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yoda

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  1. yoda
    60/30 tor probs 90/40 wind probs on the watch
  2. yoda
  3. yoda
    URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 602 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 120 PM EDT Mon Aug 7 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of District Of Columbia Maryland Southern and Central Pennsylvania Virginia Eastern West Virginia Coastal Waters * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 120 PM until 900 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Widespread damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A very favorable setup for severe thunderstorms including tornadoes and widespread damaging winds is unfolding across the region, with severe storms expected to steadily develop and increase across the region this afternoon. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles east and west of a line from 50 miles southeast of Charlottesville VA to 50 miles northwest of Williamsport PA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 599...WW 600...WW 601... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25030. ...Guyer
  4. yoda
    TOR Watch up till 9pm for the region... pretty large box... goes from RIC to the NY/PA border
  5. yoda
    STW issued by LWX for Garrett... ping pong ball sized hail and winds to 60
  6. yoda
    TOR Preston County WV with ping pong sized hail as well
  7. yoda
    The MCD was for tornado watch coming for our region and it's image highlighted the area for greater tor potential
  8. yoda
    Probably because SPC posted that hatched tor area in their MCD over DC metro...
  9. yoda
    Isn't that an hour from now?
  10. yoda
    Got to think the TOR Watch is coming shortly
  11. yoda
    So it begins BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1254 PM EDT Mon Aug 7 2023 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Northwestern Washington County in north central Maryland... Northeastern Allegany County in western Maryland... North central Frederick County in northwestern Virginia... Morgan County in the Panhandle of West Virginia... East central Mineral County in eastern West Virginia... Northwestern Berkeley County in the Panhandle of West Virginia... Northeastern Hampshire County in eastern West Virginia... * Until 145 PM EDT. * At 1253 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 8 miles southeast of Fort Ashby, or 9 miles northeast of Romney, moving northeast at 55 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... Romney, Paw Paw, Greenwood, Berkeley Springs, Springfield, Great Cacapon, Green Spring, Oldtown, Little Orleans, Johnsons Mill, Valley View, Fishers Bridge, Spohrs Crossroads, Oakland, Rock Gap, Bloomery, Points, Smith Crossroads, Unger and Wapocomo. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. Large hail and damaging winds and continuous cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm. Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature`s leading killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. && LAT...LON 3972 7834 3964 7809 3959 7812 3959 7814 3941 7822 3931 7873 3940 7880 3944 7877 3946 7874 3972 7837 TIME...MOT...LOC 1653Z 240DEG 49KT 3943 7862 HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH
  12. yoda
    Pretty much all the STWs coming out of RLX right now are getting the TOR possible tag
  13. yoda
    CZC SPCPWOSPC ALL WOUS40 KWNS 071649 DCZ000-DEZ000-GAZ000-KYZ000-MDZ000-NCZ000-PAZ000-SCZ000-TNZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-080200- PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1149 AM CDT MON AUG 07 2023 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the Eastern U.S. this afternoon and evening... * LOCATIONS... Virginia West Virginia Maryland Eastern Tennessee Eastern Kentucky Southern Pennsylvania Western and Central North Carolina District of Columbia Western South Carolina Northern Georgia Delaware * HAZARDS... Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force A few tornadoes Isolated large hail up to baseball size * SUMMARY... A severe weather outbreak is expected across parts of the eastern U.S. today with widespread and locally destructive damaging winds and tornadoes as the greatest threats, especially across the southern/central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic States. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A watch means that conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms over the next several hours. If a severe thunderstorm warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. && ..Guyer.. 08/07/2023
  14. yoda
    SPC AC 071640 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 AM CDT Mon Aug 07 2023 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR EASTERN KY/NORTHEAST TN/NORTHWEST NC...WESTERN AND NORTHERN VA...SOUTHERN AND EASTERN WV...CENTRAL MD...AND SOUTH-CENTRAL PA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A severe weather outbreak is expected across parts of the eastern U.S. today with widespread and locally destructive damaging winds and tornadoes as the greatest threats, especially across the southern/central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic States. ...Southeast to the Upper Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic States... Owing to a very moist/unstable air mass and very strong winds aloft for August, a widespread severe-weather risk is already unfolding at late morning/midday across a broad region, initially west of the Appalachians spine. Refer to ongoing Watches and Mesoscale Discussions for the latest regional details. A shortwave trough over the Lower Ohio Valley will continue to advance toward the northern Appalachians by evening. A pair of 500-mb speed maxima from 55-65 kts are expected to be centered by late afternoon across eastern KY/TN and southern WV into western VA/NC, and separately over the Mid-South. Peak flow within an expansive 700-mb jet should be centered between the 500-mb maxima across the TN Valley. A plume of large potential buoyancy supported by high PW and steep mid-level lapse rates, and centered over the Mid-South/TN Valley will expand east-northeast towards the central/southern Appalachians with an expansive swath of MLCAPE from 2000-3500 J/kg expected by peak heating. Ongoing storms across eastern portions of TN/KY and WV/southern OH will progress into an increasingly favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment downstream, yielding many supercells capable of producing large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. Upscale growth into several linear clusters with embedded supercells is anticipated this afternoon as convective coverage becomes widespread from PA/MD south-southwest across the southern Appalachian states. Forecast soundings suggest the greatest tornado threat will probably exist across eastern KY/TN northeast across southern/eastern WV, western VA, central MD and into southeast PA. Given the supercell wind profiles, significant severe wind gusts will also be possible on a localized basis. Across the Southeast, aided by a separate mid-level speed max, linear clusters of storms will continue to develop and spread generally eastward across parts of the TN Valley toward the southern Appalachians and Carolinas, with damaging winds as the most common hazard.
  15. yoda
    No changes that I can see on wind or hail or tor probs
  16. yoda
    Huh.. kept the large 10 percent with no change
  17. yoda
    30 seems high... maybe 15 hatched?
  18. yoda
    Betting 10% hatched tor is coming on 1630z OTLK
  19. yoda
    Strong tornado mentioned in the MCD
  20. yoda
    Jesus that SWS is scary
  21. yoda
    Good... Our first catch of the day
  22. yoda
    Rotation and TVS markers starting to show up in WV on Radarscope
  23. yoda
    I thought it was the trashcans we had to watch out for
  24. yoda
    Which will come first - our MCD or the 1630z SPC OTLK?
  25. yoda
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