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yoda

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  1. yoda
    That was fast... watch up until 8pm
  2. yoda
    https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0801.html Mesoscale Discussion 0801 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 Areas affected...portions of the Mid-Atlantic Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely Valid 201623Z - 201800Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Widely scattered thunderstorms will pose a risk for damaging wind gusts and isolated large hail this afternoon and evening. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch will be needed soon. DISCUSSION...Latest surface observations depict a cold front extending from central New York southwestward through north-central and western Pennsylvania into southeast Ohio. Ahead of this cold front, temperatures are warming into the 90s across portions of the Mid-Atlantic, with surface dewpoints in the low/mid 60s F. Continued heating of this air mass is supporting 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE, with further destabilization anticipated through the afternoon hours. Recent satellite/radar imagery has shown increasing convective coverage ahead of the aforementioned cold front as remaining inhibition is eroded. With stronger mid/upper-level flow remaining displaced to the northwest, only modest effective shear is analyzed across the region (generally 20-30+ kts per latest mesoanalysis). This will be sufficient to support updraft organization with multicells, and perhaps marginal supercells, likely. Steep low-level lapse rates, well-mixed boundary layer profiles, and surface dewpoint depressions exceeding 20-25 F will promote the potential for damaging wind gusts, particularly with any more organized clusters that develop. Isolated instances of large hail may also accompany any more robust updrafts despite weak mid-level lapse rates (as sampled by the 12z PIT/IAD observed soundings). A Severe Thunderstorm Watch will be needed soon. ..Chalmers/Hart.. 05/20/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX... LAT...LON 40687798 40987676 40987614 40907587 40747568 40397553 39967560 39437589 39147621 38927665 38687793 38597862 38587907 38767959 39117993 39388003 39737992 40107959 40247926 40687798 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
  3. yoda
    STW coming soon for majority of LWX CWA
  4. yoda
    81 DCA 83 IAD 87 BWI 10am obs
  5. yoda
    Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0730 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 Valid 201300Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...AND PARTS OF WEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe/damaging winds and isolated hail will be possible with thunderstorms from the central Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England this afternoon and evening. Severe thunderstorms with large hail and isolated severe gusts may also occur today across parts of west/south-central Texas. ...Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic and Southern New England... On the southern fringe of upper troughing over eastern Canada and the Great Lakes, a weak/convectively augmented mid-level shortwave trough will progress northeastward across the OH Valley and central Appalachians through the day, eventually reaching the Mid-Atlantic tonight. Robust daytime heating of a modestly moist low-level airmass (surface dewpoints generally in the low to mid 60s) ahead of a surface cold front will aid in the development of moderate instability by early afternoon. Ongoing convection across OH/KY this morning may eventually strengthen as it encounters this destabilizing airmass, and additional thunderstorms are expected to develop along/near the cold front by mid afternoon from the central Appalachians into portions of the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England. Stronger flow aloft will tend to lag/remain north of the cold front, but modest enhancement to the west-southwesterly mid-level flow along/near the front should support around 20-30 kt of deep-layer shear. This will be sufficient for some updraft organization with mainly multicells expected, although marginal supercell structures may occur. Low-level lapse rates are expected to become quite steep through the day, evidenced by a general lack of clouds on recent visible satellite imagery from central/eastern WV into the Mid-Atlantic. This will likely aid efficient downward momentum transfer in convective downdrafts, with scattered severe/damaging winds possible as multiple clusters spread east-northeastward through the afternoon/evening. Isolated hail may also occur with the stronger cores. A Slight Risk for severe/damaging winds has been introduced from parts of WV to southern New England given increased confidence in multiple clusters traversing a narrow zone along/ahead of the front.
  6. yoda
    Good call
  7. yoda
    LWX seems to think we get a STWatch today. They mentioned it in their AFD... haven't seen them do that much before
  8. yoda
    BWI 97
  9. yoda
    1pm obs 92 DCA 93 IAD 95 BWI West winds reported at IAD and BWI, south winds at DCA
  10. yoda
    Add today to the list?
  11. yoda
    LWX doesn't seem to be buying it
  12. yoda
    Wednesday afternoon up in the air per morning AFD from LWX A strong area of low pressure moves through the Northeast on Wednesday, with a cold front extending down the East Coast that will bring widespread rain and thunderstorm chances to the Mid-Atlantic in the afternoon/evening. While the center low will be well north of us, the timing of the front aligning with the diurnal cycle and the high temperatures seen at the start of the week could still contribute towards some thunderstorm development in the region. Potential severity at this time still ranges widely--NCAR`s AI NWP Convective Hazards Forecast currently has our region outlined in its 45%-60% probability for severe weather to occur, while CSU`s medium- range probabilities ranks the severe threat much lower. Regardless, this front will likely result in widespread showers at a minimum as well as a sharp drop in temperatures seen later in the week. Highs on Thursday will range in the upper 60s and low 70s, a marked shift from the mid-90s expected earlier in the week. Lingering rain showers may still be moving out of the area by Thursday morning, while a meandering front to the south could bring a few additional rain showers on Friday.
