yoda

Guess we wait until tomorrow... another SLGT risk day as well

Pretty cool looking outflow boundary on Radarscope

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 339 PM EDT Thu Sep 7 2023 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Southeastern Loudoun County in northern Virginia... Northwestern Fairfax County in northern Virginia... North central Fauquier County in northern Virginia... Northwestern Prince William County in northern Virginia... * Until 430 PM EDT. * At 339 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Haymarket, or 7 miles southwest of South Riding, moving north at 25 mph. HAZARD...Ping pong ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... Leesburg, South Riding, Herndon, Broadlands, Lansdowne, Lowes Island, Brambleton, Dulles International Airport, Ashburn, Linton Hall, Sterling, Chantilly, Countryside, Haymarket, Arcola, Oatlands, Gainesville, Belmont, Catharpin, and Gleedsville. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. Prepare immediately for large hail and damaging winds. People outside should move immediately to shelter inside a strong building. Stay away from windows. && LAT...LON 3905 7735 3877 7756 3881 7772 3911 7766 TIME...MOT...LOC 1939Z 194DEG 21KT 3887 7763 HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...1.50 IN WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

Quarter size hail observed at the LWX FO

Numerous reports of trees down

@EastCoast NPZ looks like you got hit nicely

That cell west of MRB... woof Radarscope max hail size 3"

Watch up until 9pm

Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 108 PM EDT Thu Sep 7 2023 VAC069-WVC003-065-071730- /O.CON.KLWX.SV.W.0303.000000T0000Z-230907T1730Z/ Frederick VA-Morgan WV-Berkeley WV- 108 PM EDT Thu Sep 7 2023 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 130 PM EDT FOR NORTH CENTRAL FREDERICK COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN VIRGINIA...CENTRAL MORGAN AND NORTHERN BERKELEY COUNTIES IN THE PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA... At 108 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Greenwood, moving northeast at 25 mph. HAZARD...Golf ball size hail and 70 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Expect wind damage to trees and power lines. Hail is large enough to dent and damage vehicles. Some hail damage to roofs, siding, and windows is possible. Locations impacted include... Martinsburg, Greenwood, Berkeley, Hedgesville, Johnsons Mill, Cherry Run, Tomahawk, Glengary, Johnsontown, Omps, Shanghai, Spohrs Crossroads, Oakland, Spruce Pine Hollow, Stotlers Crossroads, Highland Ridge, Jones Springs, Valley High, Unger, and New Hope. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... This storm is producing large hail. SEEK SHELTER NOW inside a sturdy structure and stay away from windows. && LAT...LON 3968 7810 3963 7803 3960 7801 3960 7799 3952 7788 3935 7822 3946 7833 TIME...MOT...LOC 1708Z 227DEG 22KT 3950 7819 THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...1.75 IN WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX WIND GUST...70 MPH $$

That was a pretty impressive hail core a few scans ago in E WV

RTPLWX Max/Min Temperature and Precipitation Table for the Mid-Atlantic National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 811 PM EDT Wed Sep 6 2023 Values represent highs and lows since 1 AM LST (06 UTC), and precipitation over the last 24 hours (since 7 PM LST yesterday). .BR LWX 0906 ES DH19/TAIRZS/TAIRZI/PPDRZZ : : Max Min :ID Location Temp Temp Pcpn : : First-order and climate sites BWI : Balt-Wash Marshall : 100 / 73 / 0.00 CHO : Charlottesville AP : 99 / 71 / 0.00 DCA : Reagan National AP : 98 / 75 / 0.00 DMH : Baltimore Inner Hrb.: 99 / 81 / 0.00 HGR : Hagerstown Rgnl AP : 96 / 69 / 0.00 IAD : Dulles Intl Airport : 100 / 69 / 0.00 MRB : Eastern WV Rgnl AP : 95 / 63 / 0.00 NAK : Annapolis Naval Acad: 90 / 75 / 0.00 :

What is FourCastNet? Never heard of it before until you tweeted it above

Why does the LWX radar show a line of showers but Radarscope shows nothing at 750am?

