipated from west to east. Temperatures Thursday will top out middle 60s to lower 70s, then fall rapidly Thursday evening and night into the upper 30s to lower 40s. As previously mentioned, the airmass filling in behind the front will be Pacific and not Arctic, so Thursday night temperatures may not be as uncomfortable as could be with the airmass discrepancy.

This is pretty cool

I stopped watching last week. Hockey is back lol

Yup.. too little too late Hurricane Julia Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132022 1100 PM EDT Sat Oct 08 2022 Reports from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Julia became a hurricane near 08/23Z. NOAA measured 700-mb flight-level winds of 73 kt and estimated surface winds of 67 kt on the SFMR, while the Air Force measured 850-mb flight-level winds of 75 kt. The central pressure fell to near 988 mb while the planes were in the cyclone. Based on these data, the initial intensity is set at 65 kt. The initial motion is still westward or 270/14 kt. Strong deep-layer ridging to the north of the hurricane should steer Julia generally westward during the next couple of days with a gradual decrease in forward speed. This motion should bring the center across the coast of Nicaragua during the next several hours, then across Nicaragua on Sunday before emerging into the Pacific late Sunday or Sunday night. After that, Julia, or its remnants, are expected to continue moving generally westward until the system dissipates. The new official forecast track is very similar to the previous track and lies close to the various consensus models. Julia has only a few more hours before landfall in Nicaragua. However, infrared and microwave satellite imagery shows that the convective structure has become much better organized, and the hurricane would likely undergo rapid intensification if it wasn't about to make landfall. While not explicitly shown in the intensity forecast, maximum sustained winds could reach 70-75 kt before landfall. A quick weakening is expected after landfall, but Julia is forecast to be at or near tropical storm strength when it emerges off the Pacific coast of Nicaragua. The intensity forecast still calls for Julia to weaken over the Pacific and dissipate after 48 h as it becomes absorbed by a broader area of low pressure associated with a Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event, a scenario supported by the GFS, ECMWF, and Canadian models. However, the UKMET maintains some uncertainty about this, as it shows Julia surviving and movingly slowly westward into the Pacific during the next several days. Regardless of Julia's track and existence as a tropical cyclone, the evolving weather pattern is likely to lead to heavy rains over Central America for several days, which could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in areas of mountainous terrain. Key Messages: 1. Julia is expected to reach the coast of Nicaragua as a hurricane within the next several hours. Hurricane-force winds and a dangerous storm surge will continue in portions of Providencia and San Andres islands during the next few hours, and are expected near the core of the hurricane when it moves onshore in Nicaragua. 2. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides are expected across portions of Central America this weekend. Flash flooding is possible across the Isthmus of Tehuantepec in Mexico early next week. 3. Julia is forecast to remain as a tropical storm while it moves across Central America to the adjacent Pacific waters, and tropical storm warnings are in effect along the Pacific coasts of Nicaragua, Honduras, and El Salvador to account for the possibility of tropical-storm-force winds in those areas late Sunday and Sunday night. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0300Z 12.5N 82.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 09/1200Z 12.5N 84.7W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 24H 10/0000Z 12.6N 87.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER 36H 10/1200Z 13.0N 90.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 11/0000Z 13.4N 92.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven

Barely a Cat 1 hurricane at 11pm... 75mph/988mb

^ Yeah, but its should be making landfall in several hours... took too long to get going

still a TS at 5... 70mph/992mb

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 208 PM EDT Sat Oct 8 2022 MDZ003>006-501>503-505-507-VAZ028>031-036>040-050>052-055-056-501- 502-505-506-WVZ050>053-055-502>504-090800- /O.CON.KLWX.FR.Y.0006.221009T0400Z-221009T1300Z/ Washington-Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore- Extreme Western Allegany-Central and Eastern Allegany- Northwest Montgomery-Northwest Howard-Northwest Harford- Frederick VA-Page-Warren-Clarke-Nelson-Albemarle-Greene-Madison- Rappahannock-Orange-Culpeper- Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Stafford-Spotsylvania- Northern Fauquier-Southern Fauquier-Western Loudoun- Eastern Loudoun-Hampshire-Morgan-Berkeley-Jefferson-Hardy- Eastern Grant-Western Mineral-Eastern Mineral- Including the cities of Hagerstown, Frederick, Ballenger Creek, Eldersburg, Westminster, Reisterstown, Cockeysville, Frostburg, Cumberland, Germantown, Damascus, Lisbon, Jarrettsville, Winchester, Luray, Shenandoah, Stanley, Front Royal, Berryville, Lovingston, Charlottesville, Stanardsville, Madison, Washington, Orange, Gordonsville, Culpeper, Dale City, Manassas, Woodbridge, Lake Ridge, Montclair, Falmouth, Fredericksburg, Warrenton, Turnbull, Purcellville, Leesburg, Ashburn, Sterling, Romney, Paw Paw, Martinsburg, Charles Town, Shepherdstown, Moorefield, Petersburg, Elk Garden, Antioch, Keyser, New Creek, Ridgeville, Russelldale, Headsville, and Fort Ashby 208 PM EDT Sat Oct 8 2022 ...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY... * WHAT...Temperatures as low as 34 will result in frost formation. * WHERE...Most of western, central, north central, and northern Maryland, northern and northwest Virginia, and all of the eastern panhandle of West Virginia. * WHEN...From midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Sunday. * IMPACTS...Frost could kill sensitive outdoor vegetation if left uncovered. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold.

