yoda

Maybe some EHWs? LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... For the middle to latter portions of the week, an anomalous upper ridge maintains its stranglehold over the Four Corners into the Southern Plains. Meanwhile, troughing across eastern Canada gradually retreats northward as a western Atlantic ridge expands back to the Eastern Seaboard. In between the pair of ridges will be a weakness in the flow extending from the Gulf Coast up toward the Tennessee Valley. Overall, ensembles agree on above average 500-mb heights extending across a vast majority of the country. This results in a notable warming trend across the Mid-Atlantic region, likely resulting in the hottest stretch of the year. Multi-ensemble temperature plots show highs soaring well into the 90s during the period, particularly on Thursday and Friday. During these days, models are in agreement in carrying high temperatures to the upper 90s. Low-level moisture should be abundant owing to a multi-day period of warm/moist advection. Expectations are dew points will rise into the low 70s which allows heat indices to surge into the 105 to 110 degree range. As this stands, heat-related headlines would be needed both days if the forecast holds up. As is common in these regimes, little relief is expected at night with most seeing low temperatures in the 70s. While the region is well into the "Dog Days of Summer", the hottest stretch of the year will certainly require added public response. This would include limiting outdoor exposure during the afternoon hours, staying hydrated, wearing light-colored clothes, and finding air-conditioned indoor spaces. Despite all the heat and humidity in the atmosphere, daily convective chances are quite limited. The upper ridging should squash many of the developing updrafts. The best chance for any relief from such storms would be across the Alleghenies. Thunderstorm chances increase into next weekend as a cold front slowly approaches from the north and west. A gradual reduction in mid/upper heights is forecast to slowly bring temperatures back to the low/mid 90s next weekend.

ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Hurricane Don Discussion Number 36 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052023 1100 PM AST Sat Jul 22 2023 Don's structure on satellite imagery remains well organized for a tropical cyclone at such a high latitude in late July. A small but distinct eye has persisted, surrounded by moderately cold cloud tops. However, the coldest cloud tops are beginning to erode on the north edge of the eye, and the upper-level outflow has also become more restricted in that direction. These factors likely indicate that Don is starting to feel the effects of nearby cooler waters and increased vertical wind shear that will ultimately lead to a swift decline in intensity. For now, the latest subjective Dvorak estimates were T4.0 (65 kt) from both SAB and TAFB, and objective intensity estimates currently range from 53 kt to 69 kt. It is worth noting that UW-CIMSS ADT estimates have been much lower, apparently due to that objective technique failing to pick up on the eye pattern seen on satellite today. Discounting that outlier, a blend of other subjective and objective data supports an initial intensity of 65 kt for this advisory. Don's wind radii have also been adjusted some due to a helpful ASCAT-B pass at 2348 UTC. Now that Don is moving north of a warm eddy in the Gulf Stream, the cyclone should soon encounter much colder sea-surface temperatures along its track. Thus, steady weakening is expected to begin shortly. As Don quickly loses its deep convection, the cyclone is forecast to become post-tropical in 36 h, with the circulation expected to open up into a trough axis after 48 h. This forecast is in good agreement with the global and hurricane-regional model guidance. Don is now moving to the north-northeast a bit faster than before at 015/12 kt. A continued turn to the northeast with a bit more acceleration is anticipated overnight into tomorrow as Don is embedded within southwesterly steering flow between a subtropical ridge to its southeast and a deep-layer trough located over eastern Canada. This pattern should persist until Don dissipates, with the system continuing to recurve eastward over the next 48 h. The track guidance has shifted a bit faster than the prior cycle but still remains along a similar trajectory. Thus the NHC track forecast remains very close to the prior track, but just a little faster. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0300Z 41.4N 49.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 23/1200Z 43.3N 48.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 24/0000Z 45.5N 46.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 24/1200Z 47.2N 42.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 25/0000Z 48.1N 37.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin

BULLETIN Hurricane Don Advisory Number 36 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052023 1100 PM AST Sat Jul 22 2023 ...DON STILL A HURRICANE BUT BEGINNING TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OVER COOLER WATERS... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...41.4N 49.6W ABOUT 405 MI...650 KM SSE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Don was located near latitude 41.4 North, longitude 49.6 West. Don is moving toward the north-northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn northeastward is expected tomorrow, with a northeastward to east-northeastward motion expected to continue until the system dissipates Monday night or early Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady weakening is expected to begin shortly, and Don is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone by Sunday night. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Papin

