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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 352 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1000 AM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Western Massachusetts Central and Eastern New York Vermont * Effective this Thursday morning and afternoon from 1000 AM until 300 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 80 mph possible SUMMARY...A line of fast-moving thunderstorms will sweep eastward across the watch area through the early afternoon, posing a risk of damaging winds and a few tornadoes. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 35 miles northwest of Elmira NY to 25 miles east of Montpelier VT. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 349...WW 350...WW 351... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 0.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 400. Mean storm motion vector 26040.

Tornado Watch it is for W MA, VT, and E NY until 3pm

Mesoscale Discussion 1181 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0831 AM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026 Areas affected...portions of the Northeast Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 181331Z - 181530Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms to shift eastward with potential for damaging wind and perhaps a tornado. DISCUSSION...Low topped convection will continue eastward this morning across portions of the Northeast. Strong southerly flow is ushering in higher dew points ahead of this line. Though cloud cover is prominent, further destabilization is expected to occur through filtered heating into the early afternoon with MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg progged by the afternoon. Given the strong mid-level flow and low-level jet, damaging wind potential will likely increase into the afternoon. Given strong low-level shear profiles, a couple of tornadoes are also possible. A watch will be needed soon to cover this potential. ..Thornton/Hart.. 06/18/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP... PBZ... LAT...LON 43017777 41647945 41407616 41587391 42387246 44077204 44817237 44887508 43017777 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH

Sounds like Tornado Watch coming per MCD

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 814 AM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Northwestern Shenandoah County in northwestern Virginia... Western Frederick County in northwestern Virginia... East central Mineral County in eastern West Virginia... Central Hardy County in eastern West Virginia... Hampshire County in eastern West Virginia... * Until 900 AM EDT. * At 813 AM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from near Romney to 12 miles north of Moorefield to near Petersburg, moving east at 60 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... Romney, Wardensville, Springfield, Capon Bridge, Green Spring, Bean Settlement, Yellow Spring, Shanks, High View, Bloomery, Perry, Points, Lost City, Lost River, Delray, Cross Junction, Baker, Kirby, Gore, and Wapocomo.

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 809 AM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Northwestern Rockingham County in western Virginia... Northwestern Augusta County in western Virginia... Highland County in western Virginia... Pendleton County in eastern West Virginia... * Until 845 AM EDT. * At 809 AM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from 15 miles west of Upper Tract to 9 miles east of Richwood, moving east at 65 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... Franklin, Monterey, Brandywine, Upper Tract, Doe Hill, Head Waters, Riverton, Deer Run, Liberty, Circleville, Ruddle, Williamsville, Oak Flat, Vanderpool, Sirons Mill, Hightown, Clover Creek, Cherry Grove, Mill Gap, and New Hampden.

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 806 AM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Southwestern Allegany County in western Maryland... Northwestern Rockingham County in western Virginia... Northeastern Pendleton County in eastern West Virginia... Grant County in eastern West Virginia... South central Mineral County in eastern West Virginia... Western Hardy County in eastern West Virginia... Southwestern Hampshire County in eastern West Virginia... * Until 830 AM EDT. * At 806 AM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from near Keyser to 6 miles east of Davis to 8 miles south of Hendricks, moving east at 65 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... Keyser, Moorefield, Petersburg, Romney, Rough Run, Upper Tract, Burlington, Russelldale, Landes, Arthur, Brushy Run, New Creek, Seymourville, Lahmansville, Masonville, Cabins, Dorcas, Fisher, Medley, and Kline Gap. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building.

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 755 AM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Southwestern Garrett County in western Maryland... Northwestern Pendleton County in eastern West Virginia... Central Grant County in eastern West Virginia... * Until 830 AM EDT. * At 755 AM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from near Bayard to 6 miles southeast of Hendricks to near Elkins, moving east at 60 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... Streby, Seneca Rocks, Onego, Hopeville, Beechwood, Riverton, and Wilsonia.

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 737 AM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Southwestern Garrett County in western Maryland... Northwestern Grant County in eastern West Virginia... Southwestern Mineral County in eastern West Virginia... * Until 800 AM EDT. * At 737 AM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 7 miles northwest of Bayard, moving east at 60 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... Mountain Lake Park, Oakland, Bayard, Loch Lynn Heights, Deer Park, Redhouse, Hutton, Gorman, Crellin, Beechwood, Wilson, Gormania, and Wilsonia. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Remain alert for a possible tornado! Tornadoes can develop quickly from severe thunderstorms. If you spot a tornado go at once into the basement or small central room in a sturdy structure. For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. && LAT...LON 3942 7948 3944 7920 3921 7932 3921 7936 3919 7949 TIME...MOT...LOC 1137Z 273DEG 51KT 3931 7949 TORNADO...POSSIBLE HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

20/5 tor probs, 50/10 wind

Severe Thunderstorm Watch up until noon for SW portion of the LWX CWA https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0350.html URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 350 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 710 AM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Western Virginia Eastern West Virginia * Effective this Thursday morning from 710 AM until NOON EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A fast-moving organized linear system with a history of wind damage/some tornadoes overnight will continue east-southeastward this morning. Wind damage will remain possible if not likely, even if the linear system begins to weaken across the mountains. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles north and south of a line from 35 miles west of White Sulphur Springs WV to 35 miles northeast of Lynchburg VA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes.

