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yoda

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  1. yoda
    What about the MPAS?
  2. yoda
  3. yoda
    Severe Thunderstorm Watch up until midnight for NE MD and DE URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 638 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 435 PM EDT Tue Sep 1 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Delaware Northeast Maryland New Jersey Southern New York Central and Eastern Pennsylvania Coastal Waters * Effective this Tuesday afternoon from 435 PM until Midnight EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Supercell thunderstorms should pose a threat for large hail this afternoon as they track east-southeastward across the northern Mid-Atlantic. The threat for scattered severe/damaging winds should increase this evening as one or more clusters develops. A tornado or two may also occur with any sustained supercell.
  4. yoda
    https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md2185.html Mesoscale Discussion 2185 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213 PM CDT Tue Sep 01 2026 Areas affected...portions of the Mid-Atlantic Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 011913Z - 012115Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development is anticipated within the next 1-2 hours across portions of the Mid-Atlantic region. Given a favorable convective environment, storms will likely intensify and pose a severe wind/hail threat through early evening. Watch issuance is likely by 21z (5 PM EDT) as thunderstorms begin to mature. DISCUSSION...Latest GOES day cloud phase imagery depicts towering cumulus on the north/northeastern fringe of a low-level thermal ridge (roughly outlined by the 90 F isotherm) where modest warm advection is promoting ascent. Some lingering inhibition is noted in satellite imagery, but this should continue to erode over the next couple of hours as the diurnal heating maximum approaches. Latest guidance generally depicts deep convective initiation by 20-21 UTC within this regime and potentially along a diffuse frontal boundary draped from southern NY into northern PA. Regional VWPs continue to sample mid-level flow on the order of 35 knots, which is supporting similar effective bulk shear values given somewhat weak near-surface winds. Based on these observations and recent forecast soundings, hodograph elongation appears sufficient for organized convection, including the potential for a few supercells. While discrete modes persist, large hail (potentially up to 1.75 inches) will be possible. A brief tornado may also be possible - particularly across northern NJ/far southern NY near a weak surface trough where low-level veering may be adequate for a localized tornado threat. With time, clustering should promote some degree of upscale growth with an increasing severe wind threat, especially with southward extent into southern NJ and DE where guidance has been consistently showing a signal for clustered/linear storm modes. Given the favorable convective environment, watch issuance will likely be needed as convection begins to intensify. ..Moore/Gleason.. 09/01/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...
  5. yoda
    Severe Thunderstorm Watch coming in an hour or two for NE MD and DE potentially per MCD
  6. yoda
    Granted higher chance for this (bolded mine) is to our north Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Tue Sep 01 2026 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO MID-ATLANTIC AND OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the eastern Great Lakes to the Mid-Atlantic Wednesday into Wednesday night. Damaging wind gusts are the main threat, though some large hail and a few tornadoes may also occur. Widely scattered severe gusts and more sporadic occurrences of large hail appear possible from the northern Rockies into northern High Plains Wednesday afternoon into night. ...Synopsis... A belt of 40-50+ kt mid-level winds will spread from the Great Lakes into the Northeast in tandem with a series of low-amplitude disturbances. Elsewhere, a negatively tilted shortwave trough and attending mid-level jet streak will progress through the northern Rockies Wednesday afternoon and evening. At the surface, the primary baroclinic zone is expected to extend from low pressure over James Bay through the Great Lakes and mid MO Valley into the northern High Plains. A backdoor front/quasi-stationary boundary will reside over the Mid-Atlantic, the specific location of which will be dictated by the extent of outflow associated with early-day storms and the strength of low-level ridging stretching from the Gulf of St. Lawrence through the Northeast. ...Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic... As alluded to in the synopsis, thunderstorms may be ongoing at 12Z Wednesday from portions of WI and MI into NY and PA within a zone of forcing for ascent associated with a lead short-wave trough. The strongest storms will be capable of isolated occurrences of large hail and/or damaging winds as they spread east-southeast through the lower Great Lakes and Mid-Atlantic Wednesday morning. In the wake of the early-day convection, prevailing west-northwest mid-level flow will maintain a plume of relatively steep mid-level lapse rates (e.g., 7 C/km) atop boundary layer dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s, yielding MLCAPE upwards of 2000-3000+ J/kg by afternoon from lower MI into western parts of NY and PA. Additional thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon from lower MI through the lower Great Lakes, aided by weak disturbances aloft and the moderate to strong instability forecast across the warm sector. The presence of 35-45 kt of effective bulk shear will support organized storm modes including supercells and bowing structures capable of large hail potentially approaching two inches and damaging wind gusts into Wednesday night. Tornado potential will be conditional on storm mode; however, the models do indicate stronger low-level winds and resultant larger SRH developing from southwest ON into NY and PA Wednesday afternoon into evening, where the greatest potential for a few tornadoes will exist.
  7. yoda
    New Day 2 mentions higher chance for large hail and tornadoes SLGT risk moved further south towards RIC
  8. yoda
    Well the NAM only goes out to 84... and IIRC, SPC didnt really focus on our region severe-wise until Thursday and Friday - which is near the end of its run and after.
