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yoda

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  1. yoda
    00z HRRR looks decent for two rounds tomorrow between 18z and 01z And around 18z to 22z MON as well
  2. yoda
    https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1371.html Mesoscale Discussion 1371 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 PM CDT Sat Jul 01 2023 Areas affected...northern/central Virginia into portions of Maryland Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 011737Z - 011930Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorms may produce locally strong gusts and hail through the afternoon. DISCUSSION...Isolated thunderstorms are developing along a surface trough near the higher terrain of west-central VA. Low to mid 70s surface dewpoints are contributing to 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE amid modest midlevel lapse rates. Continued heating will result in steepening low-level lapse rates the next few hours. Vertical shear is expected to remain weak, at or below 20 kt 0-6 km effective bulk shear. This will limit longevity/organization of strong updrafts. Nevertheless, high PW values and boundary-layer mixing to around 1 km could support sporadic downbursts. While midlevel lapse rates and 3-6 km flow will remain weak, large instability from 700-300 mb and somewhat elongated hodographs could support a few instances of near-1 inch hail. The overall threat is expected to remain marginal, and a severe thunderstorm watch is not expected at this time. ..Leitman/Grams.. 07/01/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RNK...
  3. yoda
    1730z SPC OTLK for tomorrow... still SLGT risk ...Mid Atlantic/Ohio and Tennessee Valleys into Ark-La-Tex... Along and just south of the weak frontal zone, the boundary-layer may be initially impacted by a considerable amount of remnant convective outflow. How the associated outflow boundaries evolve through midday Sunday remains unclear, but insolation along and to their south likely will contribute to steepening low-level lapse and moderate to large CAPE in the presence of seasonably high moisture content. This appears likely to occur beneath a belt of 30-40+ kt (perhaps stronger where augmented by prior convection) west-southwesterly flow in the 850-500 mb layer, which may prove conducive to renewed strong and organizing convective development Sunday afternoon and evening. Isolated supercell structures are possible initially, posing a risk for severe hail, before potentially damaging wind gusts with evolving clusters becomes the more prominent hazard.
  4. yoda
    Day 2 0/15/15 SLGT risk for all of LWX CWA... but discussion is kinda surprisingly meh Day 1 is MRGL for all (0/5/5)... SLGT risk for C and SW portions of LWX CWA for wind (15)
  5. yoda
    Its the HRRR
  6. yoda
    Should be an intriguing Day 1 and Day 2 SPC OTLK... maybe even Day 3 lol
  7. yoda
    Looks like a supercell into a bow echo for DC metro Sun afternoon? Hours 42-45 on sim radar
  8. yoda
    00z NAM NEST looks good for tomorrow afternoon into the evening from around 20z on
  9. yoda
    STW with TOR poss tag for C MD BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 441 PM EDT Fri Jun 30 2023 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Baltimore City in northern Maryland... Northwestern Anne Arundel County in central Maryland... Eastern Howard County in central Maryland... Southwestern Baltimore County in northern Maryland... * Until 530 PM EDT. * At 441 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from Ellicott City to near Elkridge to Laurel, moving east at 15 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... Baltimore, Columbia, Severn, Pikesville, Elkridge, Riviera Beach, Baltimore-Washington Airport, Historic Ellicott City, Fort Smallwood State Park, Glen Burnie, Ellicott City, Dundalk, Towson, Catonsville, Woodlawn, Milford Mill, Lochearn, Pasadena, Arbutus and Ferndale. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Remain alert for a possible tornado! Tornadoes can develop quickly from severe thunderstorms. If you spot a tornado go at once into the basement or small central room in a sturdy structure. Torrential rainfall is occurring with these storms, and may lead to flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways. && LAT...LON 3927 7651 3920 7649 3920 7650 3919 7650 3916 7648 3910 7684 3917 7688 3926 7687 3938 7673 3938 7659 TIME...MOT...LOC 2041Z 251DEG 14KT 3928 7684 3920 7680 3909 7683 TORNADO...POSSIBLE HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH
  10. yoda
    Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 435 PM EDT Fri Jun 30 2023 MDC027-302045- /O.CON.KLWX.TO.W.0004.000000T0000Z-230630T2045Z/ Howard MD- 435 PM EDT Fri Jun 30 2023 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM EDT FOR EAST CENTRAL HOWARD COUNTY... At 435 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located over Columbia, moving northeast at 15 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...For those in the direct path of a tornado touchdown, flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Damage to roofs, siding, and windows may occur. Mobile homes may be damaged or destroyed. Tree damage is likely. This dangerous storm will be near... Historic Ellicott City, Ellicott City and Catonsville around 445 PM EDT. Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Simpsonville and Ilchester. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. Heavy rainfall may hide this tornado. Do not wait to see or hear the tornado. TAKE COVER NOW! && LAT...LON 3928 7679 3927 7679 3923 7673 3922 7675 3918 7689 3921 7692 3929 7680 TIME...MOT...LOC 2035Z 240DEG 15KT 3921 7687 TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
