yoda

How do you know that? Just by the dark blue colors or something else?

For you, no. For EZF and areas around them, yes

Sorry, had to edit my post with the snowfall map. Corrected now

Hmmm

It's out already... 0.1 QPF gets into PW

It's not updated on the mag website

From updated LWX AFD as of 720 PM 12z and 18z guidance has unanimously shifted northward. Mean QPF from model output has risen to nearly an inch at the southern most reaches of our CWA (southern Nelson County), and just under a half inch near CHO. The northern edge of accumulating snow remains a challenge, but there is a non- zero/increasing chance for flurries or a light coating of snow to near I-66/US-50, in line with the northern edge of a baroclinic leaf developing upstream on satellite (marking the northern edge of stronger synoptic upward motion). As such, have upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning for Nelson County and the central Blue Ridge Mountains, with a Winter Weather Advisory for Albemarle and Augusta Counties. Winter Weather Advisories may need to be extended farther north in area into the Virginia Piedmont and portions of the Shenandoah Valley of Virginia, and Winter Storm Warnings may need to be extended north in area into portions of the central Shenandoah Valley and perhaps as far north as the Virginia Piedmont. Will re-assess headline decisions with the 00z guidance later tonight. If the northward trend continues (and it has for the last few model runs), then snow amounts will need to be increased and headlines will have to extend farther north. The most likely forecast was tweaked up slightly from the 12z forecast, which leaned about 2/3rds on a straight blend of 12z guidance and 1/3 previous forecast for continuity`s sake, offering respect to the strong confluence zone to the north. However, some outlier ensemble members continue to show even higher significant snowfall amounts (see Winter Weather Page at www.weather.gov/lwx/winter for latest range of possibility graphics). Since this is a dynamic system with a lot of moisture and a tight heavy snowfall gradient, staying tuned to later forecast updates is prudent. &&

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 602 PM EST Sat Dec 8 2018 VAZ025-037-090715- /O.UPG.KLWX.WS.A.0007.181209T1100Z-181210T0500Z/ /O.NEW.KLWX.WW.Y.0027.181209T1100Z-181210T0500Z/ Augusta-Albemarle- 602 PM EST Sat Dec 8 2018 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST SUNDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...Snow expected with accumulations around 2 to 5 inches. * WHERE...Augusta and Albemarle Counties. * WHEN...From 6 AM Sunday to midnight EST Sunday night. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 602 PM EST Sat Dec 8 2018 VAZ036-508-090715- /O.UPG.KLWX.WS.A.0007.181209T1100Z-181210T0500Z/ /O.NEW.KLWX.WS.W.0011.181209T1100Z-181210T0500Z/ Nelson-Central Virginia Blue Ridge- 602 PM EST Sat Dec 8 2018 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST SUNDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...Snow expected with accumulations around 3 to 6 inches. * WHERE...Nelson County, and Central Virginia Blue Ridge. * WHEN...From 6 AM Sunday to midnight EST Sunday night. The heaviest snow will be Sunday afternoon and early evening. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on snow covered and slippery roads. Travel will be difficult.

I think most of us south of DCA but north of EZF know around an inch is what we should be looking for at best. If we get more, so be it. If it's a dusting or just flurries, oh well, its snowing

According to Ji yup

Actually, a bit of a south jog with the QPF field

18z RGEM still looks good... waiting on QPF total

See you at 00z

And complaining Ji is back as well... ah, its winter now

Please explain how the 3km NAM is not a legit model... I am sure @dtk would love to hear

Another one of the anti-snow brigade pops up... we missed your constant complaining

Maybe not for you, but for the southern part of the LWX CWA yes it does

Comparing 12z total QPF at 36 to 18z at 30

Looks like 6" or so at EZF this run? wow...

Just as an FYI for us... AKQ has gone WSWatch for the counties bordering the LWX southern zones (aka around EZF) URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Wakefield VA 250 PM EST Sat Dec 8 2018 VAZ048-061-062-068-069-509>516-090400- /O.NEW.KAKQ.WS.A.0004.181209T1200Z-181210T0900Z/ Fluvanna-Cumberland-Goochland-Amelia-Powhatan-Western Louisa- Eastern Louisa-Western Hanover-Eastern Hanover- Western Chesterfield- Eastern Chesterfield (Including Col. Heights)- Western Henrico (Including the City of Richmond)-Eastern Henrico- Including the cities of Bybee, Central Plains, Cunningham, Lake Monticello, Nahor, Palmyra, Troy, Angola, Guinea Mills, Hawk, Raines Tavern, Reeds, Stoddert, Goochland, Earls, Mannboro, Scotts Fork, Amelia Courthouse, Chula, Denaro, Jetersville, Fine Creek Mills, Flat Rock, Goodwins Store, Subletts, Worshams, Clayville, Genito, Louisa, Mineral, Ashland, Mechanicsville, Bon Air, Midlothian, Chesterfield, Chester, Colonial Heights, Richmond, and Sandston 250 PM EST Sat Dec 8 2018 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...Wet snow, moderate to heavy at times will develop Sunday morning and continue through the day. The snow may mix with rain at times, especially closer to I-95, as temperatures rise above freezing. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches. Some light icing is possible Sunday night as temperatures drop below freezing. * WHERE...Portions of central Virginia including the Richmond Metro. * WHEN...From Sunday morning through late Sunday night.

Maybe we will get lucky and join them lol... I thought I saw they were forecasted to get only like 1-3? Or am I wrong on that?

Chance of snow? Chance of accumulation?