yoda

Mesoscale Discussion 2091 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0502 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Areas affected...Portions of western/central Virginia and northern North Carolina Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 222202Z - 230030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Storms are expected to increase in coverage while spreading eastward into this evening. The primary concern is locally damaging wind gusts. While a watch is not currently expected, trends are being monitored. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are increasing in coverage along the Blue Ridge in western VA, potentially aided by increasing midlevel height falls preceding a broad midlevel trough approaching the region from the west. Over the next few hours, these storms should continue spreading eastward across western/central VA and northern NC. A warm, moist, and uncapped air mass downstream should support a modest increase in thunderstorm coverage. While midlevel lapse rates are limiting overall buoyancy (around 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE), an elongated midlevel hodograph (40 kt of 0-6 km shear per FCX VWP) could promote a few loosely organized clusters capable of producing locally damaging wind gusts. While the overall risk may remain too localized/sparse for a watch, trends are being monitored. ..Weinman/Thompson.. 08/22/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...GSP... LAT...LON 36568122 36908125 37628037 38057977 38737887 39377837 39447792 39237739 38807712 38207722 36967810 36137933 35987997 36008043 36298116 36568122 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN

What the... what is this Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 614 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 WVC027-031-222245- /O.CON.KLWX.SV.W.0435.000000T0000Z-260822T2245Z/ Hardy WV-Hampshire WV- 614 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 645 PM EDT FOR NORTHEASTERN HARDY AND SOUTHEASTERN HAMPSHIRE COUNTIES... At 613 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Wardensville, or 14 miles southeast of Romney, moving east at 10 mph. THIS IS A DESTRUCTIVE STORM FOR SOUTHERN HAMPSHIRE COUNTY. HAZARD...80 mph wind gusts and two inch hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Expect considerable damage to trees and power lines. Your life is at significant risk if outdoors. In addition to some trees falling into homes, wind damage is possible to roofs, sheds, open garages, and mobile homes. Locations impacted include... Rio, Yellow Spring, Delray, and Capon Springs. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... This storm is producing destructive winds and large damaging hail. SEEK SHELTER NOW inside a sturdy structure and stay away from windows. Continuous cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm. Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature`s leading killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways. && LAT...LON 3913 7869 3920 7867 3926 7846 3912 7845 3911 7848 3910 7850 TIME...MOT...LOC 2213Z 273DEG 8KT 3917 7861 TORNADO...POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...2.00 IN WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX WIND GUST...80 MPH

Arsenal pretty much toying with Coventry

Spotter in Dover reported flying debris and rain wrapped tornado at 618pm

Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ Issued by National Weather Service New York NY 618 PM EDT Thu Aug 20 2026 DEC001-202245- /O.CON.KPHI.TO.W.0030.000000T0000Z-260820T2245Z/ Kent DE- 618 PM EDT Thu Aug 20 2026 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 645 PM EDT FOR CENTRAL KENT COUNTY... At 618 PM EDT, a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado was located over Dover Speedway, or over Dover, moving northeast at 30 mph. Damage from the tornado has been reported in Dover. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...Damaging tornado. SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado. IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes, businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction is possible. Locations impacted include... Dover, Camden, Cheswold, Rising Sun-Lebanon, Rising Sun, Dover Base Housing, Dover Speedway, Wyoming, Little Creek, Leipsic, Rodney Village, Kent Acres, and Highland Acres. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... To repeat, a large, extremely dangerous and potentially deadly tornado is occurring. To protect your life, TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. Heavy rainfall may hide this tornado. Do not wait to see or hear the tornado. TAKE COVER NOW! && LAT...LON 3921 7561 3930 7542 3929 7542 3928 7540 3920 7538 3909 7539 3908 7558 3912 7562 TIME...MOT...LOC 2218Z 247DEG 28KT 3919 7550 TORNADO...OBSERVED TORNADO DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN

Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ Issued by National Weather Service New York NY 554 PM EDT Thu Aug 20 2026 DEC001-MDC035-202215- /O.CON.KPHI.TO.W.0029.000000T0000Z-260820T2215Z/ Kent DE-Queen Anne`s MD- 554 PM EDT Thu Aug 20 2026 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 PM EDT FOR NORTHWESTERN KENT AND NORTHEASTERN QUEEN ANNE`S COUNTIES... At 553 PM EDT, a confirmed tornado was located near Hartly, or 14 miles west of Dover, moving east at 30 mph. HAZARD...Damaging tornado. SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. Locations impacted include... Sudlersville, Hartly, Kenton, and Templeville. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... To repeat, a tornado has been confirmed. TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. This cluster of thunderstorms is capable of producing tornadoes and widespread significant wind damage. Do not wait to see or hear the tornado. For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways. && LAT...LON 3921 7588 3925 7578 3925 7576 3926 7575 3929 7566 3909 7565 3910 7574 3914 7575 3913 7579 3911 7583 TIME...MOT...LOC 2153Z 262DEG 28KT 3917 7578 TORNADO...OBSERVED MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN

TOG heading towards Dover

Madison to Culpepper storms going up

Looks like @WxUSAF got a nice quick hit

Initiation trying near Harrisonburg

AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 331 PM EDT Thu Aug 20 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Severe and Tornado Watches have been issued for parts of the area until 10 PM. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Severe and Tornado Watches are in effect until 10 PM. - After a brief lull Friday, additional showers and a few thunderstorms are possible Friday night into Saturday. - Thunderstorm chances increase on Sunday before drier conditions move in early next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Severe and Tornado Watches are in effect until 10 PM. KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Our atmosphere is characterized by 90F temps and mid 70s dewpoints with up to 3500 J/KG of MUCAPE, DCAPE of 418 J/kg, 40 kt of 0-6 km shear, and 0-3 km SRH of 220 m^2/S^2 based on our 18Z IAD sounding. Storms have already exhibited mid-level rotation, particularly the one over the eastern shore of MD. Expect discrete supercells this afternoon with a sig tornado potential, particularly along and south of I-70 where 18Z gridded NUCAPS data showed a tight low-level moisture gradient. By evening, storms may congeal into an MCS or line as shown in earlier and most recent HRRR forecasts. Flash flooding risk is expected to remain low due to progressive storm motions of around 27kt, but brief intense rainfall rates of 2"/hour are possible.

90/74/99 at 3pm at DCA

Fwiw, SPC disco from the tornado watch makes it seem we see storms this evening SUMMARY...Scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast to continue to develop and intensify through the afternoon and into the evening. A few of the stronger storms will be supercells capable of a risk for tornadoes, damaging gusts, and large hail. A consolidation of storms will probably occur during the evening as one or two line segments develops with an attendant risk for damaging winds and possibly a tornado.

40/20 tor probs... pretty decent for our area. 50/30 wind

The 18z sounding should be very interesting

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 AM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026 Valid 201630Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC...PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST...AND FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are possible this afternoon into this evening across parts of the Mid Atlantic, posing a risk for a couple of tornadoes and damaging wind gusts. Large hail and isolated wind damage will be possible late today into tonight with severe storms from Nebraska into northwest Wisconsin. Scattered damaging gusts are possible over parts of the Deep South this afternoon into the early evening. ...Central Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic... Radar mosaic late this morning showed a couple of weak convectively related vorticity maxima moving east across the central and southern Appalachians (i.e., southwest PA, eastern KY). One of these lead disturbances was sampled by the WSR-88D VAD at Jackson, KY, with an upstream shortwave trough over the OH Valley moving towards the Mid-Atlantic states. The airmass across the Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas will continue to heat amid patchy but thinning cloud cover. Model guidance shows moderate buoyancy developing by early to mid afternoon from the southern Appalachians northward into the northern Mid-Atlantic region. A belt of stronger 700-500 mb westerly flow (30-45 kt) will overspread the northern half of VA northward into PA/NJ. Beneath this stronger flow, southerly low-level flow veering and strengthening with height will support hodographs favorable for organized severe storms, including supercells and organized line segments. The latest model guidance shows a few simulated supercells developing in the area centered over MD and the upper Chesapeake Bay vicinity during the 20-00z timeframe. This scenario seems plausible given some low-level enlargement to the hodograph and effective shear around 40 kt. A tendency for upscale growth into a line segment is expected as this activity moves east towards the coast during the evening. A couple of supercell tornadoes are possible with this activity, in addition to a line-embedded mesovortex and scattered damaging gusts.

