yoda

Norman Twitter is fascinating

Uh oh Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Norman OK 945 PM CDT Wed Apr 19 2023 OKC125-200315- /O.CON.KOUN.TO.W.0048.000000T0000Z-230420T0315Z/ Pottawatomie OK- 945 PM CDT Wed Apr 19 2023 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1015 PM CDT FOR NORTH CENTRAL POTTAWATOMIE COUNTY... At 945 PM CDT, a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado was located near Tecumseh, moving east at 25 mph. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...Damaging tornado. SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado. IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes, businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction is possible. Locations impacted include... Shawnee, Tecumseh, Earlsboro, and Bethel Acres. This includes Interstate 40 between mile markers 191 and 194. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... To repeat, an extremely dangerous and potentially deadly tornado is on the ground. To protect your life, TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a storm shelter, safe room, or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. Tornadoes are extremely difficult to see and confirm at night. Do not wait to see or hear the tornado. TAKE COVER NOW! && LAT...LON 3524 9700 3532 9703 3536 9696 3540 9678 3524 9678 TIME...MOT...LOC 0245Z 255DEG 23KT 3529 9697 TORNADO...OBSERVED TORNADO DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE MAX HAIL SIZE...1.75 IN

Those tornado warning boxes are covering like three counties... but there are 6 different ones

^ Sun and 65-75 will be perfect IMO for late April

Day 2 ENH up for Saturday

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/36180941/sources-josh-harris-non-exclusive-deal-buy-commanders

What exactly is a squeegee line lol LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A negatively tilted upper level trough will dig into the Ohio River Valley on Sunday as the associated low moves over the Great Lakes. A few models show the trough becoming cutoff as it moves eastward creating uncertainty in the forecast. Either way, the associated cold front will cross the region Sunday afternoon into Sunday night bringing rain showers and thunderstorms. 12z guidance from both the ECMWF/GFS have the front arriving in the west of the Blue Ridge after 22z/6pm before pushing eastward late Sunday night into early Monday morning. As for severe weather, the threat is dependent on timing. The earlier the front the more CAPE to work with compared to the latter. For now, thinking a "squeegee line" of gusty showers and perhaps a thunderstorm Sunday evening into Sunday night. CAPE values sit between 400-800 j/kg with 0-6km bulk effective shear values modeled at 45-60kts. Wind would be the primary threat from this line as it pulls through. Much needed rain will also accompany this boundary, but not enough to quell the current drought/fire weather concerns.

Finally https://www.wusa9.com/article/sports/nfl/washington-commanders/washington-commanders-sale-dan-snyder-josh-harris-magic-johnson-mitchell-rales/65-8b8b6966-46d2-4316-b0cb-fd9202857db4

Nope According to NFL Network’s Tom Pelissero, the Ravens backed up the Brinks truck for Beckham Jr., giving him $15 million in guaranteed money. The breakdown of the contract includes a $1.165 million base salary, a $13.835 million signing bonus, and an extra $3 million in reachable incentives. https://www.yahoo.com/sports/ravens-backed-brinks-truck-odell-225119749.html

Should get a couple tenths with this last little round of showers coming in I think

Pretty nice dual hail cores just south of LYH

Afternoon AFD from LWX for tomorrow's threat SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... A cold front will cross the Appalachians Thursday morning, then slowly press east through the day. Summer-like heat and humidity will result in building instability ahead of the front. Convergence along the boundary and height falls aloft signal a potential for widespread shower and thunderstorm activity, and moderately strong deep-layer shear will likely tend to organize any convection that develops. Although the shear is favorable for supercells, the shear vector and storm motions may tend to align parallel to the approaching front; this suggests a more linear storm mode. Should more discrete activity persist, there may be a more substantial hail and wind risk, perhaps even a conditional tornado threat near/east of I-95 where flow will be back due to a bay/river breeze. Otherwise, gusty to locally damaging wind gusts would be the primary threat. There is uncertainty in the extent of instability - morning cloud cover could temper this - but overall the relatively higher chances for strong to severe thunderstorms appear to be between noon and 5pm south of I-70 and east of the Blue Ridge Mountains. The front will slowly push offshore through the end of the week. Dry air will gradually work into the region, but lingering moisture and mid/upper jet forcing may lead to lingering showers especially across central VA to southern MD.

