yoda

Uh, hopefully thats not about to plow through metro Tupelo

TOG in Springville

Confirmed TOG in Springville, TN

Great... @weatherwiz is going to run naked seeing that

Mesoscale Discussion 0419 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0931 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023 Areas affected...Eastern Illinois...Indiana...Western and Central Kentucky Concerning...Tornado Watch 98... Valid 010231Z - 010430Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 98 continues. SUMMARY...A severe threat will continue over the next few hours across eastern Illinois and Indiana southward into western Kentucky. Tornadoes, wind damage and large hail will be possible with the stronger storms. Weather watch issuance could be necessary later this evening to the east of WW 98 in parts of far eastern Indiana and western Ohio. DISCUSSION...The latest WSR-88D radar imagery from Indianapolis shows scattered severe storms in eastern Illinois and western Indiana, including some supercells and short bowing line segments. A second cluster of strong to severe storms is located near the Ohio River in far southwest Indiana. To the west of these storm clusters, an axis of moderate instability is located from far southeast Missouri north-northeastward into eastern Illinois. At mid-levels, a 90 to 110 knot jet is located across southern Missouri. The exit region of the jet is moving across the lower Ohio Valley, which is associated with a broad zone of large-scale ascent and very strong deep-layer shear. In response, intense convective development will continue over the next few hours. Ahead of the mid-level jet, a 65 to 75 knot low-level jet is located from western Kentucky into central Indiana. This feature will create the strong low-level shear favorable for tornadoes, especially with the more dominant supercells. Large hail will also be likely with supercells. The greatest wind-damage potential should be concentrated along the more intense parts of line segments. ..Broyles.. 04/01/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...

2 confirmed fatalities in Wynne AR... police chief reports town "complete destruction"

Katie bar the door Severe Thunderstorm Warning ILC031-043-097-111-197-010200- /O.NEW.KLOT.SV.W.0023.230401T0052Z-230401T0200Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville 752 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023 The National Weather Service in Chicago has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Lake County in northeastern Illinois... Will County in northeastern Illinois... McHenry County in northeastern Illinois... DuPage County in northeastern Illinois... Cook County in northeastern Illinois... * Until 900 PM CDT. * At 752 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from near Beloit to near Sugar Grove to near Yorkville to near South Streator, moving east at 60 mph. HAZARD...90 mph wind gusts and two inch hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be heavily damaged or destroyed. Homes and businesses will have substantial roof and window damage. Expect extensive tree damage and power outages. * Severe thunderstorms will be near... Aurora and St. Charles around 800 PM CDT. Naperville, West Chicago, Shorewood, Warrenville and Dupage Airport around 805 PM CDT. Wheaton, Carol Stream, Plainfield, Lisle, Bloomingdale, Crest Hill and Winfield around 810 PM CDT. Bolingbrook, Downers Grove, Lombard, Romeoville, Addison, Glendale Heights, Woodridge, Glen Ellyn, Lockport and Darien around 815 PM CDT. Elmhurst, Elk Grove Village, Homer Glen, Hinsdale, Lemont, Burr Ridge, Oak Brook, Westmont, Villa Park and Bensenville around 820 PM CDT. Orland Park, Tinley Park, Ohare Airport, Melrose Park, Maywood, Brookfield, Mokena, Franklin Park, Palos Hills and Westchester around 825 PM CDT. Cicero, Oak Lawn, Berwyn, Oak Park, Austin, Burbank, Oak Forest, Alsip, Belmont Cragin and Dunning around 830 PM CDT. Chicago, West Town, Lincoln Park, Chicago Loop, Lake View, Irving Park, South Lawndale, Bridgeport, Chicago Lawn and West Ridge around 835 PM CDT. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... This is an EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION with tornado like wind speeds expected. Mobile homes and high profile vehicles are especially susceptible to winds of this magnitude and may be overturned. For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. These storms have the potential to cause serious injury and significant property damage. Intense thunderstorm lines can produce brief tornadoes and widespread significant wind damage. Although a tornado is not immediately likely, it is best to move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. These storms may cause serious injury and significant property damage. A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for north central and northeastern Illinois...and northwestern Indiana. && LAT...LON 4249 8780 4227 8783 4206 8767 4185 8761 4173 8752 4130 8753 4129 8801 4121 8801 4120 8824 4207 8826 4207 8824 4215 8824 4215 8859 4249 8861 TIME...MOT...LOC 0052Z 261DEG 52KT 4256 8898 4183 8847 4158 8846 4110 8878 TORNADO...POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...2.00 IN WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX WIND GUST...90 MPH

