yoda

Pulled from the SNE forum... I know it may be centric to them... but still good disco

LWX went WWAs for basically i81 corridor westward... including E WV and W MD

So the WDI will be high this year lol

18z GFS was lulz

Wow... what a game... what an ending

Hmmm

Just started reading it... but @40/70 Benchmark winter forecast is out. I know it may be more centric to SNE... but always an excellent read and you will always learn something in his outlooks

Nice Penguins win last night

Well written AFD from LWX this afternoon .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... The remnants of Hurricane Nicole, now Tropical Storm Nicole, will impact the area Friday into Friday night. Nicole will continue to weaken as the storm approaches the Mid-Atlantic, bringing the potential for multiple hazards to the region. With the ensemble mean low track near or just west of the Allegheny Front, the region will be in the warm sector of the decaying remnants. A strong southerly flow of 40-55 kts right above the surface will result in a rather dynamic wind field and advect Tds into the mid to upper 60s with PWs 3-4 SA above normal. Given the building instability and lift associated with the first quasi- warm frontal band, rain showers will likely overspread the region near or by daybreak Friday. Expect continued showers with isolated thunderstorms through the day, though coverage likely remains isolated to scattered in nature. By the afternoon once the first source of synoptic lift moves through, there could be a break of a few hours in the afternoon. By the evening, all attention will focus to the remnant low and south/southeast extending frontal feature which could be the focus for damaging winds and perhaps tornadoes. The track and speed of the low will ultimately determine how much instability rooted within the boundary layer remains post sunset due to diurnal constraints of instability this time of year. Given the strong wind field, any instability may be sufficient for the production of isolated severe thunderstorms. Will continue to monitor. Now for the hazards Heavy Rain Potential ... With the persistent south/southeast flow and moisture advection into the area, the Blue Ridge (southern Blue Ridge near Wintergreen) will be the focus for the highest QPF amounts (2-3", locally higher) through the event. With the persistent south/southeast flow, the area to the northwest of the Blue Ridge (Shenandoah Valley and the Hampshire to Hardy County area into Washington County) could actually downslope resulting in less QPF across that area. The secondary maximum in QPF is likely across the eastern slopes of the Allegheny Front (1-3"). Along and east of I-95 much lower amounts of an inch or less are expected. With the low tracking along or west of the Alleghenies, the forcing will be better in that area. To the east, the intermittent nature and lack of persistent forcing will result in lower amounts. Believe the relative lack or suppressed amounts of instability will help tamper the Flash Flood threat even though PWs are near 1.75". FFG is also the highest it has been in some time given the 2-3" departure from normal precipitation over the region from the past 30 days. With that being said, isolated to scattered instances of flooding are possible Friday and Friday night along and west of the Blue Ridge Mountains (especially in areas near higher terrain susceptible to poor drainage). All ensembles and MARFC keep rivers below any flood stages. Severe Thunderstorm Potential ... From an environmental standpoint, most ingredients will exist Friday afternoon/evening. The shear (50-60+ kts), SRH (100-300 m2/s2), LCLs (<1000m at times), SPC/STP (>1), extra/sub-tropical rainbands all are worrisome. However, there is considerably uncertainty regarding how much instability (CAPE) exists when the aforementioned band moves through the region (generally speaking near 7 PM through 1 AM) and remains rooted within the boundary layer. Some guidance has the instability elevated by the time this feature moves through. There could be discrete low-topped supercells as indicated by some guidance and supported by model soundings ahead of this feature during the afternoon hours. Regardless, severe thunderstorms capable of isolated damaging wind gusts and isolated tornadoes will be possible Friday evening. Damaging Wind Potential ... With a dynamic wind field just above the surface (40-55kts), the focus and tricky part of the forecast will be how much and if any of this mixes down to the surface Friday evening into the overnight. Model guidance diverges on if this makes it to the surface, but given the bias of some guidance to bring down too much rain on the backside of precipitation, have opted not to pursue Wind Advisories at this time. There is likely a 1-3 hour surge of enhanced winds (perhaps 30-45 mph) translating from SSW to NNE through the center of the CWA Friday evening into the overnight. Therefore, gusty winds may result in an isolated wind damage threat Friday evening through Friday night. The areas of greatest concern area especially along the higher ridges of the Allegheny Front, Blue Ridge, and Catoctin Mountains.

@high risk 18z NAM soundings have pretty impressive hodos from around 21z FRI to 03z SAT across the region... SBCAPE/MLCAPE are in the 200-400 range... but a little concerned about the TOR threat. SRH, along with low level and deep layer shear are pretty strong Hmmm... 21z FRI at KEZF is just not a good sounding (i.e. definite TOR signal there)

