yoda

45%... impressive indeed

Flood Watch National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC Issued by National Weather Service State College PA 345 AM EDT Fri Jun 13 2025 DCZ001-MDZ013-016-017-504-VAZ037>039-050-051-053>057-502-527-131545- /O.NEW.KLWX.FA.A.0011.250613T2200Z-250614T0600Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ District of Columbia-Prince Georges-Charles-St. Marys-Central and Southeast Montgomery-Albemarle-Greene-Madison-Orange-Culpeper- Fairfax-Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Stafford-Spotsylvania- King George-Southern Fauquier-Central and Southeast Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park- 345 AM EDT Fri Jun 13 2025 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT... * WHAT...Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible. * WHERE...Including the following , District of Columbia, including the following areas in Maryland, Central and Southeast Montgomery, Charles, Prince Georges and St. Marys, and including the following areas in Virginia, Albemarle, Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria, Central and Southeast Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park, Culpeper, Fairfax, Greene, King George, Madison, Orange, Southern Fauquier, Spotsylvania and Stafford. * WHEN...From this evening through late tonight. * IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - Showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage late this afternoon through this evening. Some thunderstorms will contain heavy rainfall, with rainfall amounts around 1 to 3 inches possible within an hour or two. Storms may also train over the same areas, causing the possibility for locally higher amounts around 4 to 5 inches of rain within a few hours. Heavy rainfall in a short period of time combining with already saturated soils means that creeks and streams may rapidly rise out of their banks along with the potential for flash flooding in urban areas. - Please visit www.weather.gov/safety/flood for flood safety and preparedness information

90 at DCA at 2pm

Interesting website... never heard or seen it before. What do you think of it?

Mesoscale Discussion 1197 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1204 PM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025 Areas affected...portions of VA/MD Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 081704Z - 081830Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered strong/severe storms are possible through the afternoon. Damaging gusts will be the main hazard but a tornado and sporadic hail also are possible. DISCUSSION...Isolated convection is develop early this afternoon in a weakly unstable airmass in the vicinity of an effective warm front draped across northern VA toward coastal MD. As additional heating occurs over the Blue Ridge, thunderstorm coverage should increase and storms will move across the Piedmont and Chesapeake Bay vicinity through the afternoon. Overall instability and midlevel lapse rates will remain modest. However, effective shear around 30-40 kt will support organized cells. Where steeper low-level lapse rates develop amid stronger heating, strong/severe gusts will be possible. Low-level shear will be somewhat enhanced along the warm front, as is evident in the LWX VWP, which shows a mildly enlarged and favorably curved low-level hodograph. Rotating storms interacting with the warm front could pose a risk for a brief tornado or two. The area is being evaluated for possible watch issuance. ..Leitman/Guyer.. 06/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RNK... LAT...LON 38987851 39297781 39267736 39157695 38847623 38407580 37587544 36967538 36607571 36577610 36557726 36777834 37207889 38027910 38577893 38987851 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN

MCD up... 60% chance of Watch

Looks like decent rotation west of Stafford on Radarscope

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1245 PM EDT Sun Jun 8 2025 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Central Stafford County in northern Virginia... * Until 115 PM EDT. * At 1245 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located near Stafford, moving northeast at 25 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...For those in the direct path of a tornado touchdown, flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Damage to roofs, siding, and windows may occur. Mobile homes may be damaged or destroyed. Tree damage is likely. * This dangerous storm will be near... Stafford around 1250 PM EDT. Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Ramoth, Widewater, Aquia, Roseville, Glendie, Garrisonville, Arkendale, Ruby, and Cherry Hill. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. && LAT...LON 3843 7758 3858 7745 3852 7737 3850 7730 3855 7728 3856 7726 3858 7726 3859 7725 3856 7724 3856 7722 3855 7724 3849 7728 3847 7728 3848 7727 3845 7728 3845 7726 3837 7754 TIME...MOT...LOC 1645Z 233DEG 20KT 3843 7752 TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN

Tornado Warning Stafford county

Hmmm Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0402 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1211 PM EDT Sun Jun 08 2025 Areas affected...Portions of the Central Appalachians and Northern Mid-Atlantic Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 081610Z - 082210Z SUMMARY...Areas of moderate to heavy rainfall will continue through this afternoon with an expectation that scattered thunderstorms will develop and produce heavier rates. Given the moist and sensitive antecedent conditions, the additional rainfall is likely to result in some runoff problems and flash flooding. DISCUSSION...The midday GOES-E visible satellite imagery along with regional radar data shows areas of moderate to locally heavy rain falling over portions of western and southwest PA down through the MD/WV Panhandles and into northern VA. This rainfall is being driven by the arrival of a shortwave trough from the OH Valley which is promoting a northwest to southeast corridor of isentropic ascent and frontogenetical forcing along and just poleward of a warm front lifting gradually northeastward into the region. Meanwhile, solar insolation is seen taking place farther west across central and northern WV and western VA which is allowing for some CU/TCU development over the higher terrain. Surface-based instability is expected to continue to increase going through the afternoon hours, and with convergent flow along the front and orographic forcing over the higher terrain, there should be the development and gradual expansion of some heavier shower and thunderstorm activity over the next few hours. It should be noted that moist low-level southeast flow is expected to become better established into the Blue Ridge this afternoon as well, and this may yield some locally more concentrated areas of convection in these areas. The environment is pretty moist and the 12Z RAOBs at KPIT and KIAD showed 1.42 inch and 1.62 inch PWs respectfully which are at or just above the 90th percentile of daily climatology. This overall environment should favor at least above average rainfall efficiency across the region and especially with some of the forcing that will be occurring this afternoon in the warm layer of the column. Rainfall rates with the instability driven convective elements this afternoon from southwest PA down through northern VA will likely be quite high and capable of reaching 1.5 to 2 inches/hour. The 12Z CAM guidance suggests that some localized rainfall totals by this evening may reach as high as 2 to 3+ inches where some of the slower moving cells evolve. Given the wet antecedent conditions and high rainfall rates, isolated to scattered areas of flash flooding are likely. Orrison ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CLE...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX... ATTN...RFC...RHA...TIR...NWC...

https://x.com/capitalweather/status/1931724389088710750

"Multiple rounds of scattered severe thunderstorms look to push across the region this afternoon and evening (between 2-9pm) as a warm front lifts through. The primary threat with storms will be damaging winds and locally heavy rainfall. An isolated tornado or two is possible mainly south & east of DC. Have a way to get warning via phone, tv, or computer. #MDwx #VAwx #WVwx #DCwx" From LWX Facebook page posted an hour ago

Warm front must be nearby me... sun and breaks in the clouds here and increasingly humid

Hmmm FXUS61 KLWX 081335 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 935 AM EDT Sun Jun 8 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will slowly settle southward toward the area through today, then meander across the Mid-Atlantic through Monday. A stronger cold front will cross the area on Tuesday night, followed by high pressure Wednesday and Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Next shortwave trough and accompanying area of low pressure will track ewd from eastern Ohio and across Pennsylvania this afternoon providing ample lift for showers and thunderstorms in a warm, humid, and unstable air mass. As of this morning, the wavy stalled front is located generally from Staunton to the Northern Neck. Cloudy and showery conditions continue north of this boundary this morning, with a few embedded heavier showers ongoing in central VA. This activity is expected to slowly diminish by early afternoon as the warm front lifts north into our area. Where the front ultimately stalls will be important for the severe/flood threat. The most unstable airmass is likely to be south of US-50. The early 12Z guidance looks to have the warm front along the Potomac River, possibly some of it stretches up into MD just south of I-70. The greater SRH will be along and east of the boundary, though deep-layer shear of 35-45 knots looks to be plentiful across most of the area. Will be looking to see where these gradients ultimately set up as that will point to the corridor of most likely severe weather.

https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/products/ocean/tropical/tcfp/basins.html?basin=al-48 Scroll down the page a bit (about 2/3rds of the way down) to the Tropical Atlantic section ETA - I corrected the link

1300z SPC OTLK continues mention of a few tornadoes ...Mid Atlantic Region... A shortwave trough currently over OH will track eastward today, with large-scale ascent overspreading the Mid-Atlantic states by afternoon. A moist surface air mass is present across much of VA/MD/NC and vicinity with dewpoints in the upper 60s. Persistent clouds and weak mid-level lapse rates will limit destabilization. However, it appears likely that storms will develop off the Blue Ridge by mid afternoon and spread eastward toward the coast. Forecast soundings show sufficient low and deep layer shear for supercell structures capable of damaging wind gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes.