  9. yoda
    12z NAM soundings seem to like Wednesday evening into Thursday morning (21z to 06z). What i mean is they suggest some significant severe if everything came together
  10. yoda
    Looks like Wednesday to Friday will be our severe weather threat days
  11. yoda
    And the crowd boos Despite the uncertainties, it remains likely that high temperatures will reach the lower to middle 90s for much of the region for much of the new work week. Latest guidance indicates potential for temperatures in the upper 90s to near 100 mid week, so long as it is not disrupted by cloud cover or convection. Depending on smaller scale details, dew points could end up a little higher or lower than currently progged which will ultimately affect how high heat index values get. Values approaching Heat Advisory criteria (100-104 west of the Blue Ridge, 105-109 east of the Blue Ridge) are possible. Temperatures may begin to moderate by next weekend as a cold front crosses the region.
  12. yoda
    Afternoon AFD from LWX mentioned it KEY MESSAGE 2...Hot and humid conditions next week with increasing thunderstorm chances by midweek. Models are generally in good agreement that a strong mid-level ridge builds across the southern U.S. and into the Mid-Atlantic during the early to middle part of next week. Well above normal temperatures for late August can be expected as highs reach the lower to mid 90s. Hot and humid conditions are likely as heat indices reach the upper 90s and possibly the lower 100s. A more notable mid-level disturbance will progress from the northern High Plains to the Northeast toward the middle of next week. The ridge will be suppressed as a result, but it remains uncertain how much and how quickly this happens. The latest trend in the ensemble guidance is for the upper ridge over the Mid-South to be a bit further west. If this pans out, our area in the Mid-Atlantic will be in a more favorable location along the periphery of the ridge to be impacted by passing MCSs. Eventually, by mid week it looks like the upper ridge retreats enough to allow the shortwave troughs to move over our area. Several of the AI models indicate increasing severe potential at some point Tuesday through Friday, which is certainly possible given the high instability that will be in place, along with substantial upper-level support from any strong disturbance. It`s also possible a back door cold front tries to drop into the area by Wednesday or Thursday, leading to greater uncertainty in temperatures.
  13. yoda
    I see a report of quarter sized hail from a spotter as well as utility wires downed
  14. yoda
    There's a lot of reports down near Harrisonburg
  15. yoda
  16. yoda
    50/20 wind probs, 40/20 hail probs, 20/<2 tor probs
  17. yoda
    Watch up until 10pm URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 632 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 315 PM EDT Thu Aug 27 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of District Of Columbia Central Maryland Central Pennsylvania Northern Virginia Eastern Panhandle of West Virginia Coastal Waters * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 315 PM until 1000 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage and intensity is expected to increase across the region this afternoon as a shortwave trough and attendant cold front approach from the west. Warm and moist conditions have fostered strong buoyancy across the region while increasing mid-level flow contributes to strengthening deep-layer vertical shear. These environmental conditions support the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms, with damaging wind gusts and isolated large hail as the primary risks. A low-probability risk for a brief tornado or two exists as well.
  18. yoda
    Will there be CAD south from the HP located in Lake America for the duration of Winter Storm America?
  19. yoda
    Severe Thunderstorm Watch coming soon for most of us per MCD Mesoscale Discussion 2147 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 PM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026 Areas affected...south-central and southeast Pennsylvania into the West Virginia Panhandle...northern Virginia...and portions of Maryland Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 271752Z - 271945Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...The threat for severe thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts, marginally severe hail, and perhaps a brief tornado is expected to increase between 19-21Z. A severe thunderstorm watch is likely. DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery indicates deepening cumulus along the high terrain from the WV Panhandle and northern VA into portions of south-central PA amidst a warming and destabilizing boundary layer with MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg, per latest objective analysis. Continued daytime heating coupled with the glancing influence of a subtle disturbance passing near and to the southeast of the area is expected to support a gradual increase in thunderstorms across the discussion area over the next 2-3 hours. The degree of instability combined with around 30 kt of deep-layer shear will support some storm organization, including possible supercell and/or bowing structures, with the primary hazard being damaging wind gusts as low-level lapse rates continue to steepen. Marginally severe hail is also possible, especially with any supercells that may evolve. A conditional brief tornado threat may materialize, particularly over northeast MD into far southeast PA, with storms developing along or favorably interacting with an outflow boundary associated with ongoing storms over NJ, where low-level shear may be locally enhanced. ..Mead/Mosier.. 08/27/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX... LAT...LON 39077875 39737844 40637732 40627690 40387647 39907632 39407623 38477666 38207758 38277862 39077875 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
  20. yoda
    Probably flyover for the American 250 F1/Grand Prix race thing in DC today
  21. yoda
    I didn't know about this until it showed up in my feed - lunar eclipse this Thursday night into Friday morning https://www.timeanddate.com/eclipse/in/usa/washington-dc?iso=20260828
  22. yoda
    And more rain for you
  23. yoda
    Hitjob
  24. yoda
    Its headed east... coming for you
  25. yoda
    Looks like its re-intensifying... hail core has reappeared
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