yoda

Arlington, VA is in the hatched while DC is just outside lol https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

Good morning hatched hail

That escalated quickly

USA getting lucky late with a goal late against Jamaica... I know some of the big guns aren't playing, but still, they have been struggling at times

00z HRRR at range of course, but that's pretty nice looking radar forecast from hours 43-48 Wouldn't mind the 00z NAM NEST or the 00z FV3 either

Quite an expansion on the updated Day 3 of the SLGT risk

Mark likes Monday still - @Ellinwood

Hmmm

12z NAM Nest also has some pretty decent UD Helicity Swaths between i66 and i70 Monday evening

Oh (NW Prince William County)

Some quite large hail markers on the SARS as well on the 12z NAM soundings on COD

Tornado Watch up for Central and Eastern Iowa https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0370.html

All I see from TBWI is out of service until further notice

Afternoon AFD from LWX Confidence continues to increase for severe weather Monday especially for areas near/east of the Interstate 81 corridor. 12z deterministic and ensemble guidance continues to show continuity in the timing and strength of the deepening/digging trough over the Great Lakes region and it`s associated cold front set to cross the region late Monday night into Tuesday morning. Both the deterministic and ensemble guidance continue to show a bit of a negative tilt to the trough as it sinks south into central Appalachians region. This will shift the best height falls and forcing along and ahead of the cold front as it pushes across the area Monday afternoon. Instability will be ample ahead of the boundary with ensemble mean CAPE around 1500-2500 j/kg per the latest 12z guidance. Bulk effective 0-6km shear values will also be on the order of 25-40 kts with mid- level lapse rates around 7-8 c/km during the peak heating period. This will further updraft growth along with organized and fairly linear activity compared to singular storms or complexes ahead of the boundary as it passes through. For that reason, the Storm Prediction Center currently highlights all areas east of the Alleghenies in a Marginal risk for severe thunderstorms. Flooding concerns will remain limited, but non-zero even with D1 and D2 drought antecedent conditions. The high precipitable water airmass (>1.25-1.50 inches) coupled with strongly forced convection should yield some opportunity for flooding, especially in urbanized areas. As a result, the Weather Prediction Center has painted a Slight risk for flooding over this area.

00z GFS still has a pretty impressive sim radar at 00z for the region

Some impressive soundings from the 00z NAM tonight across the region... some big hail markers too for Monday's threat on the SARS

Piotrowski just tweeted there was a tornado crossing Highway 92

Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Cheyenne WY 746 PM MDT Fri Jun 23 2023 NEC123-157-165-240200- /O.CON.KCYS.TO.W.0023.000000T0000Z-230624T0200Z/ Scotts Bluff NE-Morrill NE-Sioux NE- 746 PM MDT Fri Jun 23 2023 ...TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR Gering and Scottsbluff!... ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM MDT FOR EASTERN SCOTTS BLUFF...NORTHWESTERN MORRILL AND SOUTHEASTERN SIOUX COUNTIES... At 745 PM MDT, a confirmed large and destructive tornado was located 7 miles south of Gering, or near Scottsbluff, moving northeast at 25 mph. TORNADO EMERGENCY for Gering and Scottsbluff!. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...Deadly tornado. SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado. IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes, businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction is possible. The tornado will be near... Minatare around 750 PM MDT. Other locations in the path of this tornadic thunderstorm include Lake Minatare Campground and Lake Minatare. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... To repeat, a large, extremely dangerous, and potentially deadly tornado is on the ground. To protect your life, TAKE COVER NOW! Move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If in a mobile home, a vehicle or outdoors, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. If a tornado or other severe weather is spotted, report it to the National Weather Service or your local nearest law enforcement agency who will send your report. This act may save lives of others in the path of dangerous weather. Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways. && LAT...LON 4174 10366 4192 10378 4201 10359 4200 10342 4190 10336 4181 10337 TIME...MOT...LOC 0145Z 245DEG 28KT 4188 10359 TORNADO...OBSERVED TORNADO DAMAGE THREAT...CATASTROPHIC MAX HAIL SIZE...4.00 IN

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20080723

Still pretty impressive on the 18z... few hours later though

Pouring here now