yoda

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 PM CDT Thu Jul 19 2018 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHERN IL/IN...CENTRAL/WESTERN KY...MIDDLE/WESTERN TN...NORTHERN MS/AL... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms associated with large hail, wind damage and a tornado threat will be possible Friday afternoon and evening across parts of the MIssissippi, Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. ...Synopsis... An anomalously strong deep layer trough and associated surface cyclone are expected to move southeastward from the upper Midwest into portions of the lower Great Lakes on Friday. The surface pattern will be complicated by one or more convectively-induced outflow boundaries, with a synoptic-scale surface trough/cold front expected to progress eastward south of the surface low through the period. A stout EML will spread eastward from the southern Plains over rich low-level moisture, resulting in a volatile thermodynamic environment developing over portions of the MS/TN/OH River Valleys and the Midwest. ...MS/TN/OH River Valleys into the Midwest... A potentially significant severe thunderstorm episode is possible across portions of the MS/TN/OH Valleys and the Midwest on Friday, though considerable uncertainty remains regarding convective evolution through the period. One or more clusters of convection will likely be ongoing Friday morning, though the remnants of these clusters are expected to push east through the day, allowing for moderate-to-strong destabilization in their wake. The strongest focus for convection will be the surface trough moving through IL/IN/OH, though this area will be somewhat removed from the stronger shear and instability, especially with northward extent. Foci for convective initiation will be more subtle further south and west, but the environment will also be much more volatile, with strong instability (MLCAPE of 2500-4000 J/kg possible) and effective shear (45-60 kt) in place. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop during the afternoon, potentially along the trailing surface boundary and also evolving out any early day elevated convection. Initially discrete storm modes will favor large hail (potentially greater than 2 inches in diameter), along with damaging wind gusts and a tornado or two. With time, evolution into one or more upscale-growing clusters is expected into the evening. Any such clusters would be capable of producing damaging wind swaths as they propagate to the southeast. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 5% - Slight Wind: 30% - Enhanced Hail: 30% SIG - Enhanced ..Dean/Dial.. 07/19/2018

@nrgjeff @jaxjagman

LMK was going all in in morning disco it would appear

Then you will like how SPC went ENH: Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 AM CDT Thu Jul 19 2018 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms associated with large hail, wind damage and a tornado threat will be possible Friday afternoon and evening across parts of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. ...Ohio and Tennessee Valleys... An upper-level trough will move into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys on Friday as an unseasonably strong mid-level jet moves through the southwestern side of the system. At the surface, a low is forecast to move east-southeastward across northern Illinois during the day as a cold front advances eastward across the mid Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the front, a very moist airmass should be in place with surface dewpoints in the lower 70s F. This should enable a corridor of moderate to strong instability to develop ahead of the front by afternoon. As low-level convergence increases along the front, thunderstorms are forecast to form during the early to mid afternoon in the mid Mississippi Valley with the storms moving southeastward across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys during the late afternoon and early evening. Forecast soundings for Paducah, KY, Evansville, IN and Louisville, KY at 00Z on Saturday show MLCAPE values of 2500 to 3000 J/kg, 0-6 km shear of 40 to 50 kt and steep mid-level lapse rates. This environment should be favorable for supercells with large hail. Hailstones of greater than 2 inches will be possible with the most intense cells. As the low-level jet strengthens during the early evening, 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is forecast to reach the 200 to 250 m2/s2 range. This should be enough for a tornado threat with the more dominant supercells. Storm coverage is expected to increase markedly by early evening as an MCS organizes across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. In response, the wind-damage threat should gradually increase during the late afternoon and early evening as supercells or bowing line segments move southeastward across the instability corridor. At this time, the models are in good agreement concerning Friday's scenario. The environment will likely support a substantial severe threat across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys so this outlook includes an upgrade to enhanced risk. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 5% - Slight Wind: 30% - Enhanced Hail: 30% - Enhanced ..Broyles.. 07/19/2018

Through the first 15 days of July (and in fact, the 16th also), only a trace of rain was observed at Reagan National Airport. This is the only time on record, dating back to 1871, that no measurable rain fell in the first 15 days of July. The old low benchmark of 0.08" was set in 1900. Normal rainfall for the first 15 days of July is 1.86 inches, and back in 1905, the wettest first 15 days of July brought 7.05" of rain. https://www.weather.gov/lwx/dryjuly2018

Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 227 AM CDT WED JUL 4 2018 SDC021-045-049-089-107-129-040800- /O.CON.KABR.SV.W.0147.000000T0000Z-180704T0800Z/ Edmunds SD-Faulk SD-Campbell SD-Potter SD-McPherson SD-Walworth SD- 227 AM CDT WED JUL 4 2018 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 AM CDT FOR WESTERN EDMUNDS...WESTERN FAULK...CAMPBELL...EASTERN POTTER... WESTERN MCPHERSON AND EASTERN WALWORTH COUNTIES... At 226 AM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from near Strasburg to 7 miles north of Java to 6 miles northwest of Lebanon, moving northeast at 65 mph. These are very dangerous storms. HAZARD...90 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Trained weather spotters. IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be heavily damaged or destroyed. Homes and businesses will have substantial roof and window damage. Expect extensive tree damage and power outages. Locations impacted include... Eureka, Selby, Bowdle, Herreid, Hoven, Roscoe, Pollock, Hosmer, Java, Mound City, Lebanon, Seneca, Tolstoy, Onaka, Artas, Hillsview, Lake Hiddenwood Rec Area, Greenway and New Town Corner. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... This is an EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION with tornado like wind speeds expected. Mobile homes and high profile vehicles are especially susceptible to winds of this magnitude and may be overturned. For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. These storms have the potential to cause serious injury and significant property damage. && LAT...LON 4495 9932 4494 9977 4522 9981 4540 9996 4557 10016 4566 10033 4571 10031 4587 10039 4594 10049 4594 9931 TIME...MOT...LOC 0726Z 203DEG 56KT 4608 10015 4561 9986 4512 9989 HAIL...<.75IN WIND... 90MPH

Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 215 AM CDT WED JUL 4 2018 SDC021-031-129-040745- /O.CON.KABR.SV.W.0146.000000T0000Z-180704T0745Z/ Corson SD-Campbell SD-Walworth SD- 215 AM CDT WED JUL 4 2018 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 245 AM CDT/145 AM MDT/ FOR NORTHEASTERN CORSON...CENTRAL CAMPBELL AND NORTHWESTERN WALWORTH COUNTIES... At 213 AM CDT/113 AM MDT/, a severe thunderstorm was located near Kenel, or 18 miles north of Mobridge, moving northeast at 60 mph. This is a very dangerous storm. HAZARD...90 mph wind gusts and half dollar size hail. SOURCE...Trained weather spotters. IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be heavily damaged or destroyed. Homes and businesses will have substantial roof and window damage. Expect extensive tree damage and power outages. Locations impacted include... Herreid, Pollock, Mound City, Artas and Kenel. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... This is an EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION. This storm is producing widespread wind damage across north central South Dakota. SEEK SHELTER NOW inside a sturdy structure and stay away from windows. Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways. && LAT...LON 4558 10026 4578 10068 4595 10057 4594 9972 TIME...MOT...LOC 0713Z 217DEG 50KT 4580 10034 HAIL...1.25IN WIND...90MPH

Yikes... STW from Rapid City SD states hail to ping pong ball size and wind gusts to 90mph BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Rapid City SD 1048 PM MDT TUE JUL 3 2018 The National Weather Service in Rapid City has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Haakon County in west central South Dakota... Southern Ziebach County in west central South Dakota... East central Meade County in west central South Dakota... Northeastern Pennington County in west central South Dakota... * Until midnight MDT * At 1047 PM MDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from 6 miles southwest of Plainview to 8 miles northeast of Creighton to 8 miles north of Wall, moving east at 55 mph. These are very dangerous storms. HAZARD...90 mph wind gusts and ping pong ball size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be heavily damaged or destroyed. Homes and businesses will have substantial roof and window damage. Expect extensive tree damage and power outages. * Locations impacted include... Cherry Creek, Milesville, Grindstone, Creighton, Bridger, Kirley, Howes, Ottumwa, Billsburg, Takini School and Grindstone Butte. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... This is an EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION with tornado like wind speeds expected. Mobile homes and high profile vehicles are especially susceptible to winds of this magnitude and may be overturned. For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. These storms have the potential to cause serious injury and significant property damage. && LAT...LON 4407 10222 4432 10221 4456 10232 4484 10114 4476 10113 4469 10113 4469 10116 4417 10116 TIME...MOT...LOC 0447Z 253DEG 48KT 4454 10228 4433 10207 4411 10220 TORNADO...POSSIBLE HAIL...1.50IN WIND...90MPH

