yoda

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 432 PM EDT Fri Jun 16 2023 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... West central Stafford County in northern Virginia... Northeastern Orange County in central Virginia... South central Fauquier County in northern Virginia... Southeastern Culpeper County in northern Virginia... North central Spotsylvania County in central Virginia... * Until 515 PM EDT. * At 432 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 11 miles south of Bealeton, or 13 miles east of Culpeper, moving southeast at 20 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... Flat Run, Chancellorsville, Ramoth, Lignum, Storck, Holly Corner, Dunavant, Lake Of The Woods, Richardsville, Glendie, Hartwood, Goldvein, Sumerduck and Cookstown. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building.

New storms with lightning firing back in W MD

I don't think so

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1111.html

Ping pong ball sized hail with the storm now per trained spotters

Seeing some hooking tendency on the cell and some purple showing up on Radarscope

Looks right it made a SE turn from its prior east movement

Just got warned... tagged at 1.75" hail marker

Well written discussion this morning from LWX NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A potent upper-level shortwave is moving through the Ohio Valley into Tennessee early this morning. In fact, you can see a reflection to the surface in the form of low pressure. Increased divergence aloft has caused weak low pressure to develop around a boundary near the Virginia Piedmont. Light southeast winds have developed in response to this low, causing a little moisture advection as well as low-level convergence around the Piedmont and east of Interstate 95. A few showers and thunderstorms have developed across these areas early this morning, and this may continue. The threat for severe storms seems low since instability is still limited, but small hail and gusty winds are possible. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are also associated with the potent shortwave/low pressure over southeastern Ohio into WV and PA. This activity will move into the area from the northwest early this morning. There is a relative min in instability across northern VA, the Potomac Highlands and eastern WV, so while there will be showers with perhaps a few thunderstorms, the probability for severe storms is low. A stronger storm may impact areas west of the Allegheny Front between 5 and 8 AM this morning where instability may be a bit higher on the western side of the mountains. The shortwave will move through our area later this morning into this afternoon, and a band of showers along with a couple thunderstorms will continue to gradually push southeast during this time. Latest guidance continues to show activity strengthening along the outflow boundary of this system late this morning into this afternoon. This is due to falling heights and daytime heating ahead of it. With stronger shear profiles and steep low-level lapse rates, this suggests that some storms may be severe with damaging winds and large hail being the primary threats. Exactly how far north and west the severe threat makes it with the first round is uncertain, but it does appear that the best chance for strong to severe storms will be across central Virginia south of Interstate 66 and east of Interstate 95 across central MD into the Baltimore Metropolitan area as well as northeastern MD between 15 to 18z, and around 18-21z for southern MD. However, the potent shortwave will lag behind, passing through our area late this afternoon and evening. The cold front associated with this system will due so during this time as well. Therefore, there will be a period where the atmosphere can recharge around mid to late afternoon ahead of the cold front. This is tough to do, but given the longer days this time of year and cold air aloft, it seems likely at this time. Therefore, more showers and thunderstorms are likely to develop ahead of the cold front (best chance near and east of Interstate 81) around mid to late afternoon before propagating eastward toward the Bay this evening. More severe storms are possible due to steep low-level lapse rates and strong shear profiles as well as more DCAPE during this time as well. Damaging winds and large hail are the primary threats. The cold front will move off to the east later this evening into the early overnight while the upper-level trough axis swings through. A northwest flow will gradually dry things out during this time, and it will turn out cool and less humid overnight with falling dewpoints.

Pop up storm down by Orange

Hmmm... interesting choice by the USMNT... Berhalter to return as coach

More about it -- https://nwschat.weather.gov/p.php?pid=202306142127-KLWX-NOUS41-PNSLWX

Nope... "capable of producing a tornado" per latest update

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Cleveland OH 712 PM EDT Thu Jun 15 2023 The National Weather Service in Cleveland has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Ottawa County in northwestern Ohio... Erie County in north central Ohio... Northeastern Sandusky County in northwestern Ohio... * Until 745 PM EDT. * At 711 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located near Port Clinton and Vickery, moving east at 45 mph. HAZARD...Tornado and golf ball size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. This storm has a history of producing funnel clouds and potential tornado damage. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. * Locations impacted include... Sandusky, Port Clinton, Northern Milan, Castalia, Marblehead, Bay View, Whites Landing, Bloomingville, Sandusky South, Vickery and Fairview Lanes.

