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yoda

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  1. yoda
    Day 2 ENH up
  2. yoda

    TS Bertha

    yoda replied to GaWx's topic in Tropical Headquarters

  3. yoda

    TS Bertha

    yoda replied to GaWx's topic in Tropical Headquarters

    Tropical Depression Two Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022026 1000 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026 The area of low pressure that NHC has been monitoring in the northeastern Gulf of America during the past few days has now developed a well-defined low-level circulation. The convective activity remains patchy, likely due to intrusions of dry air from its northeast, but there is enough persistent convection near the center and in bands on its northeast and southwest sides to justify this system as a tropical depression. The circulation is sprawling and still weak, however. Based on surface observations and earlier ASCAT data, the initial intensity is set at 25 kt and the minimum pressure is 1011 mb. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate this system later today, and their data will be helpful to better assess the system’s initial structure. The initial motion of the system is difficult to know since it has only recently become well defined, but our best guess is north-northwestward at 3 kt. The system is currently caught in weak steering currents between a ridge over the western Atlantic, another ridge over the south-central and southwestern U.S., and a trough over the northeast U.S. This pattern should take the cyclone slowly northwestward through Monday night, and the system will likely be close enough to the Florida Panhandle to bring the potential for tropical storm conditions there. After that time, a turn to the west or west-northwest seems to be the most likely scenario as the ridge over the southern U.S. builds eastward, taking the system near or across the Gulf coast during the middle and latter portions of the week. The NHC track forecast lies a touch to the south of middle of the guidance envelope, in best agreement with the usually best-performing aids HCCA, TVCN, and GDMI. The sprawling nature of the system, nearby dry air, and some northeasterly vertical wind shear suggest that any strengthening should be slow to occur, especially in the short term. Nonetheless, the system is expected to become a tropical storm as it approaches the Florida Panhandle during the next day or two. There seems to be a better opportunity for the system to strengthen once it turns westward, however, the amount of strengthening will be dependent on how far offshore the circulation is. The NHC track forecast lies toward the upper end of the model guidance, however, there is a low amount of confidence given the uncertainty of how much land interaction will take place. Key Messages: 1. The depression is expected to gradually strengthen and could bring tropical storm conditions to portions of the Florida Panhandle, where a Tropical Storm Watch has been issued. 2. Interests in Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas should monitor the progress of this system, as watches could be required for portions of that area over the next day or two. 3. Areas of flash flooding will be possible through Thursday along the eastern and central Gulf Coast from western Florida to southern portions of Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/1500Z 28.0N 85.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 20/0000Z 28.2N 85.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 20/1200Z 28.5N 85.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 21/0000Z 28.8N 86.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 21/1200Z 29.1N 86.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 22/0000Z 29.4N 87.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 22/1200Z 29.7N 88.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 23/1200Z 29.5N 91.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 24/1200Z 29.7N 95.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
  4. yoda

