yoda

1630z OTLK from SPC just added SLGT risk for most of us

CWG says 101 was the high

Oops Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 227 PM EDT Wed Aug 28 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A backdoor cold front will enter the area tonight and meander across the region through Friday. The front will return north as a warm front Saturday followed by another frontal passage early Sunday. High pressure returns for the first half of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Thunderstorms have begun to develop over southeastern OH and the northern WV panhandle. Latest HREF guidance suggests these storms will enter western MD around 21Z and track E or ESE along the Mason Dixon line or across northern/northeast MD this evening before exiting east of the Chesapeake Bay overnight. There will be a threat of damaging wind gusts given very hot and humid air mass. As far as temps this afternoon, only IAD seems on track to tie the record. BWI and DCA appear unlikely to set any new records.

Looks like a hit for you?

Pretty decent storm here... heavy pouring rain and some good gusts

Hmmm... from this mornings 0600Z SPC OTLK disco. Granted it's 0/0/5... but... ..Portions of New England into the Mid Atlantic... A 500 mb impulse/speed max will pivot around the backside of the mid-level trough and overspread portions of the Hudson Valley today, encouraging convective initiation in two zones. First, scattered multicells and perhaps transient supercells should initiate over New England and track southeast toward Cape Cod and Long Island through the afternoon. The stronger mid-level flow will contribute to straight/elongated hodographs and accompanying 30-40 kts of effective bulk (speed) shear. Strong gusts and large hail will accompany the stronger storms. The best chance for any severe wind/hail will be over southern New England, where over 1000 J/kg MLCAPE may overlap the stronger vertical shear to support stronger, longer-lived updrafts. Secondly, a cluster of multicellular/supercellular storms may develop ahead of the 500 mb speed max over the central Appalachians and track southeast toward the Atlantic Coast. Given modest low-level lapse rates and hodograph elongation, strong wind gusts may accompany these storms as well.

Intriguing discussion by Webb

Zone Forecast Product National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 133 PM EDT Sun Aug 25 2024 DCZ001-252100- District of Columbia- Including the city of Washington 133 PM EDT Sun Aug 25 2024 .THIS AFTERNOON...Sunny. Highs in the upper 80s. South winds 5 to 10 mph. .TONIGHT...Partly cloudy in the evening, then clearing. Lows in the upper 60s. South winds 5 to 10 mph. .MONDAY...Mostly sunny. A chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs in the lower 90s. West winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent. .MONDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the evening, then mostly clear after midnight. Lows around 70. West winds around 5 mph in the evening, becoming light and variable. Chance of rain 30 percent. .TUESDAY...Sunny. Highs in the lower 90s. Northwest winds around 5 mph, becoming west around 5 mph in the afternoon. .TUESDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 70s. .WEDNESDAY...Sunny, hot with highs around 100.

@weatherwiz SLGT risk added at 1730z Day 2 update... 0/15/15

He just did

Looks like a run at 100 on Wednesday

From this afternoons AFD from LWX .CLIMATE... Below is the list of daily record low temperatures for August 22. Climate Site Aug 22Forecast Low Washington-National (DCA) 51F (1923)57F Washington-Dulles (IAD) 51F (1976)50F Baltimore (BWI) 52F (1956)54F Martinsburg (MRB) 38F (1925)46F Annapolis (NAK)* 50F (2000)59F Hagerstown (HGR)* 44F (1982)47F Charlottesville (CHO)* 54F (1925)50F *records are not officially issued for these stations.

Looks like you got some decent rain right now

https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1825536397224100212

Not looking forward to the return of the 90s and the return of the heat next week after the next few days weather

KOKX 3:12am LSR preliminary summary report is pages long https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=okx&issuedby=OKX&product=LSR

Flash Flood Statement National Weather Service New York NY 317 AM EDT Mon Aug 19 2024 NYC103-190830- /O.CON.KOKX.FF.W.0028.000000T0000Z-240819T0830Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Suffolk NY- 317 AM EDT Mon Aug 19 2024 ...FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK COUNTY... ...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR WEST CENTRAL SUFFOLK COUNTY... At 317 AM EDT, The heavy rainfall has moved east of the warned area. Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms produced between 6 and 10 inches of rainfall across the area since 9 pm, with hourly rainfall rates as high as 3 to 4 inches per hour. Significant and widespread flood impacts have been reported, and will continue overnight. This is a FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY for Northwestern Suffolk County. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. SEEK HIGHER GROUND NOW! HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. SOURCE...Radar. IMPACT...This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. Life threatening flash flooding of basements, low water crossings, small creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses is occurring. Some locations that will experience flash flooding include... Brentwood, Commack, Huntington Station, Centereach, Deer Park, Hauppauge, Ronkonkoma, Huntington, Stony Brook, Middle Island, Port Jefferson, Wading River, Northport, Coram, Dix Hills, Smithtown, Melville, Farmingville, Rocky Point and Mount Sinai. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... This is an extremely dangerous and life-threatening situation. Do not attempt to travel unless you are fleeing an area subject to flooding or under an evacuation order. Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the dangers of flooding. If you are in a basement, be prepared to move to a higher floor. && LAT...LON 4094 7334 4095 7329 4092 7321 4093 7317 4097 7317 4099 7312 4098 7305 4099 7279 4092 7278 4069 7343 4087 7346 4087 7348 4091 7351 4095 7336 FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CATASTROPHIC $$

Guess you got more than .002

Om @EastCoast NPZ doorstep... nice looking storm

Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 10pm https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0634.html URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 634 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 200 PM EDT Sun Aug 18 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of District Of Columbia Delaware Central and Eastern Maryland New Jersey Southeast New York Eastern Pennsylvania Northern Virginia Eastern Panhandle of West Virginia Coastal Waters * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 200 PM until 1000 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms will increase in coverage through the afternoon across the watch area. The more intense storms will pose a risk of locally damaging wind gusts and hail. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 85 statute miles east and west of a line from 55 miles east of Charlottesville VA to 40 miles east northeast of Wilkesbarre PA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

Severe Thunderstorm Watch coming soon https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1943.html Mesoscale Discussion 1943 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1209 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 Areas affected...southeast New York...New Jersey...eastern Pennsylvania...Maryland...and northern Virginia. Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 181709Z - 181845Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorms are likely this afternoon and evening. A severe thunderstorm watch will be issued by mid-afternoon. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have started to develop across the Appalachians from central Pennsylvania into southern New York as cold-air advection aloft overspread the region. Farther east, some inhibition remains across eastern Pennsylvania amid broken cloudcover. However, this stratus deck has started to erode and should allow for significant surface heating over the next 1 to 2 hours. Under the influence of weak height falls and cyclonic flow aloft, expect scattered thunderstorm development within the uncapped environment from eastern Pennsylvania to eastern Virginia. 20 to 25 knots of effective shear (per RAP forecast soundings) will support some multicell organization with a primary threat from downbursts. An additional round of storms is possible this afternoon/evening as storms which develop over the mountains move into the lower elevations with some congealing into one or more linear segments possible. ..Bentley/Hart.. 08/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...AKQ...CTP...LWX...