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yoda

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  1. yoda
    Fwiw, Radarscope is tagging max hail of 3.5"
  2. yoda
    FDK storm really needs a TW...
  3. yoda
    FDK cell may need a TW soon... 70mph winds and tornado possible tag in it in latest SWS
  4. yoda
    Another MCD for C into S VA into NC with STWatch needed soon in it... I guess we will get lumped into that Mesoscale Discussion 1649 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026 Areas affected...ortions of southern Virginia...western North Carolina...far northeast Tennessee...southeastern West Virginia Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 181756Z - 181900Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will continue to increase in intensity this afternoon with a risk for damaging wind gusts. Trends are being monitored and a Severe Thunderstorm Watch is likely. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms continue to develop across the higher terrain of WV, NC and VA at 1755z, and also along a confluence zone extending from northern VA into western NC. Despite weak mid-level lapse rates, diurnal heating of a moist boundary layer has contributed to MLCAPE of 2000 to 3000 J/kg and low-level lapse rates of 8.5 to 9 deg/C. In the presence of minimal CINH, storms should continue to increase in coverage through the afternoon and move generally east. Shear in the cloud-bearing layer will average 20-25 kts across northern portions of the discussion area and 15-20 kts farther south, sufficient for updraft organization and a risk for damaging wind gusts. Trends are being monitored and a Severe Thunderstorm Watch will be needed shortly. ..Bunting/Thompson.. 07/18/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX... LAT...LON 36938187 37458132 37957998 38207909 38197842 37907734 37557681 36927645 36077666 35487802 35237929 35118087 35298160 35678207 36228209 36938187 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
  5. yoda
  6. yoda
    Just appeared to in like last 5 minutes if you put radar in motion
  7. yoda
    DPs are in the 75-80 range across the region as temperatures rise into the low 90s
  8. yoda
    Yes, agree. The watch that just came out from them goes into E PA which was a bit surprising to me considering the new watch box for our area would seem to go overtop that... I guess your idea would work. The watch to our north in PA covers like half our MCD lol
  9. yoda
    https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1648.html Mesoscale Discussion 1648 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 AM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026 Areas affected...portions of southern Pennsylvania...eastern West Virginia...northern Virginia...much of Maryland...Delaware...southern New Jersey Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 181650Z - 181815Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage and intensity through early-mid afternoon. Damaging winds will be the primary concern as storms evolve into eastward-moving clusters and line segments. A watch is likely prior to 18z. DISCUSSION...Strong boundary-layer heating of a very moist air mass is ongoing across the discussion area as of 1645z, contributing to moderate/pockets of strong surface-based instability. Thunderstorms will continue to increase in coverage across the higher terrain, and along a north-south confluence zone across southern PA south into northern VA, during the next few hours. As coverage continues to increase and low-level lapse rates steepen, the potential for damaging gusts will increase across the discussion area this afternoon and early evening. Additionally, low-level shear will remain locally enhanced in the vicinity of a warm front across southeast PA/southern NJ. Deep-layer shear will be supportive of supercell structures, and the risk for tornadoes, potentially strong, will be maximized in this area. Convective trends will continue to be monitored, and a watch is likely prior to 18z. ..Bunting/Thompson.. 07/18/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...PBZ... LAT...LON 39077931 40007859 40547698 40477526 40267451 39987411 39137439 38627538 38437699 38487839 38647934 39077931 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
  10. yoda
    Sounds like leaning towards Tornado Watch
  11. yoda
    TW up from CTP on a storm moving ESE... would be near HGR in a few hours
  12. yoda
    @high risk could there be some differential heating boundaries later? I'm assuming that with the rain/storms in PA, the WF will not push as far north and increase risk for a few tornadoes?
  13. yoda
    Should be getting a MCD soon, probably in next hour
  14. yoda
    S winds being reported on the 11am obs up to BWI... 84/75 S at 9 at DCA... C VA like CHO, Culpepper, EZF already upper 80s
  15. yoda
    Its "sunny" here in Springfield... just you can't tell with the smoky haze
  16. yoda
    12z IAD sounding
  17. yoda
    Flood Watch National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 923 AM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026 .A slow-moving front will interact with a very humid airmass in place to result in multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. MDZ501-502-509-510-WVZ503-504-182130- /O.NEW.KLWX.FA.A.0009.260718T1600Z-260719T0600Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Extreme Western Allegany-Central and Eastern Allegany-Western Garrett-Eastern Garrett-Western Mineral-Eastern Mineral- 923 AM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY THROUGH 2 AM EDT LATE TONIGHT... * WHAT...Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible. * WHERE...Allegany and Garrett Counties in Maryland, and Mineral County in West Virginia. * WHEN...From noon today through 2 AM EDT late tonight. * IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Creeks and streams may rise out of their banks. Low-water crossings may be flooded. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - High humidity coupled with a slow-moving front is expected to result in multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Localized rainfall rates of up to 2 inches per hour, with isolated totals of 3 to 6 inches are possible. - Please visit www.weather.gov/safety/flood for flood safety and preparedness information. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.
