yoda

tbh, that CCB from 210 on is really weak

FInally gets going at 216.. but its too late for us

lol 983 in perfect spot and its raining in DC at 210... weak CCB

Changes to rain i81 corridor and east with a 980s SLP over C VA at 198

Can you go back like 12 hours? most of those SLPs would be past us for precip IMO

Been out since 429pm

There is a TW out on it with spotter confirmed tornado

Meanwhile, ice storm warnings are up for the BR and W MD for tomorrow

15% tor probs dropped. 45% hail contour introduced in TX including DFW metro

Big shift west in MOD risk looks like

Definitely was not expecting a thunderstorm

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CST Wed Mar 01 2023 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTHEAST TEXAS...FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...NORTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... A regional severe-thunderstorm outbreak appears possible across parts of the southern Plains into the ArkLaTex and ArkLaMiss regions Thursday into Thursday night, with a few strong tornadoes, widespread damaging wind, and hail all possible. ...Synopsis... A deep mid/upper-level trough is forecast to become negatively tilted as it traverses the southern Plains on Thursday. A surface low is expected to steadily deepen somewhere near the Red River during the day, with more rapid deepening expected Thursday night as the cyclone moves northeastward toward the Ozarks. ...Southern Plains into the ArkLaMiss region and Southeast... A regional severe-thunderstorm outbreak still appears possible from parts of the southern Plains into ArkLaMiss vicinity, mainly Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. A Moderate Risk has been introduced where confidence is currently highest in the potential for widespread damaging wind and a few strong tornadoes. Early-day convection appears possible across north Texas into the ArkLaTex region and parts of the ArkLaMiss, which may persist through much of the day and limit the northward progression of the effective warm sector. Meanwhile, moderate instability will develop along/ahead of the cold front across parts of north/central TX, which will begin to surge eastward by late afternoon into the evening. Renewed thunderstorm development along the front will be possible as soon as mid afternoon, with coverage increasing markedly by early evening. A QLCS will likely develop and surge eastward toward the ArkLaTex region, and eventually toward the ArkLaMiss overnight. Strong deep-layer shear will be present across the entire region through the period, with low-level shear/SRH expected to increase near the ArkLaTex region by early evening, in conjunction with an intensifying low-level jet. Any early-day convection that can become rooted in the boundary layer could evolve into organized cells/clusters, with an attendant threat of all severe hazards. Uncertainty remains regarding the coverage and location of discrete warm-sector supercell development during the afternoon/evening, though that remains possible. Embedded supercells will also be possible within the QLCS that develops along the surging cold front. A few strong tornadoes (and also large hail) appear possible with any sustained discrete or embedded supercells that move into an increasingly favorable environment near the ArkLaTex region. Widespread damaging winds may also evolve with the anticipated QLCS Thursday night, along a with a threat of line-embedded tornadoes. Storms may tend to weaken late in the period, as they encounter weaker instability and the primary shortwave begins to eject away from the warm sector, but some threat for damaging wind and at least brief tornadoes will likely persist until the end of the period into parts of central/northern MS. ..Dean.. 03/01/2023

Dallas/Fort Worth is right on the border of ENH/MOD... SHV is inside MOD risk... Little Rock is in the ENH but MOD is just off to their SW

Large area of hatched tor probs and wind probs

MOD RISK for morning Day 2

18z GFS would be a severe kick in the ass and a way to end winter lol

Marcus Johansson traded to the Wild for a 3rd round pick

Will mentioned March 2-3 1960 as an analog... I wouldn't mind that

LWX has a really good discussion this morning about late next week in their morning AFD Beyond Wednesday, model guidance begins to diverge substantially. The synoptic scale pattern is a very complex one, as the aforementioned system from Wednesday will be lifting off toward the northeast. Meanwhile, a deep trough will reside over the western US, as a strong ridgebuilding event simultaneously occurs in the eastern Pacific. Further to our north, an upper low will circulate over Hudson Bay, with Wednesday`s system passing to its south. The highly complex interactions between all of these features are leading to a high amount of uncertainty in the forecast for both Thursday and Friday. The main uncertainty on Thursday is how much cold advection ensues behind the departing system from Wednesday. Forecast high temperatures in the GEFS and EPS on Thursday range from the 40s to near 70. There may be some showers around, especially during the morning hours, but there should be a trend toward drier condtions during the afternoon as any cold advection starts to occur. The forecast on Friday is even more uncertain. The strong ridgebuilding in the eastern Pacific on Wednesday into Thursday will have a tendency to build overtop the western US trough, potentially leading to an anticylonic wavebreak and the southern portion of the western US trough fracturing off into more of a southern stream closed low. With such a complex interaction occurring, the guidance is all over the place. Temperatures in both the EPS and GEFS range from the 30s to the 70s on Friday. Most guidance does have the southern portion of the western US trough (whether in the form of a closed low, or a a continual trough) turning into quite the potent system, and leading to a strong cyclogenesis event. Most solutions have this strong low tracking toward the area late Friday into Friday night. Potential solutions range from this low tracking to our northwest, and having thunderstorms, to the low tracking well to our south and missing us. Some solutions also produce a snowstorm. This system could potentially be a high impact weather event, so we`ll need to keep an eye on it over the upcoming week. At the moment though, uncertainty remains high, with many different solutions still on the table.

Kinda funny that the GFS and EURO basically switched places today/tonight

00z RGEM quite tasty too though...

00z NAM is hilarious... 2" PW into PG County

I was just being an ass seeing the new emoticon

Covering the grass will be just fine for me