Oh... um hello there CIG 1 hatching

Well thats interesting... 30%wind and 5% tornado moved westward, now includes DC metro on 1630z OTLK

LWX will do an 18z SPEC sounding per SPC request - in updated morning AFD

It shows up here - https://kamala.cod.edu/SPC/ Well, the discussion does

Morning discussion from LWX DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Severe weather is possible, mainly east of the Blue Ridge this afternoon into early evening. A slow-moving cold front arcs down the Saint Lawrence River Valley to the lower Great Lakes back into the central Great Plains. To the south, a largely stationary front was attempting to lift slowly northward as a warm front, and stretched from the Carolinas back to Oklahoma. Showers and thunderstorms were persistently trekking west to east along the northern front, with a weak surface low and MCV/shortwave crossing Illinois. This shortwave will be the impetus for convective development across the Mid-Atlantic later today as the local area sits in between the two aforementioned fronts. Most instability this morning is rather weak and elevated in nature, but is expected to increase rapidly in the I-95 corridor from south to north as higher moisture air advects into the area, as well as near the Appalachians ahead of an approaching shortwave, both by late this morning. For now, weak lift and CAPE is keeping things limited to a few WAA showers near the metros. Additional development, perhaps even deeper convective cores, is possible by as early as late morning given the anticipated rapid increase in CAPE and lift. Flow aloft is seasonably strong by late August standards, with a 100+ knot 300 hPa jet streak expected to pivot over the Saint Lawrence River Valley into northern New England by evening. The tail of this upper jet may actually strengthen and persist near the Mason-Dixon Line early this evening, which could briefly enhance large scale ascent locally via RRQ dynamics. In the mid levels, the previously mentioned shortwave has trended notably deeper and a bit slower over the last 12-24 hours. This brings the axis of the shortwave, its enhanced flow, and PVA across the Appalachians around midday, then across areas near and east of the Blue Ridge/Catoctin Mountains east to I-95 and the Chesapeake Bay during peak heating. In addition to bringing large scale ascent, this pushes effective deep layer bulk shear into the 35- to 50-knot range later today (highest north/northeast). Shear of this magnitude is favorable for sustained, organized updrafts, including line segments and supercells (discrete or line-embedded). Thermodynamically, the atmosphere will be very moist, especially further east. Strong low-level theta-e advection is expected to persist through early evening ahead of the approaching shortwave and cold front. Widespread clouds will limit heating somewhat, especially west of the Blue Ridge where the storm threat is notably less, but with the strong low-level moisture advection and slow-but-steady cooling aloft, the net result should be about 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE in the moist plume east of the Blue Ridge heading into this afternoon, possibly as early as late morning. The moist low-level advection beneath cooling aloft may also result in re-generative CAPE and multiple rounds of thunderstorms in any one location. This would be most likely from near the DC metro north and east where large scale ascent is strongest, with the added component of enhanced low-level convergence along bay or river breezes (and eventually composite outflow boundaries). Finally, PWs will approach or exceed 2 inches in the moist axis near and east of I-95 this afternoon into early evening. Deep warm cloud layers in the high PW airmass will yield heavy to extreme instantaneous and sub-hourly rainfall rates in the stronger precip cores. Individual cell motion is expected to be progressive (30-40 mph) given enhanced flow through the column and the potential for modest cold pool development with any persistent cells, clusters or line segments. However, the wavy slow-moving front approaching from the north may lie close to parallel to the mean steering flow at times, especially when modulated by outflow from potential multiple rounds of storms. This, coupled with the bay breeze