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Hurricane Lee Discussion Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 12 2023 GOES-16 satellite and radar images from the NOAA Hurricane Hunter indicate that Lee is trying to consolidate into one large eyewall, but the eye remains obscured with fragments of the old eyewall structures. Peak 700-mb flight-level winds were about 110 kt, 0.5 km radar estimates were near 121 kt and surface SFMR estimates were about 90 kt, which could be under sampled with such a large radius of maximum winds. The initial wind speed is held at 100 kt as a compromise of the aircraft estimates. Lee is still moving slowly west-northwestward (300/5 kt), with mid-level ridging established to the north and east of the hurricane. This steering pattern is expected to change during the next couple of days as a deep-layer trough moves across the eastern United States and produces a weakness in this ridge. As a result, Lee is forecast to turn northward and gradually accelerate during the middle and latter parts of this week. The track guidance envelope shows little cross-track spread during the first 3 days of the forecast period, and this portion of the NHC forecast is fairly similar to the previous one. While the core of the hurricane is forecast to pass west of Bermuda, the large wind field of the storm is likely to bring wind impacts to the island on Thursday, prompting the Bermuda Weather Service to issue a Tropical Storm Watch. The latest NHC track was a compromise between the 6z GEFS and ECMWF ensembles in the days 4/5 time frame, as it is still too early to know if any leftward bend will occur as Lee approaches North America. No significant change in strength is expected in the near-term with Lee due to its current structure and large wind field. Going forward, the large hurricane appears likely to begin upwelling cooler waters along its path, and in a few days it will encounter the cool wake left behind by recent western Atlantic hurricanes. Thus, gradual weakening is forecast through midweek. Later, the aforementioned trough is expected to produce stronger deep-layer shear over Lee, and the hurricane is forecast to move over significantly cooler waters as it passes north of the Gulf Stream. As a result, more significant weakening is shown at days 4-5, along with completion of its extratropical transition. Despite the forecast weakening, it is important to note that the expanding wind field of Lee will produce impacts well away from the storm center. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Dangerous surf and life-threatening rip currents will affect portions of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and most of the U.S East Coast through much of the week. 2. There is an increasing risk of strong winds, rainfall, and high surf impacts to Bermuda later this week, and a Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the island. 3. It remains too soon to know what level of additional impacts Lee might have along the northeastern U.S. coast and Atlantic Canada late this week and this weekend. However, since wind and rainfall hazards will extend well away from the center as Lee grows in size, users should continue to monitor updates to Lee's forecast during the next several days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/1500Z 24.3N 65.9W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 13/0000Z 24.8N 66.6W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 13/1200Z 25.9N 67.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 14/0000Z 27.4N 67.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 14/1200Z 29.4N 68.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 60H 15/0000Z 31.6N 68.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 15/1200Z 34.3N 67.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 16/1200Z 40.7N 66.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 17/1200Z 45.3N 65.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Bann/Blake/Gallina

Hurricane Lee Advisory Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 12 2023 ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR BERMUDA... ...HAZARDOUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT BEACHES ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ALL WEEK... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.3N 65.9W ABOUT 555 MI...895 KM S OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...951 MB...28.09 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Bermuda Weather Service has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for Bermuda. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests in the northeastern United States and Atlantic Canada should monitor the progress of Lee. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service

