yoda

Storm in Oldham and Potter County TX warned for hail to baseball size

Tell us how you really feel Wiz

@mappy and everyone else... did you know this existed? Credit to @HighTechEE for posting about it... seems pretty cool playing around with it

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Tue May 07 2019 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely this afternoon into tonight, particularly across the Texas Panhandle and western Oklahoma. A couple of strong tornadoes, very large hail, and damaging winds will all be possible. ...Southern Plains this afternoon and tonight... An upper low over Arizona, with a preceding cyclonically curved belt (50+ kt at 500 mb) of strengthening southwesterly winds aloft, will spread east-northeasterly toward the southern High Plains through tonight. A leading belt of forcing for ascent, as subtly evidenced per water vapor imagery, appears to be crossing New Mexico late this morning with a related increase in thunderstorms from northeast New Mexico into the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles. A moist environment exists early today across the region, with northward-advecting 12Z subjectively analyzed 12-16C 850 mb dewpoints (mean-mixing ratios >12g/kg) extending from the Lower Rio Grande vicinity of South Texas into the Texas South Plains. Regarding the possibility of an increasing severe risk early this afternoon in vicinity of the surface front, see Mesoscale Discussion 567. Farther south, initial intense surface-based supercell development will become more likely by around mid-afternoon across the Texas Panhandle near and just south of a surface low/dryline and arcing front-related triple point. Pending the disposition of ongoing early-day storms, additional low-level upslope-aided supercellular development could also occur this afternoon across the Raton Meso vicinity of northeast New Mexico and southeast Colorado. Across the Texas Panhandle into the Texas South Plains, 35-40 kt of effective shear in conjunction with very steep mid-level lapse rates and 2500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE will support initial supercells capable of very large hail and some tornado risk. A steady increase in low-level shear/SRH is likely to occur late this afternoon and especially early this evening in the warm sector, with effective SRH likely climbing in excess of 200 m2/s2. The semi-discrete storm mode, at least for a time, along with increasing low-level shear is likely to support an increase in tornado risk by early evening, with the potential for a couple of strong tornadoes. Upscale growth into clusters and eventually a more extensive QLCS is expected into mid/late evening and the overnight hours from northwest Texas into western/central Oklahoma and southern Kansas. Damaging winds will become a more substantial threat will embedded supercells/bowing segments tonight, though large hail will remain possible. A couple of tornadoes and/or severe gusts may also occur with circulations embedded within the QLCS. ..Guyer/Coniglio.. 05/07/2019

hatched wind added in 1630 SPC OTLK in E TX Panhandle and SW OK

Quite the change from the Day 3 SPC OTLK to the new day 2 re ENH risk areas: How it looked at day 3 How it looks now in the new morning day 2 Discussion mentions that the CAMs are showing an MCS to move through during morning hours

Depending on frontal passage timing, LWX in their afternoon AFD seems to think Friday afternoon could be our next chance for some severe weather

I guess that means you can take the cactus out of your avatar

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Flash Flood Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1057 PM EDT Sat May 4 2019 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Flash Flood Warning for... The City of Manassas Park in northern Virginia... West central Prince William County in northern Virginia... The City of Manassas in northern Virginia... * Until 200 AM EDT. * At 1057 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated showers thunderstorms producing heavy rain across the warned area. Rainfall amounts around 1 to 2 inches have occurred already and additional rainfall amounts around 1 to 2 inches are expected within the next hour. Flash flooding is expected to begin shortly. * Some locations that will experience flooding include... Linton Hall, Bull Run, Manassas, Sudley, Manassas Park, Gainesville, Nokesville and Greenwich.

Got some loud thunder and lightning

Desert getting flooded lol

The supercell looks like it will be caught by the line soon

Wouldnt be surprised to see a STW for the line approaching Front Royal

Just about to say that... looks nice

Golf ball sized hail possible in the STW Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 742 PM EDT Fri May 3 2019 WVC003-037-040015- /O.CON.KLWX.SV.W.0068.000000T0000Z-190504T0015Z/ Jefferson WV-Berkeley WV- 742 PM EDT Fri May 3 2019 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 815 PM EDT FOR CENTRAL JEFFERSON AND SOUTHEASTERN BERKELEY COUNTIES... At 741 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Inwood, or near Martinsburg, moving northeast at 20 mph. HAZARD...Golf ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Trained weather spotter reported quarter size hail near Inwood. IMPACT...Expect wind damage to trees and power lines. Hail is large enough to dent and damage vehicles. Some hail damage to roofs, siding, and windows is possible. Locations impacted include... Martinsburg, Shepherdstown, Ranson, Inwood, Kearneysville, Shenandoah Junction, Middleway, Winebrenners Cross, Vanville and Martinsburg Airport. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Remain alert for a possible tornado! Tornadoes can develop quickly from severe thunderstorms. If you spot a tornado go at once into the basement or small central room in a sturdy structure. Prepare immediately for large hail and damaging winds. People outside should move to a shelter, inside a strong building and away from windows. && LAT...LON 3931 7799 3935 7804 3940 7804 3950 7786 3942 7780 3933 7776 TIME...MOT...LOC 2341Z 243DEG 17KT 3938 7798 TORNADO...POSSIBLE HAIL...1.75IN WIND...60MPH

Trained weather spotters reported golf ball sized hail Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 520 PM EDT Fri May 3 2019 VAC043-032145- /O.CON.KLWX.SV.W.0067.000000T0000Z-190503T2145Z/ Clarke VA- 520 PM EDT Fri May 3 2019 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 PM EDT FOR CLARKE COUNTY... At 519 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Berryville, or 7 miles southeast of Millwood Pike, moving east at 15 mph. HAZARD...Golf ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Trained weather spotters. IMPACT...Expect wind damage to trees and power lines. Hail is large enough to dent and damage vehicles. Some hail damage to roofs, siding, and windows is possible. Locations impacted include... Berryville, Boyce, White Post, Millwood, Gaylord, Bethel, Briggs and Stringtown.

Ummm... BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 505 PM EDT Fri May 3 2019 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Southeastern Frederick County in northwestern Virginia... Clarke County in northwestern Virginia... Northeastern Warren County in northwestern Virginia... * Until 545 PM EDT. * At 504 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Stephens City, or near Millwood Pike, moving east at 15 mph. HAZARD...Tennis ball size hail and 70 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Expect wind damage to trees and power lines. Hail is large enough to dent and damage vehicles. Some hail damage to roofs, siding, and windows is possible. * Locations impacted include... Berryville, Boyce, White Post, Millwood, Nineveh, Gaylord, Armel, Bethel, Briggs and Stringtown. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Remain alert for a possible tornado! Tornadoes can develop quickly from severe thunderstorms. If you spot a tornado go at once into the basement or small central room in a sturdy structure. This is a dangerous storm. Prepare immediately for large destructive hail capable of producing significant damage. People outside should move to shelter inside a strong building, and stay away from windows. && LAT...LON 3919 7792 3906 7789 3904 7791 3903 7794 3901 7817 3910 7818 3922 7796 TIME...MOT...LOC 2104Z 249DEG 11KT 3906 7814 TORNADO...POSSIBLE HAIL...2.50IN WIND...70MPH

Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 454 PM EDT Fri May 3 2019 VAC043-069-187-032115- /O.CON.KLWX.SV.W.0066.000000T0000Z-190503T2115Z/ Frederick VA-Clarke VA-Warren VA- 454 PM EDT Fri May 3 2019 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM EDT FOR SOUTHEASTERN FREDERICK...SOUTHWESTERN CLARKE AND NORTHEASTERN WARREN COUNTIES IN NORTHWESTERN VIRGINIA... At 453 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Stephens City, or near Millwood Pike, moving northeast at 15 mph. HAZARD...Two inch hail and 70 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Trained weather spotters reported quarter size hail in Stephens City. IMPACT...Expect wind damage to trees and power lines. Hail is large enough to dent and damage vehicles. Some hail damage to roofs, siding, and windows is possible. Locations impacted include... Stephens City, Boyce, Armel, White Post and Nineveh. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Prepare immediately for large hail and damaging winds. This thunderstorm is capable of producing all types of severe weather including extremely large hail, destructive straight line winds, torrential rain and possibly a tornado. Move quickly to a safe shelter, such as an interior room, a bathroom or closet or basement. && LAT...LON 3900 7824 3908 7825 3915 7808 3910 7805 3899 7806 TIME...MOT...LOC 2053Z 242DEG 14KT 3906 7816 TORNADO...POSSIBLE HAIL...2.00IN WIND...70MPH

Updated SWS at 454pm now says two inch hail

Golf ball sized hail and winds to 70mph on the supercell in NW VA just south of Stephens City

Probably going to have to wait towards dinner time for anything near us IMO

Pity watch just to our west

Sunday could be interesting if the NAM is right... Euro would make it meh

The storm west of MRB looks a lil hooky