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yoda

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  1. yoda
    seeing some breaks in the clouds here with some filtered sunshine... looks like maybe an hour or 2 of sun? Everything is moving in a NE direction
  2. yoda
    Updated Morning AFD from LWX for this afternoon's severe risk:
  3. yoda
    Darrow/Gleason were the writers of the 0600 Day 1 OTLK @C.A.P.E. @high risk @Kmlwx
  4. yoda
    SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK has 5% hail, 15% wind, and 5% tornado for DC and Baltimore metro regions as well as all of the Eastern Shore and Delaware into SE PA and S NJ
  5. yoda
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2019 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH CAROLINAS INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind and isolated tornadoes are expected from North Carolina into the Middle Atlantic Friday. Isolated damaging wind gusts are also possible over northern Utah, southeast Idaho, southwest Wyoming and northwest Colorado. Other storms may produce a few strong wind gusts over a portion of the Florida Peninsula. ...Carolinas to the Middle Atlantic region... Southern-stream shortwave trough will deamplify as it becomes absorbed within the base of an amplifying northern-stream trough and move off the Atlantic Seaboard early Friday. The northern-stream trough will continue through the Carolinas and Middle Atlantic region during the day accompanied by a cold front. Modest low-level moisture with dewpoints in the upper 50s to lower 60s F will advect through the warm sector along a 50 kt low-level jet. This in conjunction with some cloud breaks will destabilize the boundary layer with MLCAPE from 500-1000 J/kg possible. Some thunderstorms may be ongoing along the NC coast early Friday in association with the leading shortwave trough. Farther upstream, storms are expected to intensify along and ahead of the cold front as the boundary layer destabilizes from VA into NC and possibly as far south as SC. Strengthening mid-upper wind profiles accompanying the northern-stream shortwave trough will support 40-45 kt effective bulk shear supportive of embedded organized structures with storms developing within the evolving squall line and some supercells with any storms developing ahead of the line. Damaging wind appears to be the main threat, but isolated tornadoes are also possible. Severe threat should end by early evening as the cold front moves offshore. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 5% - Slight Wind: 15% - Slight Hail: 5% - Marginal ..Dial.. 04/25/2019
  6. yoda
    SLGT risk issued for DC metro... MRGL pushed back west to around i81 corridor on updated Day 2... damaging winds main threat but also chance for a few tornadoes
  7. yoda
    Sounds good... what did you think of the Euro and does the HRDPS have any value for severe weather? @losetoa6 mentioned both in the main disco thread ETA: Good call on the MRGL risk
  8. yoda
    Lol The Reston EF0 tornado in western Fairfax County was about 25 miles NW of me. I consider that close by... but to each his own I guess
  9. yoda
    Federalsburg is 22 miles away from Greensboro... or 25 minutes or so
  10. yoda
    https://mobile.twitter.com/iembot_lwx/status/1119408944525578240
  11. yoda
    BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 828 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2019 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Northeastern Washington County in north central Maryland... * Until 845 PM EDT. * At 827 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located over Wayne Heights, or near Waynesboro, moving northeast at 55 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...For those in the direct path of a tornado touchdown, flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Damage to roofs, siding, and windows may occur. Mobile homes may be damaged or destroyed. Tree damage is likely. * Locations impacted include... Smithsburg, Cavetown, Leitersburg and Ringgold.
  12. yoda
    BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 821 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2019 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Stafford County in northern Virginia... Eastern Orange County in central Virginia... The northwestern City of Fredericksburg in central Virginia... Southeastern Fauquier County in northern Virginia... Southeastern Culpeper County in northern Virginia... The City of Manassas Park in northern Virginia... Southwestern Prince William County in northern Virginia... The City of Manassas in northern Virginia... North central Spotsylvania County in central Virginia... * Until 900 PM EDT. * At 820 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from 7 miles southeast of Warrenton to 7 miles southeast of Bealeton to 9 miles northwest of Spotsylvania, moving northeast at 30 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... Stafford, Dale City, Fredericksburg, Linton Hall, Montclair, Bull Run, Manassas, Sudley, Manassas Park, New Baltimore, Independent Hill, Nokesville, Catlett, Calverton, Midland, Roseville, Garrisonville, Casanova, Ramoth and Heflin.