Also interesting are the soundings for the area today... especially north and west of DC on the 12z NAM Nest and 12z NAM

Right at peak time for severe... 19z to 21z

Afternoon AFD from LWX sounds interesting SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... A lead wave ahead of a frontal system over the Ohio River Valley will approach the area late Wednesday. Ridging will crest over the area before heights begin to fall by Wednesday night. Given the increasingly warm and unstable airmass, as well as some added lift from terrain and the approach system to the west, a few thunderstorms could develop mainly west of the Blue Ridge late Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night. Sufficient shear will be present for storm organization, so a couple of strong to severe thunderstorms can`t be ruled out. The frontal system is set to cross the region on Thursday. Cooling air moving in aloft above unseasonably warm and moist air near the surface will likely result in moderate instability. This coupled with moderately strong shear and forcing along the approaching front should result in widespread showers and thunderstorms, some of which could become capable of producing severe weather in the form of damaging wind gusts and large hail. Tornado potential is a bit more uncertain given relatively weaker flow closer to the surface, but there is enough shear for supercells. Also, any boundary interactions (terrain/bay/river breeze circulations) could enhance this activity. Temperatures will be very warm with highs well into the 80s and lows in the 60s to around 70 east of the mountains Wednesday into Thursday, 20 to 30 degrees above normal and more akin to summer than spring. Temperatures will take a tumble Thursday night behind the front.

Discussion was pretty decent as well Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Tue Apr 04 2023 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms posing at least some risk for severe weather are possible across parts of the Mid Atlantic and Deep South Texas Thursday. ...Synopsis... Within the main branch of split westerlies emanating from the Pacific, models indicate that a broad, occluded cyclone, initially centered near James Bay, will continue to weaken during this period. Renewed cyclogenesis may occur farther east, across northern Quebec through Newfoundland and Labrador, but it appears that this will remain modest in strength. The associated cold front trailing to the south is forecast to advance from the upper Ohio Valley and lee of the lower Great Lakes across much of the northern into middle Atlantic by late Thursday night, as the remnant mid-level troughing accelerates eastward and suppresses mid-level short wave ridging initially building across New England and the Canadian Maritimes. In lower latitudes, prominent mid-level ridging appears likely to be maintained, centered over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and Florida Peninsula, and a considerable influence across much of the Southeast. Beneath its northwestern periphery, the trailing flank of the cold front is expected to weaken while slowly advancing across the northwestern Gulf coast vicinity. However, seasonably moist return flow will persist along/above it, downstream of low amplitude mid-level troughing across the subtropical eastern Pacific into the northern Mexican Plateau. ...Mid Atlantic... Preceding the cold front, models continue indicate that low-level moisture return coupled with daytime heating will support modest destabilization east of the Allegheny Mountains by Thursday afternoon. Scattered storms probably will initiate along the higher terrain, with at least deep-layer shear conducive to supercells structures posing a risk for severe wind and hail. Tornado potential remains a bit more uncertain. Storms are likely to gradually spread off the higher terrain with the mid-level height falls, and they could eventually consolidate into an organizing line or cluster overspreading coastal areas with potential for damaging wind gusts. It does not appear out of the question that severe weather probabilties could be increased further in later outlooks for this period.

