yoda

Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 310 AM EST Mon Dec 11 2023 DCZ001-MDZ008-011-013-014-016>018-504-506-508-VAZ050-051-053>057- 502-527-111200- District of Columbia-Cecil-Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges- Anne Arundel-Charles-St. Marys-Calvert- Central and Southeast Montgomery-Central and Southeast Howard- Southeast Harford-Orange-Culpeper-Fairfax- Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Stafford-Spotsylvania- King George-Southern Fauquier- Central and Southeast Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park- Including the cities of Washington, Elkton, Baltimore, Bowie, Suitland-Silver Hill, Clinton, College Park, Greenbelt, Laurel, Camp Springs, Glen Burnie, Annapolis, Severn, South Gate, Severna Park, Arnold, Odenton, St. Charles, Waldorf, Lexington Park, California, Chesapeake Beach, Huntingtown, Dunkirk, North Beach, Lusby, Prince Frederick, Bethesda, Rockville, Gaithersburg, Silver Spring, Columbia, Ellicott City, Aberdeen, Orange, Gordonsville, Culpeper, Reston, Herndon, Annandale, Centreville, Chantilly, McLean, Franconia, Arlington, Alexandria, Falls Church, Falmouth, Fredericksburg, Dahlgren, Turnbull, Dale City, Manassas, Woodbridge, Lake Ridge, and Montclair 310 AM EST Mon Dec 11 2023 ...WET SNOW ACCUMULATING EARLY THIS MORNING... Rain has changed over to snow along and west of Interstate 95 early this morning, and will transition to all snow east of Interstate 95 in the next 1 to 2 hours. Precipitation is expected to end from west to east between 4 AM and 7 AM. A slushy coating of snow is expected on grassy and elevated surfaces, with localized amounts around one inch possible. Even though road temperatures are above freezing, the moderate snow rates are leading to some accumulation on area roadways. Drivers should be alert for changing road conditions where it is snowing. Slow down and allow for extra travel time this morning. $$ Rodriguez

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Nashville TN 409 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2023 The National Weather Service in Nashville has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Central Davidson County in Middle Tennessee... East central Dickson County in Middle Tennessee... Central Cheatham County in Middle Tennessee... South central Robertson County in Middle Tennessee... * Until 445 PM CST. * At 409 PM CST, a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado was located near White Bluff, or 8 miles southwest of Ashland City, moving east at 40 mph. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...Damaging tornado. SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado. IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes, businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction is possible. * The tornado will be near... Ashland City around 415 PM CST. Joelton around 430 PM CST. Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Beaman Park, Whites Creek, and Bells Bend. This includes the following highways... Interstate 40 between mile markers 201 and 211. Interstate 65 between mile markers 85 and 97. Interstate 24 between mile markers 30 and 49. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... To repeat, a large, extremely dangerous and potentially deadly tornado is on the ground. To protect your life, TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. && LAT...LON 3638 8673 3634 8672 3633 8670 3632 8670 3632 8668 3617 8662 3608 8724 3621 8727 3644 8678 TIME...MOT...LOC 2209Z 249DEG 35KT 3619 8716 TORNADO...OBSERVED TORNADO DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN

18z NAM still looks nice to me

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Paducah KY 159 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2023 The National Weather Service in Paducah has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Southern Todd County in south central Kentucky... * Until 230 PM CST. * At 159 PM CST, a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado was located 4 miles west of Guthrie, or 8 miles northeast of Clarksville, moving northeast at 40 mph. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...Damaging tornado. SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado. IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes, businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction is possible. * The tornado will be near... Guthrie around 205 PM CST. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... To repeat, a large, extremely dangerous and potentially deadly tornado is on the ground. To protect your life, TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. && LAT...LON 3675 8706 3664 8706 3664 8731 3670 8732 3682 8706 3677 8705 TIME...MOT...LOC 1959Z 245DEG 36KT 3666 8725 TORNADO...OBSERVED TORNADO DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN

Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Paducah KY 158 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2023 KYC219-092015- /O.CON.KPAH.TO.W.0060.000000T0000Z-231209T2015Z/ Todd KY- 158 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2023 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 215 PM CST FOR SOUTHERN TODD COUNTY... At 158 PM CST, a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado was located just west of Guthrie, or 8 miles northeast of Clarksville, moving northeast at 45 mph. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...Damaging tornado. SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado. IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes, businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction is possible. The tornado will be near... Guthrie around 205 PM CST. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... To repeat, a large, extremely dangerous and potentially deadly tornado is on the ground. To protect your life, TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. && LAT...LON 3665 8710 3664 8710 3664 8734 3669 8733 3682 8706 TIME...MOT...LOC 1958Z 247DEG 39KT 3665 8725 TORNADO...OBSERVED TORNADO DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN

18z HRRR would suggest around 5 hours of snow in DC metro

Looks like DC metro changes over to snow around 07z MON on 18z HRRR

Excellent afternoon AFD from LWX about all the hazards (225pm issuance) .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... A potent upper-level trough with northern and southern stream energy will continue to push east from the Great Lakes and Tennessee River Valley Sunday. At the surface, a strong cold front will slowly approach from the west Sunday morning into Sunday afternoon before working east of the area early Monday morning. 12z guidance continues to illustrate a fairly progressive system with limited phasing between the northern and southern stream. Even with that said, a strong meridional component remains to the upper level trough axis with ample warm/moist advection ahead of the cold frontal boundary. 12z upper level guidance from the CAMS and global solutions even show a negative tilt to the trough as the low level jet strengthen overhead. The strong thermal gradient combined with ample moisture advection will lead to widespread heavy rain and gusty winds across the region. Thunderstorms are also a possibility as the region resides in the warm sector with some elevated instability (i.e MLCAPE values less than 150 j/kg) Sunday morning into Sunday evening. A line of heavier showers and perhaps a thunderstorm will also accompany the frontal passage Sunday afternoon/evening given the latest 12z CAM guidance. Given the strong winds aloft (0-6km shear 60-80kts), this has the potential to mix down leading to a locally damaging wind threat. One mitigating factor for the thunderstorm threat will be the lack of instability that is progged to be rooted within the boundary layer. Therefore, certainty for damaging wind gusts is low at this time (with the best chance for strong to damaging wind gusts across south-central MD and the central VA Piedmont). Any thunderstorm activity that we do see will enhance the heavy rainfall threat across the region given the anomalously high PWATS and given dynamic. Rainfall amounts will range between 1-2 inches west of I-81 with 2-3 inches further east. Much of this rain may fall within a 3 to 6 hour period Sunday afternoon into late Sunday evening. This will lead to instances of urban flooding where relatively low FFG guidance overlaps. For that reason, a Flood Watch has been hoisted for the Baltimore/Washington DC metros as well as portions of northern VA. Now for winter - this is a complex anafrontal system with multiple waves of low pressure progged to move along the front. The colder air will first move into the Allegheny front Sunday evening, and spread southeast through the area overnight Sunday. Given the anafrontal nature of the cold front, moderate precipitation is likely to persist behind the front before cooler & drier air works into the region. Guidance continues to bring in more cold air which does result in more snow across the region. The best chance for accumulating snow is in areas of higher terrain (generally above 1750`). Have issued a Winter Weather Advisory for portions of the Allegheny Front given the strong signal for advisory level snow on the backside of the system coupled with the potential for snow squalls and showers lingering into Monday morning. Model soundings have a favorable overlap in moisture and lift through the DGZ through mid-morning Monday. Now the second area of winter headline is the northern Virginia Blue Ridge zone. Have issued a Winter Storm Watch for this area given the overwhelming signal for several inches of snow. There is uncertainty with respect to how quickly the dry air moves in and snow ends, but given some of the more robust scenarios, felt a watch was prudent for this area. There is a non-zero chance for accumulating snow further east, even near the DC and Baltimore metros. If the precipitation rates on the cold side of the boundary can be heavy enough well into the overnight this would take place. However, the most likely scenario is for the boundary layer to remain above freezing while precipitation rates decrease as low-level drier air moves in toward morning. Will continue to monitor. The cold front will move off to the east Monday and a northwest flow will usher chilly conditions. There will be a snow showers to start along/west of the Allegheny Front (flurries may spill east) before drier air works its way into the area during the afternoon. The main story for Monday will be the blustery and gusty northwest winds due to low pressure rapidly intensifying to our northeast (system phases during this time). Frequent gusts around 30 to 45 mph are possible for most areas. Even stronger winds are possible over the ridges and an a Wind Advisory may be warranted. High pressure will build toward the area Monday night. Winds will gradually diminish, but it will be cold with lows in the 20s for most areas (teens in the mountains and portions of the Shenandoah Valley).

Um, I know it's the BR... but I wasn't expecting a WSWatch... URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 156 PM EST Sat Dec 9 2023 VAZ507-100300- /O.NEW.KLWX.WS.A.0002.231211T0000Z-231211T1200Z/ Northern Virginia Blue Ridge- 156 PM EST Sat Dec 9 2023 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations in excess of 5 inches are possible. Winds could gust as high as 45 mph. * WHERE...Northern Virginia Blue Ridge. * WHEN...From Sunday evening through Monday morning. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning commute. Gusty winds could bring down tree branches. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Rain will change to snow Sunday evening and continue through the overnight. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation. && $$ BELAK

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 156 PM EST Sat Dec 9 2023 MDZ001-WVZ501-505-100300- /O.NEW.KLWX.WW.Y.0024.231211T0000Z-231211T1500Z/ Garrett-Western Grant-Western Pendleton- 156 PM EST Sat Dec 9 2023 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM SUNDAY TO 10 AM EST MONDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches with localized amounts upwards of 5 inches on the higher ridges. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph. * WHERE...In Maryland, Garrett County. In West Virginia, Western Grant and Western Pendleton Counties. * WHEN...From 7 PM Sunday to 10 AM EST Monday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning commute. Gusty winds could bring down tree branches. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Rain will change to snow Sunday evening with temperatures rapidly falling below freezing. Snow showers will continue overnight into Monday morning. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. When venturing outside, watch your first few steps taken on steps, sidewalks, and driveways, which could be icy and slippery, increasing your risk of a fall and injury.

Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Memphis TN 1148 AM CST Sat Dec 9 2023 TNC053-079-131-183-091830- /O.CON.KMEG.TO.W.0076.000000T0000Z-231209T1830Z/ Weakley TN-Gibson TN-Obion TN-Henry TN- 1148 AM CST Sat Dec 9 2023 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1230 PM CST FOR WEAKLEY...NORTHEASTERN GIBSON...SOUTHEASTERN OBION AND WESTERN HENRY COUNTIES... At 1148 AM CST, a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado was located over Sharon, or 8 miles south of Martin, moving northeast at 50 mph. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...Damaging tornado. SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado. IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes, businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction is possible. Locations impacted include... Martin, Paris, McKenzie, Dresden, Dyer, Greenfield, Gleason, Kenton, Rutherford, Bradford, Sharon, Cottage Grove, Routon, Palmersville, Puryear, Henry, Sandhill, Jones Mill, Good Luck, and Crossland. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... To repeat, a large, extremely dangerous and potentially deadly tornado is on the ground. To protect your life, TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a storm shelter or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. && LAT...LON 3626 8816 3602 8898 3624 8908 3650 8844 3650 8838 TIME...MOT...LOC 1748Z 245DEG 45KT 3621 8884 TORNADO...OBSERVED TORNADO DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN

Tornado Watch up

So you're saying there's a chance

Are you absconding with it?

I work Sunday night into Monday morning... 9pm to 630am at Amazon. I guess I could take a break... to check on the weather outside... for the um, safety of my coworkers... yeah, that's it... cause we all have to drive home...

12z 3km NAM has that 50 mile wide 4-6 inch band from N to S again just west of i95 like it had at 00z FWIW

06z NAM is slower with the cold air compared to the 00z NAM... though also slower with the system? 00z NAM at 12z MON had very little precip... 06z NAM says its snowing Still ends up pretty nice across the region with a lot of 2-4 looking at Kuchera... i81 corridor again crushed 06z 3k NAM OTH... um, came up empty lets say across the region with literally zero snow outside the mountains... and even there its basically <1"

So the 00z EURO tonight decides not to follow the 00z GFS and 00z CMC Day 8-9 storm idea... but come up with a Day 9 into Day 10 big storm where h5 and the SLP join up in E NC

Wait, so you're saying that I have to get a signed document from the 00z 3km NAM to make it finally happen?

What is that 50 mile wide swath of 4 to 8 inches just west of i95 on the 3km NAM? Shows up on Kuchera and 10:1 PW maps

3km is even more loltastic

PW snow map is lol 10:1 map has 2-4 along i95... Kuchera 1-3

Heavy snow into i95 corridor at 57

18z GFS declines the 12z Euro idea

62 and ripping rain at 00z Monday lol per 18z GFS near DCA