yoda

Mesoscale Discussion 1741 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 PM CDT Thu Jul 27 2023 Areas affected...Parts of PA into northern MD/VA...eastern WV...DC...Northern DE...NJ Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 555... Valid 272046Z - 272215Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 555 continues. SUMMARY...The damaging-wind threat may gradually increase into early evening. DISCUSSION...Late this afternoon, convection is gradually deepening along two corridors across parts of the Northeast/Mid Atlantic. The southernmost corridor is a broadly confluent zone from southwest PA into northern MD, within a region of somewhat greater low/midlevel moisture. Storms have been gradually intensifying along this corridor, where deep-layer shear is rather weak, but sufficient for a modestly organized cells/clusters capable of damaging wind in the presence of moderate buoyancy and steep low-level lapse rates. An uptick in the damaging-wind threat is possible along this corridor as storm coverage gradually increases into early evening. Farther north, increasing cumulus is noted along a diffuse surface boundary from western into northeast PA, with storms gradually developing from northeast to southwest. Deep-layer shear is generally rather weak in this area as well, though low/midlevel flow gradually increases with eastward extent, in closer proximity to a departing mid/upper-level shortwave trough across New England. Isolated storms may develop as far west as west-central PA, but somewhat greater coverage is expected across eastern PA into this evening. Steepened low-level lapse rates will support at least a localized damaging-wind threat with any stronger storms across this area. ..Dean.. 07/27/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...PBZ...

Probably some flood warnings will be coming soon as well BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 422 PM EDT Thu Jul 27 2023 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Northwestern Montgomery County in central Maryland... Southwestern Frederick County in north central Maryland... Northeastern Loudoun County in northern Virginia... Southeastern Jefferson County in the Panhandle of West Virginia... * Until 515 PM EDT. * At 422 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from 6 miles southwest of Brunswick to near Charles Town, moving east at 5 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... Charles Town, Poolesville, Brunswick, Ranson, Point Of Rocks, Corporation Of Ranson, Adamstown, Lovettsville, Barnesville, Hillsboro, Waterford, Neersville, Doubs, Park Mills, Lucketts, Dickerson, Beallsville, Tuscarora, Millville and Taylorstown.

I guess we are also watching the stuff back in Garrett County? Warning says its moving SE

Severe Thunderstorm Warning MDC021-043-VAC107-WVC037-272015- /O.NEW.KLWX.SV.W.0169.230727T1936Z-230727T2015Z/ BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 336 PM EDT Thu Jul 27 2023 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Southeastern Washington County in north central Maryland... Southwestern Frederick County in north central Maryland... North central Loudoun County in northern Virginia... Central Jefferson County in the Panhandle of West Virginia... * Until 415 PM EDT. * At 336 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Ranson, or near Shepherdstown, moving east at 25 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... Frederick, Charles Town, Ballenger Creek, Brunswick, Ranson, Braddock Heights, Harpers Ferry, Kearneysville, Point Of Rocks, Corporation Of Ranson, Adamstown, Jefferson, Lovettsville, Bolivar, Buckeystown, Shenandoah Junction, Rosemont, Rohrersville, Burkittsville and Gapland. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement agency. They will send your report to the National Weather Service office in Sterling Virginia. Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways. && LAT...LON 3927 7796 3936 7794 3941 7789 3946 7744 3924 7745 TIME...MOT...LOC 1936Z 266DEG 22KT 3935 7783 HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

