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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 534 PM EST Tue Jan 31 2023 VAZ025-026-029-503-504-508-010645- /O.NEW.KLWX.WW.Y.0009.230201T0500Z-230201T1400Z/ Augusta-Rockingham-Page-Western Highland-Eastern Highland- Central Virginia Blue Ridge- 534 PM EST Tue Jan 31 2023 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY... * WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations of up to one inch and ice accumulations of a light glaze. * WHERE...Augusta, Highland, Page, and Rockingham Counties and the central Virginia Blue Ridge. * WHEN...From midnight tonight to 9 AM EST Wednesday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Wednesday morning commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The greatest chance for snow and ice accumulations will be in the higher elevations.

GFS has been holding a small band if accumulating snow from CHO to EZF to S MD for past few runs... let's see what 00z does

Riding the RGEM baby

Now time for KC to crush Philly in the Super Bowl

And that penalty will send KC to the Super Bowl

18z GFS now says late Tuesday morning into afternoon... but still just south of DC into EZF and S MD

Pivotal has it faster then TT

18z RGEM... all in

12z CMC would be a nice hit on late Sunday into early Monday between i81 and i95 corridors

12z CMC way better than the 00z run for most as well... except southern parts of the CWA

Slightly better than it actually

I'll take the 1-2 inches the GFS and RGEM show any day

Uh, the snow is falling at the 32 degrees region

Nudge north on 12z GFS at 51 compared to 06z at 48 re snow

12z RGEM remains a nice hit Wednesday morning

06z GFS continues its CHO eastward to EZF and into S MD... 1-3 with local 4" totals

06z RGEM a lil stronger with the snow totals for early Wed morning... more 2" totals showing up with some 3" as well N MD also does better this run

00z EURO throwing up some -40 to -60 wind chills Saturday morning

FWIW, 00z EURO wanted no part of anything tonight Only interesting thing on this run: 1.) Early Friday morning high as temps drop throughout the day into the 20s 2.) Temps Friday night into Saturday morning are single digits for all (W MD and usual colder locations go below zero). Wind Chill Advisories will be needed -- -5 to -15 across the region with -25 in the colder locations 3.) Saturday we sit in the "freezer" as highs do not go above 20 at DCA... N MD stays in the mid teens for highs. Wind chills in the -5 to 10 degree range all day across the region 4.) Sunday morning lows are in the teens for all Also, never seen DPs in the -20s before that the 00z EURO depicts for Saturday

What's odd to me is that looks suspiciously like a Miller A type storm on the 00z GFS for day 8 into day 9... ETA -- 00z CMC has the same idea.. but its too warm for everyone and track is along the coast

Its close... but its a i81 snowstorm... GFS claims snow as its best guess precip type on its soundings at DCA at 201 but its def not