@MN Transplant morning AFD from LWX mentioned dewpoint mixing I believe in the short term discussion part .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Well above average temperatures continue into this morning. Normal morning lows should be in the upper 50s to low 60s this time of year, depending on your exact location, and many areas are still around 70! More of the same is expected today as we saw on Sunday. High pressure to the south and a strong upper ridge will set the stage for a very hot air mass over the region. Winds out of the WNW could again result in significant warming in downslope flow, especially for areas up next to the ridges. Could see many spots make a run at 100 today, but most will see mid-upper 90s. In fact, some spots may even reach record highs today (see climate section below for more details). Humidity will again be manageable, through it will still feel plenty hot. Dew points in the 60s should keep us out of and advisory criteria, but it will certainly be close, and anyone outdoors today should still remember to keep hydrated and take plenty of breaks in the shade/air conditioning. Going into tonight, temperatures may even be a touch warmer overnight than we saw this morning. Some spots could see record warm overnight lows. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... The hottest days of the week look to be on Tuesday and Wednesday. The pattern remains similar, with the ridge aloft strengthening ever so slightly. Temperatures at 850mb warm a degree or so each day Tuesday and Wednesday when compared to Monday, with values anywhere between 20-24 deg C. This, paired with downsloping winds, should yield afternoon high temperatures in the upper 90s to low 100s. Maintaining thoughts on humidity, as the downsloping winds will crash the dew points (perhaps even more than currently forecast). Think we remain below advisory criteria once again on Tuesday, but Wednesday could come very close. Either way, that doesn`t take away the fact that it will be extremely hot during this time period, and you should be taking proper precautions to avoid heat-related illness. Overnight lows remain very warm both nights, with record warmth during the overnight possible once again.

76/67 at 3am

I believe that you have done well with this call

TOASTY!

Moving NW at 240... preparing to recurve at 972mb

989 at 216. 00z was 986 and 12z yesterday was 969

1004mb at 168 passing north of all the islands

Until it weakens at 144

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Heading out of the Labor Day holiday weekend, conditions remain seasonably hot with legitimate opportunities to break daily temperature records. An expansive ridge encompasses the entire eastern U.S. with little downstream movement as an upper low remains parked south of Nova Scotia. This particular upper low will contain the post-tropical remains of Idalia. Looking toward the middle to latter portions of next week, an upstream trough should eventually erode the persistent ridge across the northeastern U.S. This ultimately favors a pattern change and a return of shower and thunderstorm chances. For Tuesday and Wednesday, 850-mb temperatures are forecast to rise into the 22 to 24C range. Given deep mixing, dry adiabatic profiles within this layer would support highs well into the 90s, locally approaching 100 degrees. The 00Z GEFS and 18Z EPS ensemble probabilities show around a 50 percent chance at a triple digit reading somewhere between the Blue Ridge and I-95. Skies should generally remain devoid of clouds given the ridge. One wild card in this pattern is the humidity which will dictate how high heat indices become. For now, modest rises in dew points should hoist heat index values into the 97 to 102 degree range. While this would fall short of local Heat Advisory criteria, those outdoors should take the necessary precautions to mitigate any heat-related illnesses. This would include taking shade breaks, wearing light clothing, and staying hydrated with plenty of water. Of course, do not leave anyone, including pets, inside a locked vehicle.

Do not want - from this afternoons LWX AFD There continues to be some spread in how hot temperatures may get next week, with upper 90s to even triple digits not completely out of the question looking at some of the ensemble guidance (ECMWF/GEFS). For now, the general consensus is a warming trend but staying below hazards (Heat Advisory etc..) for now. We will continue to monitor the trends leading up to next week.

No thanks. I want more of today and tomorrow please

Yay another tropical cyclone that will be gone in 72 hours