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Tropical Storm Idalia Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023 1000 AM CDT Mon Aug 28 2023 The satellite presentation of the storm has improved this morning with the center more deeply embedded within the deep convection and colder cloud tops. However, recent reconnaissance aircraft data from both the U.S. Air Force Reserve and NOAA indicate that the improved satellite presentation has not yet resulted in an increase in wind speed. The Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft has measured peak 850-mb flight-level winds of 68 kt, and a minimum pressure around 990 mb. Based on these data, the initial intensity remains 55 kt this advisory. The Air Force aircraft will be in the storm environment through early afternoon and that data should continue to provide information Idalia's structure and intensity. Recent satellite and aircraft fixes show that Idalia is moving northward or 360/8 kt. A mid-level trough over the central Gulf of Mexico and a ridge near the Greater Antilles should cause Idalia to move northward at a faster forward speed during the next 12-24 hours. After that time, an even faster north-northeast motion is expected an another mid-level trough moves across the central and eastern portions of the United States. The latest NHC track forecast is again quite similar to the previous forecast. Although the track forecast has been quite consistent, there is still some spread in the guidance by 48 hours, and it cannot be emphasized enough that only a small deviation in the track could cause a significant change in Idalia's landfall location in Florida due to the paralleling track to the west coast of the state. Although there is still some moderate northwesterly over the storm, intensification seems likely during the next 12-18 hours, and Idalia is forecast to become a hurricane during that time. By Tuesday, the environment over the eastern Gulf of Mexico is expected to become more conducive for strengthening. Steady to rapid intensification is predicted beginning Tuesday while Idalia traverses the warm waters of the eastern Gulf and the upper-level environment becomes more favorable. The NHC intensity forecast again calls for Idalia to reach major hurricane strength before landfall along the Gulf coast of Florida. This forecast has necessitated the issuance of Storm Surge and Hurricane Warnings for portions of the west coast of Florida and Storm Surge and Tropical Storm Watches for portions of the Atlantic coasts of Florida and Georgia. KEY MESSAGES: 1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation along portions of the Florida Gulf Coast where a Storm Surge Warning is in effect, including Tampa Bay and the Big Bend region of Florida. Inundation of 7 to 11 feet above ground level is expected somewhere between Chassahowitzka and Aucilla River. Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by local officials. 2. Hurricane conditions are expected within portions of the Hurricane Warning area along the Florida Gulf Coast, with the potential for destructive winds where the core of Idalia moves onshore. Strong winds will also spread inland across portions of northern Florida near the track of the center of Idalia. 3. Areas of flash and urban flooding, some of which may be locally significant, are expected across portions of the west coast of Florida, the Florida Panhandle, and southern Georgia Tuesday into Wednesday, spreading into portions of the eastern Carolinas Wednesday into Thursday. 4. Hurricane-force winds are expected across portions of far western Cuba later today. Heavy rainfall is also expected across portions of western Cuba and may produce areas of flash and urban flooding as well as landslides across western Cuba. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/1500Z 20.8N 85.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 29/0000Z 22.0N 85.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 29/1200Z 23.9N 85.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 30/0000Z 26.4N 84.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 30/1200Z 29.2N 83.5W 100 KT 115 MPH 60H 31/0000Z 31.9N 81.2W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 72H 31/1200Z 33.6N 78.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER 96H 01/1200Z 34.6N 71.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 02/1200Z 34.5N 67.0W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown

WTNT43 KNHC 281459 TCDAT3 Hurricane Franklin Discussion Number 32 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023 1100 AM EDT Mon Aug 28 2023 Visible, infrared and microwave imagery depict a strengthening major hurricane with a well-defined eye, a thick eyewall, and very cold cloud tops. This was further supported by data from the Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters, who have been investigating the storm this morning. Minimum pressure has decreased from the previous advisory based on a dropsonde measuring a pressure of 937 mb around 12 UTC. Flight-level, SFMR winds and dropsondes in the eyewall indicate maximum sustained winds have increased to 125 kt. Subjective and object satellite estimates also have drastically increased with this advisory. Given these data, the initial intensity is raised to 125 kt for this advisory, and Franklin has rapidly intensified into a Category 4 major hurricane. The hurricane continues to make a gradual turn northward, with the latest motion estimate northward at 350/8 kt. A northward then northeastward motion is forecast during the next 48 hours as Franklin rounds the western edge of the subtropical ridge. After 48 hours, a deep trough is expected to move off the U.S. northeast coast and Canada, and has Franklin becoming captured in the southwesterly flow, with an increase in forward motion to the northeast. There is better agreement in cross-track guidance compared to the previous few advisories. However, there is still a slight difference in the along track guidance with the GFS being faster, and the ECMWF a little slower. The latest NHC track forecast is similar to the previous forecast, with only a minor nudge to the north. Some additional intensification is possible today, as Franklin remains in a low shear environment and is over warm sea-surface temperatures. The latest intensity forecast peaks Franklin as a strong Category 4 major hurricane. However, inner core changes, such as eyewall replacement cycles, could occur at any time, making the peak intensity and short-term forecast a little more challenging. Some gradual weakening is forecast in about a day or so when models forecast a slight increase in northwesterly shear. Toward the end of the forecast period, further weakening is expected as Franklin encounters increased vertical wind shear and moves over cooler SSTs. The latest forecast shows the storm becoming a extratropical cyclone in 120 h, though this could occur sooner. KEY MESSAGES: 1.Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda beginning Wednesday morning, when Franklin is forecast to make its closest approach to the island. 2. Life-threatening surf and rip currents are occurring along the coast of the southeast United States. These conditions are expected to spread northward along the remainder of the U.S. east coast, Atlantic Canada, and Bermuda during the next couple of days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/1500Z 27.8N 71.0W 125 KT 145 MPH 12H 29/0000Z 29.0N 71.2W 135 KT 155 MPH 24H 29/1200Z 30.7N 70.8W 130 KT 150 MPH 36H 30/0000Z 32.5N 69.6W 120 KT 140 MPH 48H 30/1200Z 34.5N 67.4W 110 KT 125 MPH 60H 31/0000Z 36.3N 64.1W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 31/1200Z 38.7N 59.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 01/1200Z 44.5N 49.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 02/1200Z 51.8N 39.8W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Kelly/Brown

TS Watch up for Bermuda TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM BULLETIN Hurricane Franklin Advisory Number 32 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023 1100 AM EDT Mon Aug 28 2023 ...FRANKLIN RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES INTO A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR BERMUDA... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.8N 71.0W ABOUT 440 MI...710 KM N OF GRAND TURK ISLAND ABOUT 480 MI...770 KM SW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...937 MB...27.67 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Meteorological Service of Bermuda has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for Bermuda. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Franklin was located near latitude 27.8 North, longitude 71.0 West. Franklin is moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h). This northward to north-northeastward motion with a slightly faster forward speed is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Franklin is expected to pass well west of Bermuda on Wednesday. Based on data from the Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft, maximum sustained winds have increased to near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher gusts. Franklin is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional strengthening is possible today, but gradual weakening is expected to begin later Tuesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 937 mb based on data from aircraft reconnaissance (27.67 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells, life-threatening surf and rip currents generated by Franklin are beginning to affect Bermuda and the Southeast United States and are expected to spread northward along the east coast of the United States, Atlantic Canada, during the next couple of days. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by Wednesday morning. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Kelly/Brown

