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yoda

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  1. yoda
    ENH risk nudged westward a tad on 1630z OTLK towards i81 corridor
  2. yoda
    02z HRRR has some explosive development in the i81 corridor at teh end of its run that looks like it matches the 00z NAM Nest a bit
  3. yoda
    00z NAM Nest has a large UD Helicity Swath just north of DC metro around 19z-21z (basically IAD to BWI)
  4. yoda
    Bye Cindy Remnants Of Cindy Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042023 1100 PM AST Sun Jun 25 2023 Satellite imagery this evening shows that the low-cloud swirl associated with Cindy has again become void of deep convection. In addition, imagery animation and scatterometer data indicates that the system no longer has a closed circulation. Thus, the cyclone has degenerated to a tropical wave or trough and this will be the last advisory. The initial intensity is set to 35 kt based on the scatterometer data and satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB, and it is anticipated that the maximum winds will drop below tropical-storm force during the next several hours. The initial motion is 315/12. The remnants of Cindy should continue a general northwestward motion for the next couple of days, and then turn northward on the eastern side of a deep-layer baroclinic trough over the eastern United States and the western Atlantic. In the short term, there is little chance of any regeneration due to continued southwesterly vertical shear. However, after 48 h or so, the shear should diminish, and there is a chance that Cindy could regenerate after that time near or north of Bermuda. However, the model support for this has decreased over the last 24 h, and currently there is not enough confidence in regeneration to explicitly show it in the forecast. This is the last advisory on Cindy by the National Hurricane Center. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0300Z 22.8N 60.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
  5. yoda
    I'm not buying the big mixing out of the HRRR... southerly winds and flow should keep DPs 65+
  6. yoda
    h/t @Bubbler86
  7. yoda
    Wouldn't mind the 18z NAM NEST sim radar around 5pm tomorrow
  8. yoda
    A more cellular event could lead to a better chance of large hail over damaging winds
  9. yoda
    Severe wording put in the ZFPs
  10. yoda
    Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 421 PM EDT Sun Jun 25 2023 INC081-145-252045- /O.CON.KIND.TO.W.0020.000000T0000Z-230625T2045Z/ Shelby IN-Johnson IN- 421 PM EDT Sun Jun 25 2023 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM EDT FOR WEST CENTRAL SHELBY AND NORTHERN JOHNSON COUNTIES... At 420 PM EDT, a confirmed tornado was located over Greenwood, or 13 miles south of Indianapolis, moving east at 40 mph. HAZARD...Damaging tornado and half dollar size hail. SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado west-northwest of New Whiteland. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. This tornado will be near... Boggstown around 435 PM EDT.
  11. yoda
    Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 338 PM EDT Sun Jun 25 2023 INC011-023-057-159-252000- /O.CON.KIND.TO.W.0016.000000T0000Z-230625T2000Z/ Clinton IN-Boone IN-Hamilton IN-Tipton IN- 338 PM EDT Sun Jun 25 2023 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM EDT FOR SOUTHEASTERN CLINTON...NORTHEASTERN BOONE...NORTHWESTERN HAMILTON AND SOUTHWESTERN TIPTON COUNTIES... At 338 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located 10 miles northeast of Lebanon, or 12 miles southeast of Frankfort, moving east at 40 mph. HAZARD...Tornado and baseball size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. Hail reported by public IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. Locations impacted include... Sheridan and Westfield. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. This is a dangerous storm, capable of producing large hail driven by severe winds! SEEK SHELTER NOW inside a sturdy structure and stay away from windows! If you are caught outdoors, cover your head and neck. && LAT...LON 4009 8641 4026 8643 4030 8603 4003 8613 TIME...MOT...LOC 1938Z 268DEG 33KT 4016 8634 TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...2.75 IN $$ Updike
  12. yoda
    So where are we on here? Still Yoda level? Or higher?
