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Tornado Watch up until 7pm URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 600 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM EDT Mon Aug 7 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Western North Carolina Middle and Eastern Tennessee * Effective this Monday morning and evening from 1120 AM until 700 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A combination of supercells and intense clusters/line segments will pose a severe threat through the afternoon, including the possibility of tornadoes and widespread damaging winds. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 115 statute miles east and west of a line from 55 miles north of Knoxville TN to 60 miles south of Crossville TN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. &&

50/20 tor probs and 80/20 wind 30/30 hail

Large tornado watch posted out west URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 599 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1055 AM EDT Mon Aug 7 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Central and Eastern Kentucky Southern Ohio Southwest Pennsylvania Western Virginia West Virginia * Effective this Monday morning and evening from 1055 AM until 600 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes possible Widespread damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A very favorable scenario for intense supercell storms exists today, and severe storms are expected to develop and increase by midday/early afternoon across the region. A few tornadoes will be possible, along with hail and potentially widespread damaging winds, particularly later this afternoon as storms approach the Appalachians. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 100 statute miles east and west of a line from 50 miles north northeast of Parkersburg WV to 45 miles southwest of London KY. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

Sounds like Tornado Watch could be coming in a few hours per MCD Mesoscale Discussion 1878 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0933 AM CDT Mon Aug 07 2023 Areas affected...Portions of Tennessee Valley Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 071433Z - 071630Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...The threat for severe/damaging winds will increase over the next few hours. Tornadoes are also possible, particularly for more discrete storms across Tennessee. A watch is likely with timing probable by late morning. DISCUSSION...Convection is ongoing from Arkansas into western Tennessee. Given the speed and radar character of this suggests this activity is currently elevated in nature, especially farther west. However, modifying the 12Z observed OHX sounding for current surface conditions suggests that MLCIN is eroding rather quickly and strong/severe surface gusts may become more common in the next couple of hours. Wind profiles are strong for this time of year and 2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE is already present into the Tennessee Valley. Furthermore, low-level shear is certainly sufficient for low-level rotation. Aside from a threat for severe/damaging wind gusts, there is also potential for tornadoes. The main question will be storm mode. Forcing for ascent may be enough to drive a more linear mode than discrete. Convection in western Tennessee is showing some stronger velocities on KNQA imagery. A watch is likely, but the exact timing of the increase in storm intensity is uncertain. Observations and guidance would suggest this could occur by late morning. ..Wendt/Guyer.. 08/07/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1028 AM EDT Mon Aug 7 2023 .SYNOPSIS... Scattered to numerous strong to severe thunderstorms are expected today as a strong cold front pushes through the region. High pressure returns behind the front Tuesday into Wednesday with breezy conditions. A warm frontal boundary approaches from the south THursday into Friday bring additional showers and thunderstorms. Unsettled conditions linger into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... The forecast remains on track with a mesoscale convective vortex (MCV) lifting toward northwestern Pennsylvania. Some residual showers are pushing through Garrett, Mineral, and Allegany counties, but these are decaying with little to no lightning left. Elsewhere, a stagnant area of stratus clouds sit from the I-64 corridor northeastward into northern Virginia, as well as the DC/Baltimore metros. However, the aircraft soundings (ACAR) do show this low cloud deck being quite shallow in nature with a depth of about 200 meters (~650 feet). Given the early August solar insolation angle, these should burn off/erode within the next hour or two. Farther west, the Shenandoah Valley is under mainly sunny skies with convective initiation likely within the next few hours. Daytime heating brings temperatures into the upper 80s to low 90s. Combined with dew points in the low to mid 70s, expect peak heat indices between 100- 105 east of the Blue Ridge, and 95-99 west. This moist and unstable environment will fuel the active weather looming later in the day. Of note, the Storm Prediction Center has upgraded the risk area to Moderate which is seen only 2 to 3 times per decade in the area. Looking ahead at this afternoon and evening, given that we destabilize, all signs point to a likely widespread severe wind event across our area, though all modes of severe weather are possible. A large mid-level trough over the western OH Valley this morning will move eastward toward the Central Appalachians, with two surface lows noted early this morning - one over southern ON and the other along the IN/IL border. These surface lows deepen through the afternoon, with models indicating pressure in the low 1000mb range, which is quite impressive for early August (for a non-tropical low). Storms are expected to develop in a favorable environment today where surface dew points in the low 70s and impressive mid-level lapse rates of 6-7 C/km yield around 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE (SBCAPE up to 2500+ J/kg possible). Storms should easily become organized with deep-layer shear of 35-50KT. Multiple rounds of storms are likely to impact the area today. The moist airmass, approaching PVA max, and remnant MCV could initiate late morning to early afternoon activity west of I-81 into north- central MD. There is some potential for a storm or two to become severe, with damaging winds and hail as the main threats. The main surge is expected to develop by mid afternoon as the strong synoptic forcing arrives, and is enhanced by the existing terrain circulation and lee-side pressure trough. Models are rather good agreement on timing, indicating numerous storms developing west of the Blue Ridge between 2PM-3PM. These initial semi-discrete/cluster storms could pose a large hail threat, in addition to damaging wind gusts and a tornado or two. These storms move east of the Blue Ridge between 4PM-5PM, and likely congeal into a solid/quasi-solid line that reaches the I-95 corridor between 6PM-7PM. This QLCS will be capable of producing widespread damaging wind gusts, in addition to the possibility of embedded QLCS tornadoes. Tornadoes that develop within these squall lines typically have little lead time due to their rapid genesis. It is important to take immediate action if a Tornado Warning is issued for your area. The hail threat should diminish as the line of storms pushes eastward. Finally, as the main mid-level trough moves over our area it could initiate an additional broken line of showers and thunderstorms later this evening. A low-level jet will have developed by that time, and model soundings respond to the increasing low-level shear with very wide hodographs, especially east of the Blue Ridge. There will be a conditional tornado threat that lasts past sunset, and given the strong shear, it won`t take much instability for these storms to intensify. Be sure you have multiple ways of receiving severe weather alerts today, and take immediate action if a severe thunderstorm or tornado warning is issued for your location.

