Jump to content

yoda

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    60,261

  • Joined

 Content Type 

Everything posted by yoda

  1. yoda
    BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 949 PM EDT Sat Aug 12 2023 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Garrett County in western Maryland... * Until 1030 PM EDT. * At 949 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 7 miles south of Farmington, or 15 miles southeast of Uniontown, moving southeast at 40 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... Mountain Lake Park, Oakland, Bittinger, Grantsville, Loch Lynn Heights, Friendsville, Deer Park, Accident, Merrill, Keysers Ridge, Jennings, Mineral Spring, Deep Creek Lake State Park, Swallow Falls State Park, McHenry, Selbysport, Big Run State Park, New Germany, Piney Grove, and McComas Beach. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. PBZ: Great to hear. && LAT...LON 3972 7893 3948 7907 3948 7910 3943 7911 3943 7913 3941 7914 3942 7916 3939 7916 3939 7919 3936 7922 3936 7925 3934 7926 3931 7928 3945 7948 3972 7948 TIME...MOT...LOC 0149Z 295DEG 37KT 3971 7955 HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH
  2. yoda
    925pm AFD from LWX about tonight .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... The Storms Prediction Center has issued a Severe Thunderstorm Watch for western and portions of central Maryland and much of eastern West Virginia, including the Eastern Panhandle with exception to Jefferson County, until 2am tonight. A broad area of heavy showers and strong to severe thunderstorms are moving northwest to southeast across southwestern Pennsylvania and northern West Virginia. The embedded severe thunderstorms have been capable of producing tornadoes in our neighboring CWA offices. Otherwise, heavy rainfall, frequent lightning, damaging winds and large hail are all possible or will be common with this intense thunderstorm activity. Shortly before 10pm, Garrett County could be the first zone to get intense storms. These storms have a lot of lightning and are capable of wrapping up into tornadoes based on radar indication. Be cautious about late evening activities outdoors. Additional zones to the east and south will likely be affected through midnight to 1am. Some decrease in thunderstorm intensity and coverage is possible and could occur shortly after midnight along and just east of the mountains, but just be aware that the Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect until 2am tonight. Beyond 2am, there is some uncertainty as to where and how much of this convection could persist and remain potent into the overnight hours. Therefore, we are glossily monitoring the activity in case additional watches or warnings may be needed into the overnight. Model guidance seems to indicate that the trend will be decreasing around and beyond 2am. We are cautiously optimistic on this due to the CAPE and wind shear available at such a late evening hour. Once convection wains some or most, temperatures will drop back into the upper 60s to lower 70s.
  3. yoda
    SLGT risk nudged southward into N VA to include BR and to the NW on 01z SPC OTLK
  4. yoda
    That's a good amount of TWs showing up right now entering SW PA and W WV
  5. yoda
    000 WWUS61 KLWX 130009 WCNLWX WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION FOR WATCH 639 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 809 PM EDT SAT AUG 12 2023 MDC001-023-043-WVC003-023-027-031-057-065-130600- /O.NEW.KLWX.SV.A.0639.230813T0009Z-230813T0600Z/ THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 639 IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IN MARYLAND THIS WATCH INCLUDES 3 COUNTIES IN NORTH CENTRAL MARYLAND WASHINGTON IN WESTERN MARYLAND ALLEGANY GARRETT IN WEST VIRGINIA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 6 COUNTIES IN EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA GRANT HAMPSHIRE HARDY MINERAL IN THE EASTERN PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA BERKELEY MORGAN THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF CUMBERLAND, FORT ASHBY, FROSTBURG, GRANTSVILLE, HAGERSTOWN, KEYSER, MARTINSBURG, MOOREFIELD, MOUNTAIN LAKE PARK, OAKLAND, PAW PAW, PETERSBURG, AND ROMNEY.
  6. yoda
    Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 2am coming for NW portion of the LWX CWA
  7. yoda
