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yoda

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  1. yoda
    Tagged day 4... mentioned again on days 7 and 8 ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 110852 SPC AC 110852 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026 Valid 141200Z - 191200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Sunday... The 00z models have trended toward a much stronger short-wave trough and associated mid-level jet, which will progress from the Great Lakes and OH Valley into the Northeast. Elsewhere, a short-wave trough is forecast to move from the northern Rockies into the central Plains. At the surface, a cold front attendant to the Northeast short-wave trough will move through that region with the trailing extension of the boundary pushing south through the OH and TN Valleys into the Gulf Coast states. A much stronger low-level jet is now forecast ahead of the cold front across the Northeast, which will aid in greater air mass destabilization than indicated in previous model runs. When coupled with notably stronger vertical shear, the setup appears favorable for organized severe storms across the Mid-Atlantic, potentially into southern New England Sunday afternoon and evening. ...Day 5/Monday... The models suggest the Sunday/central Plains short-wave trough will progress through the mid MS into OH Valleys with an associated belt of enhanced mid-level flow stretching from the central Plains into Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, there is good model agreement that the primary synoptic front and associated warm sector will lie across TX and the Gulf Coast states, to the south of the stronger mid-level winds and forcing for ascent. Some severe-weather threat may develop along and south of the front; however, the marginal vertical shear is expected to limit the overall severe-weather threat. Slightly stronger vertical shear is forecast across the central and southern High Plains, due to an easterly upslope regime in the low-levels. While the potential for more organized storms will exist in that region, severe-weather coverage may only be isolated. ...Day 6/Tuesday... The ensemble mean and deterministic models are suggestive that a mid-level disturbance will track from the central Plains into the lower OH and TN Valleys, contributing to overall amplification of the long-wave trough in place east of the Rockies. The primary surface front is expected to remain in place across the Gulf Coast states, to the immediate south of the stronger forcing for ascent and mid-level flow. While isolated occurrences of severe weather appear possible from the southern High Plains into Southeast, the potential for an organized severe-weather event remains in question. ...Days 7-8/Wednesday and Thursday... The ensemble means indicate the progression of a strong mid-level jet streak into the northern and central Plains Wednesday with that feature moving through the OH Valley into Mid-Atlantic Thursday. At the surface, the ensemble member low positions indicate clustering across the northern Plains and upper MS Valley Wednesday, and across the Great Lakes into Ontario on Thursday. The rapid poleward return of a moist and unstable air mass is expected to occur ahead of the surface low and associated frontal system. As such, some severe weather appears possible across parts of the Midwest Wednesday, and perhaps OH Valley into Mid-Atlantic Thursday. ..Mead.. 06/11/2026
  2. yoda
    URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 224 AM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026 DCZ001-MDZ008-011-013-014-016>018-508-VAZ054-057-111430- /O.NEW.KLWX.HT.Y.0001.260611T1500Z-260612T0000Z/ District of Columbia-Cecil-Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-Charles-St. Marys-Calvert-Southeast Harford- Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-King George- 224 AM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026 ...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING... * WHAT...Heat index values up to 105 expected. * WHERE...Areas near and east of the Interstate 95 corridor from northeast to southern Maryland and the northern neck of Virginia, including Baltimore MD and Washington DC. * WHEN...From 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening. * IMPACTS...Hot temperatures and high humidity may cause heat illnesses. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Drink plenty of fluids, stay in an air-conditioned room, stay out of the sun, and check up on relatives and neighbors. Take extra precautions when outside. Wear lightweight and loose fitting clothing. Try to limit strenuous activities to early morning or evening. Take action when you see symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat stroke. To reduce risk during outdoor work, the Occupational Safety and Health Administration recommends scheduling frequent rest breaks in shaded or air conditioned environments. Anyone overcome by heat should be moved to a cool and shaded location. Heat stroke is an emergency! In cases of heat stroke, call 9 1 1.