Hurricane Warning up for Tampa Bay proper

Tropical Storm Idalia Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023 1000 AM CDT Mon Aug 28 2023 ...STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND DANGEROUS WINDS BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF FLORIDA... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.8N 85.2W ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM SSW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA ABOUT 305 MI...495 KM SSW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Storm Surge Warning has been issued from Englewood northward to the Ochlockonee River, including Tampa Bay. A Hurricane Warning has been issued from the Middle of Longboat Key northward to the Holocene River, including Tampa Bay. A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from Chokoloskee northward to the Middle of Longboat Key, and from west of the Lockheed River westward to Indian Pass. A Storm Surge Watch has been issued from Mouth of the St. Mary's River to Altamaha Sound, Georgia. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the Atlantic coast of Florida and Georgia from Sebastian Inlet, Florida northward to Altamaha Sound, Georgia. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Englewood northward to the Ochlockonee River, including Tampa Bay A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Cuban province of Pinar del Rio * Middle of Longboat Key northward to the Ochlockonee River, including Tampa Bay A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Yucatan Peninsula from Tulum to Rio Lagartos, including Cozumel * Isle of Youth Cuba * Dry Tortugas Florida * Chokoloskee northward to the Middle of Longboat Key * West of the Ochlockonee River westward to Indian Pass A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Chokoloskee northward to Englewood, including Charlotte Harbour * Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass Florida * Mouth of the St. Mary's River to Altamaha Sound Georgia A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Englewood to the Middle of Longboat Key * West of the Ochlockonee River westward to Indian Pass A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * South of the Middle of Longboat Key to Chokoloskee Florida * West of the Ochlockonee River westward to Indian Pass A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Lower Florida Keys west of the west end of the Seven Mile Bridge * Sebastian Inlet Florida northward to Altamaha Sound Georgia A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12-24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests along the southeastern U.S. coast should monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required later today. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Idalia was located near latitude 20.8 North, longitude 85.2 West. Idalia is moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h). A northward motion is expected through tonight, followed by a faster north-northeast motion on Tuesday and Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Idalia is forecast to pass near or over western Cuba tonight, over the extreme southeastern Gulf of Mexico by early Tuesday, and reach the Gulf coast of Florida on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Idalia is forecast to become a hurricane later today and a dangerous major hurricane over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico by early Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The latest minimum central pressure estimated from data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is 990 mb (29.24 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Idalia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Aucilla River, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL...7-11 ft Chassahowitzka, FL to Anclote River, FL...6-9 ft Ochlockonee River, FL to Aucilla River, FL...4-7 ft Anclote River, FL to Middle of Longboat Key, FL...4-7 ft Tampa Bay...4-7 ft Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Englewood, FL...3-5 ft Englewood, FL to Chokoloskee, FL...2-4 ft Charlotte Harbor...2-4 ft Indian Pass, FL to Ochlockonee River, FL...2-4 ft Mouth of the St. Mary's River to Altamaha Sound, GA...2-4 ft Chokoloskee, FL to East Cape Sable, FL...1-3 ft Flagler/Volusia County Line, FL to Mouth of the St. Mary's River...1-3 ft Florida Keys...1-2 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. Storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above normal tide levels along the southern coast of Pinar del Rio, Cuba. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large waves. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area in western Cuba later today. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm strength by this morning, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the tropical storm warning area over the Yucatan Peninsula and the Isle of Youth in Cuba through today Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area in Florida by late Tuesday or Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions beginning on Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Dry Tortugas beginning late today and within the tropical storm warning area along the Florida Gulf coast on Tuesday. RAINFALL: Idalia is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Portions of the eastern Yucatan: Additional 1 to 2 inches. Western Cuba: 4 to 7 inches, with isolated higher totals of 10 inches. Portions of the west coast of Florida, the Florida Panhandle, southeast Georgia and the eastern Carolinas: 4 to 8 inches from Tuesday into Thursday. Isolated higher totals of 12 inches possible, primarily near landfall in northern Florida. This rainfall may lead to flash and urban flooding, and landslides across western Cuba. Areas of flash and urban flooding, some of which may be locally significant, are expected across portions of the west coast of Florida, the Florida Panhandle, and southern Georgia Tuesday into Wednesday, spreading into portions of the eastern Carolinas Wednesday into Thursday. SURF: Swells generated by Idalia are affecting portions of the southern coast of Cuba and eastern Yucatan. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. TORNADO: A few tornadoes will be possible starting Tuesday along the west central Florida coast and the tornado threat will spread northward into the Florida Big Bend area by Tuesday night. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown

Still 65mph at 11

Just offshore near SC/NC border at 120 at 999mb

00z Euro into the Big Bend of FL... 987mb SLP around hr 90

BULLETIN Tropical Depression Ten Intermediate Advisory Number 2A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023 100 AM CDT Sun Aug 27 2023 ...DEPRESSION BRINGING GUSTY WINDS TO NORTHEASTERN MEXICO... ...LIKELY TO BECOME A HURRICANE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN A FEW DAYS... SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.7N 86.8W ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM NNE OF COZUMEL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 230 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Yucatan Peninsula from Tulum to Rio Lagartos, including Cozumel * Pinar del Rio Cuba A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Isle of Youth Cuba A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests in Florida should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ten was located near latitude 20.7 North, longitude 86.8 West. The depression is moving toward the southwest near 5 mph (7 km/h), and it is likely to meander near the Yucatan Channel through early Monday. A faster motion toward the north or north-northeast is expected later on Monday, bringing the system over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next few days. The depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today and a hurricane by Tuesday. A Weatherflow station on Cozumel recently reported a sustained wind of 36 mph (57 km/h) and a wind gust of 48 mph (78 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches) based on surface observations from Cozumel and Playa del Carmen

00z CMC drops 2-4 inches from around a CHO to DCA and SEward line into S MD and the Eastern Shore with TD 10 on Friday 00z GFS says that the region gets no rain from TD 10