Confirmed TOG near Paxton and another one by Belvidere

Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Memphis TN 503 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023 ARC035-037-312230- /O.CON.KMEG.TO.W.0035.000000T0000Z-230331T2230Z/ Crittenden AR-Cross AR- 503 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023 ...TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR PARKIN AND EARLE... ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 PM CDT FOR NORTHERN CRITTENDEN AND EAST CENTRAL CROSS COUNTIES... At 501 PM CDT, a confirmed large and destructive tornado was located over Parkin, moving east at 50 mph. TORNADO EMERGENCY for Parkin and Earle. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...Deadly tornado. SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado. At 500 PM, trained spotters confirmed a large tornado moving across HWY 64 at Riverfront in west Parkin. IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes, businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction is possible. Locations impacted include... Earle, Parkin, Gilmore, Jericho, Turrell, Clarkedale, Smithdale, Three Forks, Togo, Booker, Lansing, Duvall, Lambethville, Colton, Twist, Stacy, Cloar, Galilee, Heafer and Coldwater. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... To repeat, a large, extremely dangerous, and potentially deadly tornado is on the ground. To protect your life, TAKE COVER NOW! Move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If in a mobile home, a vehicle or outdoors, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. Heavy rainfall may hide this tornado. Do not wait to see or hear the tornado. TAKE COVER NOW!

Rare, well IMO, Storm warnings up for parts of the Tidal Potomac as well as parts of the Chesapeake Bay waters

High Wind Warning up for DC/BWI metros URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 229 PM EDT Fri Mar 31 2023 DCZ001-MDZ004>006-011-013-014-503>506-VAZ040-053-054-501-505-506- 526-527-010230- /O.UPG.KLWX.HW.A.0002.230401T1600Z-230402T0400Z/ /O.NEW.KLWX.HW.W.0002.230401T1600Z-230402T0400Z/ District of Columbia-Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore- Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges-Anne Arundel- Northwest Montgomery-Central and Southeast Montgomery- Northwest Howard-Central and Southeast Howard-Rappahannock- Fairfax-Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Northern Fauquier- Western Loudoun-Eastern Loudoun-Northwest Prince William- Central and Southeast Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park- Including the cities of Washington, Frederick, Ballenger Creek, Eldersburg, Westminster, Reisterstown, Cockeysville, Baltimore, Bowie, Suitland-Silver Hill, Clinton, College Park, Greenbelt, Laurel, Camp Springs, Glen Burnie, Annapolis, Severn, South Gate, Severna Park, Arnold, Odenton, Germantown, Damascus, Bethesda, Rockville, Gaithersburg, Silver Spring, Lisbon, Columbia, Ellicott City, Reston, Herndon, Annandale, Centreville, Chantilly, McLean, Franconia, Arlington, Alexandria, Falls Church, Warrenton, Purcellville, Leesburg, Ashburn, Sterling, Haymarket, Dale City, Manassas, Woodbridge, Lake Ridge, and Montclair 229 PM EDT Fri Mar 31 2023 ...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT SATURDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...Southwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph Saturday afternoon, becoming northwest 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 60 mph Saturday evening. * WHERE...Portions of central and northern Maryland, The District of Columbia, and northern Virginia. * WHEN...From noon Saturday to midnight EDT Saturday night. The strongest winds are expected Saturday evening. * IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