  3. yoda
    Been a while that we have had 2 30 wind forecast days back to back from SPC... today and tomorrow Today Tomorrow
  4. yoda
    Hmmm (afternoon Day 3 update)
  5. yoda
    Friday maybe? From Day 4-8 SPC OTLK ..Day 5/Friday... A number of the 00z models progress a lower-latitude short-wave trough through the upper OH Valley and lower Great Lakes, which is a departure from previous model runs. That scenario would increase severe-weather potential across those areas into New England, and perhaps the Mid-Atlantic, given the potential for a moderately unstable air mass across the pre-frontal warm sector. Should subsequent model runs remain consistent with this recent trend, an unconditional 15% probability contour may be needed in the next forecast update. Elsewhere, Isolated severe storms appear possible across portions of the southern High Plains.
  6. yoda
    Storms back in OH are moving more SErly... I'm assuming those wont make it here at all? I see a new watchbox out there
  7. yoda
    Some storms trying to get going in the SW flank down towards Front Royal... probably wont survive... but its the best chance for DC metro to get anything
  8. yoda
    Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 525 PM EDT Sat Jun 6 2026 MDC013-021-043-WVC003-037-062215- /O.CON.KLWX.SV.W.0075.000000T0000Z-260606T2215Z/ Washington MD-Carroll MD-Frederick MD-Jefferson WV-Berkeley WV- 525 PM EDT Sat Jun 6 2026 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 PM EDT FOR NORTHEASTERN WASHINGTON...NORTHWESTERN CARROLL AND FREDERICK COUNTIES IN NORTH CENTRAL MARYLAND...NORTH CENTRAL JEFFERSON AND EASTERN BERKELEY COUNTIES IN THE PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA... At 525 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from Carroll Valley to near Smithsburg to near Boonsboro, moving east at 40 mph. HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. Locations impacted include... Frederick, Hagerstown, Thurmont, Emmitsburg, Municipal Stadium, Harry Grove Stadium, Ballenger Creek, Robinwood, Taneytown, Walkersville, Boonsboro, Smithsburg, Braddock Heights, Paramount-Long Meadow, Mount Aetna, Mount Lena, San Mar, Clover Hill, Discovery-Spring Garden, and Wolfsville. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. && LAT...LON 3966 7700 3937 7734 3946 7789 3972 7764 3972 7696 TIME...MOT...LOC 2125Z 267DEG 36KT 3977 7739 3964 7751 3950 7772 THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX WIND GUST...70 MPH
  9. yoda
    evere Weather Statement National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 456 PM EDT Sat Jun 6 2026 MDC021-043-VAC069-WVC003-027-037-065-062115- /O.CON.KLWX.SV.W.0074.000000T0000Z-260606T2115Z/ Washington MD-Frederick MD-Frederick VA-Jefferson WV-Morgan WV- Berkeley WV-Hampshire WV- 456 PM EDT Sat Jun 6 2026 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM EDT FOR WASHINGTON AND NORTHWESTERN FREDERICK COUNTIES IN NORTH CENTRAL MARYLAND...NORTH CENTRAL FREDERICK COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN VIRGINIA... CENTRAL JEFFERSON...CENTRAL MORGAN...BERKELEY COUNTIES IN THE PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA AND NORTHEASTERN HAMPSHIRE COUNTIES IN EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA... At 455 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from near Greencastle to near Martinsburg to near Greenwood, moving east at 50 mph. HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. Locations impacted include... Hagerstown, Martinsburg, Thurmont, Charles Town, Emmitsburg, Shepherdstown, Municipal Stadium, Greenwood, Robinwood, Fountainhead-Orchard Hills, Ranson, Boonsboro, Smithsburg, Inwood, Paramount-Long Meadow, Wilson-Conococheague, Williamsport, Mount Aetna, Mount Lena, and San Mar. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. && LAT...LON 3956 7737 3928 7779 3940 7843 3972 7812 3972 7728 TIME...MOT...LOC 2055Z 277DEG 45KT 3975 7779 3953 7798 3938 7822 THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX WIND GUST...70 MPH
  10. yoda
    Numerous reports of tree damage and trees downed in W MD
  11. yoda
    278 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 402 PM EDT SAT JUN 6 2026 MDC005-015-025-027-031-510-VAC043-107-171-187-WVC023-031-070000- /O.EXA.KLWX.SV.A.0278.000000T0000Z-260607T0000Z/ THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS EXTENDED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 278 TO INCLUDE THE FOLLOWING AREAS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING IN MARYLAND THIS WATCH INCLUDES 6 COUNTIES IN CENTRAL MARYLAND HOWARD MONTGOMERY IN NORTHEAST MARYLAND CECIL IN NORTHERN MARYLAND BALTIMORE BALTIMORE CITY HARFORD IN VIRGINIA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 4 COUNTIES IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA LOUDOUN IN NORTHWEST VIRGINIA CLARKE SHENANDOAH WARREN IN WEST VIRGINIA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 2 COUNTIES IN EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA GRANT HARDY
