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yoda

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  1. yoda
    Morning day 3 discussion from SPC Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE CAROLINAS AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of mainly damaging winds appear possible from the southern Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas and central and southern Appalachians Tuesday into Tuesday evening. Isolated severe wind gusts may occur in the central High Plains. ...Synopsis... A short-wave trough initially over the lower Great Lakes Tuesday morning is forecast to evolve into a closed low over the Mid-Atlantic. Within the base of that feature, a belt of enhanced mid-level flow will spread from the OH Valley into VA and NC by afternoon. At the surface, an area of low pressure over southwest ON Tuesday morning is expected to reform in the Delmarva by afternoon with a lee trough extending southwest along the Piedmont. Meanwhile, a cold front will advance southeast through the central and southern Appalachians, the southern Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas. ...Mid-Atlantic into Southern Appalachians... Showers and thunderstorms (some potentially strong) are expected to be ongoing Tuesday morning from the upper OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic and central Appalachians within a zone of forcing for ascent preceding the short-wave trough. Various 00Z model data indicate deep convection lingering into afternoon from the central Appalachians into the Delmarva and points north, leading to uncertainty in the degree of air mass destabilization in those areas. Where stronger heating can occur, the presence of a moist air mass will contribute to moderate instability by afternoon within a kinematic environment featuring anywhere from 30 to 45 kt of deep-layer shear. Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage and intensity during the afternoon preferentially along the cold front and lee trough where sufficient destabilization has occurred. Organized storm modes appear possible, including supercells and bowing structures, with the primary hazards being damaging wind gusts. Some tornado threat could materialize Tuesday afternoon in the Delmarva near the surface low. That threat is conditional on sufficient air mass destabilization and the presence of a supercell mode.
  2. yoda
    https://partnerservices.nws.noaa.gov/products/cache/205-2026/PNSLWX/c88b4b76421e8f7e48bd910a1aa7a19e Didnt see this posted yet
  3. yoda
    Morning AFD from LWX mentions "ridge rollers" KEY MESSAGE 2...Returning to a summer-like pattern next week. Coming off of the weekend, an upper-level trough begins to dig into the northeastern U.S. This will usher in the potential for organized convection early to mid week. In spite of multiple frontal passages during the period, next week could carry a return to summer-like conditions with heat indices in the mid 90s to near 100 degrees. The key players will be a longstanding upper ridge across the southwestern U.S. into the southern/central Great Plains, a deep upper low near Hudson Bay, and longwave trough over the eastern U.S. While ensemble solutions do not show a more formidable shortwave tracking across the area, the setup certainly lends itself to a more active pattern. A series of "ridge rollers" are likely to cross the northern tier of the country before crossing the Great Lakes and northeastern states. At this juncture, the machine-learning algorithms favor an uptick in convection on Monday into Tuesday. This would present the most likely opportunity for any severe thunderstorms. A progressive pattern aloft will bring a cold front through the region on Tuesday evening/night, with a secondary boundary on its heels. While temperatures remain seasonable in this mid/late week pattern shift, dew points slowly come down to finish out the month of July.
  4. yoda
    Outlooked on Day 5 from SPC... and sounds like we could see additional outlooks in the LR next weekend Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 AM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026 Valid 271200Z - 011200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Monday... A prominent upper high will remain centered over the central and southern Plains with a belt of enhanced mid-level flow forecast along the periphery of that feature from the northern Plains into the Great Lakes. Within that flow regime, a short-wave trough is forecast to translate through the Great Lakes in tandem with a surface low and trailing cold front. A hot and moist boundary layer is expected ahead of the front, yielding moderate to strong instability by afternoon. Despite veered low-level winds, strengthening mid/upper-level winds in the exit region of a jet streak will contribute to sufficient vertical shear for organized severe storms across portions of the Great Lakes into the OH Valley Monday afternoon into night. ...Day 5/Tuesday... The Day 4/Monday short-wave trough is forecast to evolve into an upper low across southwest ON and the lower Great Lakes with an associated belt of stronger cyclonic flow developing from the OH Valley into the southern Mid-Atlantic and NC. At the surface, an area of low pressure will develop from the lower Great Lakes into central NY with a trailing cold front advancing through the upper OH Valley, central Appalachians, and Mid-Atlantic. Thunderstorms may be ongoing Tuesday morning along and ahead of the front from the lower Great Lakes and upper OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic. Stronger heating is anticipated to the south of the early-day storms from the southern Mid-Atlantic into NC, where moderate to potentially strong instability is forecast. The strongest instability will coincide with modestly strong deep-layer shear to support some severe weather threat in those areas Tuesday afternoon and evening. ...Days 6-8/Wednesday-Friday... The 00Z ensemble means depict a slight westward regression of the dominant mid/upper-level high with persistent troughing along the East Coast. On the periphery of the high, a notable short-wave trough is forecast to progress from the Canadian Rockies on Wednesday through the Prairie Provinces on Thursday with modest height falls along the international border. By Friday, there is some model signal for another short-wave trough to move into the upper MS Valley and Great Lakes regions. At the surface, a more substantial cold front is projected to move into the northern Plains on Thursday, and the upper Midwest and Great Lakes by Friday. A few severe storms appear possible in the Southeast and northern Plains on Wednesday, the northern Plains on Thursday, and the upper Midwest into the Great Lakes on Friday. Confidence in the magnitude and areal extent of the threat is currently too low to delineate additional areas. ..Mead.. 07/24/2026
  5. yoda