  13. yoda
    BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 806 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2019 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Northeastern Washington County in north central Maryland... Northwestern Frederick County in north central Maryland... Northern Jefferson County in the Panhandle of West Virginia... * Until 830 PM EDT. * At 806 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located near Shepherdstown, moving northeast at 55 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...For those in the direct path of a tornado touchdown, flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Damage to roofs, siding, and windows may occur. Mobile homes may be damaged or destroyed. Tree damage is likely. * Locations impacted include... Robinwood, Boonsboro, Smithsburg, Mount Aetna, Mount Lena, San Mar, Wolfsville, Myersville, Cavetown, Keedysville, Sharpsburg, Fairplay, Chewsville and Pleasant Walk.
  14. yoda
    BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Wakefield VA 740 PM EDT FRI APR 19 2019 The National Weather Service in Wakefield has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Eastern Louisa County in central Virginia... Northwestern Goochland County in central Virginia... * Until 815 PM EDT. * At 740 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located over Fife, or near Hadensville, moving northeast at 45 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. * This dangerous storm will be near... Hadensville around 745 PM EDT. Louisa around 800 PM EDT. Mineral around 805 PM EDT.
  15. yoda
    BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 710 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2019 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Orange County in central Virginia... Southeastern Culpeper County in northern Virginia... Northwestern Spotsylvania County in central Virginia... * Until 800 PM EDT. * At 709 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Ferncliff, or 7 miles southwest of Louisa, moving north at 50 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... Raccoon Ford, Mine Run, Rhoadesville, Parker, Rapidan, Verdiersville, Everona, Burr Hill, Locust Grove, Flat Run, Gold Dale, Thornhill, Nasons, Winston, Mitchells, Lahore, Lake Of The Woods and Unionville.
  16. yoda
    BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Wakefield VA 708 PM EDT FRI APR 19 2019 The National Weather Service in Wakefield has issued a * Tornado Warning for... North central Louisa County in central Virginia... * Until 745 PM EDT. * At 707 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located over Ferncliff, or 7 miles northwest of Hadensville, moving northeast at 45 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. * This dangerous storm will be near... Louisa and Mineral around 720 PM EDT. Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Wares Crossroads, Louisa Airport, Vawter Corner, Byrd Mill and Trevilians.
  17. yoda
    Fluvanna County tornado warned storm is on a path to DC metro region... let's see if it maintains its strength/severity
  18. yoda
    @C.A.P.E. STW issued for S and SE PA till 11 pm - for CTP CWA
  19. yoda
    BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 615 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2019 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Northwestern Washington County in north central Maryland... East central Allegany County in western Maryland... Northern Morgan County in the Panhandle of West Virginia... * Until 645 PM EDT. * At 615 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located near Berkeley Springs, or 9 miles southwest of Hancock, moving northeast at 35 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...For those in the direct path of a tornado touchdown, flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Damage to roofs, siding, and windows may occur. Mobile homes may be damaged or destroyed. Tree damage is likely. * This dangerous storm will be near... Berkeley Springs around 620 PM EDT. Hancock around 630 PM EDT. Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Great Cacapon, Forest Park, Lineburg, Berryville, Spohrs Crossroads, Sleepy Creek, Shady Grove, Fishers Bridge, Little Orleans and Pecktonville.
  20. yoda
    Those tornado warned storms on the RNK/AKQ border are moving NE toward the DC metro region in the next couple of hours I believe
  21. yoda
    https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0408.html Mesoscale Discussion 0408 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2019 Areas affected...DC...VA...MD...WV Concerning...Tornado Watch 90... Valid 192032Z - 192130Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 90 continues. SUMMARY...Severe threat should increase across ww90 over the next few hours. DISCUSSION...Leading edge of large-scale forcing for ascent appears to be approaching the southern portions of ww90. Multiple long-lived supercells have evolved ahead of a broken squall line across northern NC into southern VA. This convective regime is expected to shift north into the southern portions of ww90 within the next few hours. Tornado threat will be primarily confined to the discrete supercells; however, brief squall-line tornadoes could be noted within an otherwise gusty squall line. Severe threat should spread from south to north into the early evening hours. ..Darrow.. 04/19/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RNK...
  22. yoda
    Guess we are watching the storms in S VA right now moving NE
  23. yoda
    Day 1 MOD RISK issued for C VA into SC
  24. yoda
    Haven't seen numbers that high around here in quite a while
  25. yoda
    00z HRRR crushes the region between 23z and 01z with the main line and has a nice UD Helicity swath right over DC
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