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... High pressure will bring dry conditions with sunshine on Tuesday. Highs will reach the upper 80s to lower 90s. A stray afternoon or evening thunderstorm cannot be ruled out, but most areas should be dry. A large ridge of high pressure will set up during the middle to latter part of the week. This high will keep conditions hot and dry for the most part. Temperatures could reach well into the 90s Thursday and Friday and could hit 100 degrees in a few places. Higher dewpoint temperatures could lead to higher heat index values as well. Heat indices could reach 100 to 110 degrees during the hottest time of the days. We will continue to monitor the upcoming heat to end the work week. An afternoon or evening thunderstorm cannot be ruled out each day, but it appears that most of the time will be dry due to limited forcing and higher heights.

I don't think they will be finishing tonight at Fenway with the tweets lol

Or maybe like 3-0?

It's going to be like 8-0

Just got rain delayed

Looks like some 100 degree heat will be coming next week

Nice Orioles win in 10 tonight, 4-3

8:30pm LWX AFD evening update .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... Unsettled weather pattern is expected for tonight with strong storms likely and severe storms possible. Current analysis shows an MCS ahead of a cold front moving into Pennsylvania while another area of convection approaches the Shenandoah Valley from the southwest, which is in association with a weaker shortwave/outflow boundary that is passing by to the south. For this evening, the activity to our southwest will most likely propagate into the central Shenandoah Valley and Potomac Highlands. Note the west to southwest flow over western VA converging into the south to southeast flow over the central Shenandoah Valley. There is an area of higher MLCAPE over this area as well. Therefore, showers and thunderstorms are likely to develop this evening across this area, and with moderate effective deep layer shear, some storms may become severe. Damaging wind is the primary threat, but an isolated instance of hail is possible as well. Also, there is a decent amount of moisture pull, looking at the 925 and 850mb moisture transport from the southwest. This, combined with a light low-level flow means that some storms may hug terrain or convective boundaries, causing a threat for flood/flash flooding. However, confidence is too low for a watch at this time given a relatively stronger steering flow. Will continue to monitor. The other area of concern is the MCS moving through Pennsylvania this evening. This line will most likely propagate southeast into western MD close to midnight, before moving through our area from northwest to southeast overnight. The propagation of this system to the southeast is offset from the steering flow, which is southwest to northeast as well as the potent shortwave that will be passing by to the north. Therefore, there is a chance that the outflow may outrun this activity, causing it to be relatively weaker. However, there is increasing CAPE and instability due to southerly winds ahead of this system, despite it not being a favorable time for convection. This increases the threat for severe storms. Given the setup, damaging winds appear to be the primary threat, especially near and north of Interstate 66 and US 50 into eastern WV, northern VA, and northern/western MD, where the forcing will be strongest. Isolated instances of flood/flash flooding are possible due to the heavy rain and increasing moisture ahead of this system. However, it should be progressive (causing any training storms to be localized in coverage). The low-level flow will be backed more to the southeast and perhaps a bit stronger, especially near/east of Interstate 95 in northeastern MD. An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out as this activity approaches toward Friday morning.

LWX CWA has two counties in the New STWatch issued by SPC just now SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 528 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 615 PM EDT THU JUL 20 2023 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 528 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 AM EDT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS MDC001-023-210700- /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0528.230720T2215Z-230721T0700Z/ MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEGANY GARRETT $$

Mesoscale Discussion 1649 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 PM CDT Thu Jul 20 2023 Areas affected...Parts of western NY...western PA...and far eastern OH Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely Valid 202056Z - 202230Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...The risk of severe winds will increase in the next few hours as an organized MCS overspreads the area from the west. A watch issuance is likely for parts of the area in the next hour or so. DISCUSSION...Recent radar data from KDTX depicts a well-organized bowing MCS tracking eastward at around 40 kt in Ontario -- where a recent 63-kt gust was measured. Ahead of the MCS, antecedent diurnal heating of a relatively moist air mass (generally lower/middle 60s dewpoints) has contributed to weak/moderate surface-based instability -- with the greater instability confined to western PA and eastern OH (see 20Z observed PIT and 19Z BUF soundings). 40-50 kt midlevel winds should support continued convective organization as it crosses Lake Erie and approaches western NY, eastern OH, and western PA -- with a risk of severe winds during the next few hours. While there is some uncertainty on how intense the northern portion of the line will be given less instability farther north, the well-established cold pool and favorable deep-layer shear will still pose a risk of severe outflow winds. A watch will likely be issued in the next hour or so. ..Weinman/Hart.. 07/20/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE... https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1649.html