000 WTNT45 KNHC 270244 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Ten Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023 1000 PM CDT Sat Aug 26 2023 Images from the Mexico meteorological service's radar in Cancun show that the depression has a small but well-defined circulation with spiral banding extending no more than about 60 n mi from the center. This feature is embedded within a larger circulation with scattered deep convection covering the northwestern Caribbean Sea, extreme southeastern Gulf of Mexico, and adjacent land areas. The initial intensity is set to 30 kt based on the latest subjective Dvorak estimate from TAFB and objective numbers from UW-CIMSS. The depression appears to be drifting toward the southwest with an initial motion of 230/2 kt, with low- to mid-level ridging located to its north and northwest. The system is expected to continue meandering over the northwestern Caribbean Sea for the next 24-36 hours. After that time, a developing trough over the Gulf of Mexico and strengthening ridging over the western Atlantic is expected to begin lifting the system toward the north and north-northeast over the eastern Gulf of Mexico toward Florida, and then near the southeastern coast of the U.S. The updated NHC track forecast lies on top of or very near the previous prediction and closely follows the TVCX and HCCA consensus aids. Assuming the depression's center does not move over the Yucatan Peninsula, very warm waters and low to moderate vertical shear should support gradual strengthening during the next few days. The NHC intensity prediction is a little below the consensus aids during the first 36 hours of the forecast but then converges with those aids thereafter, showing the system reaching hurricane strength by 60 hours. The system is expected to remain a hurricane, and potentially continue strengthening, up until it reaches the Gulf coast of Florida on Wednesday. Users are reminded to continue monitoring forecasts for any changes to the system's expected intensity as it approaches Florida. Land interaction and increasing shear should lead to fast weakening after the system moves over land, but it could still produce tropical-storm-force winds near and offshore the southeastern coast of the U.S. even if the center is inland. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Heavy rainfall from Tropical Depression Ten is expected across the eastern Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba. The heavy rainfall may produce areas of flash and urban flooding, as well as landslides, across western Cuba. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm by Sunday, and tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and extreme western Cuba where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. Tropical storm conditions are possible on the Isle of Youth, where a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect. 2. The depression is forecast to strengthen during the next few days and could become a hurricane over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, bringing a potential of dangerous storm surge, heavy rainfall, and strong winds to portions of the west coast of Florida and the Florida Panhandle by the middle of next week. Heavy rainfall is also likely to spread into portions of the Southeast U.S. by mid to late next week. Although it is too soon to specify the exact location and magnitude of these impacts, residents in these areas should monitor updates to the forecast of this system and ensure that they have their hurricane plan in place. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0300Z 21.1N 86.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 27/1200Z 20.9N 86.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 28/0000Z 20.9N 86.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 28/1200Z 21.6N 85.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 29/0000Z 23.1N 85.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 29/1200Z 25.0N 85.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 30/0000Z 27.5N 84.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 31/0000Z 32.7N 81.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 120H 01/0000Z 35.2N 76.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Berg

BULLETIN Tropical Depression Ten Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023 1000 PM CDT Sat Aug 26 2023 ...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON SUNDAY... ...LIKELY TO BECOME A HURRICANE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN A FEW DAYS... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.1N 86.4W ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM NE OF COZUMEL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 230 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Cuba has upgraded the Tropical Storm Watch for Pinar del Rio to a Tropical Storm Warning. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Yucatan Peninsula from Tulum to Rio Lagartos, including Cozumel * Pinar del Rio Cuba A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Isle of Youth Cuba A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests in Florida should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ten was located near latitude 21.1 North, longitude 86.4 West. The depression is drifting toward the southwest near 2 mph (4 km/h) and is likely to meander near the Yucatan Channel through early Monday. A faster motion toward the north or north-northeast is expected on Monday, bringing the system over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next few days. The depression is expected to become a tropical storm on Sunday and a hurricane by Tuesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).

Commanders finish 3-0 in the preseason with their win tonight. Hopefully that will turn into a good regular season

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/08/felix-bautista-placed-on-injured-list-with-some-degree-of-ucl-injury.html

Euro keeps 93L around in the same general area from Day 6 on... then slowly moves S/SSW by Day 9 into 10 Makes landfall in the Big Bend of FL around 108 with low to mid 990s SLP

18z GFS still gets some of 93L moisture into the region but it disappates

Loudoun cell looks interesting, looks like an outflow boundary attached to it Just got warned

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 657 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 950 PM EDT Thu Aug 24 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northeast Indiana Northern and Central Ohio Northwest Pennsylvania Lake Erie * Effective this Thursday night and Friday morning from 950 PM until 300 AM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 85 mph likely Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A fast-moving line of severe thunderstorms over southern Lower Michigan will track southeastward across the watch area tonight. Damaging wind gusts are the main concern, with a risk of significant wind damage at times. A tornado or two is also possible. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles north and south of a line from 10 miles north northwest of Fort Wayne IN to 25 miles north of Franklin PA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 655...WW 656... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 75 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 30035. ...Hart

but now its back to a regular warning Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 945 PM EDT Thu Aug 24 2023 MIC093-250215- /O.CON.KDTX.TO.W.0011.000000T0000Z-230825T0215Z/ Livingston MI- 945 PM EDT Thu Aug 24 2023 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1015 PM EDT FOR CENTRAL LIVINGSTON COUNTY... At 945 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located over Fowlerville, moving east at 40 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. This dangerous storm will be near... Howell and Oak Grove around 955 PM EDT. Brighton around 1010 PM EDT. Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Parkers Corners.