yoda

Uh... I hope everyone is in shelter reading the SWS

Still a good amount of action going on... 2 TWs currently in effect

00z NAM 3km sim radar looks nice until it falls apart as it approaches i95 corridor

End if its run, but 02z HRRR gets us into the mid 60s at 20z tomorrow with storms developing off to the west in WV

00z HRRR is turrible

General thunder added and a disco issued in the 1730 SPC OTLK

SPC has 4 storm reports from LWX -- https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20200226

I see 4 LSR's from LWX from last night

#2 BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1010 PM EST Wed Feb 26 2020 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Northern Stafford County in northern Virginia... Northeastern Orange County in central Virginia... Southeastern Fauquier County in northern Virginia... Southeastern Culpeper County in northern Virginia... Southwestern Prince William County in northern Virginia... North central Spotsylvania County in central Virginia... * Until 1100 PM EST. * At 1010 PM EST, a severe thunderstorm was located 10 miles southeast of Culpeper, moving northeast at 40 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... Bealeton, Nokesville, Remington, Catlett, Calverton, Midland, Stevensburg, Roseville, Garrisonville, Locust Grove, Flat Run, Heflin, Dunavant, Lake Of The Woods, Morrisville, Ruby, Somerville, Goldvein, Raccoon Ford and Lois.

930pm AFD from LWX

There's one STW by LWX... headed toward DC in an hour or so... Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 945 PM EST Wed Feb 26 2020 VAC047-113-137-270315- /O.CON.KLWX.SV.W.0011.000000T0000Z-200227T0315Z/ Madison VA-Orange VA-Culpeper VA- 945 PM EST Wed Feb 26 2020 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1015 PM EST FOR SOUTHEASTERN MADISON...CENTRAL ORANGE AND SOUTH CENTRAL CULPEPER COUNTIES... At 945 PM EST, a severe thunderstorm was located near Orange, moving northeast at 35 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. Locations impacted include... Culpeper, Orange, Gordonsville, Raccoon Ford, Rhoadesville, Rapidan, Everona, Verdiersville, Madison Run, Montpelier Station, Burr Hill, Nasons, Winston, Madison Mills, Montford, Mitchells, Old Somerset, Unionville, Somerset and Locust Dale. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building.

LWX seems a bit gungho this evening in their afternoon AFD:

Per 833pm HWO from LWX for the region:

@high risk pretty decent squall line comes roaring through the region between 02z and 05z THU on 00z 3km NAM

Still MRGL risk... but 1730z Day 2 now includes DC metro region

From this afternoon's AFD for Wed afternoon/evening:

Still looks like a chance Wednesday afternoon-evening for some storms... probably nothing severe, but would be nice to see some lightning and hear some loud rumbles of thunder...

Maybe a slight chance for a MRGL late Wednesday? From afternoon AFD from LWX:

@Kmlwx -- Here it is 60% wind.... but no hatch. According to the chart, 60% wind is highest MOD risk... 60% hatched wind is HIGH risk: Here is the event -- https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20180515

Wedges on the mall?

It was 45% wind with sig svr I was thinking of -- https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20180504

Wasn't SNE nearly in a HIGH risk last year or two years ago? They had 60% wind I think... but it wasn't hatched... or was it 45% hatched?

