yoda

LWX AFD from this morning... mentions the ICON again LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Deep and broad longwave troughing will span across nearly the entire width of the CONUS by Sunday morning, with high amplitude ridging on either side across the Eastern Pacific and North Atlantic. Locally, we`ll be situated within southwesterly flow aloft on the front side of the trough. A low amplitude shortwave will progress through the base of the trough and rapidly approach the area from the southwest during the day on Sunday. Model guidance is still showing a large amount of spread with respect to the handling of this disturbance. Amongst deterministic guidance, some models (the Euro, ICON, and UKMET) show a light snowfall event occurring on Sunday as this disturbance moves overhead, others (the Canadian) show a more amplified system with both ice and snow across the area, while others yet (the GFS) show no precipitation across the majority of the area. Such spread is also evident in ensemble modeling systems such as the EPS, GEFS, and GEPS. Probabilistically, a lighter snowfall event is the slightly favored solution, with a little over half the ensemble members showing a light snowfall event. There are a fair number of ensemble members that also show no precipitation to the east of the mountains. The heavier precipitation scenario with mixing (as advertised by the deterministic Canadian) appears to be a bit of an outlier solution within the probability space at this juncture. Any precipitation that occurs with this system should wind down Sunday evening, with dry conditions to the east of the mountains for Sunday night. Upslope snow showers will linger in the Alleghenies through Sunday night, and potentially even Monday morning.

Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 419 AM EST Thu Jan 16 2025 DCZ001-MDZ004>006-008-011-013-014-503>508-VAZ053-054-505-506-526- 527-161530- District of Columbia-Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore- Cecil-Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges-Anne Arundel- Northwest Montgomery-Central and Southeast Montgomery- Northwest Howard-Central and Southeast Howard-Northwest Harford- Southeast Harford-Fairfax-Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria- Western Loudoun-Eastern Loudoun-Northwest Prince William- Central and Southeast Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park- Including the cities of Washington, Frederick, Ballenger Creek, Eldersburg, Westminster, Reisterstown, Cockeysville, Elkton, Baltimore, Bowie, Suitland-Silver Hill, Clinton, College Park, Greenbelt, Laurel, Camp Springs, Glen Burnie, Annapolis, Severn, South Gate, Severna Park, Arnold, Odenton, Germantown, Damascus, Bethesda, Rockville, Gaithersburg, Silver Spring, Lisbon, Columbia, Ellicott City, Jarrettsville, Aberdeen, Reston, Herndon, Annandale, Centreville, Chantilly, McLean, Franconia, Arlington, Alexandria, Falls Church, Purcellville, Leesburg, Ashburn, Sterling, Haymarket, Dale City, Manassas, Woodbridge, Lake Ridge, and Montclair 419 AM EST Thu Jan 16 2025 ...POTENTIAL WINTER COMMUTING HAZARD FOR THE BALTIMORE AND WASHINGTON METRO AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING... There is a potential for hazardous commuting conditions for this afternoon and evening commute. A period of snow is POSSIBLE (a 30 to 50 percent chance) this afternoon and evening across the Baltimore and Washington metro areas with up to a half inch of accumulation on area roads. If this threat does materialize this afternoon and evening rush- hour, many roads could quickly turn snow covered. This could lead to dangerous traveling conditions on untreated surfaces. If commuting this afternoon and evening, be aware of the POSSIBILITY of travel disruptions. Plan ahead by allowing for extra travel time. Stay tuned for updates on this potential winter weather episode.

But you lost so much snow

Is doing something big at 228

6-12 with Kuchera for most

O Canada... we weenie for thee...

It has nothing but cold through 174

12z CMC is a miss... west lol for Sunday

Yes, +SN in TAH and NO at 156 on the 12z ICON lulz Freezing rain and 29 at KJAX at 162

FWIW, which we all know isn't much... but 12z ICON says it's 4 degrees at DCA at 7am Tuesday with a DP of -10

1-3 for most... 2-4 Delmarva

12z ICON is a quick hitter Sunday afternoon into the evening

I'll be there on Saturday for the Penguins win

Remember weenie when i said I was going to give you a snowstorm? Your right weatherman you did! I lied.

Ofc it's just taking the sounding verbatim. But that's why it's showing freezing rain

FWIW, 700 to 900mb goes above 0c

EZF is fine... you have to down toward Short Pump for that

KRDU at 204 @SnowGoose69

Not saying it's right, and we all know to take soundings on Day 8 with much salt, but 700mb to 900mb is above 0c in NC

Zwyts aka Deck Pic

No the storm is on the 23rd. Psu was just posting the entire run until then

8.5

12z euro on the 23rd

Oh hi Euro