Good timing PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 1154 AM EST TUE NOV 8 2022 ...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WSR-88D WEATHER RADAR IN STERLING, VA PLANNED TO RETURN TO SERVICE BY WEDNESDAY EVENING... SINCE NOVEMBER 3, 2022, THE KLWX WSR-88D RADAR, OPERATED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING, VA, HAS BEEN DOWN FOR THE REPLACEMENT OF ITS EMERGENCY GENERATOR, FUEL TANKS, AND ACCOMPANYING COMPONENTS. THIS SCHEDULED MAINTENANCE IS RUNNING AHEAD OF SCHEDULE, AND THE RADAR IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO SERVICE BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. OF COURSE AN ISSUE COULD STILL ARISE TO UNEXPECTEDLY DELAY THIS. THIS MAINTENANCE IS IMPORTANT TO SUPPORT THE RADAR’S OPERATION DURING PERIODS OF COMMERCIAL POWER OUTAGES, INCLUDING WHEN HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS PRESENT OR IN THE VICINITY. THIS GENERATOR UPDATE IS ONE OF FIVE MAJOR PROJECTS OF THE NEXRAD SERVICE LIFE EXTENSION PROGRAM, A SERIES OF UPGRADES AND REPLACEMENTS THAT WILL KEEP OUR NATION’S NETWORK OF RADARS VIABLE INTO THE THE NEXT DECADE. NOAA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE, THE UNITED STATES AIR FORCE, AND THE FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION ARE INVESTING $150 MILLION IN THE SEVEN YEAR PROGRAM. THE FIRST PROJECT WAS THE INSTALLATION OF THE NEW SIGNAL PROCESSOR AND THE SECOND PROJECT WAS THE TRANSMITTER REFURBISHMENT. THE TWO REMAINING PROJECTS ARE THE REFURBISHMENT OF THE PEDESTAL AND EQUIPMENT SHELTERS. THE SERVICE LIFE EXTENSION PROGRAM WILL COMPLETE IN 2023. DURING THE DOWNTIME, WEATHER RADAR INFORMATION CAN BE GAINED FROM ADJACENT WSR-88D RADARS, INCLUDING: KDIX FT. DIX NJ KDOV DOVER DE KAKQ WAKEFIELD VA KFCX BLACKSBURG VA KRLX CHARLESTON WV KPBZ PITTSBURGH PA ADDITIONALLY, WEATHER RADAR INFORMATION CAN BE GAINED FROM NEARBY FAA TERMINAL WEATHER RADARS (TDWRS) LOCATED AT: TIAD WASHINGTON DULLES TDCA WASHINGTON NATIONAL TBWI BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON INTERNATIONAL TADW JOINT BASE ANDREWS FOR DIRECT ACCESS TO ANY OF THESE SURROUNDING RADAR SITES, GO TO THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE: HTTPS://RADAR.WEATHER.GOV A SINGLE RADAR SITE CAN BE VIEWED BY GOING TO THE “SELECT VIEW” MENU OPTION THEN CLICKING ON “LOCAL RADAR” TO SELECT A SINGLE RADAR SITE. THE KLWX WSR-88D IS PART OF A NETWORK OF 159 OPERATIONAL RADARS. THE RADAR OPERATIONS CENTER IN NORMAN, OKLAHOMA, PROVIDES LIFECYCLE MANAGEMENT AND SUPPORT FOR ALL WSR-88DS. FOR A RADAR MOSAIC LOOP HTTPS://RADAR.WEATHER.GOV THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE IN STERLING, VA CAN BE FOUND ON SOCIAL MEDIA AT @NWS_BALTWASH

Better let the NHC know then since their latest disco says barely any strengthening

There's not enough lulz for this post

MRGL risk of severe on Friday afternoon into Friday night per Day 3 SPC OTLK

00z GFS still drops 2-3 inches across much of VA from CHO to I95 corridor into C MD

Instability is below 500 J/KG... but those are some impressive looking hodos on the 00z NAM for Friday evening into early Saturday

Tropical Storm Nicole Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172022 1000 PM EST Tue Nov 08 2022 Nicole's satellite appearance has changed little since this afternoon. Deep convection is not very strong near the center of the cyclone at this time, and there appears to be some dry air intrusions into the circulation as evidenced by water vapor imagery. Nonetheless, wind and central pressure observations from NOAA and Air Force Hurricane aircraft indicate that the system is very close to hurricane strength and the current advisory intensity is set to 60 kt. Center fixes indicate that the cyclone is moving west-southwestward, or about 250/9 kt The track forecast philosophy is basically the same as in the previous advisory package. Nicole should move west-southwestward to westward, on the south side of an eastward-moving high pressure area, for the next 24 hours. Thereafter, the system should turn northwestward and then northward along the western side of the high. In 3-5 days, Nicole is likely to accelerate northeastward over the eastern United States, to the east of a large mid-level trough. The track model guidance has not changed significantly, nor has the official forecast. This is near the southern edge of the guidance suite for the next 1-2 days, and roughly in the middle of the guidance thereafter. Nicole will be moving over fairly warm SSTs of 27-28 degrees Celsius during the next day or so. However, the SHIPS guidance indicates that the vertical shear will be 25 kt or higher, with low-to mid-tropospheric humidities on the order of 50 percent, during the next 24 hours. Nicole is likely to become a hurricane soon but, given the marginal dynamic and thermodynamic environment, significant strengthening seems unlikely. The official intensity forecast is near or above the available model guidance, and closely follows the decay-SHIPS model after landfall. Weakening is expected after Nicole moves inland over Florida and Georgia and while it accelerates northeastward over the southeastern United States. The cyclone should complete extratropical transition by 72 hours and merge with another extratropical low near Atlantic Canada in 120 hours.

Afternoon AFD from LWX mentions severe weather threat LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... The long term period will begin with remnants of Nicole moving north through our area. Recent guidance is trending quicker than in previous days which would bring rain to the area Friday morning and lasting throughout the day. Heavy rain on Friday could lead to isolated to scattered instances of flooding with PWAT values nearing and greater than 2 inches. The track of remnants of Nicole will determine the amount and location of rainfall. Nevertheless, guidance indicates high probabilities of over an inch of rain and up to 4 inches of rain for the area. While CAPE is limited (less than 150 J/kg), there will be upward to 50 knots of bulk shear over our area Friday afternoon making thunderstorms and severe weather possible.

12z CMC looks like 2 to 3 inches of rain for the majority of the LWX CWA 12z GFS has the heaviest rain a bit further west along the BR... 2 to 4 inches

I made it

Thread been give

None of the 12z models have Nicole reaching hurricane status