5/5/15 on morning day 1 0600Z outlook from SPC (15 hail in the southern part of the LWX CWA into the Wakefield CWA) ..Portions of the Mid Atlantic... By early afternoon, thunderstorms should increase in both coverage and intensity ahead of a weak surface low and associated weak mid-level impulse. These storms will move into an airmass characterized by mid to upper 70s F temperatures and 70 F dewpoints, overspread by modest mid-level lapse rates (resulting in over 1500 J/kg MLCAPE). Considerable veering with height will support elongated hodographs with appreciable low-level curvature, with multicells and supercells the expected storm mode. Damaging gusts and large hail may accompany the stronger storms. A few tornadoes may occur with any supercells that interact with a baroclinic boundary across eastern VA.

Updated evening AFD from LWX explains reasons for the watch SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Evening update: The main forecast change this evening was the issuance of a Flood Watch for flash flooding for portions of the Alleghenies, Potomac Highlands, Shenandoah Valley and Central Virginia from 7 AM to 10 PM tomorrow. Within this corridor, flash flood guidance is very low due to saturated soils and high background streamflow levels following recent rains. East to southeasterly 850 hPa flow to the north of the surface front will also intersect the Blue Ridge and Alleghenies, potentially leading to orographic enhancement of rainfall. A widespread 1 to 2 inches of rainfall is expected across this area, with localized totals up to 5 inches possible. This rain will likely be spread across multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms late tonight through tomorrow evening. For now, the Watch is in effect where wet antecedent conditions and potential terrain enhancements resulted in greater confidence regarding flash flooding potential. The Watch may possibly need to be expanded along the edges at a later time, but decisions for those surrounding areas were deferred to subsequent shifts due to uncertainty in the northeastward extent of the heavier rains and/or higher flash flood guidance values.

Flood Watch National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 757 PM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025 MDZ501-509-510-VAZ026>030-037>040-507-WVZ050-055-501>506-080800- /O.NEW.KLWX.FA.A.0009.250608T1100Z-250609T0200Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Extreme Western Allegany-Western Garrett-Eastern Garrett- Rockingham-Shenandoah-Frederick VA-Page-Warren-Albemarle-Greene- Madison-Rappahannock-Northern Virginia Blue Ridge-Hampshire-Hardy- Western Grant-Eastern Grant-Western Mineral-Eastern Mineral- Western Pendleton-Eastern Pendleton- 757 PM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM EDT SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING... * WHAT...Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible. * WHERE...Portions of western Maryland, including the following areas, Eastern Garrett, Extreme Western Allegany and Western Garrett, Virginia, including the following areas, Albemarle, Frederick VA, Greene, Madison, Northern Virginia Blue Ridge, Page, Rappahannock, Rockingham, Shenandoah and Warren, and eastern West Virginia, including the following areas, Eastern Grant, Eastern Mineral, Eastern Pendleton, Hampshire, Hardy, Western Grant, Western Mineral and Western Pendleton. * WHEN...From 7 AM EDT Sunday through Sunday evening. * IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - -Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected on Sunday as an area of low pressure tracks eastward and interacts with a frontal zone. A widespread 1 to 2 inches of rainfall appears likely, with localized totals up to around 5 inches possible. Saturated soils and background high streamflow levels may enhance the threat for flooding. - Please visit www.weather.gov/safety/flood for flood safety and preparedness information PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

Afternoon day 2 disco from SPC ..South to Lower Mid-Atlantic States... Boundary-layer heating is anticipated along the Atlantic Coastal Plain and adjacent Piedmont should support MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg. Multiple embedded MCVs will support at least scattered afternoon storms developing near the higher terrain and spreading east towards the coast. Enhanced mid-level westerlies will support transient/weak updraft rotation and multicell clustering. Scattered damaging winds and isolated severe hail are likely. A couple of tornadoes are also possible in the Lower Mid-Atlantic along the primary differential heating corridor, where low-level shear may be adequate ahead of a central Appalachians MCV.

Hmmm... let's try again tomorrow? 15 wind and 5 tor

Thunder and moderate rain here

Sneaky wind threat on Saturday? Its a MRGL on the new day 2... but its all we've got for now

17/9/4

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