yoda

Yes... the GFS decided that tonight in its run to do that...

Eskimo Joe's last 2 posts made me think of this gif

SandySurvivor

This storm won't be as bad as Sandy was per one special poster

Good morning

Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Topeka KS 154 AM CDT Fri Aug 30 2019 KSC031-111-139-300715- /O.CON.KTOP.SV.W.0298.000000T0000Z-190830T0715Z/ Osage-Coffey-Lyon- 154 AM CDT Fri Aug 30 2019 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 215 AM CDT FOR SOUTHWESTERN OSAGE...WESTERN COFFEY AND LYON COUNTIES... At 154 AM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from 4 miles north of New Strawn to near Hamilton, moving southeast at 50 mph. These are very dangerous storms. HAZARD...90 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Trained weather spotters. At 153 AM CDT...trained spotters estimated 70 mph wind gusts in Hartford. IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be heavily damaged or destroyed. Homes and businesses will have substantial roof and window damage. Expect extensive tree damage and power outages. Locations impacted include... Emporia, Burlington, Lebo, Americus, Olpe, New Strawn, Hartford, Gridley, Neosho Rapids, Reading and John Redmond Reservoir.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Topeka KS 137 AM CDT Fri Aug 30 2019 The National Weather Service in Topeka has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Southwestern Anderson County in east central Kansas... Southwestern Osage County in east central Kansas... Coffey County in east central Kansas... Southeastern Lyon County in east central Kansas... * Until 215 AM CDT. * At 136 AM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from 4 miles southeast of Reading to 7 miles west of Madison, moving southeast at 50 mph. These are very dangerous storms. HAZARD...90 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Official observation station at the Emporia Airport. IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be heavily damaged or destroyed. Homes and businesses will have substantial roof and window damage. Expect extensive tree damage and power outages. * Locations impacted include... Burlington, Lebo, Olpe, New Strawn, Hartford, Gridley, Neosho Rapids, Westphalia, Beto Junction, John Redmond Reservoir, Melvern Lake and Le Roy. This includes Interstate 35 between mile markers 138 and 156. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... This is an EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION with tornado like wind speeds expected. Mobile homes and high profile vehicles are especially susceptible to winds of this magnitude and may be overturned. For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. These storms have the potential to cause serious injury and significant property damage. && LAT...LON 3817 9596 3817 9634 3858 9585 3804 9536 3804 9596 TIME...MOT...LOC 0636Z 329DEG 42KT 3849 9589 3817 9627 HAIL...<.75IN WIND...90MPH

How's that 1938 hurricane similarity coming along? You know, the one that was going to crush you in NJ? Hope you are safe

Hot take right here

A page over arguing the HWRF in the main thread

Looks like a mature bow echo will be coming through overnight URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 406 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1020 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northern and central Alabama Northeastern Arkansas Central and northern Mississippi Southern middle and southwestern Tennessee * Effective this Wednesday night and Thursday morning from 1020 PM until 600 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Widespread damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 80 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A well-organized cluster and separate bow echo initially over eastern Arkansas, each with a well-developed wind signature and history of severe gusts, will proceed into and across the watch area. These systems could merge as well. Severe thunderstorm wind will remain the main threat, though an embedded tornado or two also is possible.

There's a risk each day as well... don't see that at all before either I believe. I think this is like the 3rd time ever SPC has had a Day 8 risk?

LWX had a great write up in their evening AFD that I posted in the catchall severe thread... dunno what Wakefield is saying though

TOG near Fuquay-Varina... was decent for a moment looking at CC ETA: Solak posted image above

Tornado warning for DeKalb, Rutherford, Wilson and Cannon counties until 3:15pm

You can find the FV3 much faster here: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-area.php Click on GFS... it is the FV3 on there

No side dishes like extra dendrites or heavy DGZ to go?

Congrats to all... glad to see you all got crushed with heavy snow

Congrats all... hope you are all enjoying the snow

I echo this... while we complain up north, hope you guys are able to get into the action and get some good snow out of this storm.

Here's the Day 7 precip and SLP position for the 00z UKIE for you guys:

Tbh, I thought the 06z and 18z EURO runs only go out to 120?

Wow... everyone has to see this https://mobile.twitter.com/StuOstro/status/1044253347157553154

@nrgjeff Mod risk... good luck!

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 PM CDT Thu Jul 19 2018 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHERN IL/IN...CENTRAL/WESTERN KY...MIDDLE/WESTERN TN...NORTHERN MS/AL... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms associated with large hail, wind damage and a tornado threat will be possible Friday afternoon and evening across parts of the MIssissippi, Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. ...Synopsis... An anomalously strong deep layer trough and associated surface cyclone are expected to move southeastward from the upper Midwest into portions of the lower Great Lakes on Friday. The surface pattern will be complicated by one or more convectively-induced outflow boundaries, with a synoptic-scale surface trough/cold front expected to progress eastward south of the surface low through the period. A stout EML will spread eastward from the southern Plains over rich low-level moisture, resulting in a volatile thermodynamic environment developing over portions of the MS/TN/OH River Valleys and the Midwest. ...MS/TN/OH River Valleys into the Midwest... A potentially significant severe thunderstorm episode is possible across portions of the MS/TN/OH Valleys and the Midwest on Friday, though considerable uncertainty remains regarding convective evolution through the period. One or more clusters of convection will likely be ongoing Friday morning, though the remnants of these clusters are expected to push east through the day, allowing for moderate-to-strong destabilization in their wake. The strongest focus for convection will be the surface trough moving through IL/IN/OH, though this area will be somewhat removed from the stronger shear and instability, especially with northward extent. Foci for convective initiation will be more subtle further south and west, but the environment will also be much more volatile, with strong instability (MLCAPE of 2500-4000 J/kg possible) and effective shear (45-60 kt) in place. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop during the afternoon, potentially along the trailing surface boundary and also evolving out any early day elevated convection. Initially discrete storm modes will favor large hail (potentially greater than 2 inches in diameter), along with damaging wind gusts and a tornado or two. With time, evolution into one or more upscale-growing clusters is expected into the evening. Any such clusters would be capable of producing damaging wind swaths as they propagate to the southeast. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 5% - Slight Wind: 30% - Enhanced Hail: 30% SIG - Enhanced ..Dean/Dial.. 07/19/2018