    TS Bertha

    yoda replied to GaWx's topic in Tropical Headquarters

    Tropical Depression Two Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022026 1000 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OFF THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.0N 85.3W ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM S OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Florida from Ochlockonee River to the Alabama border. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Ochlockonee River to the FL/AL border A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case in the next 36 to 48 hours. Additional watches will likely be required over the next day or two. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Two was located near latitude 28.0 North, longitude 85.3 West. The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 2 mph (4 km/h) and a slow northwestward or north-northwestward motion is expected during the next day or two, followed by a turn toward the west. On the forecast track, the depression will move near or along the northern Gulf coast during the next several days. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm tonight or on Monday. The minimum central pressure based on surface observations is 1011 mb (29.86 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Depression Two can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by late Monday. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the immediate coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Indian Pass to Chassahowitzka, FL...1 to 3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?peakSurge. RAINFALL: The tropical depression is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches with locally higher totals around 8 inches through Thursday along the eastern and central Gulf Coast from western Florida to southern portions of Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana. This rainfall may produce areas of flash flooding, especially in urban areas. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Depression Two, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ero. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
  5. yoda
    Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0210 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected across a broad region from the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast on Tuesday. All severe hazards are possible, but swaths of damaging wind gusts should be the primary severe risk Tuesday afternoon into the nighttime hours. ...Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast... A vigorous upper trough will spread across the region on Tuesday. A broad area of strong deep-layer flow, especially by July standards, will overlap a very moist airmass ahead of an eastward progressing surface cold front. Widespread dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s are expected. While some uncertainty exists regarding potential morning convection in the form of a remnant MCS from the Day 2/Monday period across parts of MI/IN/OH, pockets of stronger heating should occur, and given rich moisture/continuous warm advection ahead of the surface front, strong destabilization is forecast. While boundary layer moisture will begin the day somewhat muted across parts of the Northeast, strong warm advection and increasing southerly low-level flow across the Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast will also result in northward transport of richer boundary layer moisture through evening. While instability may be somewhat less further east into the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast, strong deep-layer flow will envelop this region as well. Supercell wind profiles are evident across the broad warm sector, with 40+ kt westerly flow common above 850 mb. Where supercells can develop and be maintained, all severe hazards will be possible. However, given the strong flow field, and the progressive trough and surface front, one or more bowing segments will quickly develop and spread eastward. Swaths of damaging winds will be the primary concern during the afternoon and into the nighttime hours. ..Leitman.. 07/19/2026
  6. yoda
    That escalated quickly for Tuesday...
  7. yoda
    Its at the end of the NAM range... but those weren't very friendly soundings Tuesday night across the region Yes, I know things will change, but still... DCA at 81 (03z Wednesday) IAD at 84 (06z Wednesday)
  8. yoda
    Pretty active day per the LSR https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=lwx&issuedby=LWX&product=LSR
  9. yoda
    Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 257 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026 MDC013-021-181915- /O.CON.KLWX.SV.W.0265.000000T0000Z-260718T1915Z/ Carroll MD-Frederick MD- 257 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 315 PM EDT FOR NORTHWESTERN CARROLL AND NORTH CENTRAL FREDERICK COUNTIES IN NORTH CENTRAL MARYLAND... At 257 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Taneytown, or 8 miles southeast of Emmitsburg, moving east at 25 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. Locations impacted include... Taneytown, Keysville, and Harney. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 900 PM EDT for north central Maryland. Remain alert for a possible tornado! Tornadoes can develop quickly from severe thunderstorms. If you spot a tornado go at once into the basement or small central room in a sturdy structure. For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building.
  10. yoda
    BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 300 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Northeastern Washington County in north central Maryland... Western Carroll County in north central Maryland... Western Howard County in central Maryland... Northern Montgomery County in central Maryland... Frederick County in north central Maryland... Northeastern Loudoun County in northern Virginia... * Until 400 PM EDT. * At 259 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from Mount Lena to near Poolesville, moving northeast at 30 mph. HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... Columbia, Germantown, Frederick, Gaithersburg, Leesburg, Hagerstown, Olney, Damascus, Thurmont, Poolesville, Emmitsburg, Harry Grove Stadium, Montgomery Village, Eldersburg, Ballenger Creek, Redland, Mount Airy, Robinwood, Taneytown, and Brunswick. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Prepare immediately for large hail and damaging winds. People outside should move immediately to shelter inside a strong building. Stay away from windows. Large hail, damaging wind, and continuous cloud to ground lightning are occurring with these storms. Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature`s leading killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Torrential rainfall is occurring with these storms, and may lead to flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways. A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 900 PM EDT for central and north central Maryland. && LAT...LON 3918 7686 3910 7753 3961 7771 3972 7748 3972 7712 TIME...MOT...LOC 1859Z 246DEG 26KT 3957 7762 3914 7746 THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX WIND GUST...70 MPH $$
