yoda

Tiebreaker of highest wind gust?

Rain starts in DC just 00z SAT on 18z NAM Already over an inch of rain down by CHO by 09z Saturday

H/t @MattPetrulli

Updated afternoon discussion from LWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 233 PM EDT Thu Sep 21 2023 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will remain to the north across New England through early Friday. An area of low pressure will approach from the southeastern U.S. coast Friday into the upcoming weekend. The low pressure system will exit by late Sunday with high pressure building over the Mid-Atlantic early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... High pressure over New England will drift to just offshore of Nova Scotia while low pressure deepens offshore of the Southeast and heads for the Carolinas (possibly acquiring tropical/sub- tropical characteristics - refer to hurricanes.gov for details). This will result in an uptick in high and mid-level clouds, seasonable temperatures, and gradually increasing easterly breezes especially by late Friday afternoon. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... A rather blocky upper-level jet pattern will be evident through the weekend over North America, with a blocking area of high pressure over the Canadian Maritimes. This should result in deepening low pressure heading into the Carolinas Friday night. To the north of this low and between the high pressure to the north, easterly winds will increase substantially Friday night into Saturday. The strongest winds are expected closer to and over the Chesapeake Bay; in these areas, gusts could reach or exceed 50 mph. Further west to and including the Blue Ridge and Catoctin Mountains, 30 to 40 mph wind gusts will likely be more commonplace. Breezy conditions at slightly lower speeds are anticipated further west. The wind should persist for 12-18 hours late Friday night through Saturday night as the low creeps in from the south. Given the persistent winds and anticipated waves of rain, this may result in isolated wind damage (i.e. tree/branch/power line damage). These winds will also bring in tropical moisture and a threat for heavy rainfall (see the Hydrology section below). Rain is most likely in two waves: (1) with an initial moisture advection band late Friday night into Saturday morning, and (2) with the low itself Saturday afternoon and night. Lingering rain and precipitation from an area of low pressure will continue to impact the area as it dissipates overhead on Sunday. Uncertainty continues with the specific location and timing of the heaviest rainfall, but global model ensembles are in relatively good agreement regarding the dissipation of the low. However, deterministic model guidance continues to show variability from model to model and run to run. A more eastern track of the low would result in heaviest precipitation to be located mostly east of I-95 while a more western track would expand the area for heavy rainfall along and west of I-95. Either way, unsettled conditions continue throughout the day Sunday with breezy conditions expected. Wind gusts will be highest Sunday morning before gradually dissipating throughout the day.

Windy wording has entered the zones... wind gusts to 40 mph in DC Zone Forecast Product National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 134 PM EDT Thu Sep 21 2023 DCZ001-212100- District of Columbia- Including the city of Washington 134 PM EDT Thu Sep 21 2023 .THIS AFTERNOON...Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 70s. Northeast winds around 5 mph. .TONIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 50s. Northeast winds around 5 mph. .FRIDAY...Partly sunny in the morning, then becoming mostly cloudy. Highs in the mid 70s. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. .FRIDAY NIGHT...Cloudy. A chance of rain in the evening, then rain likely after midnight. Lows around 60. Northeast winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent. .SATURDAY...Rain, windy with highs in the mid 60s. North winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 40 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent. .SATURDAY NIGHT...Rain likely. Windy with lows in the upper 50s. Chance of rain 70 percent. .SUNDAY...Showers likely. Highs in the upper 60s. Chance of rain 60 percent.

BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Intermediate Advisory Number 1A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162023 200 PM EDT Thu Sep 21 2023 ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC COASTS BEGINNING ON FRIDAY... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.0N 75.9W ABOUT 355 MI...565 KM SE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 430 MI...690 KM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.89 INCHES

FWIW, 12z CMC still very wet

What kind? QPF I mentioned above

100 percent

12z GFS looks like a move west

Pretty high IMHO

FWIW, 12z NAM Nest is going to go just west of DC at the end of its run looks like with the SLP track

Both 12z NAM runs are very wet across the region... 2 to 4 inches with some isolated 5" on the NAM

ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162023 1100 AM EDT Thu Sep 21 2023 A broad non-tropical area of low pressure has formed well east of the east coast of Florida this morning. Although this system is forecast to remain non-tropical during the next 12-24 hours, the dynamical model guidance indicates that it will likely acquire tropical characteristics late Friday and early Saturday as it approaches the coast of North Carolina. Although it is unclear as to whether the cyclone detaches from a front that is forecast to extend northeastward from the center, the guidance suggests a tropical-cyclone like core and structure when it nears the coast. As a result, advisories are being initiated on Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen to issue Tropical Storm Warnings and Storm Surge Watches for portions of the coasts of North Carolina, Virginia and Maryland. Winds associated with the front farther north are being covered by non-tropical products issued by local National Weather Service offices and the Ocean Prediction Center. Additional tropical watches and warnings could be issued for other portions of the Chesapeake Bay later today. Since the low is still in its formative stage, the initial motion estimate is a highly uncertain 360/8 kt. The model guidance suggests that center reformations are likely to occur during the next day or so, but the overall motion of the system is expected to be a little east of due north. As the system interacts with a mid-latitude trough that it becomes embedded within, a bend toward the north-northwest is forecast. That motion should bring the center over eastern North Carolina within the warning area Saturday morning. The NHC track forecast follows a blend of the various global models that are in good agreement. The system is forecast to gradually strengthen during the next 24 hours. After that time, the guidance suggests it is likely to form a smaller inner core with additional strengthening expected until the center reaches the coast. The NHC intensity forecast follows the ECMWF and GFS models trends. Key Messages: 1. An area of low pressure is forecast to develop off the southeastern U.S. coast later today and will bring tropical-storm-force winds, storm surge, heavy rain, and high surf to large portions of the southeast and mid-Atlantic United States coast beginning Friday and continuing into the weekend. 2. There is the potential for life-threatening storm surge inundation from Surf City, North Carolina to Chincoteague, Virginia, the Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds, and the lower Chesapeake Bay. Residents in these areas should follow advice given by local officials. 3. Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the southeast and mid-Atlantic coasts within the Tropical Storm Warning area beginning on Friday and continuing into Saturday. 4. Heavy rainfall from this system could produce localized urban and small stream flooding impacts across the eastern mid-Atlantic states from North Carolina to New Jersey Friday through Sunday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/1500Z 28.7N 75.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 22/0000Z 30.0N 75.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 24H 22/1200Z 31.7N 75.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 36H 23/0000Z 33.2N 75.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 48H 23/1200Z 35.1N 76.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 60H 24/0000Z 37.3N 76.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 72H 24/1200Z 38.8N 76.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 25/1200Z 40.4N 71.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown

Warnings go up to the LWX/AKQ border on the waters

Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162023 1100 AM EDT Thu Sep 21 2023 ...LOW PRESSURE AREA EXPECTED TO BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE TO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC COASTS... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.7N 75.9W ABOUT 370 MI...595 KM SE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 450 MI...725 KM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.89 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from Cape Fear, North Carolina, northward to Fenwick Island, Delaware, including Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds, and the Chesapeake Bay south of Smith Point. A Storm Surge Watch has been issued from Surf City, North Carolina to Chincoteague, Virginia, and the for the Chesapeake Bay south of Smith Point, including Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cape Fear NC to Fenwick Island DE * Chesapeake Bay south of Smith Point * Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Surf City NC to Chincoteague VA * Chesapeake Bay south of Smith Point * Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

50kt tropical cyclone in 24 to 36 hours per NHC

Going to have to do some checking... and I know it's very unlikely, but when was the last time LWX issued tropical products aka HLS?

Lol UKIE... what a huge shift west 00z CMC and UKIE crush i95 corridor

Hurricane Lee Advisory Number 39 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023 1100 PM AST Thu Sep 14 2023 ...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF ATLANTIC CANADA... ...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS AFFECTING MUCH OF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.9N 67.6W ABOUT 170 MI...270 KM WNW OF BERMUDA ABOUT 590 MI...945 KM SSE OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB...28.26 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Canadian Hurricane Center has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for New Brunswick from the U.S./Canada border to Fort Lawrence, including Grand Manan Island, and a Tropical Storm Warning for the coast of Nova Scotia from Fort Lawrence to Point Tupper. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Stonington, Maine to the U.S./Canada border * New Brunswick from the U.S./Canada border to Point Lepreau, including Grand Manan Island * Nova Scotia from Digby to Medway Harbour A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda * Westport Massachusetts northward to the U.S./Canada border * Martha's Vineyard * Nantucket * New Brunswick from the U.S./Canada border to Fort Lawrence, including Grand Manan Island * Nova Scotia from Fort Lawrence to Point Tupper

Watches could be coming later today per NHC 8am update Hurricane Lee Intermediate Advisory Number 32A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023 800 AM AST Wed Sep 13 2023 ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON BERMUDA BEGINNING EARLY TOMORROW... ...RISK OF WIND, COASTAL FLOODING, AND RAIN IMPACTS INCREASING FOR PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND AND ATLANTIC CANADA... SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.0N 67.2W ABOUT 460 MI...740 KM SSW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...28.00 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36 hours. Interests in the northeastern United States and Atlantic Canada should monitor the progress of Lee. Watches may be required for a portion of these areas later today or tonight. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

Hurricane Lee Intermediate Advisory Number 32A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023 800 AM AST Wed Sep 13 2023 ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON BERMUDA BEGINNING EARLY TOMORROW... ...RISK OF WIND, COASTAL FLOODING, AND RAIN IMPACTS INCREASING FOR PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND AND ATLANTIC CANADA... SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.0N 67.2W ABOUT 460 MI...740 KM SSW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...28.00 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36 hours. Interests in the northeastern United States and Atlantic Canada should monitor the progress of Lee. Watches may be required for a portion of these areas later today or tonight. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Flash Flood Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1206 AM EDT Wed Sep 13 2023 ...FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR CITY OF BALTIMORE ... The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Flash Flood Warning for... Baltimore City in northern Maryland... * Until 315 AM EDT. * At 1206 AM EDT, Emergency Management reported numerous water rescues are ongoing in the City of Baltimore. Between 2.5 and 4.5 inches of rain have fallen. Additional rainfall amounts of 0.5 to 1 inch are possible in the warned area. Flash flooding is already occurring. This is a FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY for City of Baltimore . This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. SEEK HIGHER GROUND NOW! HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms producing flash flooding. SOURCE...Emergency management reported. IMPACT...This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. SEEK HIGHER GROUND NOW! Life threatening flash flooding of low water crossings, small creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses. * Some locations that will experience flash flooding include... Baltimore... This includes the following Flood Prone Roads... Smith Avenue at Jones Falls and Clipper Mill Road near the Falls Road Overpass. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Move to higher ground now! This is an extremely dangerous and life-threatening situation. Do not attempt to travel unless you are fleeing an area subject to flooding or under an evacuation order. Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the dangers of flooding. && LAT...LON 3924 7662 3928 7671 3937 7671 3937 7653 3927 7653 3926 7654 FLASH FLOOD...OBSERVED FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CATASTROPHIC