  13. yoda
    Afternoon AFD from LWX... and here we go @Eskimo Joe @high risk SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Closed upper-level low pressure will remain over the Great Lakes Monday and a potent jetmax associated with this system will move into the area during this time. This will cause the wind field aloft to increase while heights fall. A surface trough will most likely setup east of the Allegheny Front due to differential heating. Showers and thunderstorms are most likely to develop along the surface trough during the early to mid afternoon hours (approx 16-18z) before propagating eastward (additional showers and thunderstorms are likely west of the trough as well due to the breaking capping inversion from falling heights). Thunderstorms are expected to intensify as they propagate eastward, possibly congealing into linear segments that produce more widespread wind damage. Deep layer shear is progged to be around 25-40 kt, and mid-level lapse rates will be steep due to the falling heights. SBCAPE is progged to be around 1500-3000 J/KG with the highest amounts east of the Blue Ridge. DCAPE will most likely be over 1,000 J/KG for many locations, enhancing the threat for downbursts. Also, some of the fattest CAPE in the soundings is progged to be around the -20C level, suggesting that there is a potential for very large hail in addition to the damaging wind threat. Veering profiles also suggest that an isolated tornado is possible as well. Please pay attention to the latest forecasts for Monday afternoon/evening, and be prepared to seek shelter if warnings are issued. The most likely timing for severe storms is around noon to 4 PM west of the Blue Ridge Mountains, and 4 PM through 8 PM east of the Blue Ridge Mountains into the metro areas, and perhaps lingering until around 9 or 10 PM toward southern MD and the Bay. Convection should dissipate later Monday evening. However, if we do not get widespread convection during the afternoon/early evening, there is a threat for isolated to scattered severe storms well into the evening because the atmosphere will not be worked over. Overnight, most of the time should turn out dry with just an isolated shower or t-storm possible.
  14. yoda
    Baseball sized hail in IN in one of its STW
  15. yoda
    This was from this morning LWX AFD... haven't seen them mention destructive winds before SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... After a lackluster start to the severe weather season, things quickly begin to change as a robust upper trough sweeps through the Ohio Valley to Mid-Atlantic. Presently, the upper low is situated over the Upper Midwest while eventually racing toward the east-southeast during the next 12 to 36 hours. With warm sector temperatures rising into the upper 80s/low 90s and dew points reaching the low 70s, ample instability will be available for convective development. Depending on the forecast model, surface-based instability nears 3,000 J/kg, accompanied by unusually steep mid-level lapse rates. With such lapse rates into the 7 to 8 C/km range, there is an increasing threat for large hail, especially from the D.C. metro southward. Additionally, large downdraft CAPE values are evident in forecast soundings which supports damaging to locally destructive winds. The latest model suites favor early afternoon convective initiation over the terrain as well as along a well established lee trough. Seasonably high CAPE values should allow rather quick development of updrafts. Within a couple hours after initiation, high-resolution models favor upscale growth into a eastward propagating squall line. The Storm Prediction Center has placed areas east of I-81 in a Slight risk for severe thunderstorms, with an Enhanced risk grazing Spotsylvania and King George counties. Depending on how subsequent models and observational data indicate, some expansion of these threat areas are possible. With an above average precipitable water air mass advecting into the region, there will be some threat for flash flooding. The cold pool driven thunderstorm activity should keep convection on the move. However, a quick inch or two is possible within many of these storms. A Slight risk continues from the Blue Ridge eastward, but especially over the DC to Baltimore urban sprawl. As the cold front does not arrive until late Monday into early Tuesday morning, some of these thunderstorms may linger into the overnight hours. Nighttime low temperatures will range from the 60s to low 70s.
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  20. yoda
    Arlington, VA is in the hatched while DC is just outside lol https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html
  21. yoda
    Good morning hatched hail
  22. yoda
    That escalated quickly
  23. yoda
  24. yoda
    USA getting lucky late with a goal late against Jamaica... I know some of the big guns aren't playing, but still, they have been struggling at times
  25. yoda
    00z HRRR at range of course, but that's pretty nice looking radar forecast from hours 43-48 Wouldn't mind the 00z NAM NEST or the 00z FV3 either
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