yoda

Heat index is 104 lol... I mean its almost midnight

https://wtop.com/traffic/2026/07/portion-of-i-97-in-anne-arundel-co-buckles-under-extreme-heat/ But also https://foxbaltimore.com/news/local/crash-investigation-shuts-down-northbound-i97-friday

Super Typhoon Bavi has arrived with 160 mph winds

Okay, thank you for the explanation. It just seemed weird to have it as an all day thing - but I guess you can't just say AQ will be code purple after 6pm, but before it will be orange

But they dont go off until way late

MDZ013-504-506-050400- Central and Southeast Montgomery-Central and Southeast Howard- Prince Georges- 440 PM EDT Fri Jul 3 2026 ...AIR QUALITY ALERT IS IN EFFECT FOR SATURDAY JULY 4 2026... The Maryland Department of the Environment has issued a Code RED Air Quality Alert Saturday for the Maryland suburban DC region. A Code Red Air Quality Alert means that air pollution concentrations within the region are unhealthy for the general population. The effects of air pollution can be minimized by avoiding strenuous activity or exercise outdoors. For more information on ground-level ozone and fine particles visit the web site mde.maryland.gov/programs/air/AirQualityMonitoring/Pages/index.aspx

Uh what? VAZ053-054-505-506-526-527-050400- Fairfax-Western Loudoun-Eastern Loudoun-Northwest Prince William- Central and Southeast Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park- Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria- 440 PM EDT Fri Jul 3 2026 ...AIR QUALITY ALERT IS IN EFFECT FOR SATURDAY JULY 4 2026... The Virginia Department of Environmental Quality has issued a Code PURPLE Air Quality Alert Saturday for Northern Virginia. For more information on ground-level ozone and fine particles visit the web site Virginia DEQ air quality web site at www.deq.virginia.gov DCZ001-050400- District of Columbia- 440 PM EDT Fri Jul 3 2026 ...AIR QUALITY ALERT IS IN EFFECT FOR SATURDAY JULY 4 2026... The Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments and District Department of Environment has issued a Code PURPLE Air Quality Alert Saturday for the District of Columbia. For more information on ground-level ozone and fine particles visit the web site https://www.mwcog.org/environment/air/forecast/

Afternoon AFD from LWX for severe and flood threat Sat to Monday us long and detailed KEY MESSAGE 2...An increased risk for severe thunderstorms through the Independence Day holiday weekend. The Storm Prediction Center outlooks through late Sunday paint the picture of an active convective pattern ahead. A Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms is being advertised across portions of the area during this period. Most of the local area (Mid-Atlantic) should remain capped under upper ridging with forcing displaced to the north. However, any storms that develop to the north may make a run at the I-68/I-70 corridor this evening. Some guidance also attempts to develop an isolated thunderstorm or two along the bay breeze or near the Blue Ridge Mountains. As the upper ridge begins to undergo some weakening, the threat of strong to severe thunderstorms will increase through the holiday weekend. While the guidance shows deep-layered westerlies on Saturday, the flow is on the weaker side which would limit the negative influence of this flow on convective development. The likely triggers for diurnal convection will be around mesoscale boundaries like the lee-side trough, as well as bay and river breezes. Multiple days of intense heat and humidity yields somewhat extreme levels of instability (i.e., mixed layer CAPEs around 3,000 to 4,000 J/kg in some models). With downdraft CAPE values nearing 1,500 J/kg, significant wind damage is not out of the question with more potent updrafts. While difficult to hone in on timing, multiple rounds cannot be ruled given the degree of instability in the atmosphere. A Slight Risk for severe convection remains across the entire region. The updated Day 3/Sunday outlook also brings another Slight Risk day to the local area. A series of weak to modest perturbations in the flow will work in tandem with an approaching nearby frontal system. The position of remnant outflows, degree of convective debris, and additional development are all questions looming for Sunday`s forecast. Despite the uncertainty, the parameters remain favorable for further thunderstorm activity. Additional chances for showers and thunderstorms continue through Tuesday, although the speed at which this weekend`s trough tracks south will be critical for these continued chances to materialize. ML guidance shows an upwards chance in thunderstorm & severe potential for Monday, with NCAR`s Medium-Range AI NWP guidance showing a 30%-45% probability in the 00z guidance for Monday afternoon/evening. Synoptic setup in the days beforehand will be critical in understanding the nature & scope of thunderstorms during this period. Temperatures look to potentially drop as this cold front tracks to the south by early Tuesday, although dewpoints will remain elevated for now resulting in continued humid conditions. Nevertheless, heat indices look to potentially dip back into double digits by Tuesday afternoon in the metros. High pressure moves over the region midweek. KEY MESSAGE 3...Increasing concern for the threat of flash flooding through Monday. Outside of the severe potential over the next few days, which is mentioned in detail above, there is growing concern for a flash flood threat. For Independence Day, the threat is much lower, but still not zero. An extremely moist air mass will be in place over the region, so storms will produce prolific rainfall rates for those that do get them. However, as mentioned above, there is a big concern for damaging downbursts, which should actually mitigate the flash flood threat by keeping storms moving. Urban/poor drainage areas will have an isolated flash flood threat, but it will be very situational, hence the marginal risk for excessive rainfall from WPC over the area. Outside of the metro areas, most locations are still very dry due to the ongoing drought, so the flash flood threat is much lower. By Sunday, things start to get a little more concerning, but especially by Monday. As the upper-level ridge continues to buckle, a trough over the Great Lakes will form with a cold front tracking through the region by Monday. Storms on Sunday are likely to trigger ahead of this front and along existing outflow boundaries from Saturday, terrain circulations, and Bay/River breezes. Storms should generally be progressive, but the threat for training increases if any of these existing boundaries line up parallel to the mean flow. A lot of uncertainty with this, as we have to see how Saturday`s event unfolds first and see what boundaries are left behind in its wake. By Monday though, the slow-moving frontal boundary drops into our region. This front will be very wavy in nature, but some portion seems likely to line up with the mean low-mid level flow, which is out of the WSW. Training convection is much more likely Monday afternoon. Additionally, several days of convection before Monday could reduce the flash-flood guidance, with some areas becoming more susceptible. Either way, the urban areas are the greatest area of concern, as model guidance wants to hang this front up somewhere nearby. With PWATs in excess of 2", skinny CAPE profiles, a deep warm cloud layer, and boundary-parallel low-mid level flow, a lot of ingredients are there for a more widespread flash flooding threat. &&