  12. yoda
    BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service State College PA 357 PM EDT Sat Jun 6 2026 The National Weather Service in State College PA has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Bedford County in south central Pennsylvania... Fulton County in south central Pennsylvania... Southern Huntingdon County in central Pennsylvania... * Until 500 PM EDT. * At 356 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from Ogletown to near Cessna to near Bedford to Buffalo Mills to near Lake Gordon to near La Vale, moving east at 65 mph. THESE IS A LINE OF DESTRUCTIVE STORMS! HAZARD...80 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be heavily damaged. Expect considerable damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles. Extensive tree damage and power outages are likely. * Locations impacted include... Bedford, Breezewood, Warfordsburg, Clearville, New Enterprise, Everett, McConnellsburg, Osterburg, Harrisonville, Big Cove Tannery, Crystal Springs, and Waterfall. Radar has indicated rotation within these severe thunderstorms. Although a tornado is not immediately likely, tornadoes can develop quickly during severe thunderstorms. This includes the following Interstates... Interstate 70 from mile markers 147 to 170. The Pennsylvania Turnpike from mile markers 140 to 185. Interstate 99 from mile markers 0 to 14. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... SEEK SHELTER NOW inside an interior room or closet on the lowest floor of a well built structure. Prepare immediately for tornado like wind speeds capable of producing significant damage. Very heavy rainfall is occurring with these severe thunderstorms, and may lead to flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways. && LAT...LON 3973 7868 4005 7859 4023 7863 4027 7834 4025 7830 4027 7827 4026 7791 4024 7776 4001 7792 3982 7801 3972 7810 TIME...MOT...LOC 1956Z 270DEG 55KT 4022 7871 4012 7862 4004 7860 3994 7860 3984 7866 3973 7882 TORNADO...POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX WIND GUST...80 MPH
  13. yoda
    BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 405 PM EDT Sat Jun 6 2026 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Northwestern Washington County in north central Maryland... Allegany County in western Maryland... Garrett County in western Maryland... Northern Frederick County in northwestern Virginia... Northwestern Morgan County in the Panhandle of West Virginia... Mineral County in eastern West Virginia... Northern Hampshire County in eastern West Virginia... * Until 500 PM EDT. * At 404 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from near Lake Gordon to near Ridgeley to near Keyser, moving east at 60 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... Cumberland, Frostburg, Keyser, Mountain Lake Park, Oakland, Westernport, Romney, Hancock, Bel Air, Paw Paw, Bittinger, La Vale, Fort Ashby, Lonaconing, Piedmont, Grantsville, Berkeley Springs, Loch Lynn Heights, Deer Park, and Accident. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. && LAT...LON 3972 7810 3939 7842 3925 7862 3929 7909 3931 7914 3933 7927 3931 7928 3933 7949 3953 7948 3962 7945 3972 7916 TIME...MOT...LOC 2004Z 289DEG 52KT 3979 7862 3961 7878 3948 7899 HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH
  14. yoda
    https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0278.html URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 278 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 140 PM EDT Sat Jun 6 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of The Maryland Panhandle Central Pennsylvania Extreme northern Virginia The eastern West Virginia Panhandle * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 140 PM until 800 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Storms are forming in western Pennsylvania, and a separate storm cluster in Ohio has a history of wind damage. Either or both areas of storms will spread into central Pennsylvania through the afternoon, and potentially as far south as the West Virginia/Maryland Panhandles. Damaging gusts will be the main threat, though the strongest storms could also produce isolated large hail (1-1.5 inches in diameter). The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 85 statute miles north and south of a line from 35 miles south southwest of Dubois PA to 40 miles northeast of Harrisburg PA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. &&