which often takes on a similar orientation, plus the urban footprint that has seen heavy rain recently raises a (primarily urban/poor drainage) flash flood risk over the I-95 corridor in northeast Maryland, including the Baltimore area. The threat is a bit more conditional further south and west into areas like Annapolis and the DC/Capital Beltway region; these areas also feature urban sprawl and inherently lower FFG, but the training potential is more conditional based on favorable outflow or cell interactions given slightly further displacement from the synoptic front(s) and bay breeze. Multiple hazards are possible today, and are outlined below. Damaging Wind... Straight-line/downburst winds are likely the highest threat today, at least from an areal coverage standpoint. Tall, skinny CAPE profiles with modest pockets of mid-level dry air yield DCAPE of 600-800 J/kg, which would be marginally favorable for strong to severe downdrafts. Background mid-level flow may approach 40 knots around 700 hPa. With the high PW air and modest DCAPE, water-loaded downdrafts via precip drag would be possible especially with any bowing line segments or collapsing mesocyclones/mesovorticies. The lack of steeper lapse rates (hence modest DCAPE) should keep most wind gusts within the strongest storms in the 55-70 mph range, with more widespread 40-55 mph potential. Given heavy precip and late summer, leafed- up trees, would anticipate scattered to numerous instances of tree and branch falls and subsequent power outage potential. The risk is highest near and east of I-95 where storms are most likely to become linear and be a bit more intense, since they`re further east in the moist axis with a little more time to heat. To the west, especially west of the Blue Ridge, less moisture and heating should keep the coverage of more intense storms low. Tornadoes... A conditional risk for a brief spin-up is evident for most areas east of the Blue Ridge given the magnitude of low/mid-level flow and high PWs/lower LCLs. Relatively greater tornado potential may exist closer to the front near the I-70 corridor east of Frederick where surface winds will be backed and low-level SRH will be higher, especially in close proximity to the bay breeze along the western shore of the Chesapeake Bay into northeast MD. Potential would be further maximized by (1) discrete supercells occurring earlier when the synoptic low-level winds remain backed and SRH is higher on a broad scale, and (2) with any favorable QLCS surge/mesovortex interactions with residual outflow or the bay breeze. Although unlikely due to a lack of stronger 0-1 km shear/SRH and steeper lapse rates, robust 3CAPE near the bay could result in a conditional risk for a strong tornado if all of the above factors were to coalesce. Flash Flooding... We have been in a wetter pattern recently, but the majority of the region is still in or just coming out of drought. Poor drainage and urban areas are susceptible to heavy rain, especially the intense sub-hourly rates possible today, regardless. Additionally, areas near and just northeast of Baltimore have seen multiple episodes of heavy rain over the last few weeks. Individual storms should move pretty swiftly, but the slowing southwest end of any lines or clusters would orient parallel to the nearby surface front, bay breeze, and mean steering flow. This brings a risk of flash flooding to northeast MD in particular, with a more conditional risk further south and west into the greater DC metro. Hail... Although lapse rates aloft will be modest at best given the moist profiles, supercellular shear and modest mid-level cooling will be favorable for at least some marginal/spotty severe hail potential. Should mid-level shear/cooling be more potent or cells be more discrete, the hail risk could increase, but this seems unlikely given the otherwise tropical-esque airmass. The threat for severe weather and flooding appears highest between 2 PM this afternoon and 8 PM this evening, progressing west to east in one or two rounds. However, it may start a couple hours earlier further west (or on the bay breeze), and could linger through late evening over southern Maryland. By later this evening, the departure of large scale lift and the loss of daytime heating should end the severe/flood threat.

Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 650 AM EDT Thu Aug 20 2026 ANZ530>543-DCZ001-MDZ008-011-013-014-016>018-504-506-508- VAZ053>057-527-211100- Chesapeake Bay north of Pooles Island MD- Chesapeake Bay from Pooles Island to Sandy Point MD- Chesapeake Bay from Sandy Point to North Beach MD- Chesapeake Bay from North Beach to Drum Point MD- Chesapeake Bay from Drum Point MD to Smith Point VA- Tidal Potomac from Key Bridge to Indian Head MD- Tidal Potomac from Indian Head to Cobb Island MD- Tidal Potomac from Cobb Island MD to Smith Point VA- Patapsco River including Baltimore Harbor- Chester River to Queenstown MD-Eastern Bay- Choptank River to Cambridge MD and the Little Choptank River- Patuxent River to Broomes Island MD- Tangier Sound and the inland waters surrounding Bloodsworth Island-District of Columbia-Cecil-Southern Baltimore- Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-Charles-St. Marys-Calvert- Central and Southeast Montgomery-Central and Southeast Howard- Southeast Harford-Fairfax-Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria- Stafford-Spotsylvania-King George- Central and Southeast Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park- 650 AM EDT Thu Aug 20 2026 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Maryland portion of the Chesapeake Bay, Tidal Potomac River, and I-95 corridor through central Maryland, northern Virginia, and District of Columbia. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Numerous thunderstorms are expected between about 3 PM and 9 PM. These storms may contain damaging wind gusts and potentially a couple of tornadoes, especially near northeast Maryland. There is also a threat of urban flash flooding, with the highest risk near and northeast of Baltimore.

30 wind and 5 tor for Delmarva

06z Day 1 OTLK moved SLGT back west a bit to just west of BR... MRGL back west of i81 corridor

Morning discussion from LWX seems to suggest sneaky severe day. While likely do be MRGL, they do mention much higher threat possible Latest guidance is a bit slower and further west/northwest with the position of a cold front on Thursday. SLP progs hint at two subtle warm front type features that will lift northeast during the day on Thursday ahead of a pair of weak surface lows (one near PA/NJ, and the other near central VA). Where this front ends up just prior to peak heating will be crucial in determining the severe weather threat locally on Thursday. Forecast soundings show strong mid-level capping west of the front Thursday afternoon, with no capping and notably stronger CAPE approaching or exceeding 2000 J/kg east of it. The consensus is for this front to be more or less over I-95 Thursday afternoon during peak heating, though there is some variance anywhere from near the Blue Ridge to the Chesapeake Bay. Mid-level lapse rates start the day unimpressive, around 5 C/km likely due to saturation aloft associated with a weak wave of showers, but steepen slightly closer to 6 C/km by afternoon due to some cooling aloft. The extent of any clouds and showers cast some uncertainty on the extent of heating and instability later in the day. The background environment is favorable for strong to severe updrafts and even supercells. An 80-90+ kt upper jet will pivot over the area, with its right entrance ascent positioned over the surface frontal zone in the afternoon. Mid-level heights stay relatively steady, but PVA (strongest north) will be prevalent ahead of the aforementioned mid/upper wave and jet. Flow will increase through the column, with 25-40 kts in the 2-5 km AGL layer and effective deep layer bulk shear around 40 kts. SRH also increases to 100-200 m2/s2. Initial discrete cells in this environment may quickly grow upscale into a line capable of surges of strong to severe straight-line wind and a few embedded spin ups. Some hail can`t be ruled out in the strongest storms due to cooling temps aloft. Finally, although Corfidi vectors are not too low (10-15 kts), on the mesoscale some backbuilding or training potential may exist on the tail (southwest) end of any developing line heading into the evening. Again, the highest potential will be along and east of the front which currently appears to be near I-95 during the afternoon into the early evening hours. Although somewhat conditional based on (1) the placement of the front, and (2) the degree of instability, Thursday`s severe weather and excessive rainfall risk bears monitoring. For now, given the uncertainties listed above, the risk is more in the Marginal (level 1 out of 5) bin for severe weather (i.e. any damaging winds, large hail, tornadoes), but with a conditionally much higher ceiling than most typical late summer days. The excessive rainfall/flood risk may be even more conditional due to uncertain mesoscale factors and lingering drought.