SPC 0600 OTLK goes ENH... says uncertainty re MCS precludes MOD risk for now

New Day 1 has enhanced risk... 30 percent wind

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Flash Flood Warning National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1012 AM CDT WED JUN 20 2018 ...FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR Southeastern Hidalgo and Northwestern Cameron Counties... The National Weather Service in Brownsville has extended the * Flash Flood Warning for... Southeastern Hidalgo County in Deep South Texas... Northwestern Cameron County in Deep South Texas... * Until 130 PM CDT. * At 1008 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy rain across the warned area. Flash flooding is already occurring. Doppler radar and local observations have measured accumulated rainfall of up to 15 inches in the warned area. This is a FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY for Southeastern Hidalgo and Northwestern Cameron Counties. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. SEEK HIGHER GROUND NOW! * Some locations that will experience flooding include... Harlingen, Weslaco, San Benito, Mercedes, La Feria, Progreso, Edcouch, Santa Rosa, Rio Hondo and La Villa.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Flash Flood Warning National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1045 AM CDT WED JUN 20 2018 ...FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR SOUTHEAST HIDALGO COUNTY... The National Weather Service in Brownsville has extended the * Flash Flood Warning for... Southeastern Hidalgo County in Deep South Texas... * Until 215 PM CDT. * At 1037 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain from thunderstorms has fallen across the warning area. The radar estimates 4 to 9 inches of rain has fallen across the warning area. Flash flooding is already occurring. Hidalgo County Emergency Management reported multiple vehicles submerged under water in the warning area earlier this morning and most of the frontage roads along I-2 remain flooded. This is a FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY for southeast Hidalgo county. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. SEEK HIGHER GROUND NOW! * Some locations that will experience flooding include... Edinburg, Mission, Pharr, San Juan, Alamo, Donna, Hidalgo, Elsa, Palmhurst and North McAllen.

Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Bismarck ND Issued by National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 1240 PM CDT Thu Jun 14 2018 NDZ001>005-009>013-151745- Divide-Burke-Renville-Bottineau-Rolette-Williams-Mountrail-Ward- McHenry-Pierce- 1240 PM CDT Thu Jun 14 2018 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central North Dakota and northwest North Dakota. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight Severe thunderstorms are forecast across western and central North Dakota this evening through tonight. Across the north, very large hail, damaging wind, and locally heavy rain will be the main storm threats. A tornado or two is likely and significant tornadoes are possible.

Small area of MOD risk in extreme N ND today per 1630 SPC OTLK... 45% hatched hail and 10% hatch TOR

Surprised no posts about the severe weather threat today... MOD risk in NE... 45/45 in the hail and wind probs... 10% TOR probs in ND

Confirmed TOR in SE Dunn County in ND just SW of Marshall

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Norman OK 1156 PM CDT WED MAY 30 2018 The National Weather Service in Norman has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Kingfisher County in central Oklahoma... Eastern Woods County in northwestern Oklahoma... Northeastern Roger Mills County in western Oklahoma... Alfalfa County in northwestern Oklahoma... Custer County in western Oklahoma... Blaine County in northwestern Oklahoma... Grant County in northern Oklahoma... Northwestern Logan County in central Oklahoma... Dewey County in northwestern Oklahoma... Northwestern Canadian County in central Oklahoma... Southeastern Woodward County in northwestern Oklahoma... Northwestern Kay County in northern Oklahoma... Southern Ellis County in northwestern Oklahoma... Garfield County in northern Oklahoma... Major County in northwestern Oklahoma... * Until 100 AM CDT * At 1155 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from 5 miles northwest of Helena to 4 miles south of Fairview to 7 miles west of Putnam to 5 miles north of Roll, moving east at 45 mph. These are very dangerous storms. HAZARD...80 mph wind gusts and two inch hail. The strongest wind is moving toward Fairview and Helena. The largest hail is moving toward Leedy and Camargo. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be heavily damaged. Expect considerable damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles. Extensive tree damage and power outages are likely. * Locations impacted include... Enid, Watonga, Alva, Kingfisher, Fairview, Cherokee, Medford, Arnett, Taloga, Hennessey, Helena, Waukomis, Okeene, Thomas, Waynoka, Seiling, Pond Creek, Garber, Arapaho and Canton.