Hurricane Lee Discussion Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 11 2023 Lee has been holding steady in strength this morning. The NOAA Hurricane Hunters have been investigating Lee and found that the minimum pressure was around 948 mb while a combination of the measured flight-level and SFMR winds support holding the initial intensity at 105 kt. The aircraft data have also shown a clear indication of concentric eyewalls, which will likely cause fluctuations, both up and down, in Lee's intensity over the next day or two. The major hurricane is moving slowly toward the northwest at about 7 kt. A continued slow motion between west-northwest and northwest is expected during the next couple of days as Lee continues to be steered by a mid-level high to its north-northeast. Around the middle of the week, the ridge is expected to shift eastward as a mid- to upper-level trough amplifies over the eastern U.S. This pattern change should cause Lee to turn northward with an increase in forward speed. The models have generally changed little this cycle, and only small changes were made to the previous NHC track forecast. Lee is likely to pass near, but to the west of Bermuda, late Thursday and Friday and be situated offshore of the mid-Atlantic states and New England by the end of the forecast period. As mentioned above, fluctuations in strength are likely in the short term due to eyewall replacement cycles, but there is an opportunity for some strengthening during that time since the system is expected to remain over very warm waters and in relatively low wind shear conditions. Beyond a couple of days, however, progressively cooler waters and a notable increase in shear should cause Lee to gradually weaken. Although the weakening is forecast later in the week, Lee is expected to significantly increase in size and hazards will extend well away from the center of the storm by the end of the forecast period. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Dangerous surf and life-threatening rip currents will affect portions of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and most of the U.S East Coast through much of the week. 2. Lee could bring strong winds, rainfall, and high surf impacts to Bermuda later this week. Interests there should monitor the latest forecasts. 3. It remains too soon to know what level of additional impacts Lee might have along the Northeast U.S. coast and Atlantic Canada late this week and this weekend, however, wind and rainfall hazards will likely extend well away from the center as Lee grows in size. Users should continue to monitor updates to the forecast of Lee during the next several days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/1500Z 23.5N 63.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 12/0000Z 23.9N 64.4W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 12/1200Z 24.4N 65.5W 115 KT 130 MPH 36H 13/0000Z 24.9N 66.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 48H 13/1200Z 25.7N 67.2W 100 KT 115 MPH 60H 14/0000Z 27.0N 67.7W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 14/1200Z 28.8N 68.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 15/1200Z 33.1N 67.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 16/1200Z 38.9N 67.1W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

BULLETIN Hurricane Lee Advisory Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 11 2023 ...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS INDICATE THAT LEE REMAINS A MAJOR HURRICANE... ...HAZARDOUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT BEACHES ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ALL WEEK... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.5N 63.5W ABOUT 365 MI...590 KM N OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS ABOUT 615 MI...985 KM S OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...28.00 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Lee.

Hurricane Lee Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 09 2023 While the geostationary satellite appearance of Lee has not changed appreciably since the prior advisory, data from a NOAA P-3 reconnaissance mission in the storm, in addition to earlier GPM and SSMIS microwave imagery, indicate that Lee is in the middle of an eyewall replacement cycle (ERC). The aircraft has been reporting both an inner and outer eyewall, with the outer eyewall gradually contracting in size. However, this outer eyewall continues to exhibit some asymmetry, consistent with modest vertical wind shear still affecting the storm. In addition, the aircraft has reported that the inner-core wind field is becoming weaker, but broader, with a more muted wind profile outside of the radius of maximum wind. This observation is also evident comparing TDR data between the morning and evening NOAA-P3 missions. The peak 700 mb flight level winds were down to 94 kt, with SFMR only in the 75-85 kt range. The initial intensity has been adjusted to a somewhat generous 90 kt for this advisory. Lee continues to move west-northwestward this evening at 300/9 kt. As discussed previously, the mid-level ridge axis currently north of Lee is soon expected to shift to its west-southwest, resulting in Lee slowing its forward motion, and perhaps making a slight westward bend over the next 24-36 hours. Afterwards, an eastward-moving mid-latitude trough is expected to erode this ridge and allow Lee to turn northward by the end of the forecast period. There remains a significant amount of spread in both the deterministic and ensemble guidance on when this turn occurs, and then how quickly Lee accelerates northward. For now the NHC track forecast remains closest to the consensus aids, which have slowed a bit from the prior cycle, and the latest track forecast is a bit slower but near the same trajectory as the prior advisory. While vertical wind shear over Lee appears to be gradual decreasing over the system, the ongoing ERC seems to be resulting in the wind field broadening versus allowing Lee to re-intensify so far. However, once this cycle is complete, reintensification is still anticipated, and the NHC intensity forecast still takes Lee back to a category 4 hurricane in 36-48 hours, in good agreement with the latest HAFS-A/B forecasts, which both explicitly show the ongoing ERC. However, Lee's growing wind field, in combination with its slowing forward motion, could make the hurricane susceptible to feeling the effects of its own cold wake, which the atmospheric-ocean coupled HAFS and HWRF models suggest could begin to occur beyond 36 hours. Thus, the latest NHC intensity forecast shows gradual weakening beginning by that time, with more pronounced weakening by the end of the forecast period as the hurricane traverses already cooled sea-surface temperatures from Franklin and Idalia last week along its forecast track. This intensity forecast is in good agreement with the simple consensus aids, but is a little lower than the HFIP corrected consensus early on. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Lee's core is expected to move well north of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico this weekend and early next week. 2. Dangerous surf and life-threatening rip currents are affecting portions of the northern Leeward Islands. These conditions are spreading westward and northward and will affect Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos, the Bahamas, and Bermuda during the next several days. 3. It remains too soon to know what level of impacts, if any, Lee might have along the U.S. East Coast, Atlantic Canada, or Bermuda late next week, especially since the hurricane is expected to slow down considerably over the southwestern Atlantic. Regardless, dangerous surf and rip currents are expected along most of the U.S. East Coast beginning tomorrow and continuing into next week as Lee grows in size. Users should continue to monitor updates to the forecast of Lee during the next several days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0300Z 21.0N 59.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 10/1200Z 21.6N 60.9W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 11/0000Z 22.4N 62.3W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 11/1200Z 23.0N 63.5W 120 KT 140 MPH 48H 12/0000Z 23.3N 64.7W 115 KT 130 MPH 60H 12/1200Z 23.6N 65.6W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 13/0000Z 24.0N 66.6W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 14/0000Z 25.6N 68.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 120H 15/0000Z 28.8N 68.3W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Papin