Mesoscale Discussion 0395 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023 Areas affected...portions of southeastern Missouri and southwestern Illinois Concerning...Tornado Watch 93...94... Valid 311753Z - 311930Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 93, 94 continues. SUMMARY...The severe threat may gradually increase over the next couple of hours as storms in northern AR mature and shift northeastward. Strong shear downstream may support the potential for strong long-track tornadoes. Additional storms are possible later in the day. DISCUSSION...As of 1745 UTC, regional radar imagery showed a cluster of strong to severe storms exiting northern AR into portions of southeastern MO. Likely at the eastern edge of diurnal destabilization, these storms have been slowly maturing over the last 90 minutes. Already displaying supercell characteristics, these storms are expected to move into a destabilizing and strongly sheared environment across southeastern MO, southern IL and western KY later this afternoon and into the evening. The initial severe threat is likely to be large hail as storms may remain slightly elevated and the environment destabilizes. As remaining MLCINH is eroded, area RAP sounding show the environment becoming potentially favorable for significant tornadoes with 0-1 km SRH of 300-500 m2/s2 and STP values of 4-5. The initial storms may be somewhat slow to mature as inhibition is overcome, but multiple rounds of convection appear likely with clearing skies and cumulus streets evident on visible imagery farther west. HRRR and WOFS guidance show multiple supercells with the potential for all hazards through this evening. ..Lyons/Hart.. 03/31/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...SGF...

Mesoscale Discussion 0394 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023 Areas affected...far northern MO...southern IA Concerning...Tornado Watch 93... Valid 311751Z - 311915Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 93 continues. SUMMARY...Tornado potential will likely increase through 200-230pm CDT. Large to very large hail (2-3 inches diameter) is possible with the more intense supercells. DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows explosive supercell development across northern MO into southern IA. Surface temperatures have warmed into the low-mid 70s with surface dewpoints in the 60-62 deg F range. The latest RAP forecast soundings show very steep surface to 300-mb lapse rates (7.5 deg C/km) with impressive southwesterly speed shear with height. As the supercells mature and the surface low deepens through mid afternoon, some backing of near-surface winds is expected with low-level hodographs enlarging through 2-3pm. As this hodograph change occurs, tornado potential will markedly increase. Very large low-level buoyancy (0-3 km MLCAPE 200-300 J/kg) and the intensifying low-level mesocyclones will combine to support the potential for strong tornadoes with supercells as they rapidly move northeast into south-central IA and approach the I-80 corridor. ..Smith.. 03/31/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...EAX...

Mod risk just got shoved way east into E IN

Hope everyone stays safe and if chasing... don't be stupid

April 2012 apparently per the threads

esoscale Discussion 0388 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0836 AM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023 Areas affected...Far eastern KS into MO...southern IA...western IL Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 311336Z - 311500Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...The severe thunderstorm threat will increase substantially through the morning. Tornado Watch issuance is likely. DISCUSSION...Elevated convection has recently intensified over eastern KS, in association with a subtle lead shortwave trough ejecting in advance of a larger/more intense trough moving toward the central Plains. A strong low-level jet will support rapid airmass modification downstream of the ongoing convection into MO and southern IA, and surface-based convection will likely develop later this morning as the lead shortwave and ongoing convection move quickly east-northeastward. Regional 12Z soundings depict very favorable midlevel lapse rates and strong deep-layer shear. The ongoing elevated convection will pose a risk of hail, with all hazards becoming possible later this morning, as the potential for surface-based supercells increases. If any surface-based supercell can become established this morning, favorable low-level shear could support some strong tornado threat with this lead convection into the afternoon, along with a risk of very large hail. While some uncertainty remains regarding the convective evolution this morning, Tornado Watch issuance will likely be needed for at least parts of the MCD area by 15Z. ..Dean/Hart.. 03/31/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...DMX...EAX...

Where is that from?