Mesoscale Discussion 1165 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026 Areas affected...portions of northern/central Missouri...western Illinois Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 171803Z - 172000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development likely by the afternoon with potential for all hazards including damaging wind, large hail, and strong tornadoes. DISCUSSION...Morning convection has moved into central/eastern Illinois, with trailing outflow and a zone of differential heating extending across northern Missouri into south-central Illinois. This zone will be the focus of redevelopment of thunderstorm activity this afternoon. Strong daytime heating is ongoing across central/northern Missouri into far western Illinois in the cloud free zone south of the outflow. SPC Mesoanalysis indicates that MLCIN is eroding in this region, with temperatures climbing into the mid 80s F. This is further confirmed by visible satellite trends with the cumulus near the vicinity of the outflow also becoming increasingly agitated. Strong deep layer shear around 50-55 kts is analyzed across this region, with STP around 2-3 across northern Missouri into far western Illinois. This in combination with strong to moderate instability edging northward will likely support initial supercells capable of large hail, damaging wind, and tornadoes (perhaps strong). A 40-50 kt low level jet axis extends from the southern/central Plains into Missouri/western Illinois. This is progged to shift north and eastward through the afternoon, which may shift the higher STP and more favorable tornado potential into portions of western/central Illinois. One or more watches will likely be needed to cover this potential this afternoon. ..Thornton/Hart.. 06/17/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...EAX...TOP... LAT...LON 38788965 39578844 40158794 40518805 40738844 40788904 40599090 40469164 40309251 40129360 40049405 39629469 39309489 38959516 38169511 37979368 38499057 38619015 38788965 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...140-170 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN

Potential Tropical Cyclone One Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012026 400 AM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026 The center of the low pressure area is very near the Middle Texas coast, and offshore buoy observations indicate that maximum winds remain 25 kt. A line of deep convection has formed over the northwestern Gulf waters since the last advisory, but due to strong westerly shear, this activity is located more than 120 n mi to the east/southeast of the low-level center. As a result, the latest Dvorak classification from TAFB is Too Weak To Classify, meaning the system does not have the convective organization necessary to be designated as a tropical cyclone. The current motion is northeastward, or 045/5 kt. The system is embedded in strengthening low- to mid-level southwesterly flow, and with another trough approaching from the northwest, it is expected to accelerate northeastward today. The track guidance has shifted slightly westward on this cycle, and the center of the low is therefore likely to straddle the Texas coast for much of the day, before moving farther inland over eastern Texas or Louisiana tonight. The NHC official track has been nudged westward, close to the TVCN and HCCA consensus aids. The prospects for this system to become a tropical cyclone may be decreasing. With the low-level center unlikely to fully emerge over the Gulf waters for an appreciable amount of time, and 25-30 kt of westerly shear expected to continue for the next 12 hours, it will be difficult for the system to gain the convective organization necessary to become a tropical cyclone before it moves inland tonight. Even if the system doesn't become a tropical cyclone, there could still be some strengthening of the wind field well east of the center during the day, and the NHC official forecast will continue to show a peak of 35 kt in 12 hours. After that, all of the global models now show the system opening up into a trough over Louisiana by tonight. The official forecast shows the system as a remnant low at 24 hours, but it's entirely possible it will have dissipated by then. The global models show the remnant low-level vorticity continuing eastward across the Southeast U.S. on Thursday and Friday, and the ECMWF, Canadian, and UKMET models indicate that a low pressure system could redevelop, especially once the system moves offshore over the western Atlantic. The exact nature of this low is unclear at this time, but we will monitor model trends for the possibility of tropical cyclone formation over the western Atlantic late this week or this weekend. Regardless of whether the system becomes a tropical cyclone, heavy rainfall and life-threatening flash flooding will be the primary hazards with this system. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Potentially life-threatening flash flooding and urban flooding are likely through Thursday across southern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama, southwestern Georgia and the Florida Panhandle, with possible flooding near the Upper Texas coast. Ongoing heavy rainfall could prolong the flood threat into the weekend. 2. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected along the Louisiana coast today from Sabine Pass to Morgan City where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. 3. Minor to moderate coastal flooding is expected along portions of the Upper Texas and Louisiana coastlines today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0900Z 28.0N 96.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 17/1800Z 29.1N 95.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL STORM 24H 18/0600Z 31.1N 92.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg

Potential Tropical Cyclone One Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012026 1000 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026 The disturbance (AL90) that we have been tracking for several days across the southern Gulf of America into northeastern Mexico has moved into southern Texas. While the system is producing plentiful convection, it still lacks a well-defined center. However, most of the guidance suggest that it will move offshore tonight, and winds will increase to tropical-storm-force on Wednesday. Thus, advisories have been initiated on Potential Tropical Cyclone One, and Tropical Storm Watches have been issued for portions of the Upper Texas and southwestern Louisiana coasts. Regardless of whether the system becomes a tropical cyclone, heavy rainfall and life-threatening flash flooding will be the primary hazards with this system. The initial intensity is set at 25 kt, based on surface and radar data. The system is moving slowly northeastward this morning. We expect the low to continue moving in that general direction with some increase in forward speed due to it encountering faster flow associated with a flat mid-latitude trough over the eastern United States. Model guidance hugs the Texas coast but generally keeps it offshore for about a day on Wednesday before moving back onshore late Wednesday or early Thursday. The NHC forecast is between the latest dynamical model consensus and the corrected-model consensus HCCA. The upper-level environment is not particularly conducive for much intensification with a fair bit of shear and close proximity to land. However, there is enough upper-level support from a jet to the north to cause large-scale deepening, along with convective support from warm Gulf waters, so some intensification is anticipated through Wednesday. This forecast is similar to the model consensus IVCN. It should be noted that this system will likely never have a pure tropical appearance on satellite due to the upper trough and shear, with a highly asymmetric appearance with the rainfall and winds favoring the eastern semicircle. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Potentially life-threatening flash and urban flooding is possible across the Texas coast eastward into central Mississippi through Thursday. Prolonged rainfall may extend the flood threat into the weekend. Widespread small stream and minor river flooding is expected along the Texas coast into southwest Louisiana, with isolated areas of significant river flooding possible across the Texas Coast and Louisiana. 2. Potential Tropical Cyclone One is forecast to become a tropical storm as it moves along or just off the northwestern Gulf coast through Wednesday. Tropical Storm Watches have been issued from Sargent, Texas, to Morgan City, Louisiana. 3. Minor to moderate coastal flooding is expected along portions of the Upper Texas and Louisiana coastlines. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/1500Z 27.0N 98.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 17/0000Z 27.4N 97.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 24H 17/1200Z 28.2N 95.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL STORM 36H 18/0000Z 29.6N 93.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 18/1200Z 31.6N 91.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 60H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake

BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone One Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012026 1000 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026 ...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODING EXPECTED FROM POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE ONE.... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.0N 98.0W ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SW OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM SW OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the northwestern Gulf Coast from Sargent, Texas to Morgan City, Louisiana. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Sargent to Morgan City A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 to 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 27.0 North, longitude 98.0 West. The system is moving toward the northeast near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this general motion with an increase in forward speed is anticipated over the next couple of days. The disturbance should move offshore the Texas coast tonight or early Wednesday, move roughly parallel to the upper Texas coast later on Wednesday and move back inland in extreme eastern Texas or southwestern Louisiana late Wednesday or early Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. The disturbance is forecast to gradually strengthen and could become a tropical storm early on Wednesday. Weakening is anticipated on Thursday after the system moves back on land. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone One can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC. RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone One is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with isolated higher totals around 12 inches through Thursday from the Mid to Upper Texas Coast through much of Louisiana, central and southern portions of Mississippi and Alabama, and the far western portion of the Florida Panhandle. This could generate dangerous to life-threatening flash flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone One, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero For a list of rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated this potential tropical cyclone, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS1 with the WMO header ACUS44 KWBC or at the following link: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area beginning early Wednesday. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Port Bolivar, TX to Morgan City, LA...2-4 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?peakSurge. SURF: Swells generated by the Potential Tropical Cyclone are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along the northwestern Gulf Coast for the next couple of days. Please consult products from your local weather office. A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ripCurrents TORNADO: A tornado or two is possible through tonight from the Upper Texas coast across southern Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and the Florida Panhandle.