  11. yoda
    Storm SE of Warrenton looks interesting...
  12. yoda
    I believe it was @high risk who said there was rotation aloft today... but that it was weak in the low levels
  13. yoda
    BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 234 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Northwestern Carroll County in north central Maryland... Northeastern Frederick County in north central Maryland... * Until 315 PM EDT. * At 234 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Thurmont, moving east at 25 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... Westminster, Thurmont, Emmitsburg, Taneytown, Union Bridge, Harney, Rocky Ridge, Detour, Uniontown, Keysville, Keymar, and Graceham. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Remain alert for a possible tornado! Tornadoes can develop quickly from severe thunderstorms. If you spot a tornado go at once into the basement or small central room in a sturdy structure. For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building.
  14. yoda
    BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 233 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Tornado Warning for... North central Montgomery County in central Maryland... Southeastern Frederick County in north central Maryland... * Until 300 PM EDT. * At 233 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located near Ballenger Creek, or near Harry Grove Stadium, moving east at 25 mph. HAZARD...Tornado and golf ball size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...For those in the direct path of a tornado touchdown, flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Damage to roofs, siding, and windows may occur. Mobile homes may be damaged or destroyed. Tree damage is likely. * This dangerous storm will be near... Damascus and Green Valley around 240 PM EDT. Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Park Mills, Monrovia, Buckeystown, and Clarksburg. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways. && LAT...LON 3936 7717 3935 7717 3934 7719 3930 7715 3929 7715 3923 7721 3930 7744 3935 7742 TIME...MOT...LOC 1833Z 268DEG 21KT 3932 7738 TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...1.75 IN
  15. yoda
    Almost looks like that storm/complex is turning more southward...
  16. yoda
    BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 226 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... South central Carroll County in north central Maryland... Northwestern Howard County in central Maryland... Northwestern Montgomery County in central Maryland... Southern Frederick County in north central Maryland... Northeastern Loudoun County in northern Virginia... * Until 315 PM EDT. * At 226 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Ballenger Creek, or near Harry Grove Stadium, moving southeast at 15 mph. HAZARD...Golf ball size hail and 70 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Expect wind damage to trees and power lines. Hail is large enough to dent and damage vehicles. Some hail damage to roofs, siding, and windows is possible. * Locations impacted include... Germantown, Frederick, Damascus, Poolesville, Ballenger Creek, Mount Airy, New Market, Boyds, Green Valley, Point Of Rocks, Linganore-Bartonsville, Clarksburg, Adamstown, Buckeystown, Monrovia, Barnesville, Ijamsville, Mount Pleasant, Park Mills, and Lucketts.
  17. yoda
    WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION FOR WATCHES 495/496 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 219 PM EDT SAT JUL 18 2026 MDC013-021-027-031-033-190100- /O.CAN.KLWX.SV.A.0496.000000T0000Z-260719T0100Z/ /O.EXA.KLWX.TO.A.0495.000000T0000Z-260719T0100Z/ THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED TORNADO WATCH 495 UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING WHICH REPLACES A PORTION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 496. THE NEW WATCH IS VALID FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IN MARYLAND THE NEW WATCH INCLUDES 5 COUNTIES IN CENTRAL MARYLAND HOWARD MONTGOMERY PRINCE GEORGES IN NORTH CENTRAL MARYLAND CARROLL FREDERICK THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF BALLENGER CREEK, BETHESDA, BOWIE, BOYDS, BUCKEYSTOWN, CLARKSVILLE, CLINTON, COLLEGE PARK, COLUMBIA, ELDERSBURG, FOUR CORNERS, FREDERICK, GAITHERSBURG, GAMBER, GERMANTOWN, GLENMONT, GREENBELT, HISTORIC ELLICOTT CITY, MONTPELIER, PARK MILLS, SILVER SPRING, SIMPSONVILLE, SUITLAND-SILVER HILL, TANTALLON, WESTMINSTER, AND WOODSTOCK. $$
  18. yoda
    That seems odd
  19. yoda
    Fwiw, Radarscope is tagging max hail of 3.5"
  20. yoda
    FDK storm really needs a TW...
  21. yoda
    FDK cell may need a TW soon... 70mph winds and tornado possible tag in it in latest SWS
  22. yoda
    Another MCD for C into S VA into NC with STWatch needed soon in it... I guess we will get lumped into that Mesoscale Discussion 1649 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026 Areas affected...ortions of southern Virginia...western North Carolina...far northeast Tennessee...southeastern West Virginia Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 181756Z - 181900Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will continue to increase in intensity this afternoon with a risk for damaging wind gusts. Trends are being monitored and a Severe Thunderstorm Watch is likely. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms continue to develop across the higher terrain of WV, NC and VA at 1755z, and also along a confluence zone extending from northern VA into western NC. Despite weak mid-level lapse rates, diurnal heating of a moist boundary layer has contributed to MLCAPE of 2000 to 3000 J/kg and low-level lapse rates of 8.5 to 9 deg/C. In the presence of minimal CINH, storms should continue to increase in coverage through the afternoon and move generally east. Shear in the cloud-bearing layer will average 20-25 kts across northern portions of the discussion area and 15-20 kts farther south, sufficient for updraft organization and a risk for damaging wind gusts. Trends are being monitored and a Severe Thunderstorm Watch will be needed shortly. ..Bunting/Thompson.. 07/18/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX... LAT...LON 36938187 37458132 37957998 38207909 38197842 37907734 37557681 36927645 36077666 35487802 35237929 35118087 35298160 35678207 36228209 36938187 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
  23. yoda
  24. yoda
    Just appeared to in like last 5 minutes if you put radar in motion
  25. yoda
    DPs are in the 75-80 range across the region as temperatures rise into the low 90s
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