  13. yoda
    MRGL up out to the NW of the i95 corridor
  14. yoda
    And then in a few months when its 90 degrees at 10am we will be complaining for this type of weather
  15. yoda
    Looks like Wednesday, maybe Thursday for a chance of some severe? Nothing huge of course... just the risk for it
  16. yoda
    I'm still mourning the loss of the DGEX... a real OG
  17. yoda
    So now what do we say when the RRFS crushes us with wind?
  18. yoda
    Does this include the 3k NAM or just the parent NAM?
  19. yoda
    Getting lucky i guess... Light rain here at work
  20. yoda
    Wizards have the #1 pick in the draft
  21. yoda
    Good call in a sense... MRGL risk added for parts of the area
  22. yoda
    Blowing dust? BLOWING DUST ADVISORY NWS CHICAGO IL 259 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2026 ILZ019>021-023-032-033-039-107-108-INZ001-002-010-011-019-042300- /O.NEW.KLOT.DU.Y.0001.260504T1600Z-260504T2300Z/ 1100 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2026 La Salle IL-Kendall IL-Grundy IL-Kankakee IL-Livingston IL-Iroquois IL-Ford IL-Southern Will IL-Eastern Will IL-Lake IN-Porter IN-Newton IN-Jasper IN-Benton IN- ...BLOWING DUST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING... * WHAT...Visibility as low as a quarter mile in blowing dust, particularly in open agricultural areas. * WHERE...Portions of central, east central, north central, and northeast Illinois and northwest Indiana. * WHEN...From 11 AM CDT this morning to 6 PM CDT this evening. * IMPACTS...Hazardous driving conditions due to reduced visibility. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Visibility could vary rapidly over short distances, slow down and exercise caution driving in open areas this afternoon. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Persons with respiratory problems should make preparations to stay indoors until the storm passes. Be ready for a sudden drop in visibility to near zero. If you encounter blowing dust or blowing sand on the roadway or see it approaching, pull off the road as far as possible and put your vehicle in park. Turn the lights all the way off and keep foot off the brake pedal. Remember, 'Pull Aside, Stay Alive'.
  23. yoda
    Didn't realize the forecasted high temperature for Tuesday is now the mid 80s
  24. yoda
    URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1207 PM EDT Sat May 2 2026 MDZ003>006-507-VAZ028>031-036>040-050-051-501-505-WVZ051>053-030015- /O.NEW.KLWX.FR.Y.0004.260503T0600Z-260503T1300Z/ Washington-Frederick-Carroll-Northern Baltimore-Northwest Harford- Frederick-Page-Warren-Clarke-Nelson-Albemarle-Greene-Madison- Rappahannock-Orange-Culpeper-Northern Fauquier-Western Loudoun- Morgan-Berkeley-Jefferson- 1207 PM EDT Sat May 2 2026 ...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY... * WHAT...Temperatures as low as 33 to 36 degrees will result in frost formation. * WHERE...Portions of north central and northern Maryland, central, northern, and northwest Virginia, and panhandle West Virginia. * WHEN...From 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Sunday. * IMPACTS...Frost could harm sensitive outdoor vegetation. Sensitive outdoor plants may be killed if left uncovered.
  25. yoda
    URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1207 PM EDT Sat May 2 2026 MDZ502-VAZ025>027-507-508-WVZ050-055-502-504-030015- /O.NEW.KLWX.FZ.W.0005.260503T0600Z-260503T1300Z/ Central and Eastern Allegany-Augusta-Rockingham-Shenandoah- Northern Virginia Blue Ridge-Central Virginia Blue Ridge- Hampshire-Hardy-Eastern Grant-Eastern Mineral- 1207 PM EDT Sat May 2 2026 ...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY... * WHAT...Sub-freezing temperatures as low as 30 degrees expected. * WHERE...In Maryland, Central and Eastern Allegany County. In Virginia, Central Virginia Blue Ridge, Northern Virginia Blue Ridge, Shenandoah, Augusta, and Rockingham Counties. In West Virginia, Eastern Grant, Eastern Mineral, Hampshire, and Hardy Counties. * WHEN...From 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Sunday. * IMPACTS...Frost and freeze conditions could kill crops, other sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor plumbing. URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1207 PM EDT Sat May 2 2026 MDZ501-509-510-VAZ503-504-WVZ501-503-505-506-030015- /O.UPG.KLWX.FZ.A.0004.260503T0600Z-260503T1300Z/ /O.NEW.KLWX.FZ.W.0005.260503T0600Z-260503T1300Z/ Extreme Western Allegany-Western Garrett-Eastern Garrett-Western Highland-Eastern Highland-Western Grant-Western Mineral-Western Pendleton-Eastern Pendleton- 1207 PM EDT Sat May 2 2026 ...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY... * WHAT...Sub-freezing temperatures as low as 28 degrees expected. * WHERE...In Maryland, Eastern Garrett, Extreme Western Allegany, and Western Garrett Counties. In Virginia, Eastern Highland and Western Highland Counties. In West Virginia, Eastern Pendleton, Western Grant, Western Mineral, and Western Pendleton Counties. * WHEN...From 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Sunday. * IMPACTS...Frost and freeze conditions could kill crops, other sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor plumbing.
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