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 912 AM EDT Sat Oct 8 2022 VAZ029-030-036>040-050-051-056-501-502-WVZ050-055-502>504-082030- /O.NEW.KLWX.FR.Y.0006.221009T0400Z-221009T1300Z/ Page-Warren-Nelson-Albemarle-Greene-Madison-Rappahannock-Orange- Culpeper-Spotsylvania-Northern Fauquier-Southern Fauquier- Hampshire-Hardy-Eastern Grant-Western Mineral-Eastern Mineral- Including the cities of Luray, Shenandoah, Stanley, Front Royal, Lovingston, Charlottesville, Stanardsville, Madison, Washington, Orange, Gordonsville, Culpeper, Fredericksburg, Warrenton, Turnbull, Romney, Moorefield, Petersburg, Elk Garden, Antioch, Keyser, New Creek, Ridgeville, Russelldale, Headsville, and Fort Ashby 912 AM EDT Sat Oct 8 2022 ...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY... * WHAT...Temperatures as low as 34 and light to calm winds will result in frost formation. * WHERE...Portions of central, northern and northwest Virginia and eastern West Virginia. * WHEN...From midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Sunday. * IMPACTS...Frost could kill sensitive outdoor vegetation if left uncovered. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold. &&

Tropical Storm Julia Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132022 1100 AM EDT Sat Oct 08 2022 Air Force Reserve reconnaissance data indicate that Julia is not a vertically stacked tropical cyclone. The plane first made an initial center fix to the north of the main area of deep convection and found that the central pressure had fallen to 994 mb. About an hour later, a second center fix was made three tenths of a degree farther south near the deep convection, although the lowest pressure there was only about 998 mb. The center has been placed in between the two fixes, hedging toward the lower pressure to the north. Julia's initial intensity is set at 55 kt based on the lowering of the central pressure and unanimous satellite classifications of T3.5. So far, the aircraft has measured peak 850-mb flight-level winds of 50 kt and reliable SFMR winds around 45 kt, so it's assumed the plane has not directly sampled the area of highest winds. Despite the uncertainty in Julia's initial position, it's clear that the storm continues to move quickly westward with an estimated motion of 270/18 kt. With strong ridging to the north, a continued fast westward trajectory is expected during the next couple of days, which should bring Julia's center inland over Nicaragua by early Sunday morning. If Julia's center survives the passage over Central America, it could move just offshore of or along the Pacific coasts of Nicaragua, Honduras, and El Salvador Sunday night and Monday. It still appears that there is about 15 kt of northwesterly or northerly shear affecting Julia, but model guidance indicates this should abate and then turn out of the east-northeast later today and tonight. Therefore, further strengthening is anticipated, and Julia is forecast to become a hurricane later today. It's important to keep in mind that Julia could have a higher intensity when it reaches the coast of Nicaragua than what is explicitly shown, since in this forecast landfall would occur between the 12- and 24-hour forecast times. In fact, SHIPS guidance suggests the intensity could be in the 75-80 kt range at 18 hours, which mirrors what was shown in the previous NHC forecast. Due to Julia's more southern and faster track, there is increasing global model support that the cyclone will be able to maintain a well-defined center and circulation while it crosses Central America, and it could also still be at tropical storm intensity when it reaches the Pacific side of Central America. However, even if it survives the crossing, most of the guidance shows the circulation becoming more diffuse or dissipating over the Pacific waters in 2 to 3 days. Based on the updated NHC forecast, and to account for the possibility of tropical-storm-force winds along the Pacific coast of Central America, tropical storm warnings and watches have been issued for the Pacific coasts of Nicaragua, Honduras, and El Salvador. Regardless of Julia's track and existence as a tropical cyclone, the evolving set up is likely to lead to heavy rains over Central America for several days, which could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in areas of mountainous terrain. Key Messages: 1. Julia is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane later today, and a Hurricane Warning is in effect for portions of the Nicaragua coast and the islands of Providencia and San Andres. Hurricane-force winds and a dangerous storm surge are expected in areas where the core of the system crosses the islands later today and moves onshore in Nicaragua early Sunday morning. 2. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides are expected across portions of Central America this weekend. Flash flooding is possible across the Isthmus of Tehuantepec in Mexico early next week. 3. There is an increasing chance that Julia could remain as a tropical storm while it moves across Central America, and tropical storm warnings and watches have been issued along the Pacific coasts of Nicaragua, Honduras, and El Salvador to account for the possibility of tropical-storm-force winds in those areas late Sunday and Monday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/1500Z 12.6N 79.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 09/0000Z 12.5N 81.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 09/1200Z 12.5N 84.3W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND 36H 10/0000Z 12.7N 86.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 48H 10/1200Z 13.2N 89.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER 60H 11/0000Z 13.7N 91.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg

65mph/994mb at 11am

In addition to NWS Marquette seeing snow as posted above

KDMH is back by the way

Tropical Storm Julia Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132022 500 AM EDT Sat Oct 08 2022 Julia is a strengthening tropical cyclone. Satellite imagery has shown an increase in persistent and deep convection occurring over the center, with an expanding area of cloud top temperatures colder than -80 deg C. Overnight data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters indicated the vertical structure of Julia is still organizing, with evidence of multiple low-level centers noted in the 850-mb flight level wind data. But, the aircraft reported flight-level winds of 59 kt and believable SFMR retrievals of 45-50 kt on its last pass through the northeastern quadrant of the cyclone. Based on these data, the initial intensity is set at 50 kt for this advisory. Weak deep-layer shear, abundant mid-level moisture, and SSTs around 29.5 degrees Celsius appear conducive for steady to rapid intensification of Julia during the next 24 h as it approaches Central America. In fact, the SHIPS Rapid Intensification Index shows a 63 percent chance of a 30 kt increase in intensity during the next 24 h. Given the strengthening noted tonight and the improved satellite structure, the NHC forecast calls for Julia to rapidly intensify into a hurricane later today and continue strengthening through landfall on Sunday. This forecast lies between the multi-model consensus aids and the stronger SHIPS and LGEM guidance. After landfall, the cyclone is forecast to weaken as it moves across the terrain of Central America. The estimated initial motion is westward at 265/16 kt. Julia is expected to continue moving quickly westward for the next day or so along the southern periphery of a strong mid-level ridge to its north. This motion should bring the center of Julia near San Andres and Providencia Islands this evening and over the coast of Nicaragua within the warning area early Sunday. Based on a southward shift in the track guidance, the NHC forecast has been adjusted in that direction to bring it closer to the multi-model consensus. As a result, the government of Nicaragua has extended Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings southward along the coast. There is still above average uncertainty regarding the future of Julia after landfall. While some models (HWRF, HMON, GFS) show the center largely remaining over land and dissipating, others (ECMWF and UKMET) show low-level vorticity associated with Julia or its remnants emerging over the eastern Pacific waters early next week. While it appears unlikely that the surface circulation would survive the topography of Nicaragua, this scenario could become more likely if there are additional southward adjustments to the track. For now, the NHC forecast shows weakening and dissipation by 72 h near the coast of Central America, but interests along the Pacific coasts of El Salvador, Honduras, and Nicaragua should monitor forecast updates. Regardless, the set up is likely to lead to heavy rains over Central America for several days, which could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in areas of mountainous terrain. Key Messages: 1. Julia is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane later today, and a Hurricane Warning is in effect for portions of the Nicaragua coast and the islands of Providencia and San Andres. Hurricane-force winds and a dangerous storm surge are expected in areas where the core of the system crosses the islands tonight and moves onshore in Nicaragua on Sunday. 2. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides are expected across portions of Central America this weekend. Flash flooding is possible across the Isthmus of Tehuantepec in Mexico early next week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0900Z 12.7N 78.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 08/1800Z 12.6N 80.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 09/0600Z 12.5N 82.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 09/1800Z 12.7N 85.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 48H 10/0600Z 13.2N 87.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 60H 10/1800Z 13.8N 89.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 72H 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart

still 60mph at 5am

60mph TS at 2am

BWI - 11/12 IAD - 11/4 DCA - 11/12 RIC - 11/15 Peak October temp at DCA - 79

Yeah, I see some sort of weird yellowish thing in the sky... not quite sure what it is... anybody know?

Beginning to wonder what the sun looks like

Been pouring here off and on the past hour or so

Ripping outside

....