yoda

Also talk in this mornings AFD from LWX .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A large surface ridge over the OH Valley moves across the Mid- Atlantic, then out to sea Sunday into the start of next week. Cold and brisk conditions Sunday as highs struggle to reach the upper 30s to low 40s, and northwest winds gust around 25-35 mph. Dry conditions likely through Tuesday. Very cold Sunday night as lows drop to the upper teens to low 20s, with wind chills in the single digits to teens. Temperatures gradually warm through mid week, going from 40s on Monday to 60s on Wednesday. The next chance for widespread precipitation looks to be Wednesday into Thursday when a potent upper trough and strong cold front approach the area. There are still timing differences between the global models, though all show a strong weather system impacting the region. If these trends continue and given the strong kinematic environment in the model guidance, it is possible our area is affected by strong winds, heavy rainfall, and strong to possibly severe thunderstorms. There is still too much uncertainty to speak with much confidence given this is a week away, but it is worth monitoring as we head into next week.

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0402 AM CST Thu Feb 27 2025 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...D6/Tue - East Texas into the Mid/Lower Mississippi Valley... A compact mid-level low will translate east across the Southwest on Sunday which will result in lee cyclogenesis in the southern/central High Plains. As surface high pressure across the Midwest translates east, favorable low-level trajectories and strengthening flow across the Gulf and southern Plains will initiate significant moisture return across Texas. The initial mid-level low will weaken as it moves across the Plains and into the Mid-Mississippi Valley on D5/Monday. However, lee cyclogenesis will likely strengthen Monday afternoon as a larger scale trough approaches the southern Plains. Shortwave ridging will likely keep the dryline capped on Monday with continued moistening beneath the capping inversion as low-level moisture advection continues. By 12Z Tuesday, moisture recovery across the western Gulf should be complete with 70F dewpoints forecast near the Gulf Coast by both GFS and ECMWF ensembles. Confidence in the upper-level pattern is increasing as the ECMWF and EC Ensembles have been consistent with an amplified mid-level pattern across the central and southern Plains now for several consecutive runs. In addition, the GFS/GEFS has trended toward the more amplified ECMWF solution. As the confidence in the overall pattern increases, the confidence for a significant severe weather threat has also increased and 30% severe weather probabilities have been added from East Texas to central Mississippi. While specifics will remain uncertain until the event draws closer, the potential for multiple rounds of severe convection including supercells, clusters, and likely an eventual squall line will likely bring a threat for all severe weather hazards including strong tornadoes. ...D7/Wed - Carolinas into the Southeast... The ECMWF/ECS, which has been several days ahead of other extended guidance on with this upcoming pattern, has trended toward greater moisture penetration into the Southeast US and east of the Appalachians. Low to mid 60s dewpoints in the presence of a very strong wind field will support a large area of severe weather threat from the Southeast to the Carolinas and perhaps into parts of the Mid-Atlantic. Storm mode and specific hazards will be impacted by prior day convection and the overall evolution of the deepening surface low and associated cold front, but a great enough threat exists for 15% severe weather probabilities for D7/Wednesday. ..Bentley.. 02/27/2025

SE portion of the LWX CWA outlooked on the Day 7 from SPC

Until the playoffs

At least Ovechkin didn't score

Let us know lol

Can I come?

We also had a poster on here have it narrowly missing his place... think a few streets over?

Where Bob Chill now lives

50 to 60 percent chance of one inch or more in DC metro lol

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 210 PM EST Tue Feb 18 2025 VAZ038-050-056-507-190315- /O.EXB.KLWX.WW.Y.0015.250219T1500Z-250220T0300Z/ Greene-Orange-Spotsylvania-Northern Virginia Blue Ridge- 210 PM EST Tue Feb 18 2025 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 2 and 4 inches. * WHERE...Greene, Orange, and Spotsylvania Counties, and Northern Virginia Blue Ridge. * WHEN...From 10 AM to 10 PM EST Wednesday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Wednesday evening commute.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 210 PM EST Tue Feb 18 2025 VAZ036-037-190315- /O.UPG.KLWX.WS.A.0009.250219T1200Z-250220T1200Z/ /O.EXB.KLWX.WW.Y.0015.250219T1200Z-250220T0000Z/ Nelson-Albemarle- 210 PM EST Tue Feb 18 2025 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 2 and 4 inches. * WHERE...Albemarle and Nelson Counties. * WHEN...From 7 AM to 7 PM EST Wednesday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Wednesday morning and evening commutes.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 210 PM EST Tue Feb 18 2025 VAZ057-190315- /O.EXB.KLWX.WW.Y.0015.250219T1800Z-250220T0600Z/ King George- 210 PM EST Tue Feb 18 2025 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 1 AM EST THURSDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 1 and 3 inches. * WHERE...King George County. * WHEN...From 1 PM Wednesday to 1 AM EST Thursday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Wednesday evening commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...This snowfall will fall during a portion of the Wednesday evening commute, with temperatures well below freezing, which could cause roads to become very slick during a period of high traffic volume.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 210 PM EST Tue Feb 18 2025 VAZ025-504-508-190315- /O.EXT.KLWX.WW.Y.0015.250219T1200Z-250220T0000Z/ Augusta-Eastern Highland-Central Virginia Blue Ridge- 210 PM EST Tue Feb 18 2025 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 2 and 4 inches. * WHERE...Central Virginia Blue Ridge, and Augusta and Eastern Highland Counties. * WHEN...From 7 AM to 7 PM EST Wednesday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Wednesday morning and evening commutes.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 210 PM EST Tue Feb 18 2025 MDZ017-190315- /O.UPG.KLWX.WS.A.0009.250219T1500Z-250220T1500Z/ /O.EXB.KLWX.WW.Y.0015.250219T1800Z-250220T0600Z/ St. Marys- 210 PM EST Tue Feb 18 2025 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 1 AM EST THURSDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 2 and 4 inches. * WHERE...St. Marys County. * WHEN...From 1 PM Wednesday to 1 AM EST Thursday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Wednesday evening and Thursday morning commutes.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 210 PM EST Tue Feb 18 2025 MDZ016-018-VAZ055-190315- /O.EXB.KLWX.WW.Y.0015.250219T1800Z-250220T0300Z/ Charles-Calvert-Stafford- 210 PM EST Tue Feb 18 2025 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations up to one inch. * WHERE...In Maryland, Calvert and Charles Counties. In Virginia, Stafford County. * WHEN...From 1 PM to 10 PM EST Wednesday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Wednesday evening commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...This snowfall will fall during a portion of the Wednesday evening commute, with temperatures well below freezing, which could cause roads to become very slick during a period of high traffic volume.

The JV 12z icon looks a little more north with its qpf field at 18 compared to 06z 24...

12z 3km NAM 10:1 Kuchera

12z 3km NAM precip through 57

Not the same ofc, but didn't the late Jan 2010 storm do the same thing really late? Shifted north in the last 24 hours... I think it was supposed to hit south of us and we got decent snows out of it up here

12z NAM 10:1 Kuchera

Shows how much small distances can mean much... on 12z 3km NAM, EZF and Waldorf are at 0.3" QPF... DCA 0.1"

Sorry @high risk I'm hugging the 12km NAM

Maybe mod snow just south of DC metro to EZF at 36

The map Will posted was the 24 hr snow map through 81. This one is the entire run