yoda

I thought 7H FGEN was better to look at then 85H in regards to rates?

All of MD (excluding SE MD)/S PA/DE clean up well. reason why DC metro and most of VA being don't do as well is because there is a warm nose centered around 800mb that shows up

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 328 AM EST Sat Jan 4 2025 DCZ001-MDZ013-014-016>018-502>504-VAZ027>031-039-040-051-053>055-057- 501-502-505-506-526-527-WVZ050>053-055-502-504-041630- /O.NEW.KLWX.WS.A.0002.250106T0000Z-250107T0600Z/ District of Columbia-Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-Charles-St. Marys-Calvert-Central and Eastern Allegany-Northwest Montgomery- Central and Southeast Montgomery-Shenandoah-Frederick VA-Page- Warren-Clarke-Madison-Rappahannock-Culpeper-Fairfax- Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Stafford-King George-Northern Fauquier-Southern Fauquier-Western Loudoun-Eastern Loudoun- Northwest Prince William-Central and Southeast Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Hampshire-Morgan-Berkeley- Jefferson-Hardy-Eastern Grant-Eastern Mineral- 328 AM EST Sat Jan 4 2025 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible, with potential for some sleet and freezing rain. Total snow and sleet accumulations of 5 inches or greater and ice accumulations up to one tenth of an inch possible. A localized band with up to 10 inches of snow is possible. * WHERE...Washington DC, and portions of central, southern, and western Maryland, central, northern, and northwest Virginia, and eastern West Virginia. * WHEN...From Sunday evening through late Monday night. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the Monday morning and evening commutes.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 328 AM EST Sat Jan 4 2025 VAZ025-026-036>038-050-056-504-507-508-WVZ506-041630- /O.NEW.KLWX.WS.A.0002.250105T2100Z-250107T0300Z/ Augusta-Rockingham-Nelson-Albemarle-Greene-Orange-Spotsylvania- Eastern Highland-Northern Virginia Blue Ridge-Central Virginia Blue Ridge-Eastern Pendleton- 328 AM EST Sat Jan 4 2025 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING... * WHAT...Heavy snow, sleet, and freezing rain possible. Total snow and sleet accumulations of 5 inches or greater and ice accumulations up to one quarter of an inch possible. A localized band with up to 10 inches of snow is possible. * WHERE...Portions of central, northwest, and western Virginia and eastern West Virginia. * WHEN...From Sunday afternoon through Monday evening. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the Monday morning and evening commutes.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 328 AM EST Sat Jan 4 2025 MDZ003>006-008-011-505>508-041630- /O.NEW.KLWX.WS.A.0002.250106T0300Z-250107T0600Z/ Washington-Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore-Cecil-Southern Baltimore-Northwest Howard-Central and Southeast Howard-Northwest Harford-Southeast Harford- 328 AM EST Sat Jan 4 2025 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 5 inches or greater possible. A localized band with up to 10 inches of snow is possible. * WHERE...Portions of central, northeast, and northern Maryland. * WHEN...From Sunday evening through late Monday night. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the Monday morning and evening commutes.

Watches up from LWX

DCA barely holding on to heavy snow at 12z MON

heavy snow at DCA at 09z MON. However, EZF is pinging

Snow moves in around 05z MON for DC metro... snowing moderately DC south at 06z MON on 06z NAM. Also mod snow for WV/MD west of HGR/NW VA

06z NAM precip shield is a bit norther (as in bigger) at 39 compared to 00z 45. See in WV/OH

Looks like just a tad more confluence on the 06z NAM looking at hr 27 comparing it to 00z NAM 33?