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK 1122 PM CDT WED MAY 30 2018 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... NORTHWESTERN KINGFISHER COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... ELLIS COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA... SOUTHEASTERN WOODS COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA... NORTHEASTERN ROGER MILLS COUNTY IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA... SOUTHERN ALFALFA COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA... NORTHERN CUSTER COUNTY IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA... NORTHERN BLAINE COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA... DEWEY COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA... SOUTHERN WOODWARD COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA... MAJOR COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA... * UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT * AT 1121 PM CDT, SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR WAYNOKA TO 4 MILES NORTH OF CHESTER TO 4 MILES NORTHWEST OF MOOREWOOD, MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH. THESE ARE VERY DANGEROUS STORMS. HAZARD...90 MPH WIND GUSTS AND TENNIS BALL SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. IMPACT...YOU ARE IN A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. FLYING DEBRIS MAY BE DEADLY TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE HEAVILY DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. HOMES AND BUSINESSES WILL HAVE SUBSTANTIAL ROOF AND WINDOW DAMAGE. EXPECT EXTENSIVE TREE DAMAGE AND POWER OUTAGES. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... FAIRVIEW, SHATTUCK, ARNETT, TALOGA, HELENA, OKEENE, THOMAS, WAYNOKA, SEILING, VICI, CANTON, RINGWOOD, GAGE, LEEDEY, CUSTER CITY, CARMEN, CLEO SPRINGS, LONGDALE, GOLTRY AND AMES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A BUILDING. THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION WITH TORNADO LIKE WIND SPEEDS EXPECTED. MOBILE HOMES AND HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES ARE ESPECIALLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO WINDS OF THIS MAGNITUDE AND MAY BE OVERTURNED. FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A BUILDING. THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE SERIOUS INJURY AND SIGNIFICANT PROPERTY DAMAGE.

Its nearly midnight... and this tornadic storm is producing baseball sized hail Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Norman OK 1140 PM CDT WED MAY 30 2018 OKC151-310500- /O.CON.KOUN.TO.W.0024.000000T0000Z-180531T0500Z/ Woods OK- 1140 PM CDT WED MAY 30 2018 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT FOR EAST CENTRAL WOODS COUNTY... At 1140 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located 6 miles southwest of Dacoma, moving east at 40 mph. HAZARD...Tornado and baseball size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. Locations impacted include... Dacoma, Avard and Hopeton.

So yeah... that STW from OUN... 90mph winds and tennis ball sized hail... um, I'd be hiding in the basement

12/6/2 June 1/0/0 July 2/1/0 August 3/2/1 September 5/2/1 October 1/1/0 November 0/0/0

Looks like it... New York and Mt. HOLLY NWS offices sent out statements about it between 845 and 915pm

New York State Mesonet Site at Beacon reported wind gust of 78mph at 420pm

evere Weather Statement National Weather Service Binghamton NY 248 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2018 NYC025-105-151915- /O.CON.KBGM.SV.W.0016.000000T0000Z-180515T1915Z/ Delaware NY-Sullivan NY- 248 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2018 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 315 PM EDT FOR SOUTH CENTRAL DELAWARE AND NORTHERN SULLIVAN COUNTIES... At 247 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Livingston Manor, or near Liberty, moving east at 45 mph. This is a very dangerous storm. HAZARD...80 mph wind gusts and tennis ball size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be heavily damaged. Expect considerable damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles. Extensive tree damage and power outages are likely. Locations impacted include... Rockland, Liberty, Neversink, White Sulphur Springs, Parksville, Hazel, Livingston Manor, Grahamsville, Willowemoc and Roscoe.

Baseball sized hail REPORTED along Rte 9 in Dutchess County NY