    For those out in W MD and the NW portion of the LWX CWA https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1975.html Mesoscale Discussion 1975 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0631 PM CDT Sat Aug 12 2023 Areas affected...portions of southeastern OH...northern WV...southwestern PA and western MD. Concerning...Tornado Watch 634... Valid 122331Z - 130100Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 634 continues. SUMMARY...Ongoing severe storms in the southern half of WW634 will likely persist beyond the 01z expiration. A new watch will likely be needed. DISCUSSION...As of 2330 UTC, several supercells were ongoing across parts of far eastern OH, and western PA. These storms have maintained intensity and should continue to do so after the 01z expiration of WW634. 40-50 kt of effective shear and 1500 J/kg of MLCAPE will favor organized storms including supercells and short line segments. Damaging wind gusts and hail appear likely with the strongest storms into this evening. Veered low-level flow in the wake of the earlier rounds of storms suggests the tornado threat is not overly high. However, a brief tornado will remain possible given the supercell mode and 15-20 kt of 0-1km shear. The severe threat will likely extend beyond the 01z expiration of WW634. A new watch will likely replace southern parts of the watch to cover the severe risk into early tonight. ..Lyons/Thompson.. 08/12/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...
  8. yoda
    Kinda neat
  9. yoda
    18z NAM back with some really impressive soundings for the region late Monday evening into the overnight....don't remember seeing STP of 7 to 8 with large curved hodographs and MLCAPE over 2K
  10. yoda
    Sounds like an interesting evening into overnight coming? NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Latest satellite imagery shows a CU field developing beneath a mid-level stratus deck. Most of the cu south of Mason-Dixon has been more shallow compared to the cu north into central PA. Overall thinking through this afternoon is any storms that do develop should be pretty isolated in nature and not last long for any given location. Focus then turns to this evening. There are a few main periods of interest: 1) The northern periphery of the decaying MCS over West Virginia is progged to move over the forecast area early this evening (20-23Z). This will need to be monitored as it could lead to the development of a rogue thunderstorm, which could be supercellular given soundings somewhere across central or northern VA. 2) The approaching frontal boundary from the northwest. While the better forcing is indeed to the north, guidance continues to bring convection into western Maryland and the eastern WV Panhandle between 22-06Z. This area has the greatest potential to see SVR wx as indicated by the slight risk from SPC. Greatest threat appears to be wind, especially if an MCS forms upstream. 3) A small jetlet (25-35 kts) is forecast to develop near the US-29/I-95 corridor this evening (00-06Z). There is also some backed flow near a pressure trough at the sfc. Some guidance has redevelopment off the aforementioned threat from above near the nose of the jet. This makes sense if the abundant CAPE over the Bay is advected onshore. Otherwise, summer heat will continue today with high temperatures in the low 90s, accompanied by a notable increase in humidity. The addition of humidity will fuel heat indices into the mid 90s, particularly east of the Blue Ridge and Catoctins.
  11. yoda
    Morning AFD from LWX on the Monday evening into Monday night severe threat Monday presents yet another chance for some severe thunderstorms, particularly late Monday into Monday night. A potent low pressure system will scoot by well to our north across the Great Lakes region. This will be accompanied by positively tilted and relatively deep upper trough (for August). As this approaches from the west, expect shower and thunderstorms to develop late Monday into Monday night. Could see some development ahead of the primary system as well along the lee trough due to diurnal heating as well. As usual, these could bring some isolated damaging wind gusts. But the main threat comes with the Monday night round. Damaging wind gusts and large hail are the primary concerns with these storms. Additionally, flooding can`t be ruled out, especially if the front manages to stall near the area. Do think the deep southerlies should push the warm front north of the area rather quickly, but still, given 2+ inch PWATs and a lingering boundary, there exists at least an isolated flooding threat Monday night.
  12. yoda
    That is a sounding for KDCA Sounding location in PG County/Charles County area of MD
  13. yoda
    Guess @weatherwiz is headed west
  14. yoda
    ENH risk up on new Day 1 for C and N PA into S NY
  15. yoda
    00z NAM throwing up some alarming soundings for Monday night -- yes, caveats apply and the such but still... yikes
  16. yoda
  17. yoda
    Dora was classified as TY by JMA/RSMC Tokyo at 0300 hours 8/12 https://www.jma.go.jp/jma/jma-eng/jma-center/rsmc-hp-pub-eg/RSMC_HP.htm
  18. yoda
