yoda

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1105 AM EST Fri Jan 18 2019 [cut] && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... A strong area of low pressure will approach the region from the Tennessee Valley on Saturday. Warm advection aloft will overspread the area late Saturday morning through early Saturday afternoon allowing precipitation to breakout. Precip looks to arrive a bit earlier than previously anticipated, but still should transition fairly quickly from snow to sleet to freezing rain and then, in the warmer spots, rain. With high pressure situated to the north, and model guidance indicating a small wedge of higher pressure holding strong to the west of the Blue Ridge/East of the Allegheny Front, there is high concern that cold air will remain locked in at the surface much longer across portions of West Virginia Panhandle, Western/Northern Maryland and the northern Shenandoah Valley. All model guidance has a strong southerly low-level jet (on the order of 50 kts) blasting warm air in aloft Saturday evening across the entire CWA. If cold air remains locked in at the surface for the aforementioned areas, a prolonged period of freezing rain or sleet could ensue. Temps were trended down and ice amounts trended up based on this. Some expansion of the winter storm watch is possible later today.

12z UKIE at 144 has a 999mb SLP in AL... though I am not sure that is good

Yikes... almost half an inch of ice in W MD and E WV? Hope that doesn't happen

I believe the 00z EURO was the "monster snowstorm". I believe we got a phase just a tad too early and it ran the i95 corridor... a few hours later for the phase and we all enjoy lots of snow

I prefer when Ji called me Yogi lol Just saying what it looked like. If it had been more consolidated, then we would have had a bigger hit IMO. DT has 15 inches from the combined waves as the jackpot from the combined two part system lol

Or let Ji see it

SLP looks a lil strung out at 162 on IWM... but seems to have a lower pressure near HSE

IWM has a SLP down in SC at 156

Agreed... next few panels should be good for our region even if it is a little south looking at 144 I am hoping the EURO repeats with its monster storm but about a hundred miles further east lol

12z CMC continues to go for a cutter/Ohio Valley track for the 23rd-25th time period threat

Looks like we get some precip from it anyway hours 144-156... but there is minimal cold air around

Yes, by like 400 miles lol. 12z was running through the Great Lakes

Jesus... Euro drops the arctic hammer day 10 into the Plains and Great Lakes... -35 to close to -40c 850s in MN /WI at 240 Looks like a visit from the PV

00z Euro is a monster storm day 6 into 7... but runs basically along i95 corridor and is just a tad warm Day 6 is 1002mb SLP in S GA and day 7 its 973mb SLP just northeast of Boston by 50 miles or so

Measured around 1.5 to 1.6 inches, yes? Anybody near me agree?

Ukie at 144 has an SLP down by Mobile Alabama... looks GFS-esque

Ukie at 60 is over PHL... so nope lol

GFS also suggests mid 20s during the snow as well

While the CMC decides on a large cutter again lol Then again, the GFS is basically 6 days away...

Well then call the Superintendent

Yup, Prince William is closed tomorrow And Alexandria has declared a 2 hour delay as well

Arlington county schools 2 hr delay tomorrow

How many tenths did the model take away from DC?

FWIW, CTP went WSWatch for the counties bordering the Mason-Dixon line And PIT issued WSWatch for Garrett/Tucker/Preston