yoda

Icon or gfs?

Hope Stormtracker doesn't mind, but 1007mb SLP in SE SC at 168

Northern Stream

@MN Transplant will probably be surprised by the HWW

Confirmed https://www.fcps.edu/

High Wind Warning up for Calvert and St. Mary's counties

It looked consolidated back in the Midwest... after that it just fell apart

It's like a 4 hour period of snow for the 15th... it's very disheveled looking

Mod snow at 177

12z GFS "looks" good at 156...

It was the Euro at 00z that showed it

Yup,.. damn Strong Winds: An unprecedented LLJ is likely to develop over the eastern half of the CWA Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night as the main surface low moves through. Current soundings from the GFS, ECMWF, and NAM12 all have 50-70KT at 925mb, and 70-90KT at 850mb. The evening sounding on Tuesday at IAD could break observed wind records at 925mb, 850mb, and 700mb.

Decent snowstorm on Day 9

LWX still seems very concerned about damaging winds in their AFD Strong Winds: The kinematic profile with this system is very concerning as all models indicate a strong LLJ overspreading the area east of the Blue Ridge. Current soundings from the GFS, ECMWF, and NAM12 all have 50-70KT at 925mb, and 70-90KT at 850mb. Generally, southerly wind events have a hard time mixing down fully in this area, but even if just half of that wind reaches the surface, it could result in numerous instances of wind damage. Over the waters, this means Gale conditions are likely, and could possibly approach storm force (gusts of 50KT or greater).

Randy didn't, no, but there is a YouTube parody along the same lines with severe weather

I'm looking for it... including the severe weather one

LWX added those two counties to the WSW Eta - from updated evening AFD as of 9pm from LWX NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... The evening model runs have shown an increase snow potential and snow amounts for parts of northern Maryland and western MD. A combination of a favorable thermal pattern along with increasing chances for near warning criteria snow has led to the expansion of the winter storm watches to include Carroll and Garrett Counties in Maryland.

18z 3km NAM is over half an inch of ice in the central Blue Ridge

Afternoon AFD from LWX om the threat SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Chilly conditions continue Friday night as lows drop to the 20s across the area, even as mid to high level clouds overspread the region. A southern stream upper trough moves east across the Mid- South toward the OH Valley/Mid-Atlantic Saturday into Saturday night. An associated surface low pressure will move across the Southeast, gaining strength/structure as it moves across eastern NC Saturday, then offshore just south of the Delmarva peninsula Saturday night. Precipitation begins to overspread the region from southwest to northeast early Saturday morning. P-type is likely to start as light snow given temp profiles mostly below freezing, especially west of I- 95. Models continue to fluctuate with storm track and inherent thermal profiles. Greatest potential for the H85 temps to remain below freezing is generally northwest of US-15, hence where the Winter Storm Watch was issued. As a result, a wintry mix is likely to start to the east of this area, then quickly transition to a cold rain. The chance for any accumulating snow just along/east of I-95 looks low at this time. A wintry mix of rain, snow, and freezing rain is likely west of US- 15, and especially west of the Blue Ridge where a CAD is likely to setup. Looking specifically at freezing rain, chance for this p-type has increased the most across the Central Shenandoah Valley and Central VA Blue Ridge, including some of the foothills east of the Blue Ridge. Accumulating snow is most likely along and west of the Blue Ridge, especially in the northern Shenandoah Valley west to the Allegheny Front. Greatest prob for 6" is from the Allegheny Front to the Washington County, MD area. However, there are concerns sleet may mix in and lower totals. As the surface low makes its closest approach, there will be some decent FGEN forcing to produce higher precip totals in any banding features. But it is way too early to say when/where/what p-type that is going to be. Given the event onset is beyond 48 hours, the current forecast is subject to change. Continue to monitor the progress of this system. The entire system quickly crosses the area Saturday night, though the upper trough remains over the area through the weekend. Lingering moisture on the backside of the low and strong forcing aloft will result in additional rain/snow showers Saturday night.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 221 PM EST Thu Jan 4 2024 MDZ501-502-VAZ026>031-038>040-501-505-507-WVZ050>053-055-501>506- 050330- /O.NEW.KLWX.WS.A.0001.240106T1200Z-240107T0000Z/ Extreme Western Allegany-Central and Eastern Allegany-Rockingham- Shenandoah-Frederick VA-Page-Warren-Clarke-Greene-Madison- Rappahannock-Northern Fauquier-Western Loudoun- Northern Virginia Blue Ridge-Hampshire-Morgan-Berkeley-Jefferson- Hardy-Western Grant-Eastern Grant-Western Mineral-Eastern Mineral- Western Pendleton-Eastern Pendleton- 221 PM EST Thu Jan 4 2024 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow accumulations in excess of five inches, and ice accumulations in excess of one-quarter of an inch are possible. * WHERE...Portions of western Maryland, central, northern, and northwest Virginia and eastern and panhandle West Virginia. * WHEN...From Saturday morning through Saturday evening. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 221 PM EST Thu Jan 4 2024 VAZ025-036-037-503-504-508-050330- /O.NEW.KLWX.WS.A.0001.240106T0900Z-240107T0000Z/ Augusta-Nelson-Albemarle-Western Highland-Eastern Highland- Central Virginia Blue Ridge- 221 PM EST Thu Jan 4 2024 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow accumulations in excess of five inches, and ice accumulations in excess of one-quarter of an inch are possible. * WHERE...Portions of central and western Virginia. * WHEN...From late Friday night through Saturday evening. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 221 PM EST Thu Jan 4 2024 MDZ003-004-050330- /O.NEW.KLWX.WS.A.0001.240106T1500Z-240107T0300Z/ Washington-Frederick MD- 221 PM EST Thu Jan 4 2024 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow accumulations in excess of five inches, and ice accumulations in excess of one-quarter of an inch are possible. * WHERE...Washington and Frederick MD Counties. * WHEN...From Saturday morning through Saturday evening. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation. &&

Looking at PW through 144... looks like 00z UKIE would follow what the GFS and CMC have