Nice! Congrats on the snow

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 1031 PM EST FRI FEB 7 2020 ...EF1 TORNADO CONFIRMED IN FREDERICK COUNTY MD FRIDAY MORNING FEB 7 2020... LOCATION...MONROVIA IN FREDERICK COUNTY MD DATE...FRI FEB 7, 2020 ESTIMATED TIME...7:44 AM TO 7:50 AM EST MAXIMUM EF-SCALE RATING...EF1 ESTIMATED MAXIMUM WIND SPEED...105 MPH MAXIMUM PATH WIDTH...150 YARDS PATH LENGTH...6.0 MILES BEGINNING LAT/LON...39.3427/-77.2758 ENDING LAT/LON...39.4155/-77.1917 * FATALITIES...0 * INJURIES...0 ...SUMMARY... STAFF FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE LOCATED IN STERLING, VA PERFORMED A SURVEY OF STORM DAMAGE THAT OCCURRED IN EASTERN FREDERICK COUNTY MD NEAR MONROVIA AND NEW MARKET. THIS SURVEY, COUPLED WITH RADAR ANALYSIS FROM THE KLWX WSR-88D RADAR AND AN FAA TERMINAL DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR (TIAD), CONCLUDED THAT A TORNADO RATED EF1 ON THE ENHANCED FUJITA SCALE IMPACTED PORTIONS OF EASTERN FREDERICK COUNTY MD. INITIAL DAMAGE WAS TO SEVERAL STRUCTURES AT A FARM IN THE 11000 BLOCK OF FINGERBOARD ROAD, WHERE A MACHINE SHED AND BARN WERE FLATTENED. A SILO WAS ALSO HEAVILY DAMAGED. TREE DAMAGE WAS NOTED NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF STATE ROUTES 75 AND 80. A LARGE SWATH OF TREE AND UTILITY LINE DAMAGE WAS NOTED ALONG LYNN BURKE RD NEAR OLD BARTHOLOWS RD JUST SOUTH OF I-70. THE TORNADO CROSSED I-70 AND MOVED ALONG JESSE SMITH RD WHERE MORE TREE DAMAGE (UPROOTED AND TOPPED) WAS OBSERVED. FURTHER NORTH ALONG THE 12900 BLOCK OF JESSE SMITH RD, MORE SIGNIFICANT TREE DAMAGE OCCURRED WITH NUMEROUS SOFTWOOD TREES TOPPED AT TWO RESIDENCES ALONG A CONCENTRATED DAMAGE PATH. THE TORNADO CONTINUED NORTHEAST OVER OPEN COUNTRY BEFORE CROSSING OLD ANNAPOLIS RD NEAR RAVENWOOD RD, PRODUCING EXTENSIVE TREE DAMAGE AT SEVERAL RESIDENCES. FINALLY, THE TORNADO CAUSED TREE DAMAGE AS IT CROSSED BOTTOM RD ALONG WOODVILLE BRANCH AND CONTINUED INTO A WOODED AREA THAT WAS NOT SURVEYED DUE TO IMPENDING DARKNESS. EF SCALE: THE ENHANCED FUJITA SCALE CLASSIFIES TORNADOES INTO THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES: EF0.........65 TO 85 MPH EF1.........86 TO 110 MPH EF2.........111 TO 135 MPH EF3.........136 TO 165 MPH EF4.........166 TO 200 MPH EF5.........>200 MPH * THE INFORMATION IN THIS STATEMENT IS PRELIMINARY AND SUBJECT TO CHANGE PENDING FINAL REVIEW OF THE EVENT AND PUBLICATION IN NWS STORM DATA. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE THANKS FREDERICK COUNTY MD EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT FOR THEIR ASSISTANCE IN CONDUCTING THESE SURVEYS. $$ SMZ/KJP

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 929 PM EST FRI FEB 7 2020 ...2 TORNADOES CONFIRMED IN MONTGOMERY COUNTY MD FRIDAY MORNING FEB 7 2020... .EF1 TORNADO CONFIRMED NEAR DICKERSON MD... LOCATION...DICKERSON IN WESTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY MD DATE...FRI FEB 7, 2020 ESTIMATED TIME...7:28 AM TO 7:29 AM EST MAXIMUM EF-SCALE RATING...EF1 ESTIMATED MAXIMUM WIND SPEED...95 MPH MAXIMUM PATH WIDTH...150 YARDS PATH LENGTH...1.0 MILE BEGINNING LAT/LON...39.1763/-77.4827 ENDING LAT/LON...39.1819/-77.4633 * FATALITIES...0 * INJURIES...0 ...SUMMARY... STAFF FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE LOCATED IN STERLING, VA PERFORMED A SURVEY OF STORM DAMAGE THAT OCCURRED IN WESTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY MD NEAR DICKERSON. THIS SURVEY, COUPLED WITH RADAR ANALYSIS FROM THE KLWX WSR-88D RADAR AND AN FAA TERMINAL DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR (TIAD), CONCLUDED THAT A TORNADO RATED EF1 ON THE ENHANCED FUJITA SCALE IMPACTED PORTIONS OF EXTREME WESTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY MD NEAR DICKERSON. INITIAL DAMAGE WAS NOTED IN TREES JUST WEST OF A FARM NEAR THE POTOMAC RIVER OFF MARTINSBURG ROAD. A LARGE BARN USED TO HOUSE HORSES LOST ALL OF ITS ROOF WHILE AN ADJACENT OPEN-AIR POLE BARN WAS FLATTENED. SEVERAL SMALL OUTBUILDINGS WERE DESTROYED. BLEACHERS AT A HORSE SHOWING FACILITY WERE OVERTURNED. A METAL FRAME WINDMILL TOWER WAS TOPPLED. NUMEROUS TREES, BOTH HARDWOOD AND SOFTWOOD, WERE EITHER UPROOTED OR SNAPPED. THEN THE TORNADO MOVED NORTHEAST ACROSS OPEN FIELDS. IT THEN CROSSED MARTINSBURG RD NEAR A FARMHOUSE WHERE SEVERAL LARGE TREES WERE UPROOTED AND A FARMHOUSE LOST MANY SHINGLES. NO DAMAGE WAS NOTED PAST THE FARM HOUSE. THIS TORNADO WAS NOT THE SAME ONE THAT STRUCK NEAR LEESBURG, VA EARLIER. RATHER IT WAS A SHORT-LIVED TORNADO THAT SPUN UP QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CIRCULATION THAT SPAWNED THE LEESBURG, VA EF0 TORNADO. ..EF0 TORNADO CONFIRMED NEAR BOYDS MD...... LOCATION...BOYDS IN MONTGOMERY COUNTY MD DATE...FRI FEB 7, 2020 ESTIMATED TIME...7:28 AM TO 7:29 AM EST MAXIMUM EF-SCALE RATING...EF0 ESTIMATED MAXIMUM WIND SPEED...80 MPH MAXIMUM PATH WIDTH...75 YARDS PATH LENGTH...2.3 MILES BEGINNING LAT/LON...39.1301/-77.3464 ENDING LAT/LON...39.1431/-77.3113 * FATALITIES...0 * INJURIES...0 ...SUMMARY... STAFF FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE LOCATED IN STERLING, VA PERFORMED A SURVEY OF STORM DAMAGE THAT OCCURRED IN WEST-CENTRAL MONTGOMERY COUNTY MD NEAR BOYDS. THIS SURVEY, COUPLED WITH RADAR ANALYSIS FROM THE KLWX WSR-88D RADAR AND AN FAA TERMINAL DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR (TIAD), CONCLUDED THAT A TORNADO RATED EF0 ON THE ENHANCED FUJITA SCALE IMPACTED PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL MONTGOMERY COUNTY MD NEAR BOYDS AND DAWSONVILLE. INITIAL DAMAGE WAS NOTED ON DARNESTOWN ROAD (RT 28) BETWEEN WHITE GROUND RD AND SUGARLAND RD WHERE SEVERAL SOFTWOOD TREES WERE TOPPED AND FELL ACROSS UTILITY LINES ON DARNESTOWN RD. AFTER PASSING OVER LARGELY RURAL FIELDS AND WOODLANDS THE TORNADO DAMAGED SEVERAL STRUCTURES AT A DOG TRAINING FACILITY IN THE 14000 BLOCK OF SCHAEFFER ROAD. HERE AN OPEN FACING STORAGE OUTBUILDING WAS FLATTENED. ROOFING MATERIAL CARRIED FROM THE DESTROYED OUTBUILDING DAMAGED TWO OTHER OFFICE TRAILER STRUCTURES. A 10 FOOT 2X4 IMPALED THE SIDE OF ONE OF THE OFFICE TRAILERS WHILE ANOTHER 2X4 IMPALED THE ROOF OF THE SECOND OFFICE TRAILER. SOME TREE DAMAGE WAS NOTED JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF THIS FACILITY BUT ALL DAMAGE ENDED SHORTLY THEREAFTER. EF SCALE: THE ENHANCED FUJITA SCALE CLASSIFIES TORNADOES INTO THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES: EF0.........65 TO 85 MPH EF1.........86 TO 110 MPH EF2.........111 TO 135 MPH EF3.........136 TO 165 MPH EF4.........166 TO 200 MPH EF5.........>200 MPH * THE INFORMATION IN THIS STATEMENT IS PRELIMINARY AND SUBJECT TO CHANGE PENDING FINAL REVIEW OF THE EVENTS AND PUBLICATION IN NWS STORM DATA. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE THANKS MONTGOMERY COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT FOR THEIR ASSISTANCE IN CONDUCTING THESE SURVEYS. $$ SMZ/KJP