yoda

Euro barely offshore near ILM at 66... heading Southish at 78

Florence finally makes landfall at 102 near Georgetown, SC... but at 979mb and just parallels the SC coastline as it heads more SW through 111 as it heads to visit CHS

Still no landfall through 84 for Florence... but it is weakening... 969mb

Florence stalling SE of ILM at 60

NHC not buying the stall and SW movement in their 5pm map

BULLETIN Hurricane Florence Advisory Number 50 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018 500 PM AST Tue Sep 11 2018 ...DANGEROUS FLORENCE EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.5N 67.1W ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM SSW OF BERMUDA ABOUT 785 MI...1260 KM ESE OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB...27.91 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Storm Surge Warning has been issued from South Santee River, South Carolina, to Duck, North Carolina, and the Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds, including the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers. A Hurricane Warning has been issued from South Santee River, South Carolina, to Duck, North Carolina, and the Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from north of the North Carolina/Virginia border to Cape Charles Light, Virginia, and for the Chesapeake Bay south of New Point Comfort. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * South Santee River South Carolina to Duck North Carolina * Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds, including the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Edisto Beach South Carolina to South Santee River South Carolina * North of Duck North Carolina to the North Carolina/Virginia border A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * South Santee River South Carolina to Duck North Carolina * Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Edisto Beach South Carolina to South Santee River South Carolina * North of Duck North Carolina to the North Carolina/Virginia border A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of the North Carolina/Virginia border to Cape Charles Light Virginia * Chesapeake Bay south of New Point Comfort Interests elsewhere in the southeastern and mid-Atlantic states should monitor the progress of Florence. Additional watches and warnings may be required tonight or Wednesday.

Florence stays in S NC through 108 on 12z GFS

12z GGEM says nah, going to make landfall near OBX and the head NW into the Mid-Atlantic