Next SPC OTLK is at 1630z... or 1230pm

From the March disco obs thread

I think that is the largest hatched area I have ever seen for TOR probs on the new Day 1

Who's ready for our favorite wind? URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1204 PM EDT Thu Mar 30 2023 MDZ003-502-VAZ025>031-504-507-508-WVZ050>053-055-502-504-506- 310015- /O.EXA.KLWX.HW.A.0002.230401T1200Z-230402T0600Z/ Washington-Central and Eastern Allegany-Augusta-Rockingham- Shenandoah-Frederick VA-Page-Warren-Clarke-Eastern Highland- Northern Virginia Blue Ridge-Central Virginia Blue Ridge- Hampshire-Morgan-Berkeley-Jefferson-Hardy-Eastern Grant- Eastern Mineral-Eastern Pendleton- Including the cities of Hagerstown, Cumberland, Staunton, Waynesboro, Stuarts Draft, Harrisonburg, Strasburg, Woodstock, Mount Jackson, New Market, Winchester, Luray, Shenandoah, Stanley, Front Royal, Berryville, Monterey, Big Meadows, Wintergreen, Romney, Paw Paw, Martinsburg, Charles Town, Shepherdstown, Moorefield, Petersburg, Antioch, Keyser, New Creek, Ridgeville, Russelldale, Headsville, Fort Ashby, Brandywine, Franklin, Oak Flat, Ruddle, and Sugar Grove 1204 PM EDT Thu Mar 30 2023 ...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...West winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 60 mph possible. * WHERE...Portions of north central and western Maryland, central, northwest and western Virginia and eastern and panhandle West Virginia. * WHEN...From Saturday morning through late Saturday night. * IMPACTS...Damaging winds could blow down trees and power lines. Widespread power outages are possible. Travel could be difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

SPC AC 301732 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 PM CDT Thu Mar 30 2023 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN IOWA INTO NORTHWEST ILLINOIS AND FAR NORTHEAST MISSOURI...AND ALSO ACROSS NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...EXTREME WESTERN KENTUCKY...WESTERN TENNESSEE...AND FAR NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Intense and widespread severe thunderstorms are expected Friday afternoon into the overnight hours across portions of the Middle Mississippi Valley and Mid-South vicinity, eastward to the Lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Intense, damaging gusts and several tornadoes (some strong and long-track) are expected. ...A regional outbreak of severe storms is expected on Friday across parts of the Mid-Mississippi Valley and also into the Mid-South... ...Synopsis... A deep mid/upper-level trough and attendant 100 kt midlevel jet will move quickly eastward from the central Plains into parts of the MS Valley and Midwest on Friday. A surface low will deepen as it moves across IA toward the Great Lakes region, as a cold front sweeps eastward through parts of the Great Plains into the mid-MS Valley. In advance of the cold front, low-level moisture will stream northward across a broad warm sector from the ArkLaTex region into parts of the lower/mid MS Valley and Midwest. ...Mid-MS Valley vicinity into IN/lower MI... Rapid destabilization and increasing large-scale ascent will support thunderstorm development by early/mid afternoon across parts of IA into northern MO. Very strong deep-layer shear (effective shear in excess of 60 kt) and MLCAPE increasing to 1000-1500 J/kg (locally greater) will support organized convection, with initial supercell development expected somewhere over central IA into north-central MO. Very large hail will be the initial threat, given steep midlevel lapse rates and cold temperatures aloft. Some uncertainty remains regarding the convective mode evolution with time, but a few semi-discrete supercells are expected to move into an environment with stronger low-level shear/SRH across eastern IA into northwest IL by late afternoon, posing a threat for a couple strong tornadoes. Evolution into small clusters or bowing segments is expected, resulting in an increasing threat of severe/damaging winds in addition to a continued threat of a few tornadoes and sporadic hail. Organized convection will spread eastward into parts of IN/southern MI Friday night. Instability will weaken with eastward extent, but some threat for damaging wind and a couple of tornadoes will persist before a more definitive weakening trend occurs overnight into early Saturday morning. ...ArkLaTex/Mid South vicinity into the TN/lower OH Valleys... A concerning scenario still appears possible across portions of the MO Bootheel, northeast AR, western TN/KY and far northwest MS vicinity during the afternoon/evening. At least mid-60s F dewpoints are expected beneath modest midlevel lapse rates. This will support 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE amid intense vertical shear. Forecast soundings indicate 0-1 km SRH increasing to around 400 m2/s2 by early afternoon. Thunderstorms are expected to develop by early afternoon ahead of the cold front within a pre-frontal trough/low-level confluence zone. Storm motion near 50 kt with supercell wind profiles will support cells capable of significant and long-track tornadoes. With time, upscale growth into a QLCS is expected, and intense wind gusts will be possible in addition to mesovortex tornadoes. The threat for damaging gusts and a few line-embedded tornadoes will spread into parts of the TN and lower OH Valleys Friday night, with a gradual weakening trend eventually expected overnight as storms move into increasingly weak buoyancy with eastward extent. ..Dean.. 03/30/2023