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1203 AM CDT Mon Apr 03 2023 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI INTO SOUTHEASTERN IOWA...NORTHWESTERN AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS... ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE MODERATE RISK ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN MISSOURI....CENTRAL AND EASTERN IOWA...NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS...AS WELL AS PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN TEXAS...SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA...MUCH OF ARKANSAS...INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms appear likely to develop late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night across the lower Missouri Valley into southern portions of the Upper Midwest, and across parts of the southeastern Great Plains into portions of the Mid South. These could pose a risk for a few strong tornadoes, large hail and damaging wind gusts. ...Synopsis... As initially amplified mid-level ridging over the mid-latitude eastern Pacific gradually becomes suppressed, models indicate that downstream troughing will broaden from the Great Basin into the Mississippi Valley. This will be lead by a vigorous short wave trough, which is forecast to be accompanied by continuing strong surface cyclogenesis from the central Great Plains into the Upper Midwest, and building downstream mid-level ridging across the Upper Ohio Valley into Ontario, as well as across the northeastern Gulf of Mexico into Southeast. An intensifying southwesterly mid/upper jet streak (including speeds in excess of 100 kt at 500 mb) nosing across the central Great Plains through Upper Midwest will contribute to strong deep-layer shear within the warm sector of the cyclone. At the same time, intensification of southerly lower-level flow (to 50-70+ kt around 850 mb) likely will contribute to large clockwise-curved low-level hodographs. This could potentially contribute to an environment conducive to supercells and organizing lines or clusters capable of producing strong tornadoes and damaging winds, where large-scale forcing for ascent and thermodynamic profiles can become favorable. However, among a number of substantive lingering uncertainties, the quality of the boundary-layer moisture return from the Gulf of Mexico remains in question. Due to (at least initially) relatively shallow boundary-layer depth, downward mixing of drier air might impact sizable pockets of the potentially broad warm sector through the day, based on model output. Also, ahead of the mid/upper troughing, destabilization associated with large-scale ascent and an influx of high-level moisture from the subtropical Pacific may contribute to convective development which tends to saturate and stabilize lapse rates down into the mid-levels, across much of the Ozark Plateau into middle Mississippi Valley. While it appears that this will not completely erode the capping elevated mixed-layer air, thickening cloud cover aloft may inhibit surface heating and suppress potential thunderstorm development in the absence of lift to overcome the inhibition. ...Great Plains into the Mississippi Valley... Both the latest NAM and Rapid Refresh appear increasingly suggestive that the dryline could surge east-northeastward across southwestern Iowa and northwestern/west central Missouri, at least above the surface, by mid to late afternoon, in response to the progression of at least one speed maximum within the mid-level flow. Model output generally indicates that largest CAPE will become focused ahead of this feature, and south of the warm front advancing northward across central Iowa/northern Illinois during the late afternoon. And the dryline might provide a focus for sustained discrete supercell development with the potential to produce strong tornadoes while propagating northeastward across northeastern Missouri and southeastern Iowa into northwestern and west central Illinois through early evening. In the wake of this activity, as the cold front begins to overtake the dryline and advance southeastward, various model output continues to suggest that the evolution of an organizing line or cluster of storms is possible. This may pose a risk for large hail, damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a few tornadoes while propagating east-southeastward across the lower Missouri/middle Mississippi Valley vicinity into Tuesday night. Farther south, developments initially along the dryline and then ahead of the southeastward advancing cold front remain a bit more unclear. However, there has been a persistent signal within the model output that a narrow corridor of more substantive boundary-layer moistening could provide a focus for enhanced severe weather potential by Tuesday evening. It is possible that associated destabilization may become aligned with the strong deep-layer mean flow, possibly allowing for the evolution of one or two long track supercells, ahead of a developing squall line. ..Kerr.. 04/03/2023

Um, all of a sudden very quiet here as the next wave if wind is coming

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 903 PM EDT SAT APR 01 2023 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0854 PM NON-TSTM WND GST BWI MARSHALL AIRPORT 39.17N 76.68W 04/01/2023 M63 MPH ANNE ARUNDEL MD ASOS && EVENT NUMBER LWX2300828

18z GFS has some interesting soundings just south of DCA at 21z Wednesday

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 843 PM EDT SAT APR 01 2023 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0820 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 E WOODSBORO 39.54N 77.26W 04/01/2023 M68 MPH FREDERICK MD MESONET && EVENT NUMBER LWX2300819

Looks like another line of showers coming off the BR

Same here

Uh, hopefully thats not about to plow through metro Tupelo