yoda

LMK was going all in in morning disco it would appear

Then you will like how SPC went ENH: Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 AM CDT Thu Jul 19 2018 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms associated with large hail, wind damage and a tornado threat will be possible Friday afternoon and evening across parts of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. ...Ohio and Tennessee Valleys... An upper-level trough will move into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys on Friday as an unseasonably strong mid-level jet moves through the southwestern side of the system. At the surface, a low is forecast to move east-southeastward across northern Illinois during the day as a cold front advances eastward across the mid Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the front, a very moist airmass should be in place with surface dewpoints in the lower 70s F. This should enable a corridor of moderate to strong instability to develop ahead of the front by afternoon. As low-level convergence increases along the front, thunderstorms are forecast to form during the early to mid afternoon in the mid Mississippi Valley with the storms moving southeastward across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys during the late afternoon and early evening. Forecast soundings for Paducah, KY, Evansville, IN and Louisville, KY at 00Z on Saturday show MLCAPE values of 2500 to 3000 J/kg, 0-6 km shear of 40 to 50 kt and steep mid-level lapse rates. This environment should be favorable for supercells with large hail. Hailstones of greater than 2 inches will be possible with the most intense cells. As the low-level jet strengthens during the early evening, 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is forecast to reach the 200 to 250 m2/s2 range. This should be enough for a tornado threat with the more dominant supercells. Storm coverage is expected to increase markedly by early evening as an MCS organizes across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. In response, the wind-damage threat should gradually increase during the late afternoon and early evening as supercells or bowing line segments move southeastward across the instability corridor. At this time, the models are in good agreement concerning Friday's scenario. The environment will likely support a substantial severe threat across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys so this outlook includes an upgrade to enhanced risk. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 5% - Slight Wind: 30% - Enhanced Hail: 30% - Enhanced ..Broyles.. 07/19/2018

Through the first 15 days of July (and in fact, the 16th also), only a trace of rain was observed at Reagan National Airport. This is the only time on record, dating back to 1871, that no measurable rain fell in the first 15 days of July. The old low benchmark of 0.08" was set in 1900. Normal rainfall for the first 15 days of July is 1.86 inches, and back in 1905, the wettest first 15 days of July brought 7.05" of rain. https://www.weather.gov/lwx/dryjuly2018

New Day 1 has enhanced risk... 30 percent wind

I don't have any threads saved that I know of, but I'll check to see if i have anything on my old flash drives or saved on my computer somewhere

Thank you for looking that up for me - I greatly appreciate it

Rodney, Topper Shutt on the 6 o'clock news stated that if DCA hits 80 degrees tomorrow, it would be the earliest 80 degree record in DCA history - prior record was Feb 24, 1930. Didn't we have an 80 degree temp in Jan or Feb of 1998 during the 1997-1998 super el nino?

7 day map had you over an inch http://water.weather.gov/precip/index.php?analysis_date=1518393600&lat=38.9337750000&location_name=MD&location_type=state&lon=-77.2668460000&precip_layer=0.75&product=observed&recent_type=today&rfc_layer=-1&state_layer=0.75&hsa_layer=-1&county_layer=0.75&time_frame=last7days&time_type=recent&units=eng&zoom=7&domain=current

Good to see you all getting some more decent snows... just have it include us some more next time

Good luck down there all... Hope you get some decent snows

This thread will have a drought of posts

Tornado warning up by RIC metro

Meteocentre goes out to 144... but precipitation and h5 only goes out to 72

Not sure if where this goes... so if not here please tell me where

10 16 09 13 00 96 I think that makes sense... was out of town for 96... anything before that I don't remember/too young to remember

Thanks all of you for putting this stuff together

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2016012112&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=060

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 1032 AM EST SUN JAN 17 2016 VAZ048-060>062-064>069-079>083-087>090-509>520-171800- FLUVANNA-PRINCE EDWARD-CUMBERLAND-GOOCHLAND-CAROLINE-MECKLENBURG- LUNENBURG-NOTTOWAY-AMELIA-POWHATAN-BRUNSWICK-DINWIDDIE- PRINCE GEORGE-CHARLES CITY-NEW KENT-GREENSVILLE-SUSSEX-SURRY- JAMES CITY-WESTERN LOUISA-EASTERN LOUISA-WESTERN HANOVER- EASTERN HANOVER-WESTERN CHESTERFIELD-EASTERN CHESTERFIELD- WESTERN HENRICO-EASTERN HENRICO-WESTERN KING WILLIAM- EASTERN KING WILLIAM-WESTERN KING AND QUEEN- EASTERN KING AND QUEEN- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FARMVILLE...GOOCHLAND...SOUTH HILL... CREWE...LAWRENCEVILLE...PETERSBURG...HOPEWELL...EMPORIA... WAKEFIELD...WILLIAMSBURG...LOUISA...MINERAL...ASHLAND... MECHANICSVILLE...MIDLOTHIAN...BON AIR...CHESTERFIELD...CHESTER... COLONIAL HEIGHTS...RICHMOND...SANDSTON...AYLETT...KING WILLIAM... WEST POINT...KING AND QUEEN COURTHOUSE 1032 AM EST SUN JAN 17 2016 ...SNOW AFFECTING CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA... SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. SNOW WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY TO ONE MILE OR LESS. ACCUMULATION WILL AVERAGE AROUND ONE INCH AND ACCUMULATE MAINLY ON THE GRASS AND ELEVATED SURFACES. MOTORISTS SHOULD BE ALERT FOR REDUCED VISIBILITY DUE TO AREAS OF SNOW. DRIVE AT REDUCED SPEEDS AND USE LOW BEAM HEADLIGHTS.

From Broyles... Day 4 OTLK:

Anything before 2003 I don't remember much of, so I am basing my ratings after that storm. In '96, I was stuck in FL for my grandparents' 50th wedding aniversary, so I missed that storm completely... it was hell to get a flight back into DCA from JAX... Jan 2000 -- All I really remember was listening to my weather radio and hoping beyond hope Bob Ryan was wrong (that we would get grazed by the SLP at best, one inch at most) and hearing my weather radio go off ~10PM and WSWarnings being issued for 4-8 inches for us... then 6-12 later that night and so on. I remember running downstairs to my dad and telling him -- he didn't believe me until he saw the warnings himself 2009-10 season as a whole was the best... I remember being on the computer alot where I work and not getting much done during the December storm and the February storms since I was tracking the storms so much... luckily most of the admin knows I am a "weather nerd" so they let me do some model watching as long as I did some work If I had to pick one, probably the Feb 5-6 storm first