yoda

TPV looks a bit more stretched out and westward at h5... and energy on back side is more NW and stronger on the 18z RGEM at 84 compared to the 18z NAM at 84

18z RGEM says its snowing in DC metro at teh end of its run... 1-3"

3pm AFD from LWX mentions end of next week as a more "traditional threat" .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Below normal temperatures and the threat for wintry precipitation headline the medium range. There is medium confidence in well below normal temperatures and dangerously cold wind chills, but the threat of snow or wintry precipitation remains highly uncertain. Anomalous ridging over the Polar regions of the Northern Hemisphere will force Arctic air southward across much of the CONUS for most of next week. The brunt of the cold will be on our doorstep locally early in the week, before spreading over the rest of the area by the middle of next week. Meanwhile, an area of low pressure - driven by a shortwave currently trapped in a cyclonic gyre over NW Canada - will likely induce an area of low pressure that will track from the Mid-South to near the Carolina or Mid-Atlantic Coast late Monday through early Wednesday. Exact timing remains uncertain, and timing of this wave with added energy from the Arctic intrusion will be crucial in determining the extent of any snow/wintry precip impacts across the Mid-Atlantic. Deterministic guidance has been attempting to come into somewhat better agreement, but the Euro (through 06z) remains a flatter/drier outlier. For this reason, ensemble means and probabilities have remained nearly steady from values 24 hours ago. As energy for this system ejects into the NW CONUS and is better sampled, guidance should get a better handle on the outcome over the next 1 to 2 days. Following this system, strong winds coupled with well below normal temperatures will likely result in wind chills in the single digits on either size of zero by early Wednesday morning, with even colder values over the higher terrain. Winds will abate a bit by Wednesday night into Thursday, though below normal temperatures will persist. By the end of next week, the aforementioned low will be absorbed in a developing cutoff near Newfoundland. This, coupled with ridging near the West Coast, and lower heights in between over the OH/TN Valley, are a more traditional setup for wintry weather locally. Therefore, the threat of wintry precipitation may re-appear by the end of next week. &&

3pm AFD from LWX .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Below normal temperatures and the threat for wintry precipitation headline the medium range. There is medium confidence in well below normal temperatures and dangerously cold wind chills, but the threat of snow or wintry precipitation remains highly uncertain. Anomalous ridging over the Polar regions of the Northern Hemisphere will force Arctic air southward across much of the CONUS for most of next week. The brunt of the cold will be on our doorstep locally early in the week, before spreading over the rest of the area by the middle of next week. Meanwhile, an area of low pressure - driven by a shortwave currently trapped in a cyclonic gyre over NW Canada - will likely induce an area of low pressure that will track from the Mid-South to near the Carolina or Mid-Atlantic Coast late Monday through early Wednesday. Exact timing remains uncertain, and timing of this wave with added energy from the Arctic intrusion will be crucial in determining the extent of any snow/wintry precip impacts across the Mid-Atlantic. Deterministic guidance has been attempting to come into somewhat better agreement, but the Euro (through 06z) remains a flatter/drier outlier. For this reason, ensemble means and probabilities have remained nearly steady from values 24 hours ago. As energy for this system ejects into the NW CONUS and is better sampled, guidance should get a better handle on the outcome over the next 1 to 2 days. Following this system, strong winds coupled with well below normal temperatures will likely result in wind chills in the single digits on either size of zero by early Wednesday morning, with even colder values over the higher terrain. Winds will abate a bit by Wednesday night into Thursday, though below normal temperatures will persist. By the end of next week, the aforementioned low will be absorbed in a developing cutoff near Newfoundland. This, coupled with ridging near the West Coast, and lower heights in between over the OH/TN Valley, are a more traditional setup for wintry weather locally. Therefore, the threat of wintry precipitation may re-appear by the end of next week. &&

Yup... CMC also showing a storm

108 is 994 inside benchmark

If we can stay on the right side... the B and W maps show a big hit

Looks like 06z Euro would have been a bit better if it went past 90... hopefully the ensembles are better

You mean this one? https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdepd

Mod snow at 120 Still snowing at 123

Lol huge ccb at 117

Oh

So... radio show?

Nothing in NYC

12z UKIE is much better... but is a i95 and west hit. 00z showed nothing FWIW

Gimme gimme

12Z CMC on the old school at 120

ZFP for DC metro from LWX at 936am MONDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of snow. Lows in the mid 20s. .TUESDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow. Highs in the mid 30s. .TUESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of snow. Lows 15 to 20. .WEDNESDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 30s.

I'd take 1-3/2-4 in a heartbeat. Yeah, I want that old Euro solution... but this is fine