LWX seems interested - this afternoon AFD for next weekend threat
As we move into the weekend, attention will turn to a storm system
approaching from the south and west. By Friday night, this system
will be located over the southern Plains. The initially closed upper
low is modeled to transition into more of an open wave and
potentially take on a negative tilt as it tracks east-northeastward
toward our area. With the system taking on a negative tilt, there
could be a corresponding strong area of low pressure at the surface,
with access to ample moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. As one would
expect seven days out, there is still considerable spread with
respect to the track of this system, but most solutions cluster
somewhere between a track into the eastern Ohio Valley and along the
coast just off to our south and east. Probabilities for substantial
QPF continue to increase. If the storm were to take a favorable
track off to our south and east, some or all of this could occur as
snow across portions of the area. Synoptically speaking, most
solutions don`t have a strong area of high pressure off to the
northeast, which could work against a snow solution, but the airmass
in place ahead of the system is fairly cold/dry, which could create
a decent amount of cold air in-situ once precipitated into. We`ll
continue to monitor this system over the upcoming week, as it has
the potential to be the first substantial winter storm of the season
(and really last two seasons) to the east of the mountains.