Barely moves N at 90... its meandering

Still in SE NC at 84 and barely moving

Florence meandering around ILM at 72

Hurricane Florence Discussion Number 49 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 11 2018 Data from satellites and an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft mission indicate that Florence has completed an overnight eyewall replacement cycle (ERC). The recon data indicate that the eye has now expanded to a diameter of 30-32 n mi, and this was confirmed by an 1103Z SSMI/S microwave satellite image. The aircraft provided various intensity estimates with a peak SFMR surface wind of 113 kt noted in the northwest quadrant, a peak 700-mb flight-level wind of 143 kt in the northeast quadrant, and a central pressure of 950 mb. The 143-kt flight-level wind would normally correlate to an equivalent surface wind of about 129 kt. However, coincident SFMR surface winds were only 108 kt, indicating that the weak convection that region of the hurricane was not vigorous enough to bring down the strongest winds to the surface. The 950-mb central pressures corespondents to about 113 kt. Based on a blend of all these data, the initial intensity has been set to 115 kt. The initial motion estimate is now 295/14 kt based on the recent recon fix data. The broken record continues -- there is no significant to the previous track forecast or reasoning. Although the global and regional models continue to make minor shifts northward and southward, the consensus models have changed little. GOES-16 high-resolution water vapor imagery indicates that the amplifying large-scale flow pattern across CONUS is inducing a downstream ridge over the western Atlantic, with a high pressure cell centered northwest of Bermuda. This blocking ridge pattern is expected to keep Florence moving west-northwestward to northwest at around 15 kt for the next 48 hours or so. However, embedded within the large-scale flow is a weak shortwave trough over the central and southern Plains that is expected to eject out northeastward and weaken the ridging across the mid-Atlantic and southeastern U.S., causing Florence to slow down significantly in 72 hours as the powerful hurricane approaches the Carolinas. On days 4 and 5, an even slower motion or drift to the west and northwest is forecast, which will exacerbate the heavy rainfall threat. The new NHC forecast track is just an update of the previous one, and basically lies the middle of the guidance envelope between the consensus models TVCA to the north and HCCA and FSSE to the south. Water vapor imagery indicates that Florence has finally developed the much anticipated dual outflow pattern, with outflow jets noted in the northwestern and eastern quadrants. The latter outflow jet is flowing into an upper-level low, which is acting as an impressive mass sink near 25N/49W. These two outflow channels are producing significant deformation stretching across Florence's inner-core, which should aid in the re-strengthening process. Now that the eye has become stable with a diameter of about 30 n mi and since Florence is expected to remain in a low-shear environment of around 5 kt and over above-average SSTs of 29.0-29.5 deg C, slow but steady strengthening is expected for the next 24-36 hours. By 48 h and beyond, Florence's slow forward speed, coupled with the large eye and relatively shallow depth of the warm water should induce some upwelling beneath the cyclone that will initiate a slow weakening trend. By 72 hours the vertical wind shear is expected to increase to near 20 kt from the southwest, which will cause more significant weakening to occur. However, given the large overall wind field of Florence along with the large eye, only gradual weakening is expected. Once Florence moves inland, the slow forward speed of 3-5 kt will result in rapid spin down and weakening of the wind field. The new official intensity forecast is above of all of the intensity guidance based on the aforementioned very favorable synoptic outflow pattern, and to maintain continuity with the previous forecast. Key Messages: 1. A life-threatening storm surge is likely along portions of the coastlines of South Carolina, North Carolina, and Virginia, and a Storm Surge Watch is in effect for a portion of this area. All interests from South Carolina into the mid-Atlantic region should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place and follow any advice given by local officials. 2. Life-threatening, catastrophic flash flooding and significant river flooding is possible over portions of the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic states from late this week into early next week, as Florence is expected to slow down as it approaches the coast and moves inland. 3. Damaging hurricane-force winds are likely along portions of the coasts of South Carolina and North Carolina, and a Hurricane Watch is in effect for a part of this area. Damaging winds could also spread well inland into portions of the Carolinas and Virginia. 4. Large swells affecting Bermuda and portions of the U.S. East Coast will continue this week, resulting in life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/1500Z 26.7N 65.3W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 12/0000Z 27.7N 67.6W 120 KT 140 MPH 24H 12/1200Z 29.4N 70.6W 130 KT 150 MPH 36H 13/0000Z 31.1N 73.1W 130 KT 150 MPH 48H 13/1200Z 32.6N 75.2W 120 KT 140 MPH 72H 14/1200Z 34.2N 77.1W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 15/1200Z 35.0N 78.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 120H 16/1200Z 35.5N 79.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Stewart

BULLETIN Hurricane Florence Advisory Number 49 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 11 2018 ...FLORENCE EXPECTED TO RESTRENGTHEN LATER TODAY... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTS OF NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.7N 65.3W ABOUT 390 MI...625 KM S OF BERMUDA ABOUT 905 MI...1455 KM ESE OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.06 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Edisto Beach South Carolina to the North Carolina-Virginia border * Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds, including the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Edisto Beach South Carolina to the North Carolina-Virginia border * Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds Interests elsewhere in the southeastern and mid-Atlantic states should monitor the progress of Florence. Additional watches may be required later today. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Florence was located near latitude 26.7 North, longitude 65.3 West. Florence is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A west- northwestward to northwestward motion with a slight increase in forward speed are expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Florence will move over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean between Bermuda and the Bahamas through Wednesday, and approach the coast of North Carolina or South Carolina in the hurricane watch area Thursday and Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. Florence is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Florence is expected to begin re- strengthening later today and continue a slow strengthening trend for the next day or so. While some weakening is expected on Thursday, Florence is expected to be an extremely dangerous major hurricane through landfall. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 950 mb (28.06 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Edisto Beach to Murrells Inlet...2-4 ft Murrells Inlet to Cape Fear...4-6 ft Cape Fear to Cape Lookout including The Neuse and Pamlico River...6-12 ft Cape Lookout to Ocracoke Inlet...5-8 ft Ocracoke Inlet to North Carolina/Virginia Border...3-5 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Florence is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 15 to 20 inches with isolated maximum amounts to 30 inches near the storm's track over portions of the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic States from late this week into early next week. This rainfall could produce catastrophic flash flooding and significant river flooding. WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area by late Thursday or Thursday night, with tropical storm conditions possible by Thursday morning. SURF: Swells generated by Florence are affecting Bermuda and portions of the U.S. East Coast. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart

Uh no, GGEM stalls and then heads inland just SW of OBX

NHC now has Florence making landfall between ILM and OBX on its 11pm track that it shifted slightly to the east per the 11pm NHC disco

Hurricane Florence Discussion Number 47 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 10 2018 The rapid intensification of Florence ended just after the last advisory, with the central pressure falling to near 939 mb. Since that time, the eyewall convection has become a bit ragged and the latest central pressure from the Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is near 944 mb. The initial intensity will remain a possibly generous 120 kt for this advisory based on the aircraft winds. Microwave imagery suggests that Florence may be starting an eyewall replacement cycle. However, the winds from the Hurricane Hunter did not clearly indicate the presence of an outer eyewall. Florence should remain in a light shear environment and over sea surface temperatures near 29C for at least the next 48 h. Thus, there is little other than eyewall replacement cycles to keep the hurricane from intensifying further as indicated by all of the intensity guidance. The new intensity forecast calls for continued strengthening to near category 5 strength, although at a slower rate than what occurred during the last 30 h. Florence is expected to encounter southwesterly shear near the 72 h point, which could cause slight weakening before landfall. However, there remains high confidence that Florence will be a large and extremely dangerous hurricane, regardless of its exact intensity. The initial motion is 290/11. A building mid-level ridge over the northwestern Atlantic is expected to steer Florence west-northwestward to northwestward with an increase in forward speed during the next 48 h. After that time, a marked decrease in forward speed is likely as another ridge builds over the Great Lakes to the north of Florence. The track guidance continues to show some spread between the ECMWF on the left side of the envelope and the GFS on the right side. Overall, though, the guidance has again shifted a little to the right, and the 72-96 h points are nudged just a little to the right from the previous forecast. It is important not to focus on the exact forecast track as average NHC errors at days 3, 4, and 5 are about 100, 140 and 180 n mi, respectively, and dangerous hazards will extend well away from the center. The NOAA G-IV jet will continue to conduct synoptic surveillance missions every 12 h through at least Wednesday. In addition, special 0600 UTC and 1800 UTC radiosonde launches have been expanded to additional upper-air stations across the U.S. to collect extra data for the numerical models. The next Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter mission into Florence is scheduled for near 12Z. Key Messages: 1. A life-threatening storm surge is likely along portions of the coastlines of South Carolina, North Carolina, and Virginia, and a Storm Surge Watch will likely be issued for some of these areas by Tuesday morning. All interests from South Carolina into the mid- Atlantic region should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place and follow any advice given by local officials. 2. Life-threatening freshwater flooding is likely from a prolonged and exceptionally heavy rainfall event, which may extend inland over the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic for hundreds of miles as Florence is expected to slow down as it approaches the coast and moves inland. 3. Damaging hurricane-force winds are likely along portions of the coasts of South Carolina and North Carolina, and a Hurricane Watch will likely be issued by Tuesday morning. Damaging winds could also spread well inland into portions of the Carolinas and Virginia. 4. Large swells affecting Bermuda and portions of the U.S. East Coast will continue this week, resulting in life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0300Z 25.9N 62.4W 120 KT 140 MPH 12H 11/1200Z 26.5N 64.5W 125 KT 145 MPH 24H 12/0000Z 27.9N 67.5W 130 KT 150 MPH 36H 12/1200Z 29.6N 70.4W 135 KT 155 MPH 48H 13/0000Z 31.3N 73.2W 130 KT 150 MPH 72H 14/0000Z 34.0N 76.5W 120 KT 140 MPH 96H 15/0000Z 35.5N 78.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 120H 16/0000Z 36.5N 79.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Beven