SLGT risk line moved southward on 2000 SPC OTLK into DC metro

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 448 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 325 PM EDT Fri Jul 3 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northern Delaware Northeast Maryland New Jersey Southern New York Central and Eastern Pennsylvania Coastal Waters * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 325 PM until 1100 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are intensifying over southern New York and northern Pennsylvania in a hot/humid air mass. These storms will track southeastward through the afternoon and early evening, posing a risk of locally damaging wind gusts.

Watch up for N and NE MD until 11pm

By @H2O ?

This should be fun to see

30 wind added for tomorrow on 1730z day 2 SPC OTLK

Severe Thunderstorm Watch up until 7pm CDT https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0445.html

If you believe the 5 min obs at DCA... 99

93/75/105 at 10am at DCA

Or if you are a Mortal Kombat fan... TOASTY!

So far, and probably still have about 2 more hours to go... but the low temp at DCA is 84

From this morning LWX AFD Record temperatures will continue through much of the upcoming Independence Day holiday weekend. An upper ridge remains parked across a vast portion of the southeastern U.S. into the Tennessee/Ohio Valleys and Mid-Atlantic region. Lower tropospheric temperatures remain very anomalous and record breaking in nature. Of note, the 00Z IAD sounding reported an 850-mb temperature of 25.0 C which is not only the 3rd highest of all time, but breaks the daily record by over 4.0 C. Recent 00Z models show a subtle decrease in these 850-mb temperatures. However, based on yesterday`s observations, models have been slightly too cool with this layer of the atmosphere. Thus, see little reason to diverge from another hot forecast with widespread temperatures punching into the 98 to 102 degree range. Even during the writing of this discussion (~3 AM), a number of the warmer spots remain entrenched in the upper 70s to mid 80s. High dew points should also remain a fixture in the forecast with readings holding steady in the low/mid 70s. Although some boundary layer mixing could slightly lower such dew points, the combination of triple digit highs and low 70s dew points will easily crank heat indices to around 110F. Extreme Heat Warnings continue from 10 AM until 9 PM across a bulk of the Mid-Atlantic region. For those in the Blue Ridge, Alleghenies, and across the central Shenandoah Valley, heat indices around 100 to 104 degrees supports Heat Advisories today.

86/72 at 4am. HI 92

87/77 at 1am... yuck