yoda

560 WTNT42 KNHC 182053 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Gabrielle Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 500 PM AST Thu Sep 18 2025 Gabrielle continues to fight off strong westerly vertical wind shear and significant dry air entrainment this afternoon. Some thunderstorms have blossomed on the storm's eastern flank, which is an improvement from its naked low-level swirl earlier this morning. The initial intensity is held at 45 kt based on recent scatterometer data of at least 40 kt and little in the way of change to its structure from earlier this morning. Atmospheric conditions are expected to remain hostile for another day or so, meaning Gabrielle is likely maintain its current intensity or weaken slightly during that time. Recent 12Z guidance indicates vertical wind shear relaxes and an increasingly moist vertical profile should foster a much improved environment for strengthening this weekend, with the GFS model trending toward the more conducive ECMWF solution. As a result, intensity guidance is notable higher on this cycle. The NHC intensity forecast is raised from the previous one, but not as high as the model consensus mostly due to continuity. There are a growing number of hurricane models that are indicating Gabrielle could approach major hurricane strength after the weekend. Gabrielle is moving west-northwestward at 13 kt and should maintain this track with a bend toward the northwest over the next few days as the storm is steered primarily by a subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic. A turn toward the north and northeast is forecast to occur late this weekend and early next week when Gabrielle rounds the western periphery of the ridge and a frontal system approaches from the west. While the guidance envelope has shrunk on this forecast cycle, there are some significant speed differences, with the ECMWF/GFS models considerably faster than the Google Deep Mind ensemble. Although no significant changes to the forecast were made, confidence remains on the lower side given the along-track model spread and an unclear intensity forecast beyond 48 hours. Interests in Bermuda should continue to monitor Gabrielle over the next several days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/2100Z 20.8N 52.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 19/0600Z 21.5N 54.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 19/1800Z 22.6N 56.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 20/0600Z 23.9N 58.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 20/1800Z 25.3N 59.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 21/0600Z 27.1N 61.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 21/1800Z 29.0N 62.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 22/1800Z 33.0N 61.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 23/1800Z 39.0N 52.5W 80 KT 90 MPH

Impossible. The desert is so dry there

Tropical Storm Gabrielle Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 17 2025 Satellite imagery this morning indicates that the large system is not well-organized, with an elongated circulation oriented from north-northwest to south-southeast containing a few embedded swirls. The advisory center is a mean center of those swirls, with any associated convection well east of the position due to southwesterly shear. While it wouldn't appear so from conventional satellite data, a recent scatterometer pass indicates upwards of 40-kt winds present, generally northeast and southeast of the center of circulation. Although the system is at best marginally well defined, there is enough data to support an initial intensity of 40 kt, and the depression is named Gabrielle. Little strengthening is anticipated over the next 48 hours as Gabrielle faces an unfavorable shear environment from an upper-level trough and a possible center re-formation, and the forecast intensity remains nearly steady through Friday. By this weekend, a more conducive environment is anticipated, which should allow for gradual intensification. Gabrielle is forecast to become a hurricane by 96 hours. The NHC intensity forecast remains fairly similar to the previous forecast cycle, but it should be noted that there remains considerable spread in the solutions and overall forecast intensity confidence is low. Gabrielle is well away from land and about midway between the Cabo Verde Islands and the Windward Islands. The current estimated motion is north-northwestward, but this is highly uncertain as the center could be re-forming to the north. The system is forecast to move northwestward to west-northwestward due to the subtropical ridge for the next several days. While the forecast has been adjusted to the north from the previous one, this is almost exclusively due to the jump in the initial position. This is a highly uncertain forecast until a better defined center forms. Based on the recent trends, this system should pass well east and north of the Windward and Leeward Islands, but interests in Bermuda should monitor forecasts during the next several days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/1500Z 17.5N 46.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 18/0000Z 19.5N 48.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 18/1200Z 20.8N 50.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 19/0000Z 21.8N 52.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 19/1200Z 22.7N 54.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 20/0000Z 23.5N 56.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 20/1200Z 24.7N 58.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 21/1200Z 27.4N 60.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 22/1200Z 30.0N 62.5W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Taylor/Blake

BULLETIN Tropical Storm Gabrielle Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 17 2025 ...GABRIELLE FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC... ...FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER OPEN WATERS FOR SEVERAL DAYS... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.5N 46.6W ABOUT 1085 MI...1745 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of poorly defined Tropical Storm Gabrielle was located near latitude 17.5 North, longitude 46.6 West. Gabrielle is moving toward the north-northwest near 22 mph (35 km/h). An erratic northwestward to west-northwestward motion at a reduced forward speed is anticipated across the tropical and subtropical central Atlantic during the next few days. Satellite-derived winds indicate that the maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours but some gradual intensification is forecast over the weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center, primarily in the eastern semicircle of the storm. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).

@CAPE https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/46245106/ravens-planned-take-shedeur-sanders-draft-sources-say Would have been interesting to see

What TS? Mario die lol

Good, because we need the rain. A nice, rainy day in the 70s is fine with me. Hope we can all get near an inch at least

Offense is missing... but they are playing a real team this week

Sorry not sorry Ravens fans

Ravens fans got to be going nuts and breathing heavy lol

Nice Commanders win today

https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1964683857149493603

https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1964658176609116561

60mph gust reported at 5pm at DCA

Sounds like LWX radar will be down for a bit... going to have to use IAD close in or DOX NOUS61 KLWX 062156 FTMLWX MESSAGE DATE: SEP 6 2025 21:55 UTC LWX WSR-88D IS OUT OF SERVICE DUE TO A PEDESTAL ISSUE. TECHNICIANS HAVE BEEN NOTIFIED. $$ KR

Trying again near Nokesville/Bristow area?

Intrigued near Warrenton

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 607 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 110 PM EDT Sat Sep 6 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Connecticut Delaware Massachusetts Northeast Maryland Western and Central Maine Southern New Hampshire New Jersey Southeast New York Eastern Pennsylvania Rhode Island Southeast Vermont Coastal Waters * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 110 PM until 800 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are beginning to develop along a boundary from central Maryland northeastward into parts of New York/Vermont. These storms will intensify through the afternoon, with locally severe storms expected. Damaging winds will be the main risk with the stronger cells, although a few could also produce hail and perhaps a tornado or two. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 45 miles west of Wilmington DE to 25 miles east of Bangor ME. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

One of the largest watches I've seen before from SPC... from MD to ME

https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1963980757417799798

https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1963994545768608055

Afternoon day 3 update from SPC mentions potential upgrade to SLGT risk depending on destabilization - currently MRGL risk

Getting lucky today here... looks like some training ongoing

Decent storm south of FDK

What's this weird liquid falling from the sky and wetting the ground?