22z to 23z time period

Tornado Watch coming soon out west Mesoscale Discussion 1877 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0919 AM CDT Mon Aug 07 2023 Areas affected...portions of eastern Kentucky into far southern Ohio and western West Virginia Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 071419Z - 071545Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...The severe threat is increasing across portions of the OH Valley into the central Appalachians. Several instances of damaging winds are expected along with a few tornadoes. A Tornado Watch will be likely be needed soon. DISCUSSION...The boundary layer is destabilizing across portions of the TN/OH Valleys into the central Appalachians, with surface temperatures approaching 80 F amid 70+ F dewpoints, yielding 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE amid eroding MLCINH. At the same time, an 80+ kt 300 mb jet is rounding the base of the trough, encouraging strong 700 mb WAA and associated convective initiation across northern TN into southern OH. These storms should increase in coverage and intensity through the late morning/early afternoon hours. The 12Z BNA sounding showed a hodograph with strong low-level curvature and elongation, indicative of strong vertical shear coinciding the warm sector. As the upper trough and associated strong low-level flow shunt eastward toward the central Appalachians, many of the intensifying storms should become supercells, which will quickly merge into line segments. Several instances of damaging gusts and a few tornadoes are likely given the favorable overlapping buoyancy/vertical shear space. A Tornado Watch will likely be needed soon to address the impending severe threat. ..Squitieri/Guyer.. 08/07/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...

Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point

Okie dokie. Deleted my thread. Hopefully we see some sun soon

So... are we keeping it all in here or separately in a new thread?

Oh... well @mappy can delete my thread then lol Oh, never-ending, i can do thar if we are keeping stuff in here

Yeah 12z NAM Nest goes to town across the region

My post was the main NAM, not the NAM Nest. 03z has more severe stuff crossing the DC metro

