yoda

Morning AFD from LWX already mentioning PRE potential .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... The cold front looks to sit just east of the Chesapeake Bay Friday morning. A few lingering showers may be possible for areas east of I- 95 and down across southern MD and the northern neck of VA. Clouds will gradually thin with filtered breaks of sunshine, especially later in the day and in areas mainly north of I-66/US-50. The front itself will continue toward the Delmarva coast before stalling into the upcoming weekend. With the frontal zone nearby expect continued scattered shower chances in areas south of I-66 (central VA Piedmont) Friday afternoon into Friday evening. High temperatures Friday will push back into the upper 70s and low 80s (upper 60s and low 70s mountains). Overnight lows Friday night will fall back into mid to upper 50s west of I-81 with low to mid 60s further east. Surface high pressure tries to build back into the region from the Great Lakes and Ohio River Valley. Meanwhile, a stalled frontal boundary will remain in the vicinity of the lower Delmarva coast and Carolinas with an upper level low pressure system cutoff within the mean flow over the southern Appalachians. In addition to this Tropical Storm Humberto will continue further north toward the Bahamas and southeast U.S coast late Saturday into Sunday. The interaction amongst all these surface/upper level features could lead to a pseudo PRE event across portions of the Mid-Atlantic region as early as Saturday night into Sunday morning. Lots of uncertainty remains in regards to where this event will occur given the interaction and overall placement of the aforementioned features above. The dynamics are there though given the approaching upper level trough and surface cold front, low pressure to the south, and influx of tropical moisture along the stalled boundary at the coast. Something that will have to continue to monitor in the coming days ahead. Either way if this were to occur we could be looking at drought busting rainfall for much of the region to round the weekend into early next. Highs Saturday will range from the mid to upper 70s over central and northeast MD to mid 60s and low 70s over the mountains/Shenadoah Valley. Lows Saturday night will fall back into the upper 50s and low 60s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... UL troughing and an associated cut-off ULL over the southern Appalachians will meander over the same general area through much of the long term. For Sunday, rather interesting set up with some model guidance and ensemble suites starting to hint at a pseudo PRE event with heavy rain in the Mid-Atlantic. Lots of uncertainties wrt placement and actual occurrence, but dynamics are there: approaching trough and sfc cold front with UL right entrance of jet streak, some MUCAPE with low-level stability, and near record PWs. Depending on timing may start before sunrise Sunday, and go into Monday, but something to keep an eye on. Thereafter, attention turns to the tropics and how Tropical Storm Humberto interacts with invest 94L and the trough across the eastern CONUS. Lots of uncertainties and NHC has the latest official forecast at hurricanes.gov. Temperatures will be in the 70s each day with higher elevations staying in the 60s. Overnight temperatures will be in the 60s for those east of the Blue Ridge and 50s for those along and west.

Chance of maybe an isolated spinner today? Morning AFD from LWX The first wave of showers and thunderstorms look to exit mid to late morning allowing the atmosphere to reload for the afternoon and evening ahead. Some uncertainty remains into how much clearing that we do see given the morning activity and incumbent trough/surface cold front nearby. Even with that said, the added lifting mechanism of the trough/front and leading shortwave energy should aid in higher convective chances this afternoon. The Storm Prediction Center has a Marginal Risk (Level 1 out of 5) for severe weather today east of the Allegheny Mountains. The main threat is damaging winds and heavy rainfall with a secondary threat of an isolated tornado. CAPE values look to sit between 1000-2000 j/kg with deep layer shear around 40 to 50 kts. This should lead to some organization if storms are to materialize (i.e line segments or even a supercell or two). The NAM3km/NSSL/ARW remain the aggressors when it comes to curved hodographs with 0-1 SRH values up around 200-250 m2/s2. The RAP/HRRR show less values and less of a curved signature. With that said, the tornado threat would remain isolated (i.e via supercell or most likely in a QLCS type of scenario) with a focus east of US-15. Greatest concern for severe weather if it were to occur would be between 4-8pm as the front crosses. Once again the threat will be highly dependent upon cloud cover and how quickly things can reload after this morning`s rainfall. Afternoon high`s will reach into the upper 70s and low 80s (upper 60s and low 70s mountains).

3 straight days of MRGL per SPC... today through Thursday

560 WTNT42 KNHC 182053 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Gabrielle Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 500 PM AST Thu Sep 18 2025 Gabrielle continues to fight off strong westerly vertical wind shear and significant dry air entrainment this afternoon. Some thunderstorms have blossomed on the storm's eastern flank, which is an improvement from its naked low-level swirl earlier this morning. The initial intensity is held at 45 kt based on recent scatterometer data of at least 40 kt and little in the way of change to its structure from earlier this morning. Atmospheric conditions are expected to remain hostile for another day or so, meaning Gabrielle is likely maintain its current intensity or weaken slightly during that time. Recent 12Z guidance indicates vertical wind shear relaxes and an increasingly moist vertical profile should foster a much improved environment for strengthening this weekend, with the GFS model trending toward the more conducive ECMWF solution. As a result, intensity guidance is notable higher on this cycle. The NHC intensity forecast is raised from the previous one, but not as high as the model consensus mostly due to continuity. There are a growing number of hurricane models that are indicating Gabrielle could approach major hurricane strength after the weekend. Gabrielle is moving west-northwestward at 13 kt and should maintain this track with a bend toward the northwest over the next few days as the storm is steered primarily by a subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic. A turn toward the north and northeast is forecast to occur late this weekend and early next week when Gabrielle rounds the western periphery of the ridge and a frontal system approaches from the west. While the guidance envelope has shrunk on this forecast cycle, there are some significant speed differences, with the ECMWF/GFS models considerably faster than the Google Deep Mind ensemble. Although no significant changes to the forecast were made, confidence remains on the lower side given the along-track model spread and an unclear intensity forecast beyond 48 hours. Interests in Bermuda should continue to monitor Gabrielle over the next several days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/2100Z 20.8N 52.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 19/0600Z 21.5N 54.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 19/1800Z 22.6N 56.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 20/0600Z 23.9N 58.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 20/1800Z 25.3N 59.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 21/0600Z 27.1N 61.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 21/1800Z 29.0N 62.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 22/1800Z 33.0N 61.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 23/1800Z 39.0N 52.5W 80 KT 90 MPH

Impossible. The desert is so dry there

Tropical Storm Gabrielle Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 17 2025 Satellite imagery this morning indicates that the large system is not well-organized, with an elongated circulation oriented from north-northwest to south-southeast containing a few embedded swirls. The advisory center is a mean center of those swirls, with any associated convection well east of the position due to southwesterly shear. While it wouldn't appear so from conventional satellite data, a recent scatterometer pass indicates upwards of 40-kt winds present, generally northeast and southeast of the center of circulation. Although the system is at best marginally well defined, there is enough data to support an initial intensity of 40 kt, and the depression is named Gabrielle. Little strengthening is anticipated over the next 48 hours as Gabrielle faces an unfavorable shear environment from an upper-level trough and a possible center re-formation, and the forecast intensity remains nearly steady through Friday. By this weekend, a more conducive environment is anticipated, which should allow for gradual intensification. Gabrielle is forecast to become a hurricane by 96 hours. The NHC intensity forecast remains fairly similar to the previous forecast cycle, but it should be noted that there remains considerable spread in the solutions and overall forecast intensity confidence is low. Gabrielle is well away from land and about midway between the Cabo Verde Islands and the Windward Islands. The current estimated motion is north-northwestward, but this is highly uncertain as the center could be re-forming to the north. The system is forecast to move northwestward to west-northwestward due to the subtropical ridge for the next several days. While the forecast has been adjusted to the north from the previous one, this is almost exclusively due to the jump in the initial position. This is a highly uncertain forecast until a better defined center forms. Based on the recent trends, this system should pass well east and north of the Windward and Leeward Islands, but interests in Bermuda should monitor forecasts during the next several days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/1500Z 17.5N 46.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 18/0000Z 19.5N 48.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 18/1200Z 20.8N 50.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 19/0000Z 21.8N 52.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 19/1200Z 22.7N 54.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 20/0000Z 23.5N 56.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 20/1200Z 24.7N 58.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 21/1200Z 27.4N 60.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 22/1200Z 30.0N 62.5W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Taylor/Blake

BULLETIN Tropical Storm Gabrielle Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 17 2025 ...GABRIELLE FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC... ...FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER OPEN WATERS FOR SEVERAL DAYS... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.5N 46.6W ABOUT 1085 MI...1745 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of poorly defined Tropical Storm Gabrielle was located near latitude 17.5 North, longitude 46.6 West. Gabrielle is moving toward the north-northwest near 22 mph (35 km/h). An erratic northwestward to west-northwestward motion at a reduced forward speed is anticipated across the tropical and subtropical central Atlantic during the next few days. Satellite-derived winds indicate that the maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours but some gradual intensification is forecast over the weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center, primarily in the eastern semicircle of the storm. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).

@CAPE https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/46245106/ravens-planned-take-shedeur-sanders-draft-sources-say Would have been interesting to see

What TS? Mario die lol

Good, because we need the rain. A nice, rainy day in the 70s is fine with me. Hope we can all get near an inch at least

Offense is missing... but they are playing a real team this week

Sorry not sorry Ravens fans

Ravens fans got to be going nuts and breathing heavy lol

Nice Commanders win today

https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1964683857149493603

https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1964658176609116561

60mph gust reported at 5pm at DCA

Sounds like LWX radar will be down for a bit... going to have to use IAD close in or DOX NOUS61 KLWX 062156 FTMLWX MESSAGE DATE: SEP 6 2025 21:55 UTC LWX WSR-88D IS OUT OF SERVICE DUE TO A PEDESTAL ISSUE. TECHNICIANS HAVE BEEN NOTIFIED. $$ KR

Trying again near Nokesville/Bristow area?

Intrigued near Warrenton

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 607 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 110 PM EDT Sat Sep 6 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Connecticut Delaware Massachusetts Northeast Maryland Western and Central Maine Southern New Hampshire New Jersey Southeast New York Eastern Pennsylvania Rhode Island Southeast Vermont Coastal Waters * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 110 PM until 800 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are beginning to develop along a boundary from central Maryland northeastward into parts of New York/Vermont. These storms will intensify through the afternoon, with locally severe storms expected. Damaging winds will be the main risk with the stronger cells, although a few could also produce hail and perhaps a tornado or two. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 45 miles west of Wilmington DE to 25 miles east of Bangor ME. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

One of the largest watches I've seen before from SPC... from MD to ME

https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1963980757417799798

https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1963994545768608055

Afternoon day 3 update from SPC mentions potential upgrade to SLGT risk depending on destabilization - currently MRGL risk