Good afternoon discussion from LWX on tonight's threat .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... A broken cumulus deck has started to pan out across the area early this afternoon, with high level cirrus clouds overhead. Moisture out ahead of an approaching front coupled with increasing instability further east has generated a few strong to even severe thunderstorms early this afternoon across portions of PA/MD, mainly across PHI`s area. Lingering slight chance PoPs exist further east throughout the afternoon but widespread scattered showers/thunderstorms are not expected through the remainder of the afternoon and evening. By tonight, a cold front will continue to traverse closer to the region from the Ohio Valley. Climatologically speaking, this event does not fit quite into the usual category, especially for the middle of July. Nonetheless, CAMs and other guidance has continued to suggest a strong line of showers and thunderstorms overnight and into Friday morning across a good portion of the forecast area. A general timeline for the feature path would be 6-8z across the far western areas and not leaving the eastern segments of the CWA until after 12-14z Friday morning. Latest guidance suite has slowed the progression down an hour or so for the life cycle but overall intensity has generally stayed the same. There still remains uncertainties with this event with respect to intensity especially. Convection ahead of the frontal passage may inhibit further development across certain areas which would limit overall impacts. Should the CI remain light/brief then hazards will be more widespread across portions of the area. There continues to be a multi-hazard possibility for the overnight hours. Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible, especially along and east of the Blue Ridge Mountains and along and north of I- 66. One caveat to mention would be across NE MD early Friday morning, where the shear profiles and instability look to be greatest. Damaging winds and an isolated/tornado or waterspout are possible across those areas especially. Lapse rates do not look as favorable during this time across those area, thus hail threat looks to be limited but certainly non-zero. Also, isolated instances of flooding due to training storms is possible across areas east of US- 15, where especially the urban corridors have lower FFG values. We will continue to monitor the trends of this system as it continues to dive into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast states later today and into early Friday morning. Highs will top out in the upper 80s to low 90s across the lower elevations, with mid to upper 70s for the mountains.

16z HRRR is much more stormy for the region starting around midnight and continuing through sunrise

14z HRRR actually looks pretty good tbh ETA - 15z looks about the same

Decent MUCAPE and shear most likely... lapse rates aren't too bad either

12z NAM Nest and 15z RAP favor MD and PA for whatever is left of the MCS/line... comes in between 11pm and 4am or so looks like

Not sure if we are watching the same area... but SPC upgraded parts of the Ohio Valley to a ENH risk for large hail and damaging winds... and SLGT was moved further east into PA

SPC mentioned us Thursday into Friday on the Day 4-8 OTLK... LWX AFD also mentions it LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Shower and thunderstorm chances round out the workweek with drier and slightly cooler conditions expected for the weekend. Synoptically, not much change in the overall pattern. The upper level ridge remains in the west while the mean upper level trough builds east from the Great Lakes. With west to northwest flow aloft, multiple shortwave disturbances and a front will be able to track across the region. Timing and placement of these systems still remains uncertain with a focus on western portions of the forecast area. Even with that said, 12z guidance shows some alignment for the highest probability of convection Thursday into Friday as shortwave energy dives south and the resultant cold front crosses the region. 12z deterministic/ensemble guidance shows increasing instability and shear during this time leading to the potential for strong to severe storms. Currently SPC makes a mention of this potential threat in there Day 5/6 discussion, but no areas have been highlighted at this time. Primary threats with these storms would be damaging winds, large hail, and isolated instances of flooding. WPC currently has the area highlighted in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall during the Day4/5 (Thursday-Friday) timeframe.

Lots of flooding down in Lynchburg with heavy rain and storms... we'll see if that makes it up here in a few hours

Thundering here now a good bit

Interesting NW complex movement out of Prince Willam

Rain picking up here... and def see redevelopment SW of CHO

I dunno... i see redevelopment down by CHO