yoda
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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 105 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 135 PM EDT Fri Apr 26 2019 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of District Of Columbia Delaware Central and Eastern Maryland Southern New Jersey Central and Southeast Pennsylvania Northeast Virginia Coastal Waters * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 135 PM until 900 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Widespread damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will intensify along a cold front this afternoon and spread across the watch area, posing a risk of damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes.
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Tornado Watch till 9pm 40/20 tor probs with the watch
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looks like some rotation down in Albemarle county
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STW for CHO and Albemarle county
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Surprised no watchbox yet... has to be coming shortly
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Probably will be a tornado watch IMO (thinking more like 80/20)... should be partly to mostly cloudy with sunshine for at least another hour looking a sat
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Now this should work lol
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For some reason kamala won't let me post (quote it either) the updated 1630z SPC disco so I have to wait for it to come up on the SPC homepage
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Sat suggests a few hours of sunshine looks like through early this afternoon
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I like this part that I bolded... wonder if it will be 30 wind or 10 tor... probably 30 wind for ENH
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Sat loop in motion for today that i posted at the bottom of the last page can be gotten from here -- http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/goes-16.asp
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seeing some breaks in the clouds here with some filtered sunshine... looks like maybe an hour or 2 of sun? Everything is moving in a NE direction
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Updated Morning AFD from LWX for this afternoon's severe risk:
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Darrow/Gleason were the writers of the 0600 Day 1 OTLK @C.A.P.E. @high risk @Kmlwx
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SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK has 5% hail, 15% wind, and 5% tornado for DC and Baltimore metro regions as well as all of the Eastern Shore and Delaware into SE PA and S NJ
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Severe weather event for April 24-25
yoda replied to Tallis Rockwell's topic in Central/Western States
The one that traveled apparently 150 miles and killed 2? And damaged parts of LT campus? -
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2019 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH CAROLINAS INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind and isolated tornadoes are expected from North Carolina into the Middle Atlantic Friday. Isolated damaging wind gusts are also possible over northern Utah, southeast Idaho, southwest Wyoming and northwest Colorado. Other storms may produce a few strong wind gusts over a portion of the Florida Peninsula. ...Carolinas to the Middle Atlantic region... Southern-stream shortwave trough will deamplify as it becomes absorbed within the base of an amplifying northern-stream trough and move off the Atlantic Seaboard early Friday. The northern-stream trough will continue through the Carolinas and Middle Atlantic region during the day accompanied by a cold front. Modest low-level moisture with dewpoints in the upper 50s to lower 60s F will advect through the warm sector along a 50 kt low-level jet. This in conjunction with some cloud breaks will destabilize the boundary layer with MLCAPE from 500-1000 J/kg possible. Some thunderstorms may be ongoing along the NC coast early Friday in association with the leading shortwave trough. Farther upstream, storms are expected to intensify along and ahead of the cold front as the boundary layer destabilizes from VA into NC and possibly as far south as SC. Strengthening mid-upper wind profiles accompanying the northern-stream shortwave trough will support 40-45 kt effective bulk shear supportive of embedded organized structures with storms developing within the evolving squall line and some supercells with any storms developing ahead of the line. Damaging wind appears to be the main threat, but isolated tornadoes are also possible. Severe threat should end by early evening as the cold front moves offshore. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 5% - Slight Wind: 15% - Slight Hail: 5% - Marginal ..Dial.. 04/25/2019
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SLGT risk issued for DC metro... MRGL pushed back west to around i81 corridor on updated Day 2... damaging winds main threat but also chance for a few tornadoes
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Sounds good... what did you think of the Euro and does the HRDPS have any value for severe weather? @losetoa6 mentioned both in the main disco thread ETA: Good call on the MRGL risk
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@losetoa6 I believe @high risk mentioned in the severe thread about Friday... mainly the 3K NAM I believe. Both the Euro and the HRDPS look intriguing though
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Lol The Reston EF0 tornado in western Fairfax County was about 25 miles NW of me. I consider that close by... but to each his own I guess
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Federalsburg is 22 miles away from Greensboro... or 25 minutes or so
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https://mobile.twitter.com/iembot_lwx/status/1119408944525578240
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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 828 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2019 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Northeastern Washington County in north central Maryland... * Until 845 PM EDT. * At 827 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located over Wayne Heights, or near Waynesboro, moving northeast at 55 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...For those in the direct path of a tornado touchdown, flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Damage to roofs, siding, and windows may occur. Mobile homes may be damaged or destroyed. Tree damage is likely. * Locations impacted include... Smithsburg, Cavetown, Leitersburg and Ringgold.
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BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 821 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2019 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Stafford County in northern Virginia... Eastern Orange County in central Virginia... The northwestern City of Fredericksburg in central Virginia... Southeastern Fauquier County in northern Virginia... Southeastern Culpeper County in northern Virginia... The City of Manassas Park in northern Virginia... Southwestern Prince William County in northern Virginia... The City of Manassas in northern Virginia... North central Spotsylvania County in central Virginia... * Until 900 PM EDT. * At 820 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from 7 miles southeast of Warrenton to 7 miles southeast of Bealeton to 9 miles northwest of Spotsylvania, moving northeast at 30 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... Stafford, Dale City, Fredericksburg, Linton Hall, Montclair, Bull Run, Manassas, Sudley, Manassas Park, New Baltimore, Independent Hill, Nokesville, Catlett, Calverton, Midland, Roseville, Garrisonville, Casanova, Ramoth and Heflin.