SPC AC 301732 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 PM CDT Thu Mar 30 2023 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN IOWA INTO NORTHWEST ILLINOIS AND FAR NORTHEAST MISSOURI...AND ALSO ACROSS NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...EXTREME WESTERN KENTUCKY...WESTERN TENNESSEE...AND FAR NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Intense and widespread severe thunderstorms are expected Friday afternoon into the overnight hours across portions of the Middle Mississippi Valley and Mid-South vicinity, eastward to the Lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Intense, damaging gusts and several tornadoes (some strong and long-track) are expected. ...A regional outbreak of severe storms is expected on Friday across parts of the Mid-Mississippi Valley and also into the Mid-South... ...Synopsis... A deep mid/upper-level trough and attendant 100 kt midlevel jet will move quickly eastward from the central Plains into parts of the MS Valley and Midwest on Friday. A surface low will deepen as it moves across IA toward the Great Lakes region, as a cold front sweeps eastward through parts of the Great Plains into the mid-MS Valley. In advance of the cold front, low-level moisture will stream northward across a broad warm sector from the ArkLaTex region into parts of the lower/mid MS Valley and Midwest. ...Mid-MS Valley vicinity into IN/lower MI... Rapid destabilization and increasing large-scale ascent will support thunderstorm development by early/mid afternoon across parts of IA into northern MO. Very strong deep-layer shear (effective shear in excess of 60 kt) and MLCAPE increasing to 1000-1500 J/kg (locally greater) will support organized convection, with initial supercell development expected somewhere over central IA into north-central MO. Very large hail will be the initial threat, given steep midlevel lapse rates and cold temperatures aloft. Some uncertainty remains regarding the convective mode evolution with time, but a few semi-discrete supercells are expected to move into an environment with stronger low-level shear/SRH across eastern IA into northwest IL by late afternoon, posing a threat for a couple strong tornadoes. Evolution into small clusters or bowing segments is expected, resulting in an increasing threat of severe/damaging winds in addition to a continued threat of a few tornadoes and sporadic hail. Organized convection will spread eastward into parts of IN/southern MI Friday night. Instability will weaken with eastward extent, but some threat for damaging wind and a couple of tornadoes will persist before a more definitive weakening trend occurs overnight into early Saturday morning. ...ArkLaTex/Mid South vicinity into the TN/lower OH Valleys... A concerning scenario still appears possible across portions of the MO Bootheel, northeast AR, western TN/KY and far northwest MS vicinity during the afternoon/evening. At least mid-60s F dewpoints are expected beneath modest midlevel lapse rates. This will support 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE amid intense vertical shear. Forecast soundings indicate 0-1 km SRH increasing to around 400 m2/s2 by early afternoon. Thunderstorms are expected to develop by early afternoon ahead of the cold front within a pre-frontal trough/low-level confluence zone. Storm motion near 50 kt with supercell wind profiles will support cells capable of significant and long-track tornadoes. With time, upscale growth into a QLCS is expected, and intense wind gusts will be possible in addition to mesovortex tornadoes. The threat for damaging gusts and a few line-embedded tornadoes will spread into parts of the TN and lower OH Valleys Friday night, with a gradual weakening trend eventually expected overnight as storms move into increasingly weak buoyancy with eastward extent. ..Dean.. 03/30/2023