    Looks like next week we go again Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026 Valid 251200Z - 301200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Upper Midwest to Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic... An upper ridge centered over the High Plains will persist through the middle of next week. Meanwhile, upper troughing will be maintained over the eastern U.S. Periods of enhanced northwesterly flow aloft are expected across parts of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes into parts of the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic on the eastern periphery of the Plains upper ridge. Several shortwave impulses are forecast to develop southeast from Canada within this northwest flow regime. This could support daily severe thunderstorm chances from the Upper Midwest into the Ohio Valley, and possibly the Mid-Atlantic. However, the timing of these features is uncertain, and midlevel capping could limit the spatial extent of severe potential. It is likely that portions of the Upper Midwest into the Ohio Valley will need severe probabilities in later outlooks, particularly for Day 4-6/Sat-Mon, and possibly the mid-Atlantic by Day 7/Tue. However, confidence in where this risk will develop each day is too low for 15 percent delineation at this time. ..Leitman.. 07/22/2026
  6. yoda
    BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 705 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Southeastern Grant County in eastern West Virginia... Southwestern Hardy County in eastern West Virginia... * Until 730 PM EDT. * At 704 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located near Petersburg, moving east at 30 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...For those in the direct path of a tornado touchdown, flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Damage to roofs, siding, and windows may occur. Mobile homes may be damaged or destroyed. Tree damage is likely. * This dangerous storm will be near... Petersburg and Rough Run around 710 PM EDT. Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Masonville, Welton, Brake, and Dorcas. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. && LAT...LON 3903 7918 3901 7885 3883 7894 3893 7923 TIME...MOT...LOC 2304Z 284DEG 25KT 3896 7917 TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN
  7. yoda
    BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 703 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Southwestern Frederick County in northwestern Virginia... East central Hardy County in eastern West Virginia... Southeastern Hampshire County in eastern West Virginia... * Until 730 PM EDT. * At 703 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located 9 miles north of Wardensville, or 11 miles southeast of Romney, moving east at 35 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...For those in the direct path of a tornado touchdown, flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Damage to roofs, siding, and windows may occur. Mobile homes may be damaged or destroyed. Tree damage is likely. * This dangerous storm will be near... Star Tannery around 715 PM EDT. Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Yellow Spring, Gravel Springs, High View, Delray, Wilde Acres, Rock Enon Springs, Capon Springs, and Lehew. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. && LAT...LON 3925 7830 3909 7838 3910 7839 3909 7839 3910 7840 3905 7845 3904 7845 3912 7865 3927 7859 TIME...MOT...LOC 2303Z 285DEG 29KT 3921 7865 TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN $$
  8. yoda
    BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 656 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Central Pendleton County in eastern West Virginia... * Until 730 PM EDT. * At 656 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located 14 miles west of Franklin, moving east at 40 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...For those in the direct path of a tornado touchdown, flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Damage to roofs, siding, and windows may occur. Mobile homes may be damaged or destroyed. Tree damage is likely. * This dangerous storm will be near... Franklin around 710 PM EDT. Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Riverton, Circleville, Ruddle, and Cherry Grove. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. This cluster of thunderstorms is capable of producing tornadoes and widespread significant wind damage. Do not wait to see or hear the tornado. For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. && LAT...LON 3867 7962 3867 7959 3868 7960 3869 7960 3875 7953 3878 7952 3883 7930 3858 7926 3865 7963 3866 7962 3866 7963 TIME...MOT...LOC 2256Z 261DEG 33KT 3871 7960 TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN
  9. yoda
    Tornado Warning up BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 638 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Southwestern Hampshire County in eastern West Virginia... * Until 715 PM EDT. * At 638 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located 8 miles southwest of Romney, moving east at 30 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...For those in the direct path of a tornado touchdown, flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Damage to roofs, siding, and windows may occur. Mobile homes may be damaged or destroyed. Tree damage is likely. * This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of southwestern Hampshire County, including the following locations... Augusta, Frenchburg, Kirby, Junction, Shanks, and Purgitsville. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. && LAT...LON 3931 7858 3913 7865 3925 7895 3931 7891 3933 7889 3933 7886 TIME...MOT...LOC 2238Z 288DEG 24KT 3927 7888 TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN
  10. yoda
    Storm right behind it (near Romney) just got svr warning with tor possible tag
  11. yoda
    Um uh oh Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 629 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026 VAC069-212245- /O.CON.KLWX.TO.W.0017.000000T0000Z-260721T2245Z/ Frederick VA- 629 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 645 PM EDT FOR SOUTH CENTRAL FREDERICK COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN VIRGINIA... At 629 PM EDT, a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado was located near Star Tannery, or 10 miles west of Winchester, moving east at 20 mph. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...Damaging tornado. SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado. IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes, businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction is possible. Locations impacted include... High View Manor and Wilde Acres. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... To repeat, a tornado is on the ground. To protect your life, TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. && LAT...LON 3918 7819 3907 7827 3915 7841 3918 7839 TIME...MOT...LOC 2229Z 291DEG 18KT 3915 7837 TORNADO...OBSERVED TORNADO DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN
  12. yoda
    Getting hooky near Purcellville...