  18. yoda
    That's from 7am lol
  19. yoda
    Looks like @CAPE got a flush hit
  20. yoda
    SPC also went 5% tor for areas NE of a line from basically HGR to DC... and CIG 1 for extreme NE MD into SE PA/NJ with mention of a few strong tornadoes
  21. yoda
    Which is a bit confusing... because if let's say on the 1300z SPC OTLK, 60 wind with no CIG is introduced... its still ENH risk. But if a CIG 1 is introduced with the 60 wind, it becomes a moderate risk per the conversion table
  22. yoda
    Oh ok SPC, I see... Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST...MID ATLANTIC AND LOWER GREAT LAKES.... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, this afternoon into the evening. Some threat may linger into late tonight. ...OH valley and Great Lakes to the Mid Atlantic and Northeast... An unseasonably strong upper trough is forecast to move from southern ON into the northeast US through early Sunday. As the trough intensifies, a 60+ kt mid-level jet will overspread portions of eastern Canada and the Northeast, aiding in deepening a surface low across the eastern St Lawrence Valley. Strong surface mass response will lift a warm front northward across eastern NY and southern New England. South of the boundary, a very moist air mass will be in place ahead of a cold front over the OH Valley and Great Lakes. A rather broad area, is expected to be conducive for numerous strong to severe storms with the potential for widespread damaging winds over the Northeastern US today and tonight. One or more clusters of showers/thunderstorms appears likely to be ongoing at the start of the period from central PA and southern NY into eastern ON as isentropic ascent increases along the advancing warm front. The impact of this overnight/early morning convection is somewhat uncertain, but most guidance shows substantial air mass recovery in its wake by midday with dewpoints in the mid 70s across much of the Mid Atlantic. Given the degree of moisture and minimal inhibition present, even modest diurnal heating should support rapid destabilization with MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg common by early afternoon. Several different forcing regimes are expected to be active which makes the convective evolution highly uncertain. The early morning storms near the advancing warm front in PA could re-intensify as the air mass to their south and east gradually destabilizes. This would favor an increasing risk for damaging gusts. 35-45 kt of deep-layer shear could also support some supercell structures. A couple of tornadoes (some possibly strong) may occur, given favorable backed low-level flow and ESRH of 200-300 m2/s2 near the front from southeastern PA, into NJ and southern NY. Additional storms are likely to develop along a pre-frontal confluence axis/lee trough east of the higher terrain from southern PA into eastern MD and northern VA to northern NC. Large buoyancy and deep-layer shear of 30-40 kt would favor a mixed mode of line segments and supercells. These storms should move eastward toward DelMarVa and the I-95 Corridor by early afternoon. RAP/HRRR soundings show 40-50 kt of flow aloft as the upper trough and jet streak move overhead. Regardless of storm mode, the high PWAT content (2-2.5 inches) should foster strong downdrafts and momentum transfer to the surface. Widespread damaging gusts are likely from northeast VA, eastern MD, into southeast PA and NJ. Higher wind probabilities (60%) may be needed if confidence in a more linear/cluster storm mode develops. To the west, ahead of the cold front, a broken band of cells and clusters is likely from NY/VT to the Lower Great Lakes. The strongest vertical shear should reside across upstate NY into northwest PA and northeast OH, where a few supercells are possible. While farther west, strongly veered surface flow should result in more linear storm modes. Multiple wind-damage swaths may accompany these storms, along with some potential for isolated hail. 70s F surface dewpoints and enhanced low-level SRH could also support a tornado threat with any discrete or embedded supercells, especially closer to the surface low and near the effective warm frontal zone where low-level shear is more favorable.
  23. yoda
    Yes, @MN Transplant posted the LWX statement this morning in his "our regions extreme run" thread
  24. yoda
    Hey Rockingham county, could you share your storms? Thanks
  25. yoda
    @high risk @wxmeddler @Eskimo Joe Can smoke lay boundaries? I know Eskimo mentioned it in his post above... but is it something that we should be watching tomorrow morning? Also, doesn't the smoke act like a pseudo cap or EML in a sense in that it keeps the atmosphere from CI? Finally, wouldn't it also keep the moisture (dewpoints) up?
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