yoda

12z Euro has SLP in SC at 126... retrograde it into NE GA by 144 Looks like no rain makes it into the LWX CWA at all - no precipitation whatsoever through 06z Monday for the entire region

Little bow in Fauquier County on radar

Looks like you are getting at least a bit of rain now per radar

Never seen a 3 county Tornado Watch before

Confirmed TOG near Cole

That escalated quickly for tomorrow

Confirmed TOG in Brown County, TX Tornado Warning National Weather Service San Angelo TX 652 PM CDT Thu May 4 2023 The National Weather Service in San Angelo has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Northeastern Brown County in west central Texas... * Until 715 PM CDT. * At 652 PM CDT, a tornado producing storm was located near May, moving east at 35 mph. HAZARD...Damaging tornado. SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. * This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of northeastern Brown County, including the following locations... Owens. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... To repeat, a tornado is on the ground. TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. && LAT...LON 3181 9898 3199 9903 3202 9889 3186 9877 3184 9877 TIME...MOT...LOC 2352Z 258DEG 32KT 3192 9892 TORNADO...OBSERVED

EF-3 preliminary rating

What am I missing here?

Sun is out here... very nice evening coming up on tap

Thunderstorms please

000 NWUS51 KLWX 230039 LSRLWX PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 836 PM EDT SAT APR 22 2023 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0158 PM TORNADO 1 ESE POOLESVILLE 39.14N 77.40W 04/22/2023 MONTGOMERY MD NWS STORM SURVEY EF0 TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN FOR AROUND A MINUTE, WITH 75 MPH WINDS, 100 YARD PATH LENGTH, AND 25 YARD PATH WIDTH ALONG DOWDEN CIRCLE NEAR STEVENS PARK. THERE WERE TWO SOFTWOOD TREES UPROOTED AND ONE SOFTWOOD TREE WAS SNAPPED WITH THE DAMAGE LAYING TO THE NORTHWEST. THERE WAS LEAF SPLATTER ON ALL SIDES OF A HOUSE. A THREE FOOT DIAMETER PINE TREE WAS SNAPPED ABOUT SIX FEET UP WITH THE DAMAGE LAYING TO THE NORTH. AN APPLE TREE WAS ALSO SNAPPED. && EVENT NUMBER LWX2300986

Looking interesting near Warrenton

Looks like another little line developed and is moving in

What is that near Gainesville/Haymarket area on radar?

LWX morning disco re the threat also looks nice .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... A deep mid/upper low will lift from the Great Lakes into Ontario Saturday. A lead shortwave will take on a negative tilt as it approaches and crosses the area during this time. Strong upper-level divergence beneath a coupled jet structure and strong PVA are expected to cross the area during peak heating. In the low levels, a strong cold front will be moving across the area. Strong and deep convergence will aid in lift, compensating for a lack of stronger CAPE given modest moisture return. Still, CAPE values of 300-800 J/kg are expected right along the front. Strong surface-3km AGL shear of 35-50 kts is expected along the front as well, along with some backed near-surface flow and SRH of 100-250 m2/s2. A dry slot in the morning will lead to ample surface heating near/east of I-81 and especially in the I-95 corridor (where dew points will also be a touch higher). A few discrete cells (possible supercellular activity) may form during the midday to early afternoon hours just ahead of the front posing a risk of gusty winds, hail, or a couple brief tornadoes. Then, as the strongly forced frontal system crosses, a squall line will likely develop. This line may contain strong to damaging wind gusts, with a continued conditional risk of spin- ups given the strong shear. The intensity of convection may further be aided by steep mid-level lapse rates of 7-8 C/km in the 700-500 hPa layer along and ahead of the front. A low-level jet of 40+ kts at 850 hPa will advect in higher moisture content (i.e. PWs of 1-1.5") right along the front. Flow may be briefly boundary-parallel, resulting in some training and up to 2" of rain in a few localized areas. Should this rainfall occur over urban centers, some minor flooding issues could result. Otherwise, recent dry conditions should prevent more widespread flooding concerns.

Good call sir Intriguing disco too 2/5/15 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0105 AM CDT Fri Apr 21 2023 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS INTO EASTERN VIRGINIA AND MARYLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are expected from parts of the Carolinas into the Mid Atlantic Saturday afternoon and evening. Hail, damaging gusts, and perhaps a brief tornado will all be possible. A marginal severe threat could also develop in parts of Florida and in parts of Texas. ...Synopsis... A negative-tilt upper trough will swing northeastward across the OH Valley and across the Appalachians during the day, with strong height falls into the Mid Atlantic by late afternoon or early evening. To the west, moderate west/northwest flow aloft will persist over the southern Plains with an upper ridge over the West. At the surface, low pressure will gradually deepen as it moves across western NY into parts of southwest Ontario, with cold front pushing rapidly east across the Carolinas, VA and PA during the afternoon. Ahead of the front, 50s F dewpoints will be common into PA and NJ, with 60+ dewpoints from southeast VA southward. Aiding moisture advection will be a 40+ kt low-level jet at 850 mb, which will also increase low-level shear. Elsewhere, moisture return will occur from Deep South TX up the Rio Grade Valley, reaching parts of central TX late as an east-west oriented cold front makes southward progress through the period. ...Carolina/Mid Atlantic... Heating and moisture advection will lead to a favorably unstable air mass for severe storms as the upper wave and surface trough push east during the afternoon. MLCAPE will exceed 1000 J/kg over much of the warm sector, and primarily from eastern VA southward. Although instability will be weaker farther north into PA and NJ, this will be in the area experiencing strong cooling aloft with the upper vorticity max. Overall, hodographs will favor cellular activity with storms ahead of the cold front. A broken line or perhaps fully linear storm mode may occur with time as the cold front surges. Hail will be favored during the day, and modest SRH values of 100-150 m2/s2 and lack of a cap may support a few supercells. The severe risk is expected to wane as it approaches the coast due to stabilization.

Pretty decent squall line I guess on 18z NAM NEST rolling through Saturday evening around dinnertime... looks like 18z NAM has same idea

EF3 damage found so far in Cole, OK

Damn

Uh... what kind of watchbox is this supposed to be?

Norman Twitter is fascinating