  13. yoda
    BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 622 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... West central Montgomery County in central Maryland... Northeastern Loudoun County in northern Virginia... * Until 700 PM EDT. * At 622 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Purcellville, or near Leesburg, moving east at 15 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... Leesburg, Lansdowne, Poolesville, Countryside, Purcellville, Belmont, Hamilton, Barnesville, Paeonian Springs, Waterford, Lucketts, Dickerson, and Beallsville. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Remain alert for a possible tornado! Tornadoes can develop quickly from severe thunderstorms. If you spot a tornado go at once into the basement or small central room in a sturdy structure. For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. && LAT...LON 3924 7737 3905 7741 3914 7771 3922 7768 3923 7747 3922 7746 3924 7742 TIME...MOT...LOC 2222Z 276DEG 15KT 3916 7765 TORNADO...POSSIBLE HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH
  14. yoda
    Just got SVR warned with TOR possible tag... its trying to hook
  15. yoda
    @WxUSAF must be enjoying the rain
  16. yoda
    Radarscope has a TVS sig near Capon Bridge, WV
  17. yoda
    Storms forming in NW Fairfax
  18. yoda
    There's another supercell i think to its NE that is warned... I think thats our "game"
  19. yoda
    Looks like the tornadic cell in WV is trying to recycle
  20. yoda
  21. yoda
    Radarscope from LWX is picking up 65dbz from the tornadic WV cell... dang
  22. yoda
    I know this MCD is more to our east... but note the disco... bolded mine Mesoscale Discussion 1697 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026 Areas affected...eastern Virginia into the DelMarVa Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 509... Valid 212043Z - 212215Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 509 continues. SUMMARY...The severe weather threat will continue through the afternoon and into the evening. DISCUSSION...Storms across Virginia and into the DelMarVa have mostly lacked structure thus far with only occasional stronger multi-cell storms. As height falls overspread the area this evening, expect more robust convection with a greater damaging wind threat and an eventual line of storms along or ahead of the cold front, advances east. In addition, strengthening mid-level and low-level flow will assist in storm organization, further supporting the threat. ..Bentley.. 07/21/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RNK... LAT...LON 36648039 37457909 38317774 38907701 39477640 39497553 39107487 38507479 37967507 37297548 36677596 36648039 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
  23. yoda
    BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 444 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Anne Arundel County in central Maryland... Northwestern Calvert County in southern Maryland... East central Prince Georges County in central Maryland... * Until 515 PM EDT. * At 444 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Upper Marlboro, moving northeast at 45 mph. HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... Bowie, Severn, Annapolis, Crofton, Mayo, Shady Side, Deale, Naval Academy, Upper Marlboro, Severn River, South River, Sillery Bay, Rhode River, Magothy River, Dobbins Island, Glen Burnie, Severna Park, Odenton, Pasadena, and Arnold. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. Large hail, damaging wind, and continuous cloud to ground lightning are occurring with this storm. Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature`s leading killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. && LAT...LON 3900 7638 3896 7645 3880 7649 3879 7649 3878 7651 3869 7670 3880 7682 3917 7665 3907 7642 3906 7642 3901 7637 TIME...MOT...LOC 2044Z 219DEG 39KT 3885 7671 THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX WIND GUST...70 MPH
  24. yoda
    Garrett County severe warned with tornado possible tag
  25. yoda
    Storm entering Garrett County in about 30 minutes just got TWd... big rotation SW of Morgantown
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