  11. yoda
    Someone added the hail marker to it See the 429 warning and then the updated 430 one
  12. yoda
    Storm blew up just west of me... pouring here now
  13. yoda
    Afternoon AFD from LWX seems to suggest we have 3 days of chances, Sat-Mon is complicates the forecast and lowers uncertainty wrt how much recovery there could be before the aforementioned wave moves through. Overall chances for showers and thunderstorms appear to be higher west of the Blue Ridge. The environment looks seasonably moist with MLCAPE values near ~1500 J/kg and 20-25 kts of shear. Cannot rule out some strong to severe storms. There is varying flow with height, so storms may not initially move a lot resulting in a low end flood/flash flood threat. Will also have to monitor upstream convective activity for potential local impacts as some guidance has an MCS in the Ohio Valley Saturday night or early Sunday morning. This in turn complicates Sunday`s forecast. Come Sunday, a potent trough will move through the Ohio Valley with flow increasing ahead of this feature along with ample moisture return. There is a notable overlap in CAPE and shear Sunday, which could result in severe thunderstorms areawide. Clear skies Sunday morning will result in a volatile environment. Also possible convective debris Sunday morning limits the convective potential locally. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Sunday night, all attention will turn to a very potent shortwave trough over the Great Lakes. A strong MCS associated with this system will make its way eastward across the Ohio Valley into Sunday evening, before approaching the Allegheny Front Sunday night. The biggest uncertainty lies with what it does after that. Decaying MCS`s are one of the most difficult weather phenomena to predict, and this is no exception. Guidance is still all over the place with available instability east of the mountains overnight Sunday into Monday. The most likely scenario is that the MCS decays as it crosses the mountains, and areas see some residual showers and clouds into Monday morning. However, should the higher end of guidance hold true, we could see re-formation east of the Shenandoah Valley somewhere. All in all, this is a very complex forecast, and the Storm Prediction has our area highlighted with a Slight Risk as a result, so it is something that is being closely monitored. Beyond that, the primary upper trough should move through on Monday, bringing another chance for afternoon showers and storms. The level of severity is going to depend greatly on the events that occur Sunday evening, and what amount of cloud debris is left over our area. Best chance would be during the late afternoon/evening hours.
  14. yoda
    It actually rained there?
  15. yoda
    True, but still has really nice shear and CAPE values
  16. yoda
    12z NAM still has some pretty impressive soundings for Sunday into Monday... and has an MCS rolling through Saturday evening
  17. yoda
    Back offline and then back online... guess they're testing some stuff
  18. yoda
    Pretty impressive at range and especially overnight too Hr 81 just south of DC is lol
  19. yoda
    Was this posted earlier? If so, my apologies... but this is pretty neat -- https://fire.airnow.gov/
  20. yoda
    Can someone explain to me or point me in the direction of where I can read up and learn about what @Kmlwx bolded above in this morning's AFD from LWX? I understand the 0-6km as deep layer shear... so would 0-3km be low level shear?
  21. yoda
    So far so good on our radar returning shortly NOUS61 KLWX 281817 FTMLWX MESSAGE DATE: JUN 28 2023 18:14:00 THE KLWX WSR-88D REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE AS IT UNDERGOES AN IMPORTANT UPGRADE TO REFURBISH AND REPLACE THE PEDESTAL. ESTIMATED RETURN TO SERVICE IS JUNE 30TH, BARRING ANY UNEXPECTED ISSUES. DURING THE DOWNTIME, ADJACENT RADARS WILL BE AVAILABLE, INCLUDING: WAKEFIELD, VA (KAKQ), ROANOKE, VA (KFCX), DOVER, DE (KDOX), CHARLESTON, WV (KRLX), PITTSBURGH, PA (KPBZ), STATE COLLEGE, PA (KCTP), AND FORT DIX, NJ (KDIX)...ALSO FAA TERMINAL DOPPLER RADARS FOR DULLES (TIAD), REAGAN NATIONAL (TDCA), THURGOOD MARSHALL BWI (TBWI), AND JOINT BASE ANDREWS (TADW). FOR DIRECT ACCESS TO ANY OF THESE SURROUNDING RADAR SITES, VISIT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE: HTTPS://RADAR.WEATHER.GOV/ $$ KR
  22. yoda
    Most likely... I just saw the MRGL risk on day 3 into our region. Would like a decent MCS to come rolling through the region... we haven't had one of those in awhile
  23. yoda
    Guess we'll be on MCS watch late Friday?
  24. yoda
    Preliminary Local Storm Report National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 237 PM EDT Tue Jun 27 2023 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0225 PM Tstm Wnd Dmg Tysons Corner 38.92N 77.23W 06/27/2023 Fairfax VA Broadcast Media The ramp from eastbound VA-7 Leesburg Pike to northbound VA-123 Chain Bridge Road was blocked by downed trees. && Event Number LWX2301183
  25. yoda
    Mod risk coming for S KS and N OK in 1630z OTLK for wind - which means it's 45 and sig
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