Storms in OH are packing a punch with 2" hail and confirmed tornadoes

Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Cleveland OH 704 PM EDT Thu Jun 15 2023 OHC123-143-152315- /O.COR.KCLE.TO.W.0002.000000T0000Z-230615T2315Z/ Ottawa OH-Sandusky OH- 704 PM EDT Thu Jun 15 2023 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 715 PM EDT FOR OTTAWA AND NORTHEASTERN SANDUSKY COUNTIES... At 703 PM EDT, a confirmed tornado was located near Oak Harbor, or 7 miles north of Fremont, moving southeast at 40 mph. HAZARD...Damaging tornado and two inch hail. SOURCE...Emergency management confirmed tornado. At 656 PM, emergency management reported a tornado along the Sandusky and Ottawa County line near state route 19. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. Locations impacted include... Port Clinton, Oak Harbor, Whites Landing and Vickery. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... To repeat, a tornado is on the ground. TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris.

LWX still likes tomorrow per afternoon AFD .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Closed 500 mb low will be moving across Pennsylvania Friday and help trigger additional showers and thunderstorms with muliple rounds of showers/t-storms expected. As opposed to last Monday, this time mid-level lapse rates look significantly steeper and cloud cover thinner with plenty of heating contributing to moderately unstable conditions. Risk of severe wx looks greater than last Monday particularly east of I-95. Convection is likely to persist well into the evening over eastern areas, but the severe threat is likely to wane quickly after 7PM.

Yes please to the CanSIPS

Interested in what kind of watches are issued. As the MCD says, it will be a tornado watch. However, with winds likely over 80 mph (I'm guess text will say to 90mph and hail to 4" in diameter)... could they go PDS just to cover everything even though no violent tornadoes are likely?

MRGL risk pushed back west to i81 corridor on 1730z SPC OTLK. SLGT risk for i95 corridor and east to the Delmarva introduced

SPC moved the ENH and MOD risks further into TX on the 1630z OTLK Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023 Valid 151630Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM WESTERN OK AND VICINITY INTO NORTH TX... ...SUMMARY... Widespread severe storms associated with giant hail (larger than 3-4 inches in diameter), intense wind damage (greater than 80 mph) and a few tornadoes are expected from mid afternoon into tonight across western and southern Oklahoma into north and northeast Texas. ...Southern Plains this afternoon through tonight... A midlevel shortwave trough is moving east-northeastward across northern NM as of late morning, and in response to this wave weak lee cyclogenesis is underway across northeast NM/southeast CO. This will help draw rich low-level moisture northwestward through the afternoon, with mid-upper 60s boundary-layer dewpoints reaching western OK/eastern TX Panhandle, and low-mid 70s farther southeast into northwest and north TX. The moistening is occurring beneath very steep midlevel lapse rates near 9 C/km, which will contribute to extreme buoyancy (MLCAPE in excess of 4000 J/kg) this afternoon/evening along the warm front and east of the dryline. Severe storm development is expected by early-mid afternoon along the dryline from the TX Panhandle into southwest KS, with subsequent development on the dryline into northwest TX. The extreme buoyancy, steep lapse rates and very long hodographs will all be quite favorable for intense supercells capable of producing giant hail (3-4 inches in diameter or greater). Despite modestly high temperature-dewpoint spreads (20 to 25 F) initially, a gradual increase in low-level shear/hodograph curvature will support some tornado threat late this afternoon/evening. As storms spread eastward this evening, upscale growth into one or more clusters appears likely, with an increasing threat for swaths of intense gusts in excess of 80 mph. The corridor of the most intense storms is expected across western/southern and parts of central OK, as well as north TX. Thus, the ENH/MDT risk areas have been expanded southward and southeastward into TX to reflect both the high-end hail threat with the initial supercells, and a high-end wind threat with any late evening/overnight storm clusters.

Even the morning AFD from LWX is intriguing .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As the mid-energy pivots across the northern half of our region on Friday, additional showers and thunderstorms are likely to develop. The amount of any sunshine Friday morning and midday will make a difference on how intense Friday afternoon thunderstorms become when they develop and move east. As of now, SPC has the eastern two-thirds of our CWA in a Marginal Risk of thunderstorms. A weak surface cold front will aid in the lift of convection with the biggest threats from stronger thunderstorms being strong wind gusts and hail (due to steep low-level lapse rates and moderate shear). Moderate shear profiles in our region could get the strongest thunderstorms rotating into supercells. &&

But mentioned isolated supercells in its discussion too. Only game in town probably for a while... let's get that upgrade to SLGT lol