Hmmm Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 246 PM EDT Thu Jul 27 2023 .SYNOPSIS... A Bermuda high will remain in place offshore through Saturday. A surface trough will remain overhead through Saturday before a cold front passes through the area Saturday night into Sunday. High pressure will likely return early next week while an upper-level trough builds overhead. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... The mid-level clouds have dissipated for the most part, and this has allowed for hot and humid conditions. The Heat Advisory for near/east of Interstate 81 to the Bay remains in effect for heat indices around 100 to 105 degrees. The heat and humidity has led to plenty of instability. Latest mesoanalysis shows around 1 to 3 KJ/KG of MLCAPE, but there is inhibition as of early this afternoon. Current feeling is that a surface trough axis over southwest PA will merge into a weak trough over north-central MD into northern VA as the upper-level trough axis to our north moves eastward. This added lift should be enough for some storms to develop late this afternoon. If storms do develop, then more storms will likely develop due to the boundaries produced by the convection. Shear is marginal, but higher CAPE and DCAPE suggest that damaging winds are a threat, along with the possibility of large hail. There is the possibility that coverage of severe storms can be numerous around northern VA into the DC and Baltimore Metro areas for reasons mentioned above.

I think we did

Excessive Heat Warning for tomorrow

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 553 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 PM EDT Thu Jul 27 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Connecticut Massachusetts Southern Maine Southern New Hampshire Southeast New York Northeast Pennsylvania Rhode Island Southern Vermont Coastal Waters * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 1245 PM until 800 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will intensify this afternoon along a cold front and spread eastward across the watch area. Damaging wind gusts will be possible with the strongest cells through the afternoon. A tornado or two cannot be ruled out. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 90 statute miles east and west of a line from 5 miles west northwest of Augusta ME to 30 miles south of Poughkeepsie NY. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

You Severe Thunderstorm Watch

12pm temps BWI 89 IAD 87 DCA 86

1630z OTLK from SPC keeps the SLGT risk for wind

ENH just went up for MN/WI on 1630z OTLK... 30 percent hatched hail and wind

1630z OTLK remains same

Updated AFD from LWX thinks so

Watch coming later this afternoon for parts of the LWX CWA per MCD

Mesoscale Discussion 1736 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1005 AM CDT Thu Jul 27 2023 Areas affected...NY Hudson Valley into parts of New England Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 271505Z - 271700Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...The threat for damaging wind and a tornado or two will increase later today. Watch issuance is likely by late morning or early afternoon. DISCUSSION...A mid/upper-level shortwave trough is moving across northern NY this morning, and will approach northern New England by early afternoon. In conjunction with this shortwave, a weak surface low will move across northern NY/VT, as rich low-level moisture streams northeastward into a larger portion of New England. The 13 UTC sounding from SUNY-Albany depicts a favorable wind profile for organized convection, with rather strong midlevel flow and deep-layer shear, but also very weak midlevel lapse rates. Despite the weak lapse rates and rather widespread cloudiness, modest boundary-layer heating/moistening and ascent attendant to the shortwave trough will likely support deepening convection by early afternoon across the region. With weak instability, it may take some time for storms to mature, but a few supercells and organized clusters may evolve with time. Rather strong low-level flow will support a damaging-wind threat, especially where somewhat stronger heating can occur. Also, while the strongest low-level shear/SRH will tend to be somewhat displaced from the more favorable instability, a tornado or two will also be possible, given the potential for supercells within a very moist and favorably shear environment. Watch issuance is likely by late morning or early afternoon in order to address these threats. ..Dean/Hart.. 07/27/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...

That's pretty much going to be our severe potential for the next few days -- wind. Maybe a slight chance of a large hail report or weak spin-up

No change in the 1300z SPC OTLK

SLGT risk remains for today on the 1300z SPC OTLK

Dang does 00z NAM sim radar look TASTY for Saturday night lol ETA -- Haven't seen a PDS TOR sounding in a while either... 00z NAM tossing those out at hour 72 near the WV/VA border into E WV just west of the i81 corridor

Also, 18z NAM has some nice soundings and parameters for Saturday afternoon into Saturday night

That's some explosive development of severe storms tomorrow afternoon on the 18z NAM NEST 18z HRRR is pretty good IMO

I'm thinking 100 on Friday at DCA... didn't Ian have a chart or something that had like temperatures that we needed to be at or hit in the morning to reach 100? Like 90 by 10am?

Probably... but was thinking EHW just because first time it's really hot (temperatures near 100 and HI nearing 110)

Recurve and barely gets us anything