PTC 1 at 11am per NHC @WxWatcher007

Updated morning AFD from LWX KEY MESSAGE 2...A warm front lifting through the region brings showers and thunderstorms overnight tonight. High pressure will keep cool and dry conditions in the region this morning. High temperatures this afternoon rise into the upper 70s to low 80s for most with highest elevations in the Alleghenies staying in the 60s. A warm front lifting through the region combined with shortwave energy aloft, bring an increased risk of strong to potentially severe thunderstorms in southern MD. To accommodate this risk, SPC has much of the Chesapeake Bay and portions of Southern MD in a marginal risk for severe weather overnight. Any convection will be elevated in nature, but adequate shear and lift may lead to gusty winds and hail within stronger storms.

FWIW, MRGL added on 1300z OTLK from SPC for just east of i95 corridor and the Delmarva for tonight... 0/5/5 .Delmarva/coastal Mid-Atlantic... Some strong/locally severe thunderstorms could occur tonight as convection develop near/north of a near-coastal/offshore surface low and northward-advancing warm front. Storms will tend to be elevated inland, but modest buoyancy and strong unidirectional shear through the cloud-bearing layer could yield some hail and/or gusty winds.

Afternoon AFD from LWX KEY MESSAGE 1...Heat and humidity returns for Thursday, along with chances for severe thunderstorms. A potent shortwave on the southern periphery of a much broader upper low over Canada will track through the Great Lakes on Wednesday night. This will force a highly anomalous area of low pressure to track across the eastern Great Lakes. In fact, this low could potentially break all-time minimum sea level pressure records for the month of June across portions of Wisconsin and Michigan as it tracks through later Wednesday into Wednesday night. Most solutions have this low tracking across southern Ontario and Quebec at around 985-990 hPa on Thursday. An unseasonably strong wind field aloft will accompany the highly anomalous low, as 850 hPa winds climb to around 30-50 knots and 500 hPa winds increase to in excess of 50 knots. Low-level south to southwesterly flow will also draw a hot and humid airmass north into the area. Temperatures are forecast to soar into the upper 80s and 90s across the bulk of the forecast area, while dewpoints increase into the mid to upper 60s. This overlap of a very hot and humid airmass with highly anomalous winds aloft raises concerns for severe thunderstorms locally on Thursday. It`s still to early to get into the finer scale details, but soundings show an environment that is very favorable for the production of damaging winds. SPC currently has the entire area outlooked with a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms. We`ll continue to monitor this threat for severe thunderstorms over the coming days. Even outside of thunderstorms, winds should be breezy, potentially gusting in excess of 30 mph even in clear air. The combination of heat and background winds will be something that we don`t experience often here in the Mid-Atlantic.

This is what LWX had in their AFD this morning re Thursday Beginning Thursday, a strong surface low will push east past the Great Lakes with a stemming cold front that will push across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. This cold front could result in multiple showers and thunderstorms throughout the region, with some becoming severe. There is already a 30%-45% severe probability noted in NCAR`s AI model, and a 15%-30% severe probability noted in CSU`s ML model. Timing and exact hazards are still the primary uncertainties being 5 days out, but early markers are definitely showing an early widespread severe risk with this system.

EZF storm went severe quick

Came out 15 minutes ago

TOG near Sykesville PA Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 445 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026 PAC065-142100- /O.CON.KPBZ.TO.W.0014.000000T0000Z-260614T2100Z/ Jefferson PA- 445 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026 ...TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT FOR SOUTHEASTERN JEFFERSON PA COUNTY... At 445 PM EDT, a confirmed tornado was located near Reynoldsville, or 7 miles north of Punxsutawney, moving east at 30 mph. HAZARD...Damaging tornado. SOURCE...Law enforcement confirmed tornado. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. Locations impacted include... Reynoldsville, Sykesville and Anita. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a well-built building away from windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. && LAT...LON 4106 7902 4113 7880 4099 7880 4099 7898 TIME...MOT...LOC 2038Z 259DEG 25KT 4103 7899 TORNADO...OBSERVED MAX HAIL SIZE...<1.00 IN

Per LWX, on the 12z KIAD sounding, PWAT was 1.05. On the 18z, it was 1.52

Confirmed TOG by spotters BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Cleveland OH 425 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026 The National Weather Service in Cleveland has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Northeastern Crawford County in northwestern Pennsylvania... * Until 515 PM EDT. * At 425 PM EDT, a confirmed tornado was located near Cambridge Springs, or 9 miles north of Meadville, moving east at 50 mph. HAZARD...Damaging tornado. SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. * The tornado will be near... Meadville and Cambridge Springs around 430 PM EDT. Guys Mills around 435 PM EDT. Lincolnville, Canadohta Lake, and Riceville around 440 PM EDT. Titusville around 450 PM EDT. Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Venango, Townville, Woodcock, Blooming Valley, Saegertown, and Hydetown.