    Morning AFD from LWX about Monday's severe weather threat mentions August 7th as reference LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A rather potent mid-upper level trough/closed low will pivot through the eastern Great Lakes early next week pushing a strong cold front through the region Monday night. Timing differences among global models have diminished considerably since yesterday indicating a sharp frontal passage across the area around 06Z Tue per ECMWF, slower timing on the GFS. Strong height falls (110 meter/24 hr) are fcst across the region during the day Monday, which are similar in magnitude to what we saw this past Mon Aug 07. Strong mid-level wind speeds will enhance the potential for severe wx. Latest timing from Euro and GFS show the best potential for thunderstorms later at night in the 00Z-06Z Tue time frame which may temper the severe wx risk somewhat. Additional showers will remain possible during the middle of next week as individual shortwaves rotate around the mean trof, but it looks as moisture and instability will be fairly limited. Flooding risk will remain very minimal due to expected very fast storm motions.
  19. yoda
    Preliminary Local Storm Report National Weather Service Wakefield VA 755 PM EDT Mon Aug 7 2023 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0705 PM Hail 1 SSW Fort A.p. Hill 38.10N 77.27W 08/07/2023 M4.00 inch Caroline VA Trained Spotter Time estimated from radar. Hail stone was measured approximately 15 minutes after the hail core passed over this location.
  20. yoda
    Meanwhile down in AKQ CWA... Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Wakefield VA 729 PM EDT Mon Aug 7 2023 VAC033-057-159-193-080000- /O.CON.KAKQ.SV.W.0201.000000T0000Z-230808T0000Z/ Richmond VA-Caroline VA-Westmoreland VA-Essex VA- 729 PM EDT Mon Aug 7 2023 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT FOR NORTHWESTERN RICHMOND...NORTHEASTERN CAROLINE...SOUTHWESTERN WESTMORELAND AND NORTHWESTERN ESSEX COUNTIES... At 727 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Loretto, or 7 miles northwest of Champlain, moving east at 30 mph. HAZARD...Tennis ball size hail and 70 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. At 7:20 PM EDT, baseball sized hail was reported between Bowling Green and Port Royal. IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect considerable tree damage. Wind damage is also likely to mobile homes, roofs, and outbuildings. This severe storm will be near... Leedstown around 735 PM EDT. Montross and Newland around 745 PM EDT. Other locations impacted by this severe thunderstorm include Lerty, Ethel, Currioman Landing, Hustle, Oak Grove, Supply, Singerly, Mount Holly, Peeds, and Foneswood. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 900 PM EDT for north central and east central Virginia. Remain alert for a possible tornado! Tornadoes can develop quickly from severe thunderstorms. If you spot a tornado go at once into the basement or small central room in a sturdy structure. For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. This thunderstorm is capable of producing all types of severe weather including extremely large hail, destructive straight line winds and tornadoes. Move quickly to a safe shelter, such as an interior room, a bathroom or closet or basement. && LAT...LON 3804 7721 3818 7719 3817 7717 3817 7713 3815 7712 3816 7709 3814 7708 3815 7707 3819 7705 3820 7691 3818 7688 3816 7684 3817 7676 3816 7669 3798 7673 TIME...MOT...LOC 2327Z 265DEG 28KT 3809 7709 TORNADO...POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE HAIL THREAT...OBSERVED MAX HAIL SIZE...2.50 IN WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX WIND GUST...70 MPH
  21. yoda
    Ripping rain here right now
  22. yoda
    Tornado Warning SW Spotsy County
  23. yoda
    Here comes the wind here in West Springfield
  24. yoda
    BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 519 PM EDT Mon Aug 7 2023 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... The City of Fairfax in northern Virginia... The western City of Falls Church in northern Virginia... Central Fairfax County in northern Virginia... The City of Manassas Park in northern Virginia... Central Prince William County in northern Virginia... The City of Manassas in northern Virginia... * Until 545 PM EDT. * At 519 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Bull Run, or 7 miles southwest of Centreville, moving east at 55 mph. THIS IS A DESTRUCTIVE STORM FOR THE CITY OF MANASSAS, CLIFTON, BURKE, AND ANNANDALE. HAZARD...80 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Expect considerable damage to trees and power lines. Your life is at significant risk if outdoors. In addition to some trees falling into homes, wind damage is possible to roofs, sheds, open garages, and mobile homes. * Locations impacted include... Centreville, Annandale, Springfield, Fairfax, Vienna, Falls Church, Mantua, Fort Belvoir, Lake Ridge, Burke, Linton Hall, Oakton, Lincolnia, Lorton, Franconia, Merrifield, Bull Run, Newington, Lake Barcroft and I66 and I495 Interchange. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. This is an EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION with tornado like wind speeds expected. Mobile homes and high profile vehicles are especially susceptible to winds of this magnitude and may be overturned. For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. This storm has the potential to cause serious injury and significant property damage.
  25. yoda
    Uh oh @MN Transplant @mattie g @H2O
×
×
  • Create New...