yoda
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Everything posted by yoda
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Another TW from Norman issued and one from Tulsa
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18z NAM soundings at 21z THUR and 00z FRI are pretty impressive across the region
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I think it will continue to look that way on sim radar until the MCS that LWX mentioned in the afternoon AFD develops
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And its issued till 11pm CDT for NE OK/SW MO/SE KS
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PDS Watch within next hour looks like reading the discussion
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Its already out... it made a somewhat SW move... but the PDS watch part in TX sits in the SLGT risk
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LWX's afternoon AFD re tomorrow from 2:30PM
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SPC Disco from the 1730 OTLK
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1730 SPC OTLK moves the SLGT and ENH risk south some compared to earlier Day 2
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15% tornado introduced along with 45% hail
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You might get a few more answers (possibly quicker) in this forum -- https://www.americanwx.com/bb/forum/28-lakesohio-valley/ It includes WI and we have a good amount of posters who live in WI who post there. Just so that you don't have to wait forever in here for a response because sometimes it can take a while in here
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I'm liking Thursday based off the NAM/NAM NEST/SREFs... I see the slight risk moving south some on the new Day 2 and an ENH in PA.
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00z NAM soundings at 21z THUR and 00z FRI look tasty
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Lol there could be a high risk here and @Eskimo Joe would find a way to meh it
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Heavy heavy dry blow?
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LWX afternoon AFD on Thursday afternoon threat:
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I wonder if that action on sim reflectivity in SW PA/W MD would reach us in the few hours after the 12z NAM NEST run ends
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12z NAM soundings look good as well IMO, esp between 21z THUR and 03z FRI
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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1140 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019 The National Weather Service in Lubbock Texas has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Eastern Kent County in northwestern Texas... Southeastern Dickens County in northwestern Texas... Southern King County in northwestern Texas... Stonewall County in northwestern Texas... * Until 1230 AM CDT. * At 1139 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from 6 miles west of Jayton to 8 miles northwest of Rotan, moving northeast at 55 mph. These are very dangerous storms. HAZARD...80 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be heavily damaged. Expect considerable damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles. Extensive tree damage and power outages are likely. * Locations impacted include... Aspermont, Jayton, Girard, Peacock, Old Glory and Swenson.
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Meanwhile... a flash flood emergency was just issued by NWS Tulsa BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Flash Flood Warning National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1114 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019 ...FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR HOMINY...PAWNEE...BARTLESVILLE SKIATOOK...DEWEY... The National Weather Service in Tulsa has issued a * Flash Flood Warning for... Southern Osage County in northeastern Oklahoma... Washington County in northeastern Oklahoma... Pawnee County in northeastern Oklahoma... Northwestern Tulsa County in northeastern Oklahoma... * Until 515 AM CDT Tuesday. * At 1110 PM CDT, emergency management reported numerous closed roadways, water rescues, and homes being evacuated. Four to six inches of rain have fallen, and additional heavy rainfall will move into the area soon. Widespread flash flooding is already occurring. THIS IS A FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR HOMINY...PAWNEE...BARTLESVILLE SKIATOOK...AND DEWEY. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. SEEK HIGHER GROUND NOW! * Some locations that may experience flooding include... Bartlesville... Pawhuska... Pawnee... Skiatook... Hominy... Dewey... Cleveland... Fairfax... Barnsdall... Ramona... Wynona... Ochelata... Jennings... Ralston... Avant... Westport... Vera... Osage... Hallett... Blackburn... Additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are possible in the warned area.
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https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0715.html Mesoscale Discussion 0715 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1106 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019 Areas affected...far northeast Oklahoma...far northwest Arkansas...far southwest Missouri Concerning...Tornado Watch 200... Valid 210406Z - 210430Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 200 continues. SUMMARY...Significant tornado potential exists with a storm in Delaware County, Oklahoma. DISCUSSION...A supercell initially over Mayes/Cherokee Counties in Oklahoma favorably interacted with an outflow boundary and generated an intense mesocyclone, with experimental guidance suggestive of a significant tornado in the area. Strong rotation continues on radar, and significant tornado potential will exist with this storm as it migrates east-northeastward through Delaware County, OK; Benton County, AR; and McDonald County, MO through 05Z as long as it can remain rooted near the outflow boundary. ..Cook.. 05/21/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...
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Looks like it made a right turn
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TE dropped in latest update from Tulsa on storm, but still includes PDS wording for large and extremely dangerous tornado 3 N Twin Oaks
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Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1049 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019 OKC021-041-210430- /O.CON.KTSA.TO.W.0057.000000T0000Z-190521T0430Z/ Delaware OK-Cherokee OK- 1049 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019 ...TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR LEACH... ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1130 PM CDT FOR SOUTHERN DELAWARE AND NORTHEASTERN CHEROKEE COUNTIES... At 1048 PM CDT, a confirmed large and destructive tornado was located near Leach, moving northeast at 45 mph. TORNADO EMERGENCY for Leach! This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...Deadly tornado. SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado. IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes, businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction is possible. Locations in or near the path include... Jay... Colcord... Kansas... Oaks... Leach... Twin Oaks... Dodge... Lake Eucha State Park... PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... To repeat, a large, extremely dangerous, and potentially deadly tornado is on the ground. To protect your life, TAKE COVER NOW! Move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If in a mobile home, a vehicle or outdoors, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris.
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Oh shit TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR LEACH