AKQ WSWs up... 4-7 in their northern most counties bordering the LWX CWA URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Wakefield VA 250 AM EST Sat Jan 4 2025 MDZ021>025-VAZ048-064-075>078-509>512-517>522-041600- /O.NEW.KAKQ.WS.A.0001.250105T2100Z-250107T1200Z/ Dorchester-Wicomico-Somerset-Inland Worcester-Maryland Beaches- Fluvanna-Caroline-Westmoreland-Richmond-Northumberland-Lancaster- Western Louisa-Eastern Louisa-Western Hanover-Eastern Hanover- Western King William-Eastern King William-Western King and Queen- Eastern King and Queen-Western Essex-Eastern Essex- 250 AM EST Sat Jan 4 2025 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow accumulations between 4 and 7 inches and ice accumulations up to one tenth of an inch possible. * WHERE...Portions of southeast Maryland and central, east central, eastern, and north central Virginia. * WHEN...From Sunday afternoon through Tuesday morning. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the Monday morning and evening commutes.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Wakefield VA 250 AM EST Sat Jan 4 2025 VAZ060>062-068-069-082>086-090-099-513>516-041600- /O.NEW.KAKQ.WS.A.0001.250105T2100Z-250107T1200Z/ Prince Edward-Cumberland-Goochland-Amelia-Powhatan-Charles City- New Kent-Gloucester-Middlesex-Mathews-James City-Accomack-Western Chesterfield-Eastern Chesterfield (Including Col. Heights)- Western Henrico (Including the City of Richmond)-Eastern Henrico- 250 AM EST Sat Jan 4 2025 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow accumulations between 2 and 4 inches and ice accumulations up to two tenths of an inch possible. * WHERE...Portions of central, east central, eastern, and southeast Virginia generally along and north of a Farmville-Colonial Heights-Toano-Accomack line. * WHEN...From Sunday afternoon through Tuesday morning. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Monday morning and evening commutes.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Wakefield VA 250 AM EST Sat Jan 4 2025 MDZ021>025-VAZ048-064-075>078-509>512-517>522-041600- /O.NEW.KAKQ.WS.A.0001.250105T2100Z-250107T1200Z/ Dorchester-Wicomico-Somerset-Inland Worcester-Maryland Beaches- Fluvanna-Caroline-Westmoreland-Richmond-Northumberland-Lancaster- Western Louisa-Eastern Louisa-Western Hanover-Eastern Hanover- Western King William-Eastern King William-Western King and Queen- Eastern King and Queen-Western Essex-Eastern Essex- 250 AM EST Sat Jan 4 2025 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow accumulations between 4 and 7 inches and ice accumulations up to one tenth of an inch possible. * WHERE...Portions of southeast Maryland and central, east central, eastern, and north central Virginia. * WHEN...From Sunday afternoon through Tuesday morning. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the Monday morning and evening commutes.

KPHI already did. I assume CTP/LWX/AKQ will be up in 2 hours or so

Is that like an ensemble member of the 03z SREFs?

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 209 AM EST Sat Jan 4 2025 NJZ017>020-026-027-PAZ070-071-101-102-104-042015- /O.NEW.KPHI.WS.A.0001.250106T0600Z-250107T0600Z/ Gloucester-Camden-Northwestern Burlington-Ocean-Coastal Ocean- Southeastern Burlington-Delaware-Philadelphia-Western Chester- Eastern Chester-Eastern Montgomery- Including the cities of Mount Holly, Long Beach Island, Camden, Oxford, West Chester, Philadelphia, Lansdale, Kennett Square, Moorestown, Jackson, Cherry Hill, Wharton State Forest, Glassboro, Media, Honey Brook, and Norristown 209 AM EST Sat Jan 4 2025 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations between 3 and 6 inches possible. * WHERE...Portions of southern New Jersey and southeast Pennsylvania. * WHEN...From late Sunday night through late Monday night. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the Monday morning and evening commutes. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow will overspread the region late Sunday night and intensify through midday Monday. It will then gradually taper off Monday night.

Since Delware/Delmarva is in our region... URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 209 AM EST Sat Jan 4 2025 DEZ001>004-MDZ012-015-019-020-NJZ016-021>025-042015- /O.NEW.KPHI.WS.A.0001.250106T0600Z-250107T0600Z/ New Castle-Kent-Inland Sussex-Delaware Beaches-Kent MD-Queen Annes-Talbot-Caroline-Salem-Cumberland-Atlantic-Cape May-Atlantic Coastal Cape May-Coastal Atlantic- Including the cities of Dover, Chestertown, Hammonton, Ocean City, Centreville, Atlantic City, Millville, Pennsville, Wilmington, Rehoboth Beach, Georgetown, Easton, Cape May Court House, and Denton 209 AM EST Sat Jan 4 2025 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations between 5 and 9 inches possible. * WHERE...Portions of central, northern, and southern Delaware, northeast Maryland, and southern New Jersey. * WHEN...From late Sunday night through late Monday night. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the Monday morning and evening commutes. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow will overspread the region late Sunday night and intensify through midday Monday. It will then gradually taper off Monday night. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

FWIW 03z SREFs

I half expected @Deck Pic to have been posting right along with Randy lol

DCA at 09z MON on 00z EURO is +SN and 23/24 degrees

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=lwx&issuedby=LWX&product=PNS PNS for todays event

FWIW... and the "heaviest snowfall region" did move north compared to its 12z position btw

I believe @usedtobe likes Canada