12z NAM sim radar smokes N VA/DC/MD

Should be an interesting morning AFD update from LWX shortly

9am obs out towards the i81 corridor .SHENANDOAH VALLEY... CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS MARTINSBURG MOSUNNY 74 69 85 SW10G17 29.86S HAGERSTOWN APT MOSUNNY 75 69 81 S9 29.87S STAUNTON* SUNNY 74 70 85 S7 29.94F WINCHESTER* MOSUNNY 73 68 83 SW9 29.87S LURAY* SUNNY 73 68 83 SW6 29.89F NEW MARKET* SUNNY 76 73 91 SW8 29.90S WAYNESBORO* SUNNY 74 69 86 CALM 29.94F ...APPALACHIANS... CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS PETERSBURG WV* SUNNY 82 72 69 S8 29.87F CUMBERLAND* MOSUNNY 76 71 87 S3 29.90F OAKLAND* PTSUNNY 68 68 100 SW8G16 29.95F HOT SPRINGS* CLOUDY 70 70 100 SW13 30.06F ELKINS MOSUNNY 73 69 87 CALM 29.92F BEDFORD PA* PTSUNNY 72 72 98 CALM 29.87S JOHNSTOWN PTSUNNY 72 70 94 SW8 29.91R ALTOONA MOSUNNY 73 70 90 S7 29.88S

ZCZC SPCPWOSPC ALL WOUS40 KWNS 071302 DCZ000-DEZ000-GAZ000-KYZ000-MDZ000-NCZ000-PAZ000-SCZ000-TNZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-071800- PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0802 AM CDT MON AUG 07 2023 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the eastern U.S. today... * LOCATIONS... Virginia Central and southern West Virginia Maryland Eastern Tennessee Eastern Kentucky Southeast Pennsylvania Western and central North Carolina District of Columbia Western South Carolina Northern Georgia Delaware * HAZARDS... Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force A few tornadoes Isolated large hail up to baseball size * SUMMARY... A severe weather outbreak is possible across parts of the eastern U.S. today with widespread damaging winds, locally destructive, and isolated tornadoes as the greatest threats from the southern and central Appalachians to the Mid-Atlantic States. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A watch means that conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms over the next several hours. If a severe thunderstorm warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. && ..Grams.. 08/07/2023

12z HRRR has large squall line or bow echo moving into the region around 20z...

SPC AC 071244 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0744 AM CDT Mon Aug 07 2023 Valid 071300Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FAR EASTERN KY/NORTHEAST TN/NORTHWEST NC...WESTERN AND NORTHERN VA...SOUTHERN AND EASTERN WV...CENTRAL MD...AND FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL PA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SEPARATELY OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A severe weather outbreak is possible across parts of the eastern U.S. today with widespread damaging winds, locally destructive, and isolated tornadoes as the greatest threats from the southern and central Appalachians to the Mid-Atlantic States. ...Southeast to the Upper OH Valley to the Mid-Atlantic States... A shortwave trough over the Lower OH Valley will advance across the northern Appalachians by this evening. A pair of 500-mb speed maxima from 55-65 kts are expected to be centered by late afternoon across eastern KY/TN and southern WV into western VA/NC, and separately over the Mid-South. Peak flow within an expansive 700-mb jet should be centered between the 500-mb maxima across the TN Valley. A plume of large potential buoyancy supported by high PW and steep mid-level lapse rates, and centered over the Mid-South/TN Valley will expand east-northeast towards the central/southern Appalachians with an expansive swath of MLCAPE from 2000-3500 J/kg expected by peak heating. The 12Z BNA sounding well-sampled this potentially volatile environment. To the north of the steeper mid-level lapse rate plume, minimal inhibition will result in scattered thunderstorms forming by midday centered on far southern OH across eastern KY ahead of the aforementioned trough. This activity will progress into an increasingly favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment downstream, yielding many supercells capable of producing large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. Upscale growth into several linear clusters with embedded supercells is anticipated during the afternoon as convective coverage becomes widespread from PA/MD south-southwest across the southern Appalachian states. Forecast soundings suggest the greatest tornado threat will probably exist across eastern KY/TN northeast across southern/eastern WV, western VA, central MD and into southeast PA. Given the supercell wind profiles, significant severe wind gusts will also be possible on a localized basis. Across the Southeast, the separate mid-level speed max approaching the Mid-South, aiding in the low-level warm-advection regime of elevated thunderstorms over OK/AR this morning, will likely support scattered surface-based thunderstorms forming across the TN Valley by early afternoon. With large buoyancy downstream within the gradient of the strong low to mid-level flow, an extensive linear MCS will likely develop and spread east-southeast across the Carolinas and GA. Widespread damaging winds will be possible here as well, with convection likely weakening towards/after sunset as it approaches the south Atlantic coast.

Large 45 percent hatched wind

Um, that's a large 10% tor probs on the 1300z SPC OTLK... was not really expecting that