yoda

NOT saying this will be the same or is... but does this have any parallels to Commuteagddeon? Like wasn't that just cold enough as well?

Still snowing n va into DC into MD at 159

153 SLP near ORF... DCA ripping... but line us close

Moderate snow DCA 150

Snowing near Richmond at 147

Light snow around at 144

Anyone have the 00z ICON snow map? I'm guessing it's like 2-4 inches lol

Well... good start to the night as 00z ICON holds and looks a little bit colder

18z won't be as amped as 12z... let's see if that translates into anything

LWX seems interested - this afternoon AFD for next weekend threat As we move into the weekend, attention will turn to a storm system approaching from the south and west. By Friday night, this system will be located over the southern Plains. The initially closed upper low is modeled to transition into more of an open wave and potentially take on a negative tilt as it tracks east-northeastward toward our area. With the system taking on a negative tilt, there could be a corresponding strong area of low pressure at the surface, with access to ample moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. As one would expect seven days out, there is still considerable spread with respect to the track of this system, but most solutions cluster somewhere between a track into the eastern Ohio Valley and along the coast just off to our south and east. Probabilities for substantial QPF continue to increase. If the storm were to take a favorable track off to our south and east, some or all of this could occur as snow across portions of the area. Synoptically speaking, most solutions don`t have a strong area of high pressure off to the northeast, which could work against a snow solution, but the airmass in place ahead of the system is fairly cold/dry, which could create a decent amount of cold air in-situ once precipitated into. We`ll continue to monitor this system over the upcoming week, as it has the potential to be the first substantial winter storm of the season (and really last two seasons) to the east of the mountains.

168 12z Euro has 986 east of ACY... let's see how it gets there

Storm is just about over at that time

12z ICON is stuck at 138 lol

Looks like 06z GEFS is going the offshore route at 168

Its not like its going to be 25 degrees lol... this is going to be a heavy wet snow if we get the snowstorm with temps likely between 30-33

I mean the h7 and h85 vort/low pass look good to me... I am guessing its just the strength of the cold air? Or is it just because its in C VA instead of S VA we lose lol

Looks like the h5 gets captured just a tad too far north for i95 corridor to join in the fun if i am looking at the map right?

that gradient ETA -- Better snow map posted below

Finally snowing in DC at 180 lol still light snow at 186

983mb over RIC at 177

i81 SMOKED CRUSHED at 174

i95 corridor is not going to like this run... i81 will

Ripping snow BR and west at 168

Going to be close at 165...

06z GFS has the 4th storm bombing further west and deeper at 120 (970mb) compared to the 00z run at 126 (983mb) Though by 138... the 06z SLP is in the general vicinity of where the 00z SLP is.... just 2mb deeper -- so looks like the 50/50 low remains strong