yoda

Getting crushed lol

power just flickered twice here ETA: TORRENTIAL amount of rain and wind here

This was interesting to read in the MCD... bolded mine... talks about heat bursts later tonight -- https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0825.html Mesoscale Discussion 0825 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0637 PM CDT Thu Jun 04 2020 Areas affected...western Oklahoma...far eastern Texas Panhandle Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 253... Valid 042337Z - 050130Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 253 continues. SUMMARY...A cluster of storms is beginning to congeal into a line across western Oklahoma. These storms will continue moving southeast with the potential for damaging winds and large hail. DISCUSSION...Storms with a history of severe wind including reports of 70 and 80 mph and large hail (1 inch) are moving southeast across western Oklahoma. Storms are beginning to form a more coherent line with some evidence of an increasing rear inflow jet developing behind the center of the line. Surface temperatures of 95-105 F and a deep, well mixed boundary layer with surface dewpoint depressions of 35-50 F are likely to contribute to efficient mixing of strong to damaging wind gusts to the surface. If the line continues to organize, the threat for damaging winds will increase in the short term. Large hail will also remain possible. These storms will begin to weaken after sunset, but the severe threat will remain for the next 2-4 hours. As these storms begin to collapse later tonight, strong winds could emanate outward from the cluster with heat bursts possible.

Front Royal area storm that had been moving NE has turned right and moving east now per latest STW

Numerous trees down in Albermarle county Emergency management reports numerous trees down near Great Cacapon as well

Trained spotters reported damage to trees in NW Hardy county

Lol 4 warnings already from LWX... watch till 10pm... and it's too late?

SPC added a small MRGL risk for damaging winds tomorrow in their 1730z SPC OTLK update for parts of the LWX CWA

First STW of the day down in Nelson/Augusta counties... moving NE. Winds to 60mph and quarter size hail

Watch disco did mention afternoon hail threat with discrete storms which may have transient supercell characteristics too. Wind probs in the watch are 50/10... hail probs 30/20

80% chance of a watch from C VA to C PA... MCD just issued

@high risk is correct... new morning Day 1 OTLK has SLGT for most of LWX CWA... 5% hail and 15% wind 0600z OTLK disco:

Maybe some get the storms warned in N WV that are moving SE later?

Very interesting notes from SPC today about May 2020 severe weather wise

I've been watching some of what has been going on in MN/WI... and seems like HRRR was a big whiff

SPC morning Day 2 disco

SPC morning Day 2 has moved SLGT risk south some... it is now just north of a Harrisonburg, VA to EZF line.... 2/15/15

So looks like we probably have 2 chances then... Wednesday afternoon into night and then again Friday afternoon

Afternoon AFD from LWX discussing severe for Wed to Fri time period:

Has this mainly been on the NAM? Or has the GFS and EURO been having the same? And those are some large matches by hail size... probably helped by the eastward moving EML with between 7.5 and 8.0 C/KM mid level Lapse rates

Well I hope people aren't expecting 2012 to be walking through the door... cause that's just silly

I consider low to mid 90s a hot air mass with DPs near 70

Will be interesting to see what the Day 3 SPC OTLK looks like

00z NAM showing ML Lapse Rates around 7.0 C/KM for Wednesday afternoon into the evening