yoda

Short Term Forecast National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 412 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2020 DCZ001-MDZ013-504-506-VAZ053-054-130900- District of Columbia-Central and Southeast Montgomery-Prince Georges-Central and Southeast Howard-Fairfax-Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria- 412 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2020 ...VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WASHINGTON METRO AREA... At 4 AM EDT, very heavy rain was moving northeast out of northern Virginia into the Washington metro area. As it moves through, this will cause hazardous driving conditions and poor drainage flooding between 4 and 6 this morning. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

LWX morning disco on our threat

Thats new (re bolded)... never seen that before BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 357 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2020 The National Weather Service in Pittsburgh has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Garrett County in western Maryland... Tucker County in northeastern West Virginia... Preston County in northeastern West Virginia... * Until 500 AM EDT. * At 356 AM EDT, the back end of severe showers and isolated thunderstorms were located along a line extending from 6 miles northwest of Newburg to near Belington, moving northeast at 65 mph. HAZARD...Wind gusts to 65 mph. SOURCE...Radar. IMPACT...Expect damage to trees and power lines, resulting in some power outages. * Locations impacted include... Kingwood... Mountain Lake Park... Oakland... Parsons... Terra Alta... Davis... Thomas... Rowlesburg... Bittinger... Grantsville... Loch Lynn Heights... Friendsville... This includes the following highways... Interstate 68 in Maryland between mile markers 1 and 29. Interstate 68 in West Virginia between mile markers 17 and 32.

DPs are approaching 60 on southerly winds across the region - https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=lwx&issuedby=LWX&product=RWR

Tornado Watch(es) coming soon in NC -- https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0373.html

Really?

So ENH risk (because of wind)... I'll go big... as usual lol... 10% TOR hatched, 15% hail, 30 % wind hatched

DPs beginning to rise through the 50s across the region

23z HRRR sounding at DCA at 16z MON

FWIW, 23z HRRR really pumps the SBCAPE in the late morning into early afternoon... 2000+ SBCAPE... you can start seeing the increased surface instability grow as soon as 14z in the SW portions of the LWX CWA

Hmmm... LWX keeps upgrading the Wind Advisory to HWW for more and more counties... first it was St. Marys and Calvert at 430ish... just now updated again and now includes PG/Charles/King George VA/AA counties ETA: This was reason why at 430 St. Mary's and Calvert were added to HWW per the AFD:

sorry, what do you mean by "safe" spot?

Impressive... most impressive

Seems like LWX is going for it in afternoon disco

Its probably like 20 miles S of me lol... but I would expect it to come north more tomorrow tbh. But that would depend on what goes on in the SE and western Carolinas tonight

10% hatched tor is now literally just south of DC metro... EZF is included

New Day 2 is out... ENH reaches up to around EZF... 10% hatched TOR includes CHO/RIC and is also just south of EZF

18z EURO was pretty nice per @losetoa6 re SBCAPE

45 now into DC... 60 getting closer to EZF on 21z SREFs

Even cutting in half... still ridiculous

As in like > 1000 J/KG? How much we talking lol

Not going to post them as there are many -- but the soundings across the region from the 18z NAM at 18z MON are just ridiculously silly. Something we see maybe once in a long while

So... who's staying up tonight for the 00z NAM run and the new Day 2 outlook?