Cat 2 at 11pm... 105 mph BULLETIN Hurricane Lee Advisory Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 09 2023 ...LEE EXPECTED TO GROW IN SIZE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS... ...HAZARDOUS BEACH CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OVER THE UPCOMING WEEK... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.0N 59.9W ABOUT 285 MI...455 KM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES

LWX issuing rapid fire STWs the past 10 minutes

Hurricane Lee Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023 500 AM AST Sat Sep 09 2023 Lee seems to be recovering from the effects of the strong southwesterly shear. The central dense overcast has expanded, with periodic bursts of deep convection and increased lightning activity near the center. The most recent geostationary satellite infrared images even seem to be hinting a return of Lee's eye. Overnight, there were multiple reports from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft of mesovorticies orbiting the closed, elliptical eyewall. Due to safety considerations, the aircraft were unable, at times, to penetrate the eyewall and thus, we have no new in-situ information about the intensity or minimum central pressure. The initial intensity is held at a somewhat uncertain 100 kt and NOAA and Air Force Reserve missions are scheduled to investigate Lee later this morning. Confidence in the intensity forecast remains low. Global models suggest that Lee could be affected by strong-to-moderate southwesterly shear for at least the next day, though the European global model shows strong upper-level winds near the hurricane for the entire forecast period. The statistical and consensus intensity aids predict Lee could briefly weaken in the short-term, before restrengthening in about 12-24 hours. Only minor adjustments have been made to the latest NHC intensity forecast, which generally lies between the simple and corrected consensus intensity aids. Regardless of the details, it is likely that Lee will continue to be a dangerous hurricane through the entire forecast period. Lee is moving west-northwestward at 295/10 kt. The hurricane is situated to the south of a mid-level ridge that is predicted to build westward and southwestward during the next few days. This steering pattern is expected to keep Lee on a west-northwestward trajectory with a slower forward speed. By next Wednesday, the hurricane should gradually turn to the northwest and north-northwest in the flow between a trough over the eastern United States and the southwestern edge of the ridge. While the model guidance is in good agreement about the general synoptic setup, there remain differences in how far west Lee will move before it makes the turn. The latest NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous predictions and lies just to the south of the various track consensus aids. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Lee's core is expected to move well north of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico this weekend and early next week. 2. Dangerous surf and life-threatening rip currents are affecting portions of the northern Leeward Islands. These conditions will spread westward and northward, affecting Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos, the Bahamas, and Bermuda through the weekend. 3. It is way too soon to know what level of impacts, if any, Lee might have along the U.S. East Coast, Atlantic Canada, or Bermuda late next week, particularly since the hurricane is expected to slow down considerably over the southwestern Atlantic. Regardless, dangerous surf and rip currents are expected along most of the U.S. East Coast beginning Sunday and Monday. Continue to monitor updates to Lee's forecast during the next several days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0900Z 19.7N 57.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 09/1800Z 20.4N 58.7W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 10/0600Z 21.2N 60.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 10/1800Z 21.8N 61.4W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 11/0600Z 22.4N 62.6W 115 KT 130 MPH 60H 11/1800Z 22.8N 63.7W 120 KT 140 MPH 72H 12/0600Z 23.2N 64.8W 120 KT 140 MPH 96H 13/0600Z 23.9N 66.8W 115 KT 130 MPH 120H 14/0600Z 25.7N 67.8W 105 KT 120 MPH $$ Forecaster Bucci