BULLETIN Hurricane Florence Advisory Number 47 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 10 2018 ...FLORENCE CHANGES LITTLE IN STRENGTH DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS... ...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WATCHES LIKELY TO BE ISSUED ON TUESDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.9N 62.4W ABOUT 465 MI...750 KM SSE OF BERMUDA ABOUT 1085 MI...1745 KM ESE OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...944 MB...27.88 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the southeastern and mid-Atlantic states should monitor the progress of Florence. Storm Surge and Hurricane watches are likely be issued for portions of these areas on Tuesday. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Florence was located near latitude 25.9 North, longitude 62.4 West. Florence is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A west- northwestward to northwestward motion and an increase in forward speed are expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Florence will move over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean between Bermuda and the Bahamas Tuesday and Wednesday, and approach the coast of North Carolina or South Carolina on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher gusts. Florence is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some strengthening is expected during the next 36 hours, and Florence is expected to be an extremely dangerous major hurricane through Thursday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km). The latest minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 944 mb (27.88 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Florence are affecting Bermuda and portions of the U.S. East Coast. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven

Tropical Storm Lane Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142018 800 AM PDT Wed Aug 15 2018 The latest satellite imagery shows that the cyclone continues to become better organized with a growing central dense overcast along with ample banding features. Dvorak estimates range from 30 to 40 kt, and with the increased organization since the last advisory, the initial wind speed is set to 35 kt. Further intensification is likely over the next few days as Lane encounters a conducive large-scale environment consisting of low shear and fairly warm waters. Rapid strengthening is a distinct possibility after the cyclone forms an inner core, which could take a day or so given that there is still some drier air in the eastern semicircle. The DTOPS rapid intensification index indicates a high probability of significant strengthening over the next 3 days, with over a 70 percent chance of a 65-kt increase during that time. Given that some of the guidance (FSSE and HMON) are even higher than that, this seems like a reasonable forecast and is indicated below. The new NHC forecast is raised from the last advisory, and is close to a blend of the previous forecast and the corrected-consensus guidance. Continuity prevents a higher forecast, but Lane seems destined to eventually become a category-4 hurricane like Hector. The storm continues to move just south of due west at about 12 kt. The subtropical ridge to the north of Lane is forecast to weaken slightly over the next few days, which will likely steer the cyclone to the west or west-northwest throughout the period. There is very little spread in the guidance, with the most notable change since the last advisory being a small shift to the southwest. The latest official track forecast is adjusted in that direction, and is not too far from the latest model consensus. Given the tightly packed guidance, this appears to be a high-confidence forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/1500Z 10.7N 123.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 16/0000Z 10.6N 125.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 16/1200Z 10.7N 127.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 17/0000Z 11.0N 130.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 17/1200Z 11.5N 132.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 18/1200Z 12.6N 137.6W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 19/1200Z 13.9N 142.2W 105 KT 120 MPH 120H 20/1200Z 15.0N 146.5W 105 KT 120 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake

BULLETIN Tropical Storm Lane Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142018 800 AM PDT Wed Aug 15 2018 ...TROPICAL STORM LANE FORMS, FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...10.7N 123.6W ABOUT 1235 MI...1990 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lane was located near latitude 10.7 North, longitude 123.6 West. Lane is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion over the open Pacific Ocean is expected to continue for the next couple of days. A turn to the west-northwest is forecast to occur on Friday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Lane is forecast to become a hurricane on Friday and could become a major hurricane on Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).

Kinda cool re Hector since it has crossed the International Date Line

Not sure the last time I have seen TS Watches for Johnston Island and maybe soon to be Midway... from the 5am HST disco on Hector:

Debby became tropical... so I guess the point is moot

Do subtropical storms count if the storm never becomes tropical? I am guessing so.. just wondering

Storm spotters report 3.25 inch hail with the storm in SW SD near Pine Ridge

@nrgjeff Mod risk... good luck!