  15. yoda
    Watch up for N MD into NW VA
  16. yoda
    Probably will stay north of us... but... https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0998.html Mesoscale Discussion 0998 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1007 AM CDT Sat Jun 06 2026 Areas affected...eastern Ohio...western Pennsylvania...northern West Virginia...and northern Maryland Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely Valid 061507Z - 061730Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorm activity to increase in coverage and intensity through the late morning/afternoon with an increase in damaging wind potential. DISCUSSION...A line of storms continues south and east across portions of eastern Indiana into Ohio, with occasional strong to isolated severe gusts (50-60 mph). It is uncertain how this will evolve downstream, with guidance showing potential for maintenance and intensification along the remaining outflow later in the afternoon. Gradual increase in forcing for ascent will occur this afternoon as strengthening mid-level flow overspreads the area with the trough across the Great Lakes. Filtered heating is expected through broken mid-level cloud cover. This in combination with dew points in the low to mid 60s will yield around 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE. Additionally, steepening low-level lapse rates are expected, supporting downward transport of higher momentum flow aloft to the surface. Additional downstream development is likely with potential for several clusters of storms capable of damaging wind through the afternoon. While exact timing of this threat remains uncertain, a watch will likely be needed to cover this potential by the afternoon. ..Thornton/Thompson.. 06/06/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...IWX...
  17. yoda
    Looks like the SLGT risk and MRGL risk lines were nudged southward a tad on 1300z SPC OTLK
  18. yoda
    Tomorrow evening could be interesting near the northern parts of the LWX CWA
  19. yoda
    Code orange air quality alert here today
  20. yoda
    12z Euro showing a real return to summer starting middle of next week... upper 90s and low 100s
  21. yoda
  22. yoda
    It has begun in the EPAC BULLETIN Tropical Storm Amanda Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012026 800 AM PDT Wed Jun 03 2026 ...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO THE FIRST TROPICAL STORM OF THE 2026 EASTERN PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...10.6N 128.2W ABOUT 1475 MI...2375 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Amanda was located near latitude 10.6 North, longitude 128.2 West. Amanda is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through Friday. A turn toward the west and west-southwest at a slower forward motion is forecast this weekend. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days. A weakening trend is forecast later this weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).
  23. yoda
    Sun is out here
  24. yoda
    https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/metwatch/metwatch_mpd_multi.php?md=0258&yr=2026 Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0258 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 920 AM EDT Wed May 27 2026 Areas affected...Maryland, District of Columbia Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 271319Z - 271519Z Summary...Isolated flash flood potential will exist as a cluster of storms over western Maryland moves through the region this morning. Discussion...A persistent cluster of thunderstorms was noted via radar mosaic imagery near Frederick. These cells have shown modest signs of intensification in the last few minutes. They are being supported by weak mid-level waves moving through zonal flow over northern VA and near 70F dewpoints that were fostering 1.75-2 inch PW values and ~1000 J/kg MUCAPE. Despite current rain rates of 0.5-0.75 inch/hr, moisture values increase with downstream extent toward the Chesapeake Bay. Though appreciable steering flow was supporting fairly quick movement of individual cells (around 35-40 knots), increasing downstream moisture profiles and urban ground surfaces/lower FFGs nearer to I-95 (0.75 in/hr) may support isolated instances of flash flooding this morning. This potential should be brief (perhaps extending through 15Z/11a). More upstream convection is possible later today and will be monitored for any flash flood potential beyond 15Z. Cook ATTN...WFO...LWX...PHI... ATTN...RFC...RHA...NWC... LAT...LON 39727661 39527578 38907572 38667657 39187757 39657737
  25. yoda
    51 degrees and rain on May 22nd... unbelievable
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