Tons of reports of trees down in Albemarle County east of CHO

Another outflow boundary being thrown up near Culpeper from the storms down by CHO

Woah BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 639 PM EDT Fri Sep 8 2023 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Southeastern Loudoun County in northern Virginia... Northwestern Fairfax County in northern Virginia... Northwestern Prince William County in northern Virginia... * Until 715 PM EDT. * At 637 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Dulles International Airport, moving northeast at 10 mph. HAZARD...Two inch hail and 60 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Trained weather spotters. Numerous reports of significant wind driven hail, of at least ping pong ball size, is ongoing with storms across eastern Loudoun and Northeast Prince William Counties. Hail up to two inches is possible. IMPACT...Expect wind damage to trees and power lines. Hail is large enough to dent and damage vehicles. Some hail damage to roofs, siding, and windows is possible. * Locations impacted include... South Riding, Herndon, Broadlands, Lansdowne, Lowes Island, Brambleton, Dulles International Airport, Ashburn, Sterling, Chantilly, Great Falls, Countryside, Haymarket, Arcola, Gainesville, Belmont, Catharpin, Woolsey, and Sterling Park. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... This storm is producing large hail. SEEK SHELTER NOW inside a sturdy structure and stay away from windows! To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement agency. They will send your report to the National Weather Service office in Sterling Virginia. Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways. && LAT...LON 3907 7742 3906 7734 3905 7730 3879 7758 3881 7769 3888 7769 3899 7759 3908 7746 TIME...MOT...LOC 2237Z 226DEG 7KT 3897 7749 THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE HAIL THREAT...OBSERVED MAX HAIL SIZE...2.00 IN WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

Preliminary Local Storm Report...Corrected National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 624 PM EDT Fri Sep 08 2023 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0615 PM Tstm Wnd Gst 1 N Arcola 38.97N 77.53W 09/08/2023 M71 mph Loudoun VA Mesonet Wind gusts of up to 62 knots (71 MPH) were measured by a Tempest station (23370) between Arcola and Brambleton. && Corrected event...remarks Event Number LWX2302455

Wow, 15 minutes of hail up to half dollar size at the LWX FO that covered the ground Preliminary Local Storm Report National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 622 PM EDT Fri Sep 08 2023 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0600 PM Hail 3 NW Dulles Internation 38.98N 77.49W 09/08/2023 M1.25 inch Loudoun VA NWS Office Hail of up to half dollar size was observed for about 15 minutes from 6:00 to 6:15 PM at the NWS Office in Sterling. Hail covered the ground. && Event Number LWX2302457

Make that outflow boundary do something lol

Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 609 PM EDT Fri Sep 8 2023 VAC059-107-153-082245- /O.CON.KLWX.SV.W.0333.000000T0000Z-230908T2245Z/ Loudoun VA-Fairfax VA-Prince William VA- 609 PM EDT Fri Sep 8 2023 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 645 PM EDT FOR SOUTHEASTERN LOUDOUN...NORTHWESTERN FAIRFAX AND NORTHWESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM COUNTIES... At 608 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Brambleton, moving northeast at 10 mph. HAZARD...Golf ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Trained weather spotters. Numerous reports of wind driven hail have been reported across southern and eastern Loudoun County, mainly up to half dollar size hail. Hail up to golf ball size is possible. IMPACT...Expect wind damage to trees and power lines. Hail is large enough to dent and damage vehicles. Some hail damage to roofs, siding, and windows is possible. Locations impacted include... South Riding, Herndon, Broadlands, Lansdowne, Lowes Island, Brambleton, Dulles International Airport, Ashburn, Sterling, Chantilly, Countryside, Arcola, Belmont, and Sterling Park. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... This storm is producing large hail. SEEK SHELTER NOW inside a sturdy structure and stay away from windows. To report severe weather contact your nearest law enforcement agency. They will send your report to the National Weather Service office in Sterling Virginia. Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways. && LAT...LON 3905 7736 3899 7738 3892 7742 3887 7750 3887 7757 3888 7767 3890 7767 3894 7765 3903 7761 3908 7752 3906 7742 TIME...MOT...LOC 2208Z 205DEG 7KT 3898 7750 THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE HAIL THREAT...OBSERVED MAX HAIL SIZE...1.75 IN WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

Huh... Euro seems to be insinuating that Lee and Margot will be dancing at 216 Lee is already moving NE on its recurve but Margot is matching by moving NW towards Lee

Margot and Lee just a tad closer at 192 compared to last nights 216

Looking at the 00z EURO, I am beginning to wonder if Margot is closer to Lee, will that have any effect on the h5 level? If you compare last nights 00z run at 168 to tonights at 144... Margot is much closer to Lee and the h5 becomes different up top

Just to do the quick math... 170 to 180 kts is 195 to 205 mph

Hurricane Lee Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023 1100 PM AST Thu Sep 07 2023 The Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters have found that Lee has skyrocketed to category 5 strength. The aircraft measured peak 700-mb flight-level winds of 148 kt and trustworthy SFMR winds slightly over 140 kt, and dropsonde data shows that the minimum pressure has plummeted to 928 mb. Based on these data, the initial intensity is set at 140 kt, and Lee's maximum winds have increased by an incredible 70 kt over the past 24 hours. The hurricane has a clear 15 n mi-wide eye, with an infrared eye temperature as warm as 21 C surrounded by convective cloud tops as cold as -76 C. Additional strengthening appears likely, as Lee remains in a low-shear environment and over very warm waters near 30 degrees Celsius, and there are no signs of an imminent eyewall replacement. In fact, based on guidance from UW-CIMSS, the probability of a secondary eyewall formation during the next 24 hours is well below climatology. There is some chance that moderate deep-layer southwesterly shear could develop over the hurricane, but this could be offset by strong upper-level divergence and thus have little to no impact. To account for the recent rate of intensification, the NHC intensity forecast is slightly above the IVCN and HCCA consensus aids and shows a peak intensity of 155 kt in 12 hours. Amazingly, the 1800 UTC HAFS-A and -B runs show a peak intensity between 170-180 kt, but that's getting into rarefied air. The NHC forecast will be adjusted accordingly if those solutions begin looking like a more distinct possibility. Only very gradual weakening is shown after 12-24 hours, and it is likely that Lee's intensity will fluctuate for much of the forecast period. Lee is forecast to remain a dangerous category 4 or 5 hurricane for the next 5 days. For the next 5 days--through next Tuesday evening--Lee is expected to maintain a steady west-northwestward track, passing well to the north of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. The hurricane is currently moving at about 12 kt, but it is expected to slow down considerably through early next week as the steering ridge to its north builds southwestward, effectively blocking Lee's progress. The NHC track forecast remains of high confidence through day 5, and again, no significant changes were required from the previous forecast. Although there are some indications that Lee might begin a northward turn around the middle of next week, it is still way to soon to focus on specific model scenarios that far out into the future. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Lee has become a dangerous category 5 hurricane, and further strengthening is forecast overnight. Lee's core is expected to move well north of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico this weekend and early next week. 2. Dangerous surf and life-threatening rip currents are likely in the northern Leeward Islands beginning Friday. These conditions will spread westward and northward, affecting Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos, the Bahamas, and Bermuda through the weekend. 3. It is way too soon to know what level of impacts, if any, Lee might have along the U.S. East Coast, Atlantic Canada, or Bermuda late next week, particularly since the hurricane is expected to slow down considerably over the southwestern Atlantic. Regardless, dangerous surf and rip currents are expected along most of the U.S. East Coast beginning Sunday. Continue to monitor updates to Lee's forecast during the next several days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0300Z 17.3N 52.4W 140 KT 160 MPH 12H 08/1200Z 18.1N 54.0W 155 KT 180 MPH 24H 09/0000Z 19.1N 56.1W 150 KT 175 MPH 36H 09/1200Z 20.1N 58.0W 145 KT 165 MPH 48H 10/0000Z 20.9N 59.6W 140 KT 160 MPH 60H 10/1200Z 21.5N 60.9W 135 KT 155 MPH 72H 11/0000Z 22.1N 62.2W 130 KT 150 MPH 96H 12/0000Z 23.2N 64.7W 125 KT 145 MPH 120H 13/0000Z 24.1N 66.6W 115 KT 130 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg