yoda

Whoops by SPC today https://mobile.twitter.com/jaredwsmith/status/1129944920385564673

Yes... thundering here and raining

Ellicott City cell on radarscope looks like it has a little bit of a hook

Some decent storms out there today... good amount severe warned

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Sat May 18 2019 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN TX PANHANDLE...NORTHWEST TX...WESTERN/CENTRAL OK...AND FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL KS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards, including strong tornadoes, are expected across portions of the southern Plains on Monday. ...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY... ...Synopsis... Active upper pattern will continue on Monday as one shortwave trough progresses through the Northeast while another ejects through the base of the deep upper trough over the western CONUS late in the period. Subtropical ridging will remain in place over the Gulf of Mexico and Southeast, resulting in the development of strong southwesterly flow aloft ahead of the western CONUS shortwave. This strong flow will remain in place throughout the day, likely increasing to near 100 kt at 500 mb early Tuesday morning. Surface pattern will feature a deepening lee cyclone over the central High Plains with a dryline extending southward across the eastern TX Panhandle and a warm front quickly moving northward through OK. ...Southern Plains... Guidance is in good agreement that the ingredients are in place for a potentially significant severe weather event on Monday. A sharp warm front is expected to move northward throughout the day, starting from an early day position near the River Red and reaching the OK/KS border by 00Z. Air mass south of this warm front will be very moist (i.e. dewpoints in the upper 60s/low 70s) and unstable. Consequently, moderate to strong instability will likely to develop across the eastern TX Panhandle, northwest TX and much of OK, even if strong diurnal heating does not occur. Current expectation is for temperatures in this region to reach the low/mid 70s by late morning/early afternoon with some areas farther east reaching mid/upper 70s. Kinematic environment is even more impressive than the thermodynamic environment. 60-70 kt of southwesterly 500 mb flow will gradually spread eastward/northward across the TX Panhandle and into OK and KS. At same time, a strong and persistent low-level jet will be in place, with 40+ kt at 850 mb throughout the period. Surface winds within the warm sector will likely be southeasterly at 15 to 20 kt. All of these factors result in wind profiles very favorable for discrete supercells capable of all severe hazards, including significant tornadoes. Given that overall large-scale forcing for ascent is minimal throughout much of the day, much of the afternoon and evening activity is currently expected to initiate along the dryline and within the warm sector, with a discrete storm mode favored. As the shortwave ejects out later in the period, a more linear MCS may develop, resulting in a second round of severe thunderstorms Monday night into Tuesday morning. ..Mosier.. 05/18/2019

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0180.html

Here comes the MCS or combo of MCS and supercells https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0664.html Mesoscale Discussion 0664 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 AM CDT Sat May 18 2019 Areas affected...west-central into north Texas...southern Oklahoma Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 180635Z - 180900Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Severe storms are expected to develop and organize across west Texas, and rapidly develop northeastward across northwest Texas into southern Oklahoma. Significant damaging winds and a few tornadoes are possible. DISCUSSION...Substantial moisture and strong instability are already in place across much of TX, with persistent south/southwest 850 mb low-level jet of 40 kt. This will maintain an unstable and relatively uncapped air mass in place as height falls with the upper trough occur throughout the night. While isolated severe storms currently exist over parts of southwest TX, a marked increase in development is expected in the 07-09Z time frame, with upscale organization likely. A few supercells are possible given substantial veering winds with height and strong instability with steep lapse rates aloft, although there is a veer-back signal above 700 mb. Therefore, a mixed storm mode is expected, with a threat of both widespread damaging winds with bows and with a few embedded/brief tornadoes. This threat will accelerate northeast into southern OK by 12-15Z, and toward the Dallas/Ft. Worth area shortly thereafter with a continued severe threat to the east. ..Jewell/Bunting.. 05/18/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

Now that's got to be rare... day 3 moderate risk issued ETA: looks like this would be around the 15th time ever looking at some sites online and trying to search the Google

45% wind in same area as well

That's alright No problem... hope you have a good night

I'm not being a radar warrior... I am just asking a simple question of why they did that. Usually, if it's an emergency situation as it said in the warning with regards to a confirmed large and dangerous tornado on the ground, then it would be at the very start of the warning. I'm just wondering, that's all. Not trying to call out DDC at all

SPC just issued a MD for W into north central TX... 60 percent chance of a STW https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0663.html

According to the SWS at 12:02 from DDC, Radium has a large and violent tornado nearby

Why is DDC putting "this is an emergency situation" at the end of their warning again? Shouldn't it be at the beginning?

Mesoscale Discussion 0661 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0955 PM CDT Fri May 17 2019 Areas affected...far eastern Ford and Edward Counties in Kansas Concerning...Tornado Watch 176... Valid 180255Z - 180400Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 176 continues. SUMMARY...Significant tornado likely ongoing -- now crossing the Ford/Edwards county line in Kansas. DISCUSSION...Latest radar data reveals a very strong low-level circulation just east of the Dodge City WSR-88D -- with rotational velocity in excess of 80 kt in some recent volume scans. This rotational velocity, within the existing high CAPE/high shear environment (resulting in a SIGTOR value of 5-6 across the area) is suggestive of a potentially strong to violent tornado. With this storm having a history of cyclic tornado occurrence, persons across Edwards county and northeast into parts of Pawnee and Stafford counties may be affected in the next half hour, as the storm moves northeastward at 35 kt. ..Goss.. 05/18/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ICT...DDC...

Or not weakened... Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Dodge City KS 1011 PM CDT Fri May 17 2019 KSC047-145-185-180345- /O.CON.KDDC.TO.W.0023.000000T0000Z-190518T0345Z/ Pawnee KS-Stafford KS-Edwards KS- 1011 PM CDT Fri May 17 2019 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1045 PM CDT FOR CENTRAL PAWNEE...SOUTHWESTERN STAFFORD AND CENTRAL EDWARDS COUNTIES... At 1010 PM CDT, a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado was located near Kinsley, moving northeast at 35 mph. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...Damaging tornado. SOURCE...Law enforcement confirmed tornado. IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes, businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction is possible. The tornado will be near... Lewis around 1020 PM CDT. Garfield and Belpre around 1030 PM CDT. Zook around 1035 PM CDT. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... To repeat, a large, extremely dangerous and potentially deadly tornado is on the ground. To protect your life, TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris.

Just me, or does rotation look weaker?

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Dodge City KS 955 PM CDT Fri May 17 2019 The National Weather Service in Dodge City has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Central Pawnee County in south central Kansas... Southwestern Stafford County in south central Kansas... Edwards County in south central Kansas... * Until 1045 PM CDT. * At 955 PM CDT, a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado was located near Offerle, moving northeast at 35 mph. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...Damaging tornado. SOURCE...Law enforcement confirmed tornado. IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes, businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction is possible. * The tornado will be near... Kinsley around 1010 PM CDT. Lewis around 1025 PM CDT. Garfield and Belpre around 1035 PM CDT. Zook around 1045 PM CDT. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... To repeat, a large, extremely dangerous and potentially deadly tornado is on the ground. To protect your life, TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris.

Hopefully residents in Kinsley are in their shelters

Not sure why DDC is putting "this is an emergency situation" at the very end of the TW?

Multiple reports of a large tornado just N of Bloom

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Dodge City KS 912 PM CDT Fri May 17 2019 The National Weather Service in Dodge City has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Eastern Ford County in southwestern Kansas... West central Edwards County in south central Kansas... * Until 945 PM CDT. * At 911 PM CDT, a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado was located 7 miles southwest of Ford, moving northeast at 40 mph. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...Damaging tornado. SOURCE...Law enforcement confirmed tornado. IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes, businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction is possible. * The tornado will be near... Ford around 920 PM CDT. Spearville and Windhorst around 930 PM CDT. Bellefont around 935 PM CDT. Offerle around 940 PM CDT. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... To repeat, a large, extremely dangerous and potentially deadly tornado is on the ground. To protect your life, TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. Tornadoes are extremely difficult to see and confirm at night. Do not wait to see or hear the tornado. TAKE COVER NOW! A large and extremely dangerous tornado is on the ground. Take immediate tornado precautions. This is an emergency situation.

Basically a TE was issued without the wording by DDC just now... read the last paragraph of the warning I posted below

Looks like DDC will be missed just to the